VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY SEPTEMBER 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.01 0.76 0.75 0.99 0.99 17.0 17.0 48 -0.06 -0.02 1.31 1.31 0.98 0.98 26.5 26.2 72 -0.03 0.00 1.99 1.99 0.95 0.95 35.5 35.0 96 0.04 2.79 0.91 43.7 120 0.06 3.75 0.83 52.4 144 0.07 4.76 0.73 60.1 168 0.08 5.55 0.63 65.7 192 0.11 6.30 0.53 70.5 216 0.13 6.73 0.46 74.0 240 0.15 7.18 0.39 76.5 264 0.21 7.51 0.31 78.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.28 5.79 5.82 1.00 1.00 11.0 11.0 48 0.16 0.43 11.55 11.62 0.99 0.99 19.4 19.5 72 0.74 0.96 18.84 18.97 0.97 0.97 28.0 28.0 96 1.63 27.95 0.94 36.5 120 1.89 39.34 0.88 45.0 144 2.09 50.70 0.80 52.5 168 2.26 60.98 0.71 58.7 192 2.57 69.48 0.63 63.9 216 2.71 75.97 0.55 67.8 240 2.93 81.81 0.47 70.6 264 3.32 86.28 0.38 72.7 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 0.05 8.38 8.38 1.00 1.00 10.0 10.0 48 -0.86 -0.51 17.23 17.27 0.99 0.99 17.9 17.9 72 -1.17 -0.77 28.59 28.63 0.97 0.97 26.2 26.1 96 -0.75 42.64 0.94 34.6 120 -0.95 59.91 0.88 42.9 144 -1.14 76.23 0.80 50.2 168 -1.18 90.97 0.72 56.2 192 -1.29 103.35 0.63 61.1 216 -1.83 114.11 0.55 64.9 240 -2.38 122.50 0.48 67.8 264 -2.85 130.05 0.39 70.1 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.06 0.43 0.44 0.99 0.99 48 0.09 0.09 0.77 0.77 0.97 0.97 72 0.11 0.11 1.13 1.14 0.94 0.94 96 0.11 1.56 0.88 120 0.11 2.01 0.80 144 0.12 2.41 0.72 168 0.11 2.76 0.63 192 0.09 3.04 0.54 216 0.08 3.30 0.45 240 0.06 3.48 0.39 264 0.05 3.64 0.32 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.18 0.64 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 -0.31 -0.32 1.08 1.08 0.93 0.93 72 -0.42 -0.42 1.52 1.51 0.87 0.87 96 -0.48 1.95 0.77 120 -0.52 2.35 0.66 144 -0.55 2.67 0.56 168 -0.57 2.97 0.46 192 -0.62 3.18 0.39 216 -0.67 3.38 0.32 240 -0.70 3.48 0.27 264 -0.75 3.58 0.24 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.11 1.90 1.88 48 -0.23 -0.21 3.30 3.29 72 -0.32 -0.28 4.74 4.74 96 -0.36 6.23 120 -0.40 7.85 144 -0.45 9.25 168 -0.51 10.43 192 -0.55 11.36 216 -0.59 12.12 240 -0.65 12.68 264 -0.70 13.13 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.17 3.22 3.20 48 -0.27 -0.31 5.48 5.48 72 -0.39 -0.41 7.95 7.92 96 -0.46 10.58 120 -0.46 13.37 144 -0.54 15.62 168 -0.60 17.64 192 -0.71 19.17 216 -0.77 20.47 240 -0.84 21.49 264 -0.98 22.28 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.01 2.91 2.90 0.97 0.97 23.7 24.2 48 0.06 -0.04 4.47 4.45 0.93 0.94 32.1 32.3 72 -0.08 -0.10 5.55 5.64 0.89 0.90 37.4 37.9 96 -0.25 6.51 0.86 41.8 120 -0.49 7.27 0.83 44.9 144 -0.85 8.23 0.78 47.7 168 -1.23 9.07 0.73 50.3 192 -1.66 9.96 0.68 52.7 216 -2.12 11.03 0.63 54.8 240 -2.68 12.09 0.56 56.8 264 -3.30 12.89 0.50 58.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.98 4.15 4.42 0.98 0.98 21.2 21.5 48 -2.96 -3.42 6.89 7.26 0.96 0.95 29.0 29.5 72 -4.59 -4.81 9.03 9.26 0.93 0.93 34.5 34.9 96 -6.18 11.18 0.90 39.5 120 -7.32 13.33 0.86 43.7 144 -8.22 15.56 0.81 47.7 168 -8.74 17.56 0.76 51.5 192 -9.05 19.47 0.69 54.9 216 -9.42 20.94 0.63 57.4 240 -9.73 22.47 0.57 59.2 264 -10.00 23.54 0.53 60.1 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 0.41 0.44 0.96 0.96 48 -0.11 -0.09 0.62 0.64 0.91 0.92 72 -0.11 -0.11 0.77 0.79 0.86 0.88 96 -0.11 0.91 0.83 120 -0.11 1.03 0.79 144 -0.10 1.15 0.73 168 -0.10 1.28 0.67 192 -0.11 1.38 0.62 216 -0.11 1.47 0.57 240 -0.11 1.55 0.51 264 -0.10 1.62 0.47 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.31 0.42 0.44 0.92 0.92 48 -0.47 -0.51 0.65 0.68 0.82 0.82 72 -0.56 -0.60 0.78 0.82 0.74 0.73 96 -0.66 0.91 0.66 120 -0.70 0.98 0.60 144 -0.73 1.03 0.55 168 -0.74 1.08 0.48 192 -0.74 1.12 0.43 216 -0.73 1.13 0.39 240 -0.71 1.14 0.37 264 -0.69 1.14 0.36 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.07 1.41 1.43 48 -0.11 -0.09 2.16 2.16 72 -0.10 -0.10 2.68 2.68 96 -0.11 3.08 120 -0.09 3.42 144 -0.06 3.69 168 -0.02 3.98 192 0.03 4.26 216 0.05 4.48 240 0.02 4.68 264 -0.04 4.81 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.30 2.82 2.90 48 -0.41 -0.53 4.27 4.35 72 -0.51 -0.60 5.36 5.44 96 -0.61 6.34 120 -0.63 7.14 144 -0.64 7.92 168 -0.61 8.77 192 -0.58 9.57 216 -0.58 10.13 240 -0.52 10.47 264 -0.40 10.77 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 1.06 1.03 1.00 1.00 12.5 12.6 48 0.06 0.04 2.12 2.02 0.98 0.98 22.7 22.5 72 0.05 0.02 3.42 3.24 0.95 0.95 32.3 31.8 96 0.00 4.79 0.90 41.0 120 0.02 6.49 0.82 49.2 144 0.05 7.75 0.74 55.2 168 0.05 8.89 0.65 60.2 192 0.09 10.11 0.55 63.9 216 0.17 11.25 0.45 67.2 240 0.26 11.82 0.39 69.9 264 0.30 12.02 0.37 70.6 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.33 8.67 8.62 1.00 1.00 9.5 9.6 48 -0.45 -0.69 17.87 17.63 0.99 0.99 17.6 17.6 72 -0.76 -0.96 29.53 29.38 0.97 0.97 25.4 25.5 96 -1.11 44.16 0.93 33.3 120 -0.97 61.07 0.86 41.1 144 -0.72 74.88 0.79 47.0 168 -0.31 88.49 0.69 52.4 192 0.49 103.29 0.58 56.7 216 0.67 116.32 0.47 60.8 240 0.61 123.83 0.40 63.7 264 0.66 127.50 0.36 65.2 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.53 10.76 11.00 1.00 1.00 7.6 7.7 48 -0.95 -1.14 22.00 22.01 0.99 0.99 13.4 13.5 72 -1.53 -1.67 36.62 36.32 0.97 0.97 19.7 19.7 96 -2.25 55.18 0.93 26.6 120 -2.19 77.21 0.87 33.8 144 -1.77 97.33 0.79 39.9 168 -1.50 116.55 0.69 45.6 192 -1.39 135.33 0.58 49.9 216 -2.70 152.11 0.47 53.5 240 -3.65 162.50 0.40 56.1 264 -4.03 167.72 0.35 57.9 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 -0.01 0.99 0.99 0.97 0.97 72 -0.01 0.00 1.49 1.49 0.92 0.92 96 -0.01 2.03 0.86 120 -0.01 2.60 0.77 144 -0.01 3.14 0.66 168 -0.02 3.60 0.55 192 -0.05 3.96 0.45 216 -0.12 4.30 0.35 240 -0.20 4.59 0.26 264 -0.22 4.76 0.20 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 0.61 0.62 0.99 0.98 48 -0.11 -0.11 1.06 1.07 0.96 0.96 72 -0.14 -0.14 1.52 1.54 0.91 0.91 96 -0.16 2.05 0.83 120 -0.16 2.58 0.73 144 -0.12 2.99 0.64 168 -0.09 3.35 0.55 192 -0.12 3.65 0.47 216 -0.17 3.99 0.37 240 -0.15 4.19 0.31 264 -0.16 4.26 0.30 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.01 2.45 2.44 48 0.01 0.03 4.56 4.54 72 0.03 0.04 6.65 6.64 96 0.03 8.80 120 0.04 11.08 144 0.08 12.97 168 0.14 14.72 192 0.02 16.06 216 -0.10 17.32 240 -0.13 18.23 264 -0.20 18.67 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.06 3.17 3.21 48 -0.08 -0.10 5.54 5.58 72 -0.11 -0.14 8.14 8.15 96 -0.18 11.11 120 -0.17 14.37 144 -0.14 17.38 168 -0.22 20.29 192 -0.44 22.37 216 -0.64 24.06 240 -0.68 25.27 264 -0.76 26.23 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.98 -2.30 7.70 8.21 0.98 0.97 48 -2.37 -2.28 10.40 10.85 0.98 0.98 72 -1.60 -2.32 14.03 15.39 0.96 0.96 96 -3.10 21.09 0.93 120 -3.42 27.73 0.89 144 -4.03 34.38 0.79 168 -4.46 39.06 0.72 192 -5.42 43.04 0.69 216 -5.13 47.06 0.63 240 -2.19 49.27 0.59 264 -1.15 51.57 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.06 -4.57 9.34 9.77 0.98 0.98 48 -2.62 -3.88 12.80 12.82 0.98 0.98 72 -1.21 -3.17 18.55 18.91 0.98 0.98 96 -3.66 27.79 0.96 120 -3.20 39.07 0.92 144 -3.72 48.79 0.85 168 -5.05 57.14 0.76 192 -6.25 63.87 0.69 216 -6.42 71.18 0.63 240 -4.38 77.55 0.59 264 -1.70 80.71 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.13 -6.14 13.92 13.59 0.98 0.99 48 -3.48 -5.27 19.81 19.38 0.99 0.99 72 -1.98 -4.58 30.23 29.61 0.98 0.98 96 -5.47 45.62 0.96 120 -5.30 63.20 0.93 144 -6.57 80.18 0.87 168 -8.35 94.21 0.80 192 -8.63 106.80 0.71 216 -9.77 120.88 0.63 240 -9.75 131.73 0.58 264 -5.45 135.75 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.41 1.34 1.51 0.89 0.89 48 -0.15 -0.37 1.56 1.66 0.92 0.92 72 -0.13 -0.36 1.78 1.87 0.91 0.91 96 -0.41 2.19 0.89 120 -0.37 2.55 0.86 144 -0.41 3.02 0.80 168 -0.38 3.40 0.74 192 -0.30 3.69 0.69 216 -0.25 4.14 0.60 240 -0.33 4.62 0.54 264 -0.25 4.77 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.05 0.85 0.88 0.92 0.92 48 0.15 0.09 1.04 1.05 0.93 0.94 72 0.17 0.13 1.35 1.31 0.92 0.92 96 0.14 1.73 0.90 120 0.18 2.14 0.87 144 0.17 2.48 0.82 168 0.10 2.84 0.74 192 0.07 3.17 0.67 216 0.08 3.48 0.60 240 0.03 3.74 0.53 264 0.14 3.79 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.07 0.94 0.94 0.89 0.89 48 -0.15 -0.17 1.19 1.18 0.88 0.88 72 -0.17 -0.18 1.46 1.43 0.83 0.84 96 -0.22 1.72 0.80 120 -0.24 2.05 0.77 144 -0.22 2.35 0.72 168 -0.17 2.47 0.69 192 -0.16 2.65 0.64 216 -0.24 2.73 0.62 240 -0.39 2.92 0.57 264 -0.41 3.02 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.92 3.60 3.81 48 -0.67 -0.98 4.21 4.34 72 -0.69 -1.05 4.92 5.02 96 -1.08 5.96 120 -1.13 6.90 144 -0.98 7.66 168 -1.08 8.18 192 -1.07 8.75 216 -1.23 9.31 240 -1.12 9.84 264 -1.07 10.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.80 3.91 3.82 48 -0.95 -0.89 4.70 4.60 72 -0.96 -0.92 5.88 5.80 96 -0.88 7.33 120 -0.79 9.17 144 -0.80 10.37 168 -0.71 11.51 192 -0.83 12.16 216 -0.85 13.49 240 -0.83 14.47 264 -0.76 14.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -0.92 5.66 5.52 48 -1.05 -1.15 7.10 7.13 72 -1.12 -1.22 9.38 9.33 96 -1.11 12.54 120 -0.93 15.55 144 -1.17 18.35 168 -0.89 20.50 192 -0.94 22.05 216 -1.01 23.96 240 -0.95 25.63 264 -1.12 26.04 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.07 -5.52 8.55 8.99 0.97 0.96 48 -8.14 -8.76 12.39 13.18 0.97 0.97 72 -8.55 -9.18 17.17 17.44 0.95 0.96 96 -10.16 22.49 0.93 120 -8.29 29.17 0.86 144 -5.60 38.74 0.71 168 -7.32 46.46 0.68 192 -5.92 53.60 0.63 216 -4.90 52.56 0.64 240 -5.96 55.04 0.62 264 -7.97 62.21 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.52 -7.73 11.61 12.03 0.98 0.98 48 -10.63 -10.38 17.30 17.41 0.98 0.98 72 -11.46 -11.16 24.14 24.06 0.96 0.96 96 -12.94 33.06 0.93 120 -11.18 48.22 0.84 144 -6.46 63.76 0.74 168 -8.39 72.29 0.73 192 -10.46 84.69 0.68 216 -6.60 84.50 0.69 240 -5.82 86.32 0.65 264 -8.21 99.92 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.57 -8.37 14.66 16.02 0.98 0.98 48 -11.59 -11.00 24.04 23.89 0.98 0.98 72 -13.96 -13.27 36.46 36.41 0.96 0.96 96 -16.73 53.35 0.92 120 -16.78 79.83 0.83 144 -10.70 98.74 0.75 168 -11.14 106.37 0.74 192 -15.39 124.51 0.68 216 -6.75 124.94 0.70 240 -5.02 130.95 0.67 264 -10.41 152.87 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.01 1.23 1.12 0.88 0.87 48 -0.45 -0.10 1.43 1.30 0.91 0.90 72 -0.54 -0.18 1.66 1.51 0.89 0.90 96 -0.23 1.72 0.88 120 -0.24 2.19 0.84 144 -0.09 2.74 0.75 168 0.02 2.95 0.75 192 -0.11 3.44 0.68 216 0.06 3.81 0.65 240 0.15 4.18 0.63 264 0.23 4.44 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 -0.03 0.74 0.71 0.92 0.93 48 0.05 0.04 0.95 0.91 0.92 0.93 72 0.06 0.02 1.20 1.24 0.90 0.89 96 -0.05 1.67 0.83 120 -0.09 2.24 0.76 144 0.07 2.68 0.67 168 0.09 2.81 0.66 192 -0.12 3.08 0.61 216 0.10 3.23 0.63 240 0.22 3.32 0.62 264 0.11 3.75 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.12 0.95 0.92 0.89 0.90 48 -0.06 -0.04 1.17 1.11 0.87 0.88 72 -0.21 -0.16 1.37 1.42 0.85 0.85 96 -0.15 1.67 0.80 120 -0.29 2.10 0.71 144 -0.31 2.33 0.69 168 -0.23 2.46 0.65 192 -0.10 2.73 0.60 216 0.11 2.91 0.54 240 0.12 3.11 0.54 264 0.09 3.19 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.64 3.49 3.44 48 -0.79 -0.70 3.89 3.85 72 -0.79 -0.77 4.63 4.54 96 -0.54 5.11 120 -0.60 6.25 144 -0.54 7.32 168 -0.56 8.10 192 -0.36 8.90 216 -0.10 9.10 240 -0.01 9.56 264 -0.05 9.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.62 3.55 3.43 48 -0.74 -0.71 4.38 4.43 72 -0.82 -0.87 5.65 5.68 96 -0.73 7.13 120 -0.54 9.63 144 -0.48 12.11 168 -0.49 13.08 192 -0.10 14.73 216 0.04 15.09 240 0.30 15.76 264 0.38 16.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.79 5.32 5.37 48 -0.95 -0.92 7.20 7.18 72 -1.00 -0.99 10.06 9.92 96 -0.76 12.51 120 -0.29 17.33 144 -0.21 20.53 168 -0.15 22.24 192 0.50 24.97 216 0.56 25.67 240 0.83 25.88 264 0.44 28.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.63 -1.95 8.82 8.92 0.95 0.95 48 -1.21 -1.52 10.75 11.01 0.96 0.96 72 -1.30 -1.34 13.75 13.92 0.95 0.95 96 -2.26 18.17 0.92 120 -3.95 24.28 0.87 144 -3.71 27.83 0.83 168 -2.38 30.70 0.80 192 -2.77 35.68 0.74 216 -2.69 38.74 0.67 240 -4.82 40.67 0.68 264 -4.06 43.52 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 122 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.35 -1.79 11.86 10.95 0.95 0.94 48 -1.31 0.27 14.20 13.97 0.96 0.96 72 -0.02 1.79 17.88 18.13 0.95 0.95 96 1.70 24.21 0.92 120 0.47 31.49 0.88 144 0.98 38.45 0.85 168 3.41 42.35 0.83 192 3.63 48.99 0.79 216 3.86 54.52 0.75 240 2.57 55.72 0.76 264 5.07 60.43 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.52 -1.97 19.69 18.60 0.94 0.94 48 -1.84 1.72 23.48 23.72 0.96 0.95 72 0.09 4.05 29.78 30.34 0.94 0.94 96 4.20 40.03 0.92 120 3.65 51.20 0.89 144 5.55 61.26 0.86 168 8.57 67.67 0.85 192 7.69 76.85 0.82 216 6.44 84.93 0.79 240 5.09 89.32 0.79 264 9.85 98.20 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.55 1.65 1.59 0.84 0.85 48 -0.35 -0.50 1.79 1.76 0.87 0.88 72 -0.28 -0.42 1.99 1.92 0.86 0.88 96 -0.36 2.23 0.86 120 -0.30 2.61 0.80 144 -0.31 2.82 0.75 168 -0.28 3.05 0.69 192 -0.20 3.35 0.63 216 -0.14 3.53 0.60 240 -0.03 3.74 0.58 264 0.11 3.88 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 145 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.12 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.86 48 0.13 0.21 1.06 1.04 0.88 0.89 72 0.17 0.27 1.26 1.24 0.87 0.87 96 0.26 1.52 0.84 120 0.26 1.80 0.81 144 0.33 2.05 0.78 168 0.40 2.20 0.76 192 0.41 2.44 0.74 216 0.39 2.59 0.72 240 0.36 2.70 0.70 264 0.46 2.87 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 160 12 UTC = 158 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.01 1.18 1.15 0.87 0.86 48 -0.10 0.01 1.45 1.44 0.85 0.85 72 -0.07 0.05 1.68 1.66 0.84 0.84 96 0.12 1.97 0.82 120 0.25 2.29 0.77 144 0.31 2.54 0.72 168 0.25 2.74 0.70 192 0.19 3.00 0.64 216 0.09 3.13 0.58 240 0.18 3.16 0.59 264 0.33 3.44 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 158 12 UTC = 155 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.83 3.50 3.58 48 -0.93 -0.86 3.92 3.97 72 -1.01 -0.93 4.42 4.49 96 -0.98 5.14 120 -1.04 5.89 144 -1.06 6.34 168 -1.13 6.64 192 -1.19 7.26 216 -1.26 7.52 240 -1.30 7.78 264 -1.30 7.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.71 3.70 3.73 48 -1.03 -0.77 4.44 4.49 72 -1.09 -0.88 5.32 5.28 96 -0.90 6.30 120 -0.86 7.53 144 -0.84 8.41 168 -0.87 8.75 192 -0.99 9.60 216 -1.12 10.14 240 -1.05 10.21 264 -0.90 10.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 158 12 UTC = 156 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.52 5.22 5.32 48 -0.75 -0.79 6.77 7.07 72 -1.05 -0.93 8.29 8.51 96 -0.86 10.47 120 -0.95 12.28 144 -0.75 14.03 168 -0.93 14.72 192 -1.11 15.71 216 -1.05 16.86 240 -0.95 17.48 264 -0.53 18.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -2.10 6.44 6.73 0.98 0.98 48 0.41 -0.99 9.51 11.64 0.97 0.96 72 0.29 -0.70 14.51 19.14 0.92 0.89 96 -1.15 25.37 0.88 120 -2.34 36.86 0.80 144 -3.41 41.42 0.70 168 -0.74 49.91 0.62 192 2.56 46.60 0.70 216 -9.14 63.11 0.42 240 -9.07 67.43 0.41 264 -3.66 66.63 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.73 -7.28 10.13 11.96 0.98 0.98 48 -4.06 -6.44 13.96 17.10 0.97 0.98 72 -3.78 -6.36 22.62 26.80 0.91 0.91 96 -7.02 37.16 0.90 120 -8.38 48.32 0.84 144 -11.26 56.81 0.81 168 -8.36 65.09 0.74 192 -4.33 68.20 0.71 216 -16.90 76.63 0.59 240 -17.55 90.24 0.54 264 -14.34 95.10 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.53 -6.91 12.58 14.01 0.98 0.98 48 -5.45 -6.38 17.71 20.28 0.98 0.98 72 -5.83 -5.96 25.85 31.02 0.95 0.94 96 -7.55 44.84 0.90 120 -8.43 58.33 0.87 144 -9.73 70.50 0.82 168 -6.89 73.23 0.83 192 -5.69 88.56 0.73 216 -16.51 91.14 0.70 240 -20.13 111.85 0.58 264 -14.43 115.70 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.25 1.25 1.12 0.88 0.86 48 -0.14 -0.28 1.46 1.43 0.88 0.86 72 -0.13 -0.32 1.77 1.79 0.82 0.76 96 -0.39 2.18 0.77 120 -0.38 2.31 0.78 144 -0.26 2.50 0.69 168 -0.31 2.78 0.57 192 -0.48 2.82 0.67 216 -0.34 3.00 0.50 240 -0.41 3.12 0.56 264 -0.51 3.79 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 0.03 0.98 0.97 0.88 0.92 48 -0.06 0.01 1.12 1.14 0.90 0.92 72 -0.05 0.10 1.37 1.53 0.87 0.86 96 0.04 1.91 0.82 120 0.04 2.19 0.77 144 -0.09 2.54 0.74 168 -0.09 2.50 0.77 192 0.02 2.88 0.64 216 -0.03 2.75 0.66 240 -0.10 3.01 0.65 264 -0.13 3.25 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 0.00 1.10 1.24 0.91 0.92 48 -0.31 -0.17 1.36 1.50 0.93 0.92 72 -0.34 -0.21 1.72 2.04 0.86 0.78 96 -0.25 2.31 0.83 120 -0.30 2.75 0.72 144 -0.11 3.19 0.72 168 -0.06 3.47 0.63 192 -0.40 3.65 0.61 216 -0.34 3.43 0.71 240 -0.29 3.77 0.60 264 -0.38 3.95 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.61 3.94 3.92 48 -0.52 -0.61 4.54 4.65 72 -0.43 -0.34 5.45 5.74 96 -0.12 6.75 120 -0.07 7.40 144 -0.07 8.39 168 -0.08 9.47 192 0.25 9.29 216 0.72 10.31 240 -0.12 10.39 264 -0.42 10.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.78 4.82 4.82 48 -0.86 -0.72 5.76 6.06 72 -0.82 -0.37 6.81 7.84 96 -0.24 9.17 120 0.24 10.79 144 0.51 11.68 168 -0.09 13.17 192 0.01 12.49 216 0.92 14.49 240 0.72 14.58 264 0.46 15.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.51 4.86 5.31 48 -0.86 -0.13 5.95 6.65 72 -1.03 -0.25 7.34 8.15 96 -0.01 9.87 120 0.57 12.54 144 0.36 13.95 168 -0.14 16.39 192 0.58 17.00 216 1.19 18.94 240 0.03 19.41 264 0.99 21.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.28 -4.44 8.93 9.38 0.75 0.74 48 -4.57 -4.87 9.58 10.06 0.82 0.81 72 -4.98 -5.52 10.37 10.97 0.80 0.79 96 -6.26 11.46 0.76 120 -6.72 11.99 0.75 144 -7.25 12.94 0.75 168 -7.32 13.33 0.73 192 -7.49 14.16 0.63 216 -7.79 15.07 0.56 240 -8.09 15.62 0.53 264 -8.78 16.83 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.89 -5.35 11.61 11.18 0.66 0.66 48 -5.72 -5.21 11.98 11.65 0.74 0.76 72 -6.18 -5.78 12.60 12.40 0.74 0.75 96 -6.80 13.04 0.71 120 -7.53 13.60 0.71 144 -8.18 14.39 0.71 168 -8.35 14.70 0.71 192 -8.56 15.50 0.64 216 -8.83 16.19 0.57 240 -9.01 17.06 0.54 264 -9.61 18.05 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.33 -7.49 14.46 14.07 0.67 0.65 48 -9.49 -8.55 15.79 15.39 0.78 0.75 72 -10.58 -9.57 17.15 16.57 0.77 0.75 96 -11.12 18.13 0.73 120 -12.36 19.52 0.71 144 -13.37 20.91 0.71 168 -13.72 21.78 0.72 192 -13.95 22.94 0.66 216 -13.90 23.89 0.61 240 -13.91 25.17 0.57 264 -14.37 25.94 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.43 1.15 1.13 0.46 0.44 48 -0.44 -0.45 1.19 1.18 0.57 0.55 72 -0.45 -0.44 1.21 1.19 0.61 0.59 96 -0.43 1.20 0.58 120 -0.40 1.24 0.55 144 -0.38 1.29 0.54 168 -0.39 1.35 0.56 192 -0.40 1.43 0.57 216 -0.40 1.42 0.60 240 -0.39 1.48 0.60 264 -0.39 1.50 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.23 0.77 0.76 0.57 0.50 48 0.18 0.27 0.81 0.79 0.64 0.61 72 0.17 0.28 0.84 0.82 0.67 0.65 96 0.24 0.85 0.62 120 0.21 0.86 0.61 144 0.18 0.89 0.59 168 0.16 0.92 0.60 192 0.14 0.97 0.57 216 0.16 1.01 0.56 240 0.16 1.03 0.54 264 0.17 1.08 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.38 0.68 0.70 0.56 0.56 48 -0.47 -0.51 0.79 0.81 0.64 0.63 72 -0.51 -0.55 0.85 0.87 0.65 0.64 96 -0.58 0.92 0.63 120 -0.61 0.96 0.61 144 -0.63 0.99 0.59 168 -0.65 1.02 0.59 192 -0.66 1.06 0.57 216 -0.64 1.09 0.56 240 -0.62 1.10 0.54 264 -0.61 1.11 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.47 3.26 3.33 48 -0.57 -0.47 3.60 3.64 72 -0.53 -0.41 3.92 3.94 96 -0.41 4.22 120 -0.40 4.38 144 -0.42 4.56 168 -0.38 4.84 192 -0.27 5.14 216 -0.20 5.30 240 -0.28 5.46 264 -0.42 5.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -0.93 3.66 3.65 48 -0.94 -1.00 3.93 3.95 72 -0.99 -0.99 4.19 4.16 96 -0.98 4.48 120 -0.99 4.79 144 -1.00 5.05 168 -1.01 5.36 192 -0.99 5.74 216 -0.96 6.02 240 -1.04 6.23 264 -1.17 6.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.77 4.65 4.61 48 -1.03 -0.94 5.39 5.33 72 -1.09 -1.00 6.01 6.08 96 -0.94 6.76 120 -0.99 7.39 144 -0.92 8.01 168 -0.89 8.49 192 -0.86 8.98 216 -0.83 9.40 240 -0.80 9.68 264 -0.84 9.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.18 -3.36 8.92 9.31 0.97 0.97 48 -3.55 -3.87 11.80 12.30 0.98 0.97 72 -2.90 -3.50 15.93 16.53 0.96 0.96 96 -3.32 21.94 0.93 120 -3.25 29.51 0.88 144 -2.98 37.39 0.82 168 -2.44 43.45 0.77 192 -2.19 49.42 0.72 216 -2.52 52.33 0.69 240 -3.07 54.35 0.68 264 -2.61 57.83 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.41 -4.03 11.74 11.50 0.98 0.98 48 -4.09 -3.73 15.71 15.53 0.98 0.98 72 -2.90 -2.74 21.65 21.74 0.97 0.97 96 -2.10 30.40 0.94 120 -1.43 41.76 0.90 144 -0.50 53.81 0.84 168 0.25 62.88 0.80 192 0.37 71.64 0.75 216 -0.16 77.55 0.71 240 -0.72 81.15 0.70 264 0.30 86.37 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 413 12 UTC = 407 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.60 -4.91 17.93 17.31 0.98 0.98 48 -5.25 -4.37 23.92 23.48 0.98 0.98 72 -4.28 -3.52 33.69 33.03 0.97 0.97 96 -3.21 47.17 0.95 120 -2.54 64.78 0.91 144 -1.15 82.00 0.86 168 -0.43 94.40 0.82 192 -0.71 108.00 0.77 216 -1.89 118.22 0.73 240 -3.16 124.99 0.71 264 -2.76 134.25 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 415 12 UTC = 407 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.37 1.44 1.43 0.88 0.88 48 -0.36 -0.38 1.61 1.59 0.91 0.91 72 -0.37 -0.37 1.83 1.80 0.90 0.90 96 -0.34 2.10 0.89 120 -0.29 2.48 0.85 144 -0.26 2.87 0.80 168 -0.23 3.20 0.76 192 -0.19 3.51 0.71 216 -0.16 3.82 0.66 240 -0.13 4.16 0.61 264 -0.05 4.35 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 429 12 UTC = 418 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.08 0.88 0.86 0.92 0.92 48 0.11 0.13 1.07 1.05 0.93 0.93 72 0.13 0.16 1.34 1.33 0.91 0.92 96 0.17 1.72 0.89 120 0.19 2.13 0.85 144 0.24 2.50 0.80 168 0.25 2.78 0.76 192 0.24 3.05 0.72 216 0.22 3.30 0.67 240 0.19 3.48 0.64 264 0.19 3.65 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 453 12 UTC = 444 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.01 1.12 1.10 0.90 0.90 48 -0.11 -0.09 1.41 1.40 0.89 0.89 72 -0.16 -0.14 1.72 1.72 0.86 0.87 96 -0.18 2.10 0.83 120 -0.18 2.47 0.78 144 -0.18 2.77 0.74 168 -0.19 2.97 0.71 192 -0.22 3.19 0.66 216 -0.27 3.40 0.62 240 -0.28 3.48 0.60 264 -0.25 3.58 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 450 12 UTC = 440 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.76 3.54 3.56 48 -0.86 -0.83 4.04 4.02 72 -0.92 -0.89 4.71 4.69 96 -0.90 5.49 120 -0.98 6.41 144 -0.96 7.21 168 -1.03 7.78 192 -0.99 8.43 216 -1.00 8.87 240 -1.03 9.21 264 -1.03 9.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 417 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.69 3.74 3.70 48 -0.89 -0.78 4.60 4.59 72 -0.97 -0.88 5.77 5.73 96 -0.85 7.08 120 -0.85 8.76 144 -0.86 10.17 168 -0.91 11.13 192 -0.90 12.18 216 -0.94 12.94 240 -0.91 13.43 264 -0.88 13.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 444 12 UTC = 435 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.66 5.19 5.16 48 -0.81 -0.86 6.83 6.91 72 -1.01 -1.00 8.98 8.98 96 -0.95 11.52 120 -0.87 14.39 144 -0.87 16.99 168 -0.93 18.64 192 -0.92 20.34 216 -0.98 21.53 240 -0.88 22.38 264 -0.92 23.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 441 12 UTC = 432 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -2.34 9.56 9.95 0.98 0.98 48 0.69 -2.05 12.83 13.58 0.98 0.98 72 0.35 -2.68 17.91 18.61 0.96 0.96 96 -3.42 26.65 0.93 120 -3.45 36.52 0.87 144 -5.81 42.05 0.82 168 -4.46 47.28 0.78 192 -2.26 55.84 0.71 216 -5.62 64.85 0.65 240 -5.12 66.88 0.65 264 -3.36 68.88 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.16 -7.58 12.59 13.42 0.98 0.98 48 -5.40 -7.60 16.73 18.30 0.98 0.98 72 -5.66 -8.31 24.58 26.75 0.96 0.96 96 -8.96 36.64 0.93 120 -9.59 50.80 0.87 144 -13.43 59.42 0.85 168 -14.26 70.40 0.78 192 -10.90 78.95 0.73 216 -16.59 89.27 0.71 240 -18.48 96.11 0.68 264 -17.86 99.32 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.71 -8.93 15.72 16.67 0.99 0.99 48 -7.26 -8.30 21.58 23.14 0.98 0.98 72 -7.95 -8.72 30.45 34.13 0.97 0.97 96 -9.91 47.01 0.94 120 -10.14 66.89 0.89 144 -16.02 80.26 0.85 168 -20.27 96.00 0.81 192 -17.00 109.67 0.75 216 -22.02 120.76 0.72 240 -24.71 130.38 0.67 264 -24.41 134.80 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.72 1.74 1.75 0.90 0.90 48 -0.56 -0.74 1.96 1.94 0.91 0.93 72 -0.56 -0.74 2.22 2.19 0.91 0.92 96 -0.74 2.62 0.89 120 -0.76 3.07 0.82 144 -0.79 3.41 0.79 168 -0.90 4.05 0.76 192 -0.95 4.43 0.74 216 -0.92 4.87 0.68 240 -0.74 5.29 0.64 264 -0.81 5.54 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.08 0.96 0.93 0.91 0.93 48 -0.12 -0.07 1.14 1.13 0.93 0.94 72 -0.09 -0.04 1.43 1.52 0.92 0.91 96 -0.06 1.81 0.89 120 -0.03 2.32 0.82 144 -0.15 2.64 0.79 168 -0.35 3.05 0.75 192 -0.25 3.34 0.71 216 -0.42 3.59 0.67 240 -0.63 3.96 0.61 264 -0.61 3.95 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.14 1.11 1.10 0.92 0.92 48 -0.06 0.11 1.33 1.29 0.93 0.93 72 -0.09 0.11 1.67 1.66 0.90 0.89 96 0.13 1.94 0.86 120 0.15 2.36 0.80 144 0.07 2.72 0.76 168 0.00 3.04 0.68 192 -0.12 3.21 0.67 216 0.11 3.33 0.63 240 0.24 3.66 0.59 264 0.08 3.68 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.58 4.51 4.37 48 -0.70 -0.55 4.99 4.88 72 -0.62 -0.44 5.78 5.67 96 -0.45 6.60 120 -0.36 7.70 144 -0.29 8.70 168 -0.43 9.44 192 -0.32 9.71 216 0.21 10.92 240 -0.22 11.23 264 -0.38 11.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.44 4.76 4.62 48 -0.67 -0.37 5.67 5.77 72 -0.60 -0.31 6.72 7.03 96 -0.24 8.56 120 -0.08 10.09 144 0.22 11.77 168 -0.04 13.18 192 -0.21 13.58 216 0.15 15.27 240 0.13 16.41 264 -0.05 16.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.28 5.41 5.56 48 -0.85 -0.18 6.76 6.91 72 -0.86 -0.05 8.36 8.88 96 0.25 11.21 120 0.32 13.79 144 0.10 16.26 168 0.01 18.91 192 -0.24 20.42 216 0.60 22.23 240 0.00 23.88 264 -0.27 24.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 37 ---------------------------------------------------------