VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AUGUST 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.04 0.76 0.75 0.99 0.99 18.0 17.7 48 -0.15 -0.11 1.34 1.35 0.97 0.97 27.9 27.6 72 -0.19 -0.14 1.99 1.95 0.94 0.94 36.8 35.9 96 -0.16 2.67 0.89 44.1 120 -0.18 3.50 0.82 52.0 144 -0.20 4.31 0.72 59.1 168 -0.19 5.21 0.59 65.6 192 -0.14 6.06 0.46 71.1 216 -0.10 6.52 0.37 73.7 240 -0.01 6.83 0.31 76.5 264 0.05 7.12 0.25 78.7 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.42 5.80 5.83 1.00 1.00 12.8 12.6 48 0.20 0.62 11.47 11.52 0.99 0.99 22.2 21.9 72 0.54 1.03 18.71 17.99 0.97 0.97 31.6 30.7 96 1.61 26.48 0.93 39.7 120 2.17 36.24 0.87 48.0 144 2.64 46.01 0.78 56.0 168 3.18 56.64 0.68 62.9 192 3.82 67.37 0.55 69.2 216 4.45 74.43 0.45 73.2 240 5.33 79.57 0.38 76.2 264 6.14 82.51 0.33 78.0 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.35 8.54 8.59 1.00 1.00 11.9 11.9 48 -0.23 0.12 17.11 17.25 0.99 0.99 21.0 20.9 72 -0.33 0.10 28.34 27.47 0.96 0.97 30.3 29.6 96 0.47 40.64 0.93 38.6 120 1.06 55.33 0.86 46.9 144 1.90 69.75 0.78 54.3 168 2.53 85.24 0.68 61.1 192 2.93 100.17 0.56 66.9 216 3.33 111.83 0.45 71.2 240 3.98 119.87 0.38 73.9 264 4.58 123.66 0.33 75.5 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.10 0.44 0.44 0.99 0.99 48 0.15 0.15 0.78 0.78 0.96 0.96 72 0.19 0.19 1.14 1.11 0.91 0.92 96 0.23 1.48 0.86 120 0.26 1.85 0.78 144 0.28 2.19 0.69 168 0.29 2.53 0.58 192 0.28 2.83 0.48 216 0.28 3.08 0.39 240 0.27 3.21 0.33 264 0.26 3.29 0.30 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.19 0.64 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 -0.29 -0.30 1.08 1.07 0.94 0.94 72 -0.36 -0.37 1.53 1.49 0.87 0.88 96 -0.41 1.89 0.80 120 -0.43 2.26 0.71 144 -0.42 2.59 0.61 168 -0.42 2.89 0.52 192 -0.42 3.18 0.42 216 -0.43 3.40 0.34 240 -0.46 3.52 0.29 264 -0.49 3.63 0.25 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.14 1.89 1.87 48 -0.23 -0.25 3.27 3.26 72 -0.30 -0.30 4.69 4.57 96 -0.36 5.96 120 -0.40 7.34 144 -0.42 8.62 168 -0.43 9.84 192 -0.48 10.93 216 -0.52 11.64 240 -0.54 12.21 264 -0.51 12.50 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.13 3.27 3.28 48 -0.24 -0.24 5.54 5.58 72 -0.30 -0.29 8.04 7.91 96 -0.36 10.38 120 -0.39 12.79 144 -0.43 14.93 168 -0.45 17.11 192 -0.48 18.85 216 -0.51 20.13 240 -0.54 21.02 264 -0.51 21.58 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.10 2.99 2.97 0.97 0.97 22.3 22.6 48 0.03 -0.09 4.41 4.44 0.93 0.93 30.1 30.1 72 0.16 0.02 5.50 5.77 0.89 0.89 35.4 35.4 96 0.05 6.76 0.84 39.8 120 0.06 7.62 0.80 43.3 144 -0.12 8.60 0.76 45.9 168 -0.57 9.80 0.70 48.0 192 -1.07 10.85 0.64 49.9 216 -1.17 11.63 0.59 51.9 240 -1.37 12.64 0.54 53.4 264 -1.77 13.38 0.50 55.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.89 4.07 4.37 0.98 0.98 21.2 21.3 48 -2.18 -2.83 6.62 7.22 0.95 0.95 28.8 29.1 72 -3.55 -4.00 8.97 9.46 0.92 0.92 34.3 34.8 96 -5.09 11.51 0.88 39.2 120 -5.91 13.44 0.84 43.0 144 -6.45 15.41 0.80 46.4 168 -7.34 17.21 0.75 48.9 192 -8.03 19.06 0.69 51.5 216 -8.07 20.80 0.63 54.2 240 -7.77 22.18 0.58 56.0 264 -7.52 23.33 0.53 58.0 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.10 0.39 0.41 0.96 0.96 48 -0.12 -0.11 0.60 0.61 0.91 0.91 72 -0.13 -0.13 0.76 0.77 0.85 0.86 96 -0.15 0.89 0.81 120 -0.15 1.00 0.76 144 -0.15 1.10 0.71 168 -0.15 1.19 0.66 192 -0.17 1.34 0.59 216 -0.21 1.45 0.53 240 -0.23 1.53 0.48 264 -0.22 1.60 0.43 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.26 0.40 0.42 0.93 0.93 48 -0.41 -0.45 0.63 0.65 0.85 0.85 72 -0.50 -0.54 0.78 0.81 0.75 0.76 96 -0.60 0.92 0.68 120 -0.63 0.99 0.61 144 -0.65 1.04 0.56 168 -0.65 1.09 0.51 192 -0.66 1.13 0.46 216 -0.66 1.18 0.39 240 -0.64 1.21 0.34 264 -0.63 1.23 0.30 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 1.45 1.41 48 -0.07 -0.08 2.17 2.14 72 -0.10 -0.13 2.72 2.69 96 -0.17 3.15 120 -0.18 3.54 144 -0.18 3.87 168 -0.15 4.16 192 -0.08 4.45 216 0.00 4.70 240 0.03 4.88 264 0.03 5.14 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.18 2.97 2.99 48 -0.17 -0.30 4.51 4.55 72 -0.17 -0.29 5.78 5.80 96 -0.18 6.82 120 -0.08 7.66 144 -0.02 8.39 168 -0.01 9.09 192 -0.02 9.85 216 0.02 10.53 240 0.01 10.95 264 -0.07 11.36 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.06 1.12 1.11 1.00 1.00 13.4 13.4 48 0.16 0.12 2.39 2.35 0.98 0.98 24.9 24.6 72 0.17 0.13 3.89 3.80 0.95 0.95 35.4 34.8 96 0.14 5.42 0.90 43.9 120 0.17 7.08 0.83 51.9 144 0.22 8.53 0.75 58.5 168 0.33 10.03 0.67 63.9 192 0.25 11.53 0.56 68.5 216 0.21 12.59 0.47 71.4 240 0.13 13.28 0.39 73.8 264 0.15 13.65 0.35 74.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.54 8.83 8.83 1.00 1.00 10.0 10.0 48 -0.56 -0.87 19.30 19.27 0.99 0.99 19.1 18.9 72 -0.83 -1.14 32.97 32.21 0.96 0.96 27.9 27.4 96 -1.10 47.93 0.92 35.8 120 -1.01 63.48 0.86 42.9 144 -0.75 79.34 0.78 49.5 168 -0.58 95.56 0.68 55.3 192 -0.57 112.40 0.55 60.4 216 -0.53 124.42 0.45 63.7 240 -0.62 134.67 0.35 66.7 264 -0.49 141.28 0.27 68.9 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.61 11.19 11.24 1.00 1.00 7.9 7.9 48 -0.54 -1.04 23.42 23.23 0.99 0.99 14.3 14.2 72 -0.68 -1.24 39.55 38.76 0.97 0.97 21.2 20.9 96 -1.23 58.01 0.93 28.1 120 -1.47 77.70 0.87 34.5 144 -2.02 99.27 0.80 41.0 168 -2.27 121.05 0.69 46.7 192 -1.70 142.84 0.57 51.9 216 -0.78 156.94 0.48 54.8 240 0.34 171.74 0.38 58.1 264 1.41 183.00 0.30 60.6 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.55 0.55 0.99 0.99 48 -0.02 -0.03 1.07 1.06 0.96 0.96 72 -0.01 -0.03 1.62 1.60 0.92 0.92 96 -0.02 2.16 0.85 120 -0.04 2.68 0.77 144 -0.07 3.23 0.66 168 -0.08 3.75 0.54 192 -0.05 4.21 0.43 216 0.01 4.45 0.37 240 0.06 4.77 0.28 264 0.08 5.04 0.21 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.04 0.63 0.64 0.99 0.99 48 -0.05 -0.06 1.11 1.12 0.95 0.95 72 -0.04 -0.06 1.63 1.63 0.90 0.90 96 -0.06 2.14 0.83 120 -0.05 2.58 0.75 144 -0.10 3.01 0.66 168 -0.11 3.37 0.57 192 -0.14 3.69 0.48 216 -0.15 3.90 0.41 240 -0.10 4.16 0.32 264 -0.08 4.30 0.28 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 2.55 2.55 48 0.02 0.03 4.91 4.89 72 0.06 0.04 7.32 7.18 96 0.05 9.50 120 0.05 11.55 144 0.02 13.46 168 -0.01 15.36 192 0.00 17.10 216 0.01 18.20 240 0.00 19.27 264 -0.07 20.07 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.07 3.30 3.33 48 -0.09 -0.12 5.86 5.85 72 -0.10 -0.15 8.65 8.61 96 -0.20 11.59 120 -0.24 14.57 144 -0.28 17.59 168 -0.27 20.42 192 -0.19 23.04 216 -0.20 24.65 240 -0.15 26.55 264 -0.16 28.17 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.94 -2.99 7.76 7.67 0.96 0.97 48 -3.61 -2.85 10.06 10.38 0.96 0.97 72 -4.48 -3.93 13.04 13.74 0.95 0.95 96 -6.93 18.19 0.93 120 -9.00 22.40 0.89 144 -9.68 28.62 0.81 168 -9.86 34.78 0.70 192 -11.02 38.19 0.62 216 -10.86 41.95 0.54 240 -8.59 44.24 0.50 264 -8.24 46.97 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.90 -3.91 8.80 8.65 0.96 0.97 48 -1.88 -2.32 10.81 11.08 0.97 0.97 72 -1.09 -2.28 14.52 15.20 0.96 0.96 96 -4.03 21.27 0.94 120 -5.16 26.87 0.90 144 -4.75 34.07 0.83 168 -4.38 42.05 0.73 192 -5.88 48.71 0.66 216 -4.93 56.16 0.54 240 -2.02 60.56 0.50 264 -2.07 64.27 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.08 -3.87 12.83 11.75 0.97 0.98 48 -0.42 -1.40 17.41 17.10 0.98 0.98 72 2.12 -0.20 24.70 24.15 0.96 0.96 96 -0.62 34.30 0.94 120 -0.45 43.84 0.90 144 0.55 52.60 0.85 168 0.64 65.80 0.78 192 -2.15 78.92 0.71 216 -0.32 94.63 0.59 240 2.14 103.98 0.52 264 1.28 107.48 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.54 1.36 1.56 0.86 0.86 48 -0.19 -0.50 1.57 1.68 0.89 0.90 72 -0.12 -0.47 1.75 1.85 0.89 0.89 96 -0.43 2.04 0.88 120 -0.40 2.27 0.84 144 -0.30 2.59 0.76 168 -0.25 2.99 0.66 192 -0.23 3.34 0.60 216 -0.15 3.60 0.56 240 -0.14 3.77 0.52 264 -0.13 3.92 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.29 0.86 0.88 0.87 0.86 48 0.40 0.40 1.04 1.03 0.89 0.89 72 0.50 0.47 1.22 1.21 0.88 0.88 96 0.53 1.43 0.85 120 0.59 1.63 0.81 144 0.61 1.84 0.76 168 0.59 2.07 0.70 192 0.53 2.36 0.63 216 0.54 2.67 0.53 240 0.51 2.87 0.48 264 0.44 2.89 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.04 0.91 0.87 0.87 0.89 48 -0.03 -0.06 1.15 1.12 0.88 0.89 72 0.06 0.01 1.35 1.33 0.88 0.89 96 0.10 1.57 0.86 120 0.21 1.83 0.82 144 0.26 1.98 0.78 168 0.29 2.16 0.73 192 0.28 2.54 0.67 216 0.36 2.79 0.60 240 0.40 3.01 0.52 264 0.38 3.08 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -1.04 3.42 3.60 48 -0.73 -1.08 3.91 4.12 72 -0.77 -1.14 4.41 4.67 96 -1.13 5.16 120 -1.17 5.65 144 -1.29 6.36 168 -1.40 7.18 192 -1.60 7.77 216 -1.71 8.15 240 -1.66 8.66 264 -1.57 8.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.72 3.56 3.47 48 -0.88 -0.81 4.05 4.09 72 -0.89 -0.80 4.83 4.76 96 -0.86 5.64 120 -0.86 6.47 144 -0.87 7.55 168 -0.85 8.72 192 -1.01 9.65 216 -1.00 10.56 240 -0.85 11.23 264 -0.64 11.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.69 5.41 5.14 48 -1.17 -0.88 6.73 6.63 72 -1.21 -0.77 8.24 8.13 96 -0.77 10.01 120 -0.74 11.74 144 -0.85 13.32 168 -0.69 15.52 192 -0.60 17.47 216 -0.38 19.50 240 -0.13 20.91 264 0.24 20.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.68 -4.12 8.38 8.16 0.97 0.97 48 -6.86 -6.77 10.97 10.89 0.97 0.98 72 -7.79 -8.01 14.71 14.32 0.96 0.96 96 -6.65 19.20 0.90 120 -5.96 25.83 0.80 144 -4.43 32.07 0.73 168 -3.10 36.88 0.68 192 -0.51 40.72 0.62 216 -0.84 44.51 0.61 240 -1.64 48.55 0.57 264 -0.50 51.37 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.47 -5.40 10.72 10.10 0.98 0.98 48 -8.88 -8.02 15.03 14.00 0.98 0.98 72 -9.07 -8.49 19.60 18.26 0.97 0.97 96 -5.03 24.60 0.93 120 -1.40 36.44 0.84 144 2.93 49.69 0.78 168 9.33 63.17 0.70 192 14.99 71.26 0.61 216 7.95 75.23 0.58 240 1.21 80.59 0.60 264 5.47 85.85 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.20 -4.98 13.96 13.52 0.99 0.99 48 -8.82 -8.49 21.09 20.19 0.99 0.99 72 -9.46 -8.82 29.81 27.52 0.97 0.97 96 -5.77 39.99 0.92 120 0.35 57.17 0.85 144 9.76 78.19 0.79 168 20.64 102.59 0.72 192 28.55 115.88 0.63 216 16.08 121.87 0.57 240 4.81 129.33 0.61 264 11.06 137.58 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 0.10 1.25 1.13 0.90 0.89 48 -0.40 0.02 1.43 1.27 0.93 0.93 72 -0.40 0.05 1.56 1.45 0.92 0.92 96 0.28 1.77 0.87 120 0.52 2.16 0.79 144 0.69 2.66 0.75 168 1.01 3.35 0.69 192 1.23 3.80 0.59 216 0.89 3.79 0.55 240 0.46 4.16 0.49 264 0.67 4.46 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.08 0.77 0.77 0.92 0.92 48 0.15 0.14 0.93 0.95 0.94 0.94 72 0.23 0.21 1.19 1.19 0.92 0.91 96 0.30 1.42 0.86 120 0.46 1.82 0.80 144 0.70 2.34 0.74 168 0.94 2.91 0.66 192 1.04 3.22 0.56 216 0.66 3.24 0.53 240 0.41 3.43 0.54 264 0.58 3.66 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.17 0.99 0.98 0.91 0.90 48 0.02 -0.02 1.21 1.22 0.91 0.90 72 -0.14 -0.13 1.54 1.44 0.87 0.87 96 -0.28 1.75 0.83 120 -0.22 2.00 0.79 144 -0.05 2.43 0.70 168 0.08 2.67 0.67 192 0.14 2.75 0.64 216 0.17 2.88 0.61 240 0.03 2.89 0.61 264 -0.04 2.96 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.54 3.47 3.38 48 -0.77 -0.59 3.80 3.71 72 -0.82 -0.63 4.27 4.12 96 -0.74 4.77 120 -0.58 5.49 144 -0.48 6.33 168 -0.20 7.09 192 -0.33 7.40 216 -0.60 7.62 240 -0.72 8.23 264 -0.86 8.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.29 3.53 3.30 48 -0.51 -0.44 4.25 4.01 72 -0.65 -0.45 5.21 4.95 96 -0.56 6.10 120 -0.38 7.75 144 -0.23 9.62 168 -0.24 10.75 192 -0.46 12.02 216 -0.25 12.68 240 -0.33 13.45 264 -0.66 14.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.65 5.12 4.92 48 -0.60 -0.77 6.38 6.47 72 -0.74 -0.78 8.56 8.43 96 -1.24 10.95 120 -1.05 14.07 144 -1.18 17.42 168 -1.55 20.19 192 -1.96 21.97 216 -1.32 22.94 240 -1.04 24.87 264 -1.50 26.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.15 -3.21 10.04 10.33 0.95 0.94 48 -3.98 -3.90 13.36 13.03 0.94 0.94 72 -3.97 -3.99 17.27 16.17 0.92 0.93 96 -5.00 19.89 0.89 120 -6.58 24.06 0.84 144 -7.88 28.79 0.79 168 -7.93 33.98 0.73 192 -6.95 39.47 0.66 216 -7.18 42.92 0.59 240 -5.09 44.54 0.56 264 -4.80 47.54 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 122 12 UTC = 121 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.98 -1.56 12.64 11.26 0.94 0.94 48 -2.74 -0.04 15.61 14.78 0.95 0.95 72 -1.50 1.64 19.84 19.00 0.93 0.93 96 1.55 24.51 0.90 120 0.10 30.45 0.85 144 -1.51 37.36 0.81 168 -1.70 43.80 0.76 192 -0.57 50.92 0.71 216 -1.27 56.00 0.65 240 -0.37 61.35 0.59 264 -1.62 67.12 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.70 -0.81 20.02 18.95 0.95 0.95 48 -3.14 1.40 24.70 24.50 0.96 0.95 72 -1.94 3.51 30.32 31.09 0.95 0.94 96 3.37 39.82 0.92 120 1.83 50.45 0.87 144 0.61 62.25 0.81 168 0.94 72.94 0.77 192 1.90 81.44 0.73 216 -0.55 90.43 0.68 240 -1.22 102.86 0.61 264 -3.82 113.40 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 131 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.34 1.56 1.52 0.82 0.83 48 -0.25 -0.22 1.71 1.65 0.86 0.87 72 -0.15 -0.09 1.84 1.81 0.86 0.86 96 0.03 2.05 0.84 120 0.11 2.36 0.80 144 0.10 2.68 0.75 168 0.09 3.01 0.69 192 0.06 3.19 0.65 216 0.03 3.48 0.61 240 0.03 3.72 0.56 264 0.01 4.02 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.12 0.94 0.98 0.85 0.86 48 0.16 0.23 1.10 1.16 0.88 0.88 72 0.20 0.29 1.30 1.35 0.87 0.87 96 0.28 1.57 0.85 120 0.24 1.81 0.80 144 0.22 2.09 0.75 168 0.21 2.33 0.71 192 0.22 2.49 0.69 216 0.16 2.68 0.65 240 0.04 2.98 0.60 264 -0.09 3.21 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 159 12 UTC = 157 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.10 1.12 1.16 0.87 0.87 48 -0.22 -0.18 1.35 1.38 0.88 0.88 72 -0.25 -0.16 1.58 1.62 0.87 0.87 96 -0.16 1.86 0.84 120 -0.13 2.20 0.78 144 -0.07 2.52 0.72 168 -0.05 2.73 0.69 192 -0.06 2.85 0.67 216 -0.06 3.04 0.63 240 -0.11 3.24 0.59 264 -0.16 3.41 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 155 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.67 3.55 3.56 48 -0.95 -0.67 4.10 4.14 72 -0.96 -0.68 4.80 4.77 96 -0.65 5.28 120 -0.53 5.95 144 -0.49 6.66 168 -0.50 7.23 192 -0.60 7.76 216 -0.61 8.08 240 -0.68 8.29 264 -0.72 8.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.66 3.72 3.66 48 -0.94 -0.73 4.56 4.51 72 -1.03 -0.79 5.59 5.47 96 -0.85 6.39 120 -0.76 7.36 144 -0.69 8.34 168 -0.74 9.34 192 -0.82 10.11 216 -0.78 10.60 240 -0.61 11.26 264 -0.65 11.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 158 12 UTC = 156 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.56 5.19 5.30 48 -0.72 -0.74 6.88 6.79 72 -0.79 -0.73 8.74 8.58 96 -0.88 10.34 120 -0.86 12.40 144 -0.70 14.34 168 -0.75 16.35 192 -0.95 17.65 216 -1.03 18.83 240 -0.92 20.17 264 -0.54 21.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 156 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.30 -2.92 6.73 6.71 0.98 0.99 48 -2.38 -2.27 8.78 9.66 0.98 0.98 72 -3.23 -2.65 12.91 13.90 0.97 0.98 96 -3.93 20.35 0.92 120 -4.34 27.94 0.87 144 -5.48 29.30 0.92 168 -9.99 44.91 0.80 192 -12.17 53.76 0.70 216 -13.68 61.77 0.64 240 -18.67 70.00 0.64 264 -20.80 76.70 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.37 -6.33 10.27 11.55 0.98 0.98 48 -5.78 -5.79 13.86 14.89 0.98 0.98 72 -7.85 -8.07 19.71 22.14 0.97 0.97 96 -10.24 32.66 0.96 120 -11.72 39.94 0.91 144 -11.68 42.30 0.94 168 -18.76 60.93 0.82 192 -22.45 77.88 0.73 216 -22.73 84.46 0.69 240 -21.46 92.61 0.72 264 -26.16 109.18 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.98 -5.70 11.67 13.93 0.99 0.98 48 -4.10 -6.12 16.16 18.40 0.99 0.97 72 -7.62 -7.79 24.18 28.54 0.98 0.96 96 -10.86 39.71 0.96 120 -14.14 47.89 0.96 144 -16.18 55.13 0.95 168 -24.94 76.33 0.89 192 -25.69 95.75 0.84 216 -25.89 105.31 0.75 240 -16.97 117.81 0.70 264 -23.31 148.32 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.71 1.18 1.26 0.86 0.85 48 -0.51 -0.66 1.30 1.36 0.90 0.89 72 -0.55 -0.67 1.49 1.54 0.91 0.86 96 -0.67 1.76 0.87 120 -0.66 1.92 0.84 144 -0.60 2.21 0.74 168 -0.55 2.42 0.68 192 -0.78 2.73 0.60 216 -0.92 3.01 0.58 240 -0.62 3.20 0.55 264 -0.70 3.67 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.12 1.02 0.90 0.89 0.93 48 0.23 0.12 1.19 1.09 0.92 0.92 72 0.19 0.09 1.38 1.42 0.91 0.88 96 -0.01 1.74 0.88 120 -0.13 1.88 0.88 144 -0.13 2.07 0.84 168 -0.34 2.32 0.84 192 -0.32 2.89 0.70 216 -0.19 3.18 0.60 240 0.17 3.29 0.63 264 -0.01 4.04 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.13 1.14 1.30 0.91 0.91 48 -0.15 -0.23 1.34 1.52 0.92 0.92 72 -0.19 -0.23 1.58 1.90 0.92 0.90 96 -0.29 2.14 0.89 120 -0.36 2.53 0.86 144 -0.61 2.78 0.78 168 -0.37 3.02 0.72 192 -0.24 3.45 0.65 216 -0.22 3.99 0.53 240 0.02 4.41 0.48 264 0.19 4.72 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.88 3.73 3.70 48 -0.44 -0.79 4.12 4.19 72 -0.25 -0.57 4.93 5.18 96 -0.58 6.08 120 -0.77 6.73 144 -0.73 7.61 168 -0.83 8.62 192 -1.00 9.63 216 -0.50 10.81 240 -0.46 11.41 264 -0.25 12.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.68 4.47 4.43 48 -0.41 -0.70 5.20 5.35 72 -0.26 -0.53 6.24 6.74 96 -0.22 7.61 120 -0.27 8.81 144 -0.32 10.18 168 -0.59 11.10 192 -0.13 13.37 216 -0.47 15.47 240 -0.68 15.41 264 -0.29 17.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.67 5.15 5.30 48 -0.58 -0.73 6.14 6.57 72 -0.66 -0.87 7.54 8.00 96 -0.86 9.08 120 -0.51 11.34 144 -0.74 13.49 168 -0.39 15.25 192 0.43 18.73 216 -0.72 22.09 240 -0.65 23.60 264 -0.60 26.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.54 -4.42 9.26 9.58 0.73 0.73 48 -4.74 -4.58 9.93 10.20 0.81 0.82 72 -4.78 -5.25 10.54 11.23 0.83 0.80 96 -5.72 12.12 0.79 120 -5.77 13.05 0.77 144 -5.79 13.85 0.73 168 -6.02 14.65 0.71 192 -6.11 15.42 0.68 216 -5.64 15.65 0.67 240 -5.69 16.23 0.64 264 -6.15 16.72 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.42 -6.19 11.91 11.99 0.67 0.66 48 -6.27 -6.05 12.35 12.52 0.80 0.77 72 -6.40 -6.62 13.03 13.48 0.81 0.77 96 -7.21 14.32 0.77 120 -7.48 15.03 0.74 144 -7.70 15.70 0.72 168 -8.11 16.74 0.70 192 -8.33 17.48 0.67 216 -8.18 18.14 0.64 240 -8.17 18.49 0.61 264 -8.55 18.79 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.01 -7.38 15.43 14.61 0.62 0.64 48 -8.76 -8.15 16.69 16.07 0.74 0.75 72 -9.67 -9.22 18.15 17.66 0.76 0.76 96 -10.41 19.34 0.73 120 -11.00 20.53 0.69 144 -11.19 21.78 0.65 168 -11.68 23.14 0.64 192 -12.09 24.04 0.63 216 -11.97 24.67 0.60 240 -11.39 24.82 0.57 264 -11.39 25.16 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.45 1.14 1.17 0.48 0.49 48 -0.48 -0.47 1.17 1.23 0.58 0.59 72 -0.47 -0.46 1.21 1.26 0.60 0.60 96 -0.45 1.28 0.60 120 -0.45 1.33 0.57 144 -0.46 1.42 0.55 168 -0.48 1.48 0.52 192 -0.50 1.62 0.48 216 -0.54 1.68 0.47 240 -0.57 1.71 0.42 264 -0.55 1.77 0.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.23 0.84 0.84 0.54 0.55 48 0.20 0.26 0.89 0.89 0.62 0.61 72 0.19 0.28 0.92 0.95 0.64 0.58 96 0.25 0.99 0.57 120 0.20 1.03 0.57 144 0.18 1.09 0.55 168 0.16 1.11 0.55 192 0.17 1.13 0.52 216 0.16 1.17 0.48 240 0.20 1.19 0.42 264 0.22 1.23 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.33 0.69 0.69 0.58 0.61 48 -0.43 -0.47 0.82 0.82 0.66 0.70 72 -0.47 -0.52 0.90 0.92 0.67 0.70 96 -0.54 0.98 0.69 120 -0.54 1.04 0.66 144 -0.54 1.07 0.62 168 -0.55 1.10 0.60 192 -0.56 1.15 0.59 216 -0.60 1.21 0.55 240 -0.58 1.21 0.52 264 -0.55 1.19 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.40 3.55 3.54 48 -0.42 -0.47 3.89 3.87 72 -0.45 -0.50 4.23 4.17 96 -0.53 4.50 120 -0.57 4.88 144 -0.64 5.17 168 -0.67 5.34 192 -0.70 5.59 216 -0.73 5.72 240 -0.76 5.76 264 -0.77 5.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.91 -0.86 3.83 3.86 48 -0.99 -0.97 4.21 4.29 72 -0.99 -0.99 4.60 4.66 96 -1.05 5.10 120 -1.14 5.53 144 -1.21 5.92 168 -1.34 6.22 192 -1.45 6.56 216 -1.51 6.84 240 -1.56 7.11 264 -1.58 7.31 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.68 5.01 5.01 48 -0.73 -0.80 5.88 5.87 72 -0.71 -0.77 6.71 6.71 96 -0.67 7.56 120 -0.53 8.41 144 -0.43 8.95 168 -0.36 9.48 192 -0.33 9.95 216 -0.34 10.30 240 -0.38 10.74 264 -0.70 10.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.96 -4.04 9.49 9.78 0.97 0.97 48 -4.87 -5.15 12.68 12.99 0.97 0.97 72 -5.08 -5.47 17.01 16.47 0.95 0.96 96 -5.74 21.22 0.93 120 -6.15 26.78 0.88 144 -6.33 33.13 0.82 168 -6.39 39.65 0.74 192 -6.35 45.76 0.66 216 -6.51 49.74 0.62 240 -5.74 52.23 0.59 264 -5.75 55.97 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 398 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.57 -3.81 11.82 11.19 0.97 0.97 48 -4.27 -3.62 15.32 14.94 0.97 0.97 72 -3.50 -2.88 20.85 19.74 0.96 0.96 96 -2.16 26.71 0.94 120 -1.99 35.08 0.89 144 -1.47 44.78 0.83 168 -0.80 54.57 0.76 192 -0.64 63.68 0.69 216 -1.56 70.59 0.63 240 -1.75 75.88 0.59 264 -2.31 80.73 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 410 12 UTC = 405 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.15 -4.06 17.70 17.26 0.97 0.97 48 -4.62 -3.77 23.06 23.14 0.98 0.97 72 -3.78 -2.70 31.27 30.56 0.96 0.96 96 -1.95 41.83 0.93 120 -1.40 54.67 0.89 144 0.19 69.63 0.84 168 1.64 85.11 0.77 192 1.38 98.73 0.70 216 -1.12 110.79 0.63 240 -2.75 119.77 0.59 264 -4.39 127.19 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 410 12 UTC = 405 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.31 1.43 1.45 0.88 0.88 48 -0.33 -0.28 1.61 1.58 0.90 0.90 72 -0.26 -0.22 1.79 1.78 0.89 0.89 96 -0.12 2.04 0.87 120 -0.04 2.40 0.82 144 0.02 2.80 0.77 168 0.09 3.27 0.70 192 0.11 3.61 0.64 216 0.07 3.84 0.60 240 0.02 4.07 0.55 264 0.02 4.30 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 424 12 UTC = 416 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.15 0.91 0.92 0.90 0.90 48 0.22 0.24 1.10 1.11 0.92 0.92 72 0.27 0.29 1.35 1.34 0.90 0.90 96 0.32 1.60 0.86 120 0.34 1.91 0.82 144 0.37 2.27 0.76 168 0.39 2.59 0.70 192 0.38 2.86 0.64 216 0.31 3.07 0.59 240 0.22 3.25 0.57 264 0.15 3.40 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 450 12 UTC = 445 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.05 1.09 1.10 0.90 0.90 48 -0.11 -0.15 1.35 1.37 0.90 0.90 72 -0.16 -0.16 1.67 1.67 0.88 0.88 96 -0.19 1.97 0.84 120 -0.17 2.29 0.79 144 -0.11 2.59 0.73 168 -0.07 2.82 0.69 192 -0.07 3.04 0.64 216 -0.06 3.27 0.60 240 -0.11 3.39 0.58 264 -0.13 3.54 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 445 12 UTC = 440 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.74 3.55 3.57 48 -0.86 -0.78 4.08 4.12 72 -0.90 -0.80 4.76 4.72 96 -0.82 5.38 120 -0.80 6.05 144 -0.79 6.81 168 -0.76 7.51 192 -0.86 8.08 216 -0.97 8.38 240 -1.00 8.75 264 -0.99 9.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 411 12 UTC = 405 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.65 3.70 3.60 48 -0.84 -0.75 4.51 4.45 72 -0.90 -0.78 5.63 5.41 96 -0.84 6.53 120 -0.80 7.70 144 -0.77 8.92 168 -0.77 10.06 192 -0.80 11.14 216 -0.80 11.88 240 -0.71 12.43 264 -0.70 12.88 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 441 12 UTC = 435 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.64 5.19 5.16 48 -0.79 -0.78 6.79 6.74 72 -0.81 -0.77 8.83 8.63 96 -0.87 10.72 120 -0.80 13.01 144 -0.82 15.28 168 -0.81 17.56 192 -0.83 19.34 216 -0.74 20.87 240 -0.62 21.95 264 -0.47 22.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 437 12 UTC = 432 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.65 -2.11 9.20 10.10 0.98 0.98 48 -1.11 -1.72 12.01 13.88 0.98 0.98 72 -1.68 -3.01 17.84 20.31 0.96 0.96 96 -3.20 27.52 0.93 120 -2.32 36.14 0.89 144 -0.75 42.27 0.84 168 -2.64 53.12 0.75 192 -4.80 60.19 0.69 216 -3.76 64.67 0.62 240 -3.81 68.40 0.59 264 -6.33 73.66 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.01 -7.62 13.50 14.40 0.98 0.98 48 -7.73 -8.49 18.23 20.65 0.98 0.98 72 -9.98 -11.41 26.18 29.62 0.97 0.96 96 -12.96 39.41 0.94 120 -11.99 51.53 0.91 144 -9.92 58.65 0.88 168 -12.17 72.89 0.82 192 -15.78 87.97 0.74 216 -15.59 92.69 0.70 240 -14.95 99.55 0.64 264 -19.80 106.54 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.31 -9.03 16.44 18.34 0.99 0.99 48 -8.02 -10.69 22.97 25.61 0.99 0.98 72 -11.34 -14.34 33.18 37.54 0.98 0.97 96 -17.48 52.03 0.95 120 -18.00 69.09 0.92 144 -16.35 84.72 0.88 168 -20.40 102.45 0.84 192 -26.34 119.14 0.78 216 -24.89 129.74 0.73 240 -22.55 138.76 0.67 264 -28.76 149.93 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.95 1.72 1.80 0.88 0.91 48 -0.90 -1.05 1.87 2.05 0.93 0.92 72 -0.95 -1.12 2.15 2.33 0.91 0.91 96 -1.20 2.70 0.88 120 -1.20 3.12 0.86 144 -1.24 3.70 0.80 168 -1.21 4.11 0.77 192 -1.31 4.69 0.70 216 -1.55 5.18 0.64 240 -1.79 5.24 0.64 264 -2.01 5.75 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.10 1.01 0.99 0.93 0.93 48 -0.03 -0.13 1.24 1.22 0.93 0.94 72 -0.07 -0.22 1.58 1.62 0.92 0.93 96 -0.27 1.98 0.89 120 -0.29 2.44 0.86 144 -0.25 2.79 0.83 168 -0.30 3.22 0.79 192 -0.49 3.71 0.72 216 -0.41 4.06 0.67 240 -0.26 4.19 0.63 264 -0.42 4.48 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.04 1.15 1.20 0.93 0.92 48 -0.01 -0.01 1.34 1.39 0.94 0.93 72 -0.02 -0.07 1.62 1.76 0.92 0.90 96 -0.15 2.15 0.87 120 -0.20 2.51 0.83 144 -0.38 2.75 0.82 168 -0.42 3.02 0.77 192 -0.29 3.61 0.65 216 -0.43 3.84 0.60 240 -0.51 4.10 0.54 264 -0.28 4.32 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.86 4.27 4.47 48 -0.73 -0.81 4.75 5.02 72 -0.52 -0.77 5.59 5.91 96 -0.72 6.93 120 -0.88 7.87 144 -0.79 8.86 168 -0.83 9.67 192 -0.36 11.06 216 -0.32 11.47 240 -0.55 11.63 264 -0.55 12.23 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.51 4.59 4.71 48 -0.27 -0.42 5.54 5.77 72 -0.13 -0.30 6.74 7.14 96 -0.04 8.58 120 -0.22 10.48 144 -0.20 11.92 168 -0.61 13.25 192 -0.86 15.00 216 -0.88 15.93 240 -0.79 16.67 264 -0.47 18.03 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.52 5.56 5.66 48 -0.68 -0.54 6.77 7.08 72 -0.70 -0.43 8.53 8.92 96 -0.43 11.47 120 -0.49 14.39 144 -0.38 17.38 168 -0.65 19.80 192 -1.06 21.90 216 -1.28 24.08 240 -1.18 25.43 264 -0.65 27.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 38 ---------------------------------------------------------