VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JULY 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.12 0.78 0.76 0.99 0.99 18.3 18.5 48 -0.28 -0.23 1.28 1.27 0.97 0.97 27.8 27.8 72 -0.34 -0.28 1.81 1.82 0.94 0.94 36.1 36.2 96 -0.31 2.50 0.88 44.4 120 -0.34 3.20 0.80 51.7 144 -0.36 3.85 0.72 57.9 168 -0.39 4.53 0.61 63.4 192 -0.40 5.07 0.51 67.5 216 -0.38 5.53 0.40 71.2 240 -0.35 5.79 0.34 73.4 264 -0.33 5.98 0.30 74.3 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.39 5.60 5.78 1.00 1.00 13.2 13.2 48 0.45 0.82 10.84 11.20 0.98 0.98 22.8 22.8 72 1.10 1.59 17.64 17.95 0.96 0.96 32.1 32.5 96 2.48 26.17 0.91 41.7 120 3.28 34.43 0.84 49.6 144 4.08 42.34 0.76 56.7 168 4.73 50.46 0.65 62.8 192 5.63 58.23 0.53 68.0 216 6.58 65.63 0.40 72.8 240 7.36 70.93 0.30 76.2 264 8.04 74.18 0.24 78.1 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.63 8.47 8.69 1.00 1.00 12.7 12.8 48 0.65 0.96 16.94 17.18 0.98 0.98 22.3 22.4 72 1.18 1.62 27.56 27.98 0.96 0.95 31.7 32.1 96 2.53 40.50 0.90 41.2 120 3.66 53.56 0.83 49.1 144 4.76 66.44 0.74 56.1 168 5.80 78.05 0.63 61.8 192 7.25 88.85 0.52 66.6 216 8.47 98.93 0.40 70.5 240 9.25 107.27 0.30 73.5 264 10.20 112.87 0.24 75.9 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.13 0.44 0.45 0.98 0.98 48 0.20 0.20 0.77 0.77 0.95 0.95 72 0.25 0.25 1.10 1.11 0.90 0.90 96 0.30 1.44 0.83 120 0.34 1.76 0.75 144 0.37 2.05 0.65 168 0.40 2.30 0.55 192 0.43 2.54 0.45 216 0.46 2.75 0.35 240 0.45 2.93 0.26 264 0.47 3.04 0.20 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.17 0.63 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 -0.24 -0.26 1.07 1.08 0.93 0.93 72 -0.29 -0.31 1.50 1.51 0.87 0.87 96 -0.33 1.90 0.79 120 -0.32 2.23 0.71 144 -0.32 2.49 0.63 168 -0.31 2.77 0.54 192 -0.30 3.01 0.46 216 -0.30 3.22 0.37 240 -0.30 3.32 0.33 264 -0.29 3.41 0.29 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.16 1.86 1.85 48 -0.25 -0.27 3.19 3.19 72 -0.33 -0.34 4.50 4.56 96 -0.39 5.86 120 -0.42 7.07 144 -0.40 8.17 168 -0.35 9.16 192 -0.32 10.07 216 -0.32 10.82 240 -0.32 11.34 264 -0.31 11.67 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.16 3.35 3.36 48 -0.20 -0.27 5.73 5.72 72 -0.27 -0.33 8.05 8.15 96 -0.36 10.44 120 -0.36 12.62 144 -0.34 14.58 168 -0.33 16.11 192 -0.29 17.50 216 -0.27 18.57 240 -0.29 19.28 264 -0.30 20.06 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.23 2.82 2.98 0.97 0.97 21.4 22.0 48 0.65 0.44 4.22 4.52 0.94 0.93 28.3 29.0 72 0.71 0.51 5.22 5.52 0.90 0.90 33.0 33.7 96 0.53 6.28 0.87 37.4 120 0.70 7.18 0.83 40.7 144 0.79 8.33 0.77 43.8 168 0.79 9.29 0.71 46.1 192 0.73 10.24 0.67 47.9 216 0.64 11.00 0.62 49.6 240 0.20 11.56 0.57 51.5 264 -0.26 12.07 0.53 53.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.90 4.10 4.35 0.98 0.98 21.7 21.7 48 -2.54 -3.04 6.66 7.14 0.95 0.94 29.4 29.6 72 -4.08 -4.39 8.72 9.13 0.92 0.91 34.4 34.8 96 -5.50 10.69 0.88 38.7 120 -6.22 12.23 0.85 42.2 144 -6.72 13.84 0.80 45.3 168 -7.19 15.54 0.74 48.0 192 -7.40 17.43 0.67 51.0 216 -7.36 18.98 0.60 53.5 240 -7.61 19.87 0.56 55.4 264 -7.73 20.80 0.52 57.5 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 0.38 0.39 0.97 0.96 48 -0.09 -0.09 0.58 0.58 0.92 0.92 72 -0.11 -0.11 0.71 0.73 0.87 0.88 96 -0.12 0.83 0.84 120 -0.13 0.93 0.79 144 -0.14 1.05 0.74 168 -0.16 1.16 0.69 192 -0.16 1.27 0.63 216 -0.17 1.35 0.58 240 -0.18 1.43 0.55 264 -0.18 1.50 0.50 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.28 0.41 0.43 0.92 0.91 48 -0.42 -0.46 0.63 0.66 0.83 0.81 72 -0.50 -0.54 0.77 0.80 0.74 0.71 96 -0.60 0.89 0.64 120 -0.64 0.95 0.58 144 -0.67 1.00 0.53 168 -0.69 1.05 0.48 192 -0.70 1.08 0.44 216 -0.69 1.11 0.39 240 -0.68 1.13 0.35 264 -0.66 1.14 0.32 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.06 1.37 1.36 48 -0.10 -0.08 2.04 2.02 72 -0.11 -0.10 2.53 2.51 96 -0.12 2.92 120 -0.11 3.31 144 -0.11 3.66 168 -0.07 3.94 192 0.00 4.21 216 0.03 4.44 240 0.02 4.66 264 0.01 4.88 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.23 3.00 2.99 48 -0.20 -0.32 4.46 4.50 72 -0.20 -0.31 5.50 5.55 96 -0.27 6.36 120 -0.28 6.99 144 -0.36 7.57 168 -0.44 8.16 192 -0.45 8.79 216 -0.44 9.44 240 -0.39 9.99 264 -0.32 10.50 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.07 1.10 1.09 1.00 1.00 13.2 13.1 48 0.13 0.11 2.21 2.21 0.98 0.98 23.7 23.7 72 0.15 0.12 3.44 3.40 0.96 0.96 32.6 32.5 96 0.13 4.79 0.92 40.6 120 0.10 6.33 0.86 47.6 144 0.10 7.76 0.78 53.8 168 0.12 9.11 0.69 59.1 192 0.12 10.38 0.60 64.1 216 0.09 11.37 0.51 66.7 240 0.10 12.33 0.44 69.0 264 0.07 13.06 0.37 71.3 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.65 8.63 8.60 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.5 48 -0.89 -1.16 18.34 18.18 0.99 0.99 17.9 17.7 72 -1.15 -1.54 29.52 29.34 0.97 0.97 25.5 25.3 96 -1.83 42.65 0.94 32.6 120 -2.07 58.26 0.88 39.6 144 -2.18 74.45 0.80 46.0 168 -2.19 89.50 0.71 51.3 192 -2.57 103.75 0.61 55.9 216 -3.14 116.92 0.51 59.8 240 -3.41 126.74 0.42 63.0 264 -3.95 135.29 0.33 65.6 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.72 11.16 10.86 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.5 48 -1.18 -1.36 22.91 22.48 0.99 0.99 13.7 13.5 72 -1.55 -1.75 36.77 36.48 0.97 0.97 19.8 19.6 96 -1.84 53.02 0.94 25.7 120 -1.64 71.93 0.89 31.9 144 -1.65 94.27 0.82 38.3 168 -2.36 115.78 0.73 43.6 192 -3.20 136.41 0.62 48.2 216 -3.63 154.04 0.52 52.2 240 -3.93 167.32 0.42 55.8 264 -5.23 177.84 0.34 58.2 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.54 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.04 1.01 1.00 0.97 0.97 72 -0.05 -0.05 1.50 1.49 0.93 0.93 96 -0.04 1.98 0.88 120 -0.02 2.46 0.82 144 0.00 3.03 0.73 168 -0.02 3.58 0.61 192 -0.06 4.06 0.51 216 -0.06 4.41 0.42 240 -0.06 4.72 0.33 264 -0.09 4.90 0.26 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 0.61 0.61 0.98 0.98 48 -0.06 -0.06 1.06 1.06 0.95 0.95 72 -0.07 -0.07 1.49 1.48 0.89 0.89 96 -0.06 1.91 0.82 120 -0.07 2.35 0.73 144 -0.10 2.70 0.64 168 -0.17 3.05 0.54 192 -0.16 3.35 0.45 216 -0.17 3.58 0.37 240 -0.20 3.76 0.31 264 -0.21 3.93 0.26 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.01 2.48 2.45 48 0.06 0.06 4.66 4.62 72 0.09 0.07 6.71 6.64 96 0.09 8.68 120 0.13 10.71 144 0.12 12.68 168 0.07 14.35 192 0.07 15.76 216 0.09 17.22 240 0.02 18.17 264 0.03 19.01 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.04 3.23 3.20 48 -0.08 -0.10 5.75 5.72 72 -0.12 -0.12 8.29 8.21 96 -0.12 10.88 120 -0.14 13.66 144 -0.22 16.60 168 -0.26 19.25 192 -0.20 21.70 216 -0.24 23.84 240 -0.38 25.58 264 -0.49 26.96 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.80 -3.02 8.25 8.05 0.96 0.96 48 -3.79 -2.73 10.54 9.92 0.96 0.97 72 -3.92 -3.07 13.40 13.45 0.95 0.95 96 -4.73 18.15 0.91 120 -5.38 23.35 0.87 144 -4.74 27.75 0.83 168 -2.53 33.18 0.74 192 0.47 37.64 0.65 216 2.81 40.12 0.60 240 3.23 41.74 0.60 264 4.51 40.49 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.04 -2.86 9.27 8.84 0.96 0.96 48 -0.33 -0.32 12.28 11.71 0.96 0.97 72 1.50 0.97 16.91 16.55 0.94 0.95 96 0.06 22.05 0.92 120 -0.08 29.39 0.89 144 1.82 35.99 0.83 168 5.25 42.76 0.78 192 9.95 50.83 0.71 216 13.38 56.41 0.65 240 14.38 59.47 0.63 264 16.91 59.94 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.96 -1.97 13.26 12.51 0.97 0.97 48 1.30 1.44 18.76 18.32 0.97 0.97 72 4.35 3.50 26.69 27.76 0.95 0.95 96 2.45 37.16 0.93 120 3.33 49.64 0.90 144 6.63 60.95 0.84 168 10.95 72.38 0.78 192 17.44 86.22 0.70 216 20.20 95.63 0.63 240 20.96 100.06 0.60 264 23.96 103.02 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.50 1.49 1.63 0.84 0.84 48 -0.04 -0.40 1.67 1.72 0.88 0.87 72 0.05 -0.30 1.80 1.83 0.87 0.87 96 -0.26 2.08 0.84 120 -0.22 2.37 0.80 144 -0.16 2.59 0.78 168 -0.04 2.89 0.73 192 0.10 3.22 0.65 216 0.13 3.39 0.60 240 0.22 3.57 0.57 264 0.47 3.84 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.35 0.87 0.93 0.84 0.82 48 0.46 0.51 1.08 1.15 0.86 0.85 72 0.56 0.59 1.32 1.40 0.85 0.83 96 0.61 1.58 0.82 120 0.66 1.82 0.80 144 0.71 2.02 0.76 168 0.71 2.24 0.70 192 0.76 2.49 0.61 216 0.81 2.72 0.55 240 0.81 2.77 0.55 264 0.88 2.85 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.01 1.00 0.93 0.83 0.86 48 0.03 0.00 1.22 1.15 0.84 0.86 72 0.10 0.03 1.45 1.37 0.82 0.84 96 0.07 1.62 0.82 120 0.18 1.93 0.78 144 0.25 2.16 0.72 168 0.35 2.37 0.67 192 0.47 2.62 0.61 216 0.45 2.74 0.58 240 0.45 2.87 0.56 264 0.40 2.97 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -1.13 3.63 3.92 48 -0.60 -1.16 4.09 4.36 72 -0.57 -1.17 4.54 4.92 96 -1.23 5.60 120 -1.24 6.24 144 -1.23 6.72 168 -1.27 7.60 192 -1.50 8.03 216 -1.62 8.26 240 -1.56 8.69 264 -1.50 8.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.81 3.97 3.92 48 -1.04 -0.87 4.62 4.59 72 -1.07 -0.94 5.36 5.50 96 -0.99 6.44 120 -0.96 7.41 144 -0.78 8.37 168 -0.70 9.20 192 -0.50 10.10 216 -0.54 10.62 240 -0.40 11.22 264 -0.52 11.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.91 -1.07 6.20 5.94 48 -1.22 -1.30 7.77 7.42 72 -1.30 -1.45 9.42 9.35 96 -1.39 11.27 120 -1.23 13.21 144 -1.10 15.47 168 -1.14 17.16 192 -0.79 18.62 216 -0.85 19.52 240 -0.67 20.24 264 -1.03 20.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.41 -5.77 9.40 9.21 0.95 0.96 48 -9.51 -9.46 12.74 12.97 0.96 0.96 72 -9.29 -9.64 14.84 15.42 0.95 0.95 96 -5.69 17.14 0.93 120 -0.84 20.27 0.89 144 1.42 25.52 0.85 168 -1.35 33.99 0.73 192 -6.43 39.38 0.58 216 -6.14 44.43 0.46 240 0.10 42.93 0.47 264 1.28 45.01 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.60 -4.72 10.79 9.59 0.97 0.97 48 -9.50 -8.17 14.97 13.54 0.97 0.98 72 -8.00 -7.15 18.01 17.07 0.96 0.96 96 -1.31 23.30 0.95 120 5.02 32.92 0.92 144 9.61 46.02 0.85 168 9.47 58.33 0.77 192 3.04 66.79 0.63 216 0.87 75.04 0.50 240 7.95 79.42 0.48 264 14.94 81.85 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.07 -3.13 13.13 13.34 0.98 0.97 48 -8.64 -7.01 20.00 18.81 0.98 0.98 72 -7.72 -6.37 27.23 26.58 0.96 0.96 96 -1.11 36.70 0.95 120 5.16 54.18 0.90 144 10.05 74.85 0.84 168 12.68 95.25 0.75 192 7.12 107.91 0.62 216 -0.49 119.21 0.51 240 6.33 132.72 0.44 264 22.72 134.50 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 0.19 1.17 1.10 0.87 0.87 48 -0.41 0.12 1.32 1.19 0.89 0.89 72 -0.34 0.17 1.42 1.34 0.90 0.90 96 0.27 1.60 0.89 120 0.42 2.01 0.86 144 0.65 2.54 0.80 168 0.88 3.15 0.73 192 0.74 3.52 0.66 216 0.50 3.82 0.51 240 0.56 4.25 0.43 264 1.03 4.47 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.13 0.79 0.76 0.92 0.91 48 0.21 0.18 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.92 72 0.28 0.26 1.18 1.16 0.90 0.90 96 0.36 1.47 0.88 120 0.44 1.83 0.82 144 0.51 2.31 0.75 168 0.62 2.70 0.68 192 0.62 2.97 0.57 216 0.42 3.16 0.48 240 0.46 3.52 0.44 264 0.82 3.46 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.30 1.06 1.04 0.89 0.89 48 0.22 0.25 1.25 1.26 0.88 0.87 72 0.13 0.13 1.51 1.49 0.85 0.85 96 0.09 1.83 0.81 120 0.02 2.09 0.78 144 -0.03 2.48 0.66 168 0.08 2.81 0.62 192 0.11 2.96 0.59 216 -0.16 3.19 0.55 240 -0.22 3.26 0.57 264 0.08 3.38 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.38 3.43 3.37 48 -0.82 -0.46 3.75 3.67 72 -0.93 -0.58 4.13 4.10 96 -0.65 4.60 120 -0.82 5.05 144 -0.85 5.67 168 -0.71 6.76 192 -0.37 7.33 216 -0.44 7.83 240 -0.86 7.78 264 -0.80 7.83 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.29 3.33 3.19 48 -0.40 -0.35 3.94 3.81 72 -0.41 -0.46 4.78 4.66 96 -0.46 5.96 120 -0.57 7.08 144 -0.61 8.70 168 -0.56 10.47 192 -0.09 11.89 216 -0.22 12.97 240 -0.78 13.15 264 -0.63 13.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.66 5.08 4.82 48 -0.60 -0.70 6.67 6.12 72 -0.55 -0.81 8.58 8.25 96 -0.88 10.66 120 -1.31 13.09 144 -1.26 15.96 168 -1.23 19.19 192 -0.56 21.66 216 -0.67 22.66 240 -1.07 23.57 264 -1.10 25.02 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.62 -2.53 9.75 9.65 0.94 0.93 48 -3.46 -2.96 13.07 12.59 0.94 0.93 72 -4.42 -3.32 16.90 15.79 0.92 0.92 96 -5.08 20.09 0.89 120 -7.58 25.41 0.84 144 -9.77 29.79 0.81 168 -11.92 33.79 0.77 192 -12.58 36.66 0.73 216 -11.94 37.94 0.72 240 -13.19 41.40 0.68 264 -13.94 45.83 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 121 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.52 -0.90 12.09 11.56 0.92 0.92 48 -0.92 1.28 15.51 15.14 0.93 0.93 72 0.24 3.06 19.92 19.54 0.92 0.92 96 3.04 24.55 0.89 120 2.07 31.16 0.84 144 1.55 36.50 0.80 168 0.69 42.15 0.75 192 0.81 45.77 0.71 216 1.55 48.67 0.69 240 0.66 51.78 0.65 264 -0.06 55.74 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.08 -1.44 19.30 18.97 0.93 0.93 48 -1.20 2.06 26.00 25.35 0.93 0.93 72 1.26 5.12 33.93 34.28 0.92 0.92 96 5.68 42.95 0.89 120 6.40 54.25 0.84 144 7.38 63.30 0.81 168 6.40 72.22 0.77 192 6.16 78.53 0.74 216 6.69 82.95 0.70 240 5.37 89.10 0.65 264 5.42 94.71 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.16 1.59 1.57 0.77 0.80 48 0.04 0.05 1.75 1.75 0.82 0.83 72 0.23 0.25 1.99 1.98 0.80 0.81 96 0.43 2.22 0.79 120 0.62 2.55 0.76 144 0.76 2.89 0.71 168 0.92 3.26 0.65 192 1.04 3.51 0.61 216 1.13 3.68 0.58 240 1.25 3.87 0.55 264 1.33 4.10 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 138 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.17 0.94 0.97 0.81 0.82 48 0.22 0.29 1.13 1.16 0.85 0.85 72 0.30 0.35 1.34 1.38 0.84 0.84 96 0.40 1.58 0.82 120 0.47 1.82 0.80 144 0.54 2.02 0.78 168 0.58 2.18 0.76 192 0.55 2.31 0.72 216 0.52 2.45 0.69 240 0.50 2.58 0.65 264 0.50 2.69 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 160 12 UTC = 157 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.19 1.13 1.16 0.85 0.83 48 -0.19 -0.19 1.42 1.43 0.85 0.84 72 -0.12 -0.12 1.68 1.66 0.83 0.84 96 -0.08 1.89 0.82 120 -0.01 2.10 0.80 144 0.01 2.30 0.78 168 0.04 2.55 0.75 192 0.04 2.69 0.72 216 0.00 2.84 0.67 240 -0.03 2.98 0.63 264 0.02 3.21 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 158 12 UTC = 156 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -0.79 3.72 3.67 48 -0.99 -0.79 4.30 4.20 72 -0.96 -0.77 4.97 4.88 96 -0.82 5.51 120 -0.89 6.21 144 -0.86 6.80 168 -0.84 7.18 192 -0.78 7.56 216 -0.78 7.79 240 -0.77 8.00 264 -0.72 8.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.01 -0.99 3.76 3.86 48 -1.16 -1.19 4.74 4.81 72 -1.22 -1.23 5.85 5.93 96 -1.31 6.73 120 -1.44 7.62 144 -1.39 8.40 168 -1.34 9.06 192 -1.29 9.69 216 -1.27 9.89 240 -1.29 10.24 264 -1.35 10.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 155 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.71 5.90 5.92 48 -1.14 -0.95 8.26 8.24 72 -1.34 -1.21 10.45 10.34 96 -1.15 12.27 120 -1.17 13.97 144 -1.04 15.42 168 -0.94 16.53 192 -0.98 17.51 216 -1.03 18.22 240 -0.96 18.85 264 -1.00 19.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 156 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.05 -2.22 6.38 7.87 0.98 0.99 48 0.75 0.39 8.60 12.88 0.98 0.98 72 2.26 2.04 11.51 17.63 0.98 0.96 96 3.88 23.07 0.95 120 6.81 32.93 0.93 144 8.58 36.50 0.90 168 6.71 48.67 0.81 192 10.46 58.42 0.72 216 18.89 66.44 0.65 240 24.77 71.41 0.58 264 23.25 75.06 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.01 -8.92 11.20 13.67 0.98 0.98 48 -5.72 -6.44 13.37 18.07 0.98 0.97 72 -4.52 -4.42 16.91 22.83 0.98 0.97 96 -2.77 28.76 0.95 120 0.17 42.12 0.92 144 1.07 50.73 0.92 168 -6.39 66.56 0.86 192 -2.60 80.13 0.77 216 6.14 88.16 0.73 240 16.52 102.05 0.61 264 9.21 104.11 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.23 -10.24 12.91 17.11 0.99 0.98 48 -6.33 -8.16 16.97 22.29 0.99 0.97 72 -5.70 -5.44 23.29 30.71 0.98 0.97 96 -3.74 38.89 0.94 120 0.65 53.37 0.94 144 -1.03 67.42 0.93 168 -12.66 84.39 0.86 192 -10.20 103.72 0.81 216 -0.29 115.85 0.78 240 14.58 138.57 0.62 264 1.12 140.92 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.55 1.32 1.17 0.79 0.81 48 -0.61 -0.56 1.47 1.31 0.85 0.85 72 -0.63 -0.59 1.58 1.53 0.86 0.88 96 -0.66 1.74 0.87 120 -0.74 2.01 0.85 144 -0.77 2.16 0.83 168 -0.91 2.79 0.77 192 -1.05 2.90 0.69 216 -1.01 3.27 0.58 240 -0.77 3.29 0.54 264 -0.90 3.32 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 -0.01 1.00 0.88 0.90 0.93 48 0.12 -0.01 1.14 1.08 0.91 0.91 72 0.16 0.03 1.36 1.46 0.90 0.91 96 0.13 1.67 0.88 120 0.19 2.07 0.88 144 0.15 2.43 0.80 168 -0.21 3.14 0.72 192 -0.13 3.46 0.69 216 -0.07 3.58 0.68 240 0.12 3.47 0.65 264 -0.20 3.55 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.16 0.97 1.02 0.93 0.90 48 -0.18 -0.22 1.18 1.33 0.93 0.93 72 -0.28 -0.22 1.39 1.52 0.91 0.91 96 -0.33 1.74 0.91 120 -0.42 2.19 0.85 144 -0.56 2.46 0.83 168 -0.70 2.92 0.72 192 -0.81 3.08 0.75 216 -0.96 3.15 0.76 240 -0.88 3.21 0.71 264 -0.86 3.54 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.58 3.84 3.86 48 -0.66 -0.53 4.31 4.53 72 -0.55 -0.31 4.74 5.30 96 -0.33 6.06 120 -0.57 6.97 144 -0.60 8.01 168 -0.31 9.60 192 -0.41 10.10 216 -0.33 10.75 240 -0.79 11.07 264 -0.73 11.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -1.03 4.58 4.55 48 -0.64 -0.89 5.23 5.65 72 -0.66 -0.99 6.32 6.76 96 -1.01 7.95 120 -0.96 9.56 144 -1.07 11.78 168 -1.36 13.81 192 -1.42 14.87 216 -1.37 16.00 240 -1.98 16.11 264 -2.20 17.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.45 5.09 5.22 48 -1.17 -0.67 6.38 6.48 72 -1.62 -1.13 7.85 8.07 96 -1.36 9.96 120 -1.59 11.55 144 -1.58 14.75 168 -1.87 17.90 192 -2.09 20.30 216 -2.21 21.85 240 -2.82 23.81 264 -2.53 24.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.78 -3.78 8.27 8.58 0.71 0.70 48 -3.42 -3.29 8.59 8.82 0.79 0.78 72 -3.24 -3.63 8.99 9.56 0.82 0.78 96 -3.90 10.10 0.76 120 -3.55 10.59 0.73 144 -3.81 11.46 0.70 168 -4.00 12.40 0.64 192 -3.61 13.27 0.62 216 -2.96 13.57 0.61 240 -3.28 14.18 0.57 264 -3.79 14.92 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.02 -5.64 11.06 11.32 0.60 0.57 48 -5.68 -5.25 11.39 11.75 0.73 0.69 72 -5.75 -5.71 11.87 12.50 0.77 0.71 96 -6.32 12.96 0.69 120 -6.50 13.41 0.67 144 -7.20 14.35 0.65 168 -7.67 15.20 0.61 192 -7.77 15.95 0.58 216 -7.42 16.69 0.55 240 -7.82 17.49 0.51 264 -8.38 18.13 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.25 -8.33 14.54 14.79 0.58 0.60 48 -9.55 -9.92 15.98 16.52 0.69 0.71 72 -10.55 -11.44 17.31 18.21 0.72 0.71 96 -12.83 19.38 0.68 120 -13.48 20.28 0.68 144 -14.27 21.27 0.66 168 -14.91 22.57 0.64 192 -15.12 23.92 0.60 216 -14.59 24.97 0.56 240 -14.88 25.62 0.54 264 -15.19 26.21 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.42 1.11 1.09 0.43 0.43 48 -0.42 -0.43 1.17 1.15 0.51 0.49 72 -0.43 -0.43 1.20 1.18 0.57 0.50 96 -0.44 1.20 0.54 120 -0.45 1.24 0.55 144 -0.46 1.27 0.57 168 -0.47 1.34 0.55 192 -0.51 1.40 0.53 216 -0.55 1.49 0.51 240 -0.60 1.57 0.49 264 -0.63 1.63 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.13 0.79 0.79 0.56 0.55 48 0.12 0.12 0.82 0.83 0.64 0.60 72 0.12 0.12 0.86 0.87 0.64 0.61 96 0.10 0.91 0.60 120 0.05 0.93 0.59 144 -0.01 0.97 0.56 168 -0.02 1.01 0.51 192 -0.04 1.08 0.48 216 -0.04 1.14 0.45 240 -0.03 1.15 0.44 264 -0.02 1.17 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.40 0.66 0.75 0.59 0.58 48 -0.47 -0.57 0.80 0.89 0.64 0.65 72 -0.53 -0.66 0.87 0.99 0.65 0.67 96 -0.72 1.05 0.66 120 -0.75 1.09 0.65 144 -0.77 1.14 0.64 168 -0.79 1.18 0.63 192 -0.79 1.22 0.61 216 -0.78 1.25 0.58 240 -0.77 1.29 0.53 264 -0.76 1.30 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.44 3.19 3.23 48 -0.44 -0.47 3.48 3.51 72 -0.45 -0.50 3.71 3.74 96 -0.51 3.94 120 -0.57 4.13 144 -0.61 4.30 168 -0.61 4.59 192 -0.57 4.84 216 -0.54 5.01 240 -0.52 5.23 264 -0.45 5.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -0.96 3.68 3.66 48 -1.11 -1.08 3.94 4.02 72 -1.20 -1.16 4.28 4.34 96 -1.27 4.60 120 -1.29 4.96 144 -1.35 5.30 168 -1.49 5.65 192 -1.52 6.15 216 -1.57 6.61 240 -1.66 6.86 264 -1.73 7.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.75 4.70 4.68 48 -0.86 -0.69 5.68 5.55 72 -0.96 -0.79 6.46 6.43 96 -0.77 7.07 120 -0.66 7.71 144 -0.64 8.17 168 -0.62 8.68 192 -0.52 9.56 216 -0.59 10.07 240 -0.65 10.49 264 -0.65 10.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.55 -4.54 9.82 9.94 0.95 0.95 48 -5.94 -5.89 13.03 13.06 0.96 0.96 72 -6.14 -5.97 16.37 16.25 0.95 0.95 96 -5.87 20.60 0.92 120 -5.94 25.73 0.89 144 -6.04 31.24 0.84 168 -6.71 36.94 0.78 192 -7.23 41.32 0.72 216 -6.54 45.42 0.66 240 -5.41 48.02 0.63 264 -4.97 50.29 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 398 12 UTC = 393 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.91 -3.29 11.69 11.12 0.96 0.96 48 -3.42 -2.77 15.21 14.83 0.96 0.96 72 -1.90 -1.28 19.97 19.45 0.95 0.95 96 0.08 26.07 0.93 120 0.97 34.18 0.90 144 2.28 42.95 0.85 168 2.83 51.10 0.80 192 2.84 58.20 0.74 216 3.63 65.09 0.67 240 4.93 69.88 0.64 264 6.49 73.56 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 412 12 UTC = 407 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.20 -3.47 17.06 16.99 0.96 0.96 48 -3.16 -2.48 23.25 22.96 0.96 0.96 72 -0.94 -0.53 31.18 31.55 0.95 0.95 96 1.29 41.99 0.93 120 2.94 55.54 0.89 144 5.38 69.11 0.85 168 6.29 82.29 0.80 192 6.81 92.87 0.74 216 6.49 102.26 0.68 240 7.42 111.36 0.63 264 10.22 117.19 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 413 12 UTC = 409 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.24 1.43 1.47 0.84 0.84 48 -0.19 -0.15 1.59 1.61 0.87 0.87 72 -0.06 -0.03 1.76 1.78 0.87 0.87 96 0.09 2.04 0.85 120 0.20 2.41 0.82 144 0.32 2.75 0.78 168 0.45 3.17 0.73 192 0.51 3.51 0.66 216 0.53 3.76 0.60 240 0.62 4.05 0.54 264 0.79 4.26 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 424 12 UTC = 417 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.20 0.90 0.92 0.87 0.87 48 0.28 0.30 1.11 1.12 0.89 0.89 72 0.36 0.37 1.34 1.36 0.88 0.87 96 0.43 1.62 0.85 120 0.47 1.91 0.82 144 0.53 2.19 0.79 168 0.56 2.45 0.75 192 0.56 2.68 0.69 216 0.54 2.86 0.65 240 0.54 3.04 0.61 264 0.59 3.15 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 452 12 UTC = 447 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.05 1.10 1.09 0.88 0.88 48 -0.06 -0.09 1.38 1.38 0.88 0.88 72 -0.05 -0.08 1.67 1.66 0.86 0.87 96 -0.07 1.98 0.83 120 -0.02 2.25 0.81 144 -0.01 2.51 0.78 168 0.02 2.76 0.74 192 0.06 2.98 0.71 216 0.00 3.14 0.67 240 -0.02 3.26 0.64 264 0.03 3.44 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 449 12 UTC = 444 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.74 3.58 3.59 48 -0.79 -0.77 4.07 4.06 72 -0.81 -0.80 4.65 4.68 96 -0.87 5.37 120 -0.90 6.05 144 -0.89 6.69 168 -0.86 7.35 192 -0.86 7.81 216 -0.88 8.23 240 -0.92 8.47 264 -0.87 8.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 408 12 UTC = 403 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.74 3.66 3.68 48 -0.89 -0.88 4.49 4.51 72 -0.95 -0.94 5.51 5.61 96 -1.01 6.63 120 -1.06 7.67 144 -1.00 8.74 168 -0.99 9.73 192 -0.86 10.75 216 -0.82 11.45 240 -0.88 11.87 264 -0.90 12.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 443 12 UTC = 437 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.77 5.54 5.47 48 -0.89 -0.94 7.47 7.32 72 -0.98 -1.09 9.47 9.42 96 -1.02 11.56 120 -1.00 13.59 144 -0.86 15.62 168 -0.89 17.32 192 -0.68 18.89 216 -0.64 20.02 240 -0.70 20.70 264 -0.83 21.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 439 12 UTC = 433 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -2.30 9.29 10.61 0.98 0.98 48 0.78 -1.56 11.97 14.57 0.98 0.97 72 1.02 -2.37 15.60 19.76 0.97 0.96 96 -2.62 25.66 0.95 120 -1.78 33.70 0.89 144 -1.90 40.75 0.86 168 -3.45 48.24 0.79 192 -2.20 59.07 0.69 216 0.36 63.84 0.62 240 2.04 68.04 0.56 264 -0.11 72.80 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.81 -8.06 13.35 14.35 0.98 0.98 48 -7.07 -8.17 17.17 19.25 0.98 0.98 72 -7.26 -9.37 23.35 26.52 0.97 0.96 96 -10.81 34.97 0.95 120 -9.93 45.95 0.91 144 -9.00 54.01 0.88 168 -14.31 69.18 0.81 192 -11.48 82.28 0.72 216 -8.60 89.05 0.67 240 -5.26 94.66 0.62 264 -8.44 103.04 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.00 -10.18 17.12 18.67 0.98 0.98 48 -8.95 -10.55 23.03 24.64 0.98 0.98 72 -10.03 -12.20 32.35 34.27 0.98 0.97 96 -14.43 46.39 0.96 120 -14.23 60.85 0.93 144 -12.31 75.02 0.90 168 -19.30 93.60 0.84 192 -16.10 114.12 0.77 216 -12.25 126.01 0.71 240 -6.57 133.44 0.67 264 -10.69 144.37 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.91 1.69 1.78 0.88 0.89 48 -0.93 -0.94 1.87 1.95 0.91 0.92 72 -0.92 -0.94 2.06 2.18 0.92 0.92 96 -0.99 2.51 0.91 120 -1.01 2.93 0.87 144 -0.96 3.27 0.83 168 -1.09 3.82 0.78 192 -1.04 4.36 0.70 216 -1.10 4.77 0.61 240 -0.89 4.89 0.60 264 -0.86 5.02 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.12 0.98 0.95 0.93 0.93 48 -0.07 -0.17 1.17 1.17 0.94 0.94 72 -0.08 -0.15 1.47 1.48 0.93 0.92 96 -0.20 1.75 0.91 120 -0.21 2.09 0.89 144 -0.10 2.51 0.85 168 -0.30 3.19 0.77 192 -0.21 3.69 0.69 216 -0.12 3.88 0.63 240 0.02 3.98 0.63 264 0.01 4.21 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.09 1.06 1.10 0.92 0.91 48 -0.02 0.07 1.29 1.33 0.93 0.91 72 -0.07 0.06 1.54 1.56 0.90 0.90 96 0.02 1.80 0.88 120 0.01 2.22 0.83 144 -0.06 2.39 0.81 168 -0.02 2.85 0.74 192 -0.16 3.11 0.69 216 -0.29 3.33 0.66 240 -0.12 3.45 0.65 264 -0.05 3.67 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.62 4.46 4.43 48 -0.72 -0.64 4.82 4.91 72 -0.63 -0.52 5.27 5.53 96 -0.59 6.33 120 -0.67 7.20 144 -0.59 8.24 168 -0.30 9.56 192 -0.43 10.15 216 -0.46 10.55 240 -0.45 10.81 264 -0.40 11.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.59 4.47 4.43 48 -0.40 -0.54 5.36 5.42 72 -0.50 -0.51 6.59 6.71 96 -0.63 7.89 120 -0.66 9.31 144 -0.65 11.27 168 -0.66 12.96 192 -0.58 14.26 216 -1.07 15.26 240 -1.53 15.75 264 -1.34 17.17 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.63 5.37 5.49 48 -0.91 -0.69 6.64 6.76 72 -1.12 -0.57 8.33 8.78 96 -0.60 10.71 120 -0.82 13.29 144 -0.58 15.93 168 -1.10 18.50 192 -0.92 21.10 216 -1.90 22.53 240 -2.78 24.06 264 -2.35 26.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 ---------------------------------------------------------