VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY OCTOBER 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.82 0.86 1.00 1.00 15.9 15.9 48 -0.03 -0.03 1.50 1.53 0.98 0.98 25.2 25.2 72 -0.02 -0.03 2.29 2.34 0.96 0.96 34.4 34.2 96 0.01 3.32 0.93 43.4 120 0.04 4.43 0.87 51.8 144 0.06 5.67 0.79 59.7 168 0.10 6.95 0.68 66.9 192 0.12 7.88 0.59 72.5 216 0.11 8.74 0.50 76.3 240 0.13 9.48 0.40 79.8 264 0.20 10.20 0.32 82.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.06 6.14 6.45 1.00 1.00 10.0 10.0 48 0.08 0.07 12.93 13.19 0.99 0.99 18.1 18.3 72 0.37 0.29 21.51 21.74 0.98 0.98 26.7 26.9 96 0.73 32.49 0.95 35.4 120 0.78 44.33 0.90 43.2 144 0.84 58.06 0.83 50.6 168 1.10 72.63 0.72 57.8 192 1.59 84.94 0.62 63.8 216 2.15 95.42 0.52 68.0 240 2.45 105.21 0.41 72.2 264 3.23 113.39 0.31 74.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.29 8.49 8.73 1.00 1.00 8.5 8.4 48 -1.15 -1.12 18.00 18.11 0.99 0.99 15.3 15.3 72 -1.95 -1.82 30.26 30.46 0.98 0.98 22.8 23.1 96 -2.34 45.90 0.95 30.9 120 -3.17 62.85 0.90 38.4 144 -3.79 82.65 0.83 45.4 168 -3.92 105.39 0.72 52.5 192 -3.42 122.52 0.62 58.4 216 -2.53 136.50 0.53 62.4 240 -2.11 150.41 0.42 66.2 264 -1.48 160.94 0.34 68.9 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.04 0.45 0.45 0.99 0.99 48 0.05 0.05 0.83 0.83 0.98 0.98 72 0.06 0.06 1.25 1.26 0.95 0.95 96 0.05 1.73 0.90 120 0.02 2.21 0.84 144 0.00 2.73 0.76 168 0.00 3.26 0.65 192 0.00 3.67 0.56 216 0.04 3.98 0.48 240 0.02 4.29 0.40 264 0.04 4.50 0.33 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.14 0.62 0.61 0.98 0.98 48 -0.28 -0.27 1.04 1.04 0.95 0.95 72 -0.39 -0.37 1.50 1.50 0.89 0.89 96 -0.43 1.94 0.81 120 -0.50 2.36 0.72 144 -0.54 2.76 0.62 168 -0.58 3.08 0.54 192 -0.61 3.35 0.46 216 -0.60 3.52 0.40 240 -0.58 3.72 0.33 264 -0.61 3.77 0.29 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.09 1.99 1.99 48 -0.19 -0.19 3.57 3.60 72 -0.26 -0.26 5.24 5.30 96 -0.35 7.00 120 -0.36 8.61 144 -0.39 10.25 168 -0.41 11.95 192 -0.40 13.36 216 -0.44 14.40 240 -0.43 15.33 264 -0.48 15.91 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.13 3.12 3.11 48 -0.26 -0.26 5.36 5.35 72 -0.35 -0.33 7.85 7.91 96 -0.41 10.71 120 -0.50 13.40 144 -0.54 16.15 168 -0.62 18.98 192 -0.67 21.19 216 -0.64 22.83 240 -0.66 24.22 264 -0.70 25.03 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.18 3.10 3.13 0.97 0.97 24.4 24.9 48 0.26 0.29 4.43 4.61 0.94 0.94 32.5 32.8 72 0.23 0.30 5.57 5.80 0.91 0.90 37.6 37.9 96 0.14 6.64 0.87 41.7 120 0.05 7.49 0.84 45.2 144 -0.01 8.41 0.80 48.3 168 -0.60 9.46 0.75 50.7 192 -1.02 10.37 0.70 53.1 216 -1.22 11.15 0.65 55.5 240 -1.60 11.97 0.59 57.6 264 -2.14 12.82 0.53 59.5 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.70 4.00 4.16 0.98 0.98 20.8 21.0 48 -2.15 -2.63 6.62 6.78 0.96 0.96 29.0 29.1 72 -3.82 -3.95 8.87 8.90 0.94 0.94 35.1 35.2 96 -5.51 11.08 0.91 40.5 120 -6.94 13.45 0.87 45.3 144 -8.03 15.84 0.82 49.7 168 -9.32 18.05 0.77 53.4 192 -10.16 20.20 0.71 56.7 216 -10.66 21.84 0.66 59.6 240 -11.07 23.58 0.60 62.1 264 -11.63 25.61 0.52 64.6 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.04 0.41 0.43 0.96 0.97 48 -0.06 -0.05 0.61 0.62 0.91 0.93 72 -0.07 -0.05 0.73 0.75 0.88 0.90 96 -0.04 0.83 0.87 120 -0.02 0.93 0.84 144 -0.02 1.02 0.81 168 -0.03 1.12 0.77 192 -0.04 1.24 0.72 216 -0.06 1.31 0.69 240 -0.05 1.39 0.66 264 -0.03 1.49 0.61 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.32 0.41 0.44 0.94 0.94 48 -0.45 -0.50 0.63 0.68 0.87 0.85 72 -0.54 -0.59 0.77 0.81 0.79 0.78 96 -0.65 0.92 0.70 120 -0.72 1.02 0.63 144 -0.76 1.10 0.56 168 -0.79 1.15 0.50 192 -0.81 1.20 0.45 216 -0.82 1.23 0.41 240 -0.81 1.24 0.38 264 -0.80 1.27 0.34 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.11 1.40 1.40 48 -0.18 -0.15 2.10 2.08 72 -0.23 -0.20 2.57 2.54 96 -0.21 2.91 120 -0.22 3.24 144 -0.21 3.57 168 -0.20 3.86 192 -0.18 4.11 216 -0.18 4.35 240 -0.16 4.60 264 -0.18 4.79 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.32 2.82 2.86 48 -0.46 -0.53 4.26 4.36 72 -0.60 -0.66 5.42 5.49 96 -0.70 6.51 120 -0.70 7.45 144 -0.69 8.36 168 -0.66 9.14 192 -0.63 9.81 216 -0.52 10.38 240 -0.37 10.92 264 -0.29 11.38 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.93 0.91 1.00 1.00 12.4 12.7 48 0.01 0.00 1.83 1.74 0.99 0.98 22.0 22.0 72 0.00 -0.01 2.92 2.80 0.96 0.96 31.0 30.9 96 -0.02 4.00 0.92 39.0 120 -0.02 5.28 0.85 46.2 144 -0.01 6.62 0.77 53.2 168 0.06 7.88 0.67 58.6 192 0.11 9.07 0.57 63.5 216 0.17 10.01 0.47 67.1 240 0.22 10.64 0.40 69.8 264 0.24 11.13 0.34 71.5 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.63 0.45 7.70 7.75 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.4 48 0.84 0.68 16.08 15.98 0.99 0.99 17.3 17.2 72 0.90 0.82 26.87 26.66 0.97 0.97 25.1 24.9 96 0.83 39.46 0.93 32.4 120 1.02 53.63 0.88 39.3 144 1.44 68.40 0.80 45.8 168 1.94 81.46 0.71 50.8 192 2.34 94.55 0.61 55.5 216 2.52 107.07 0.50 59.9 240 2.73 115.38 0.42 62.8 264 2.45 120.80 0.36 63.9 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 -0.02 10.00 10.18 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.8 48 0.13 0.07 20.03 20.13 0.99 0.99 13.6 13.5 72 -0.08 0.08 33.60 33.19 0.97 0.97 19.9 19.8 96 -0.03 50.13 0.94 26.5 120 0.01 68.00 0.89 32.7 144 0.30 86.90 0.82 38.8 168 0.23 104.35 0.74 44.0 192 -0.12 121.14 0.65 48.3 216 -1.00 139.41 0.53 53.0 240 -1.45 152.59 0.44 56.2 264 -2.29 161.61 0.37 57.9 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 0.49 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 0.02 0.02 0.93 0.93 0.97 0.97 72 0.02 0.02 1.40 1.39 0.93 0.93 96 0.02 1.91 0.88 120 0.03 2.37 0.80 144 0.06 2.86 0.71 168 0.05 3.30 0.61 192 0.04 3.67 0.52 216 0.01 4.05 0.40 240 -0.03 4.29 0.33 264 -0.09 4.45 0.28 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 0.61 0.61 0.99 0.99 48 -0.14 -0.12 1.06 1.05 0.97 0.97 72 -0.17 -0.15 1.51 1.50 0.93 0.93 96 -0.17 1.98 0.88 120 -0.22 2.46 0.81 144 -0.25 2.92 0.74 168 -0.29 3.30 0.66 192 -0.35 3.66 0.57 216 -0.41 3.98 0.49 240 -0.41 4.25 0.41 264 -0.42 4.41 0.36 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.03 2.31 2.30 48 -0.01 -0.04 4.29 4.24 72 0.00 -0.03 6.19 6.16 96 -0.06 8.10 120 -0.08 9.95 144 -0.16 11.78 168 -0.22 13.26 192 -0.33 14.58 216 -0.41 15.93 240 -0.42 16.93 264 -0.39 17.31 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.06 3.24 3.22 48 -0.11 -0.07 5.55 5.53 72 -0.12 -0.08 8.01 7.99 96 -0.08 10.68 120 -0.19 13.20 144 -0.27 15.80 168 -0.42 18.17 192 -0.56 20.22 216 -0.64 22.61 240 -0.72 24.33 264 -0.75 25.20 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.88 -2.44 7.90 8.01 0.98 0.98 48 -3.27 -3.62 10.85 11.66 0.98 0.98 72 -2.18 -4.24 14.85 16.49 0.97 0.96 96 -4.01 21.57 0.94 120 -6.21 27.89 0.91 144 -7.14 36.82 0.84 168 -4.74 47.15 0.76 192 -4.71 56.18 0.67 216 -8.52 59.00 0.66 240 -11.37 63.16 0.63 264 -13.47 69.78 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.36 -5.27 10.16 10.06 0.98 0.99 48 -5.55 -6.29 14.47 15.19 0.98 0.98 72 -3.50 -6.39 20.34 21.67 0.97 0.97 96 -5.16 29.96 0.95 120 -7.14 39.96 0.92 144 -9.25 53.71 0.87 168 -8.61 68.02 0.79 192 -6.63 84.77 0.68 216 -7.16 90.83 0.65 240 -10.45 96.51 0.62 264 -13.46 106.52 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.88 -7.59 13.89 14.48 0.99 0.99 48 -7.73 -9.63 21.81 23.28 0.98 0.98 72 -6.19 -10.43 32.07 34.31 0.97 0.97 96 -8.78 48.78 0.94 120 -10.40 64.58 0.92 144 -12.81 85.32 0.87 168 -11.72 107.82 0.80 192 -5.04 129.97 0.70 216 -2.39 137.78 0.68 240 -5.20 147.60 0.65 264 -9.43 160.76 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.55 1.42 1.69 0.92 0.91 48 -0.32 -0.53 1.62 1.88 0.94 0.93 72 -0.24 -0.50 1.89 2.11 0.93 0.93 96 -0.42 2.44 0.91 120 -0.35 2.91 0.86 144 -0.40 3.46 0.80 168 -0.59 4.08 0.74 192 -0.53 4.79 0.68 216 -0.40 5.10 0.65 240 -0.36 5.26 0.60 264 -0.49 5.36 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.03 0.84 0.84 0.94 0.94 48 0.01 -0.02 1.06 1.10 0.95 0.95 72 0.05 0.02 1.39 1.44 0.94 0.94 96 0.07 1.84 0.91 120 0.09 2.29 0.88 144 0.01 2.73 0.84 168 -0.06 3.37 0.77 192 0.12 3.96 0.70 216 0.33 4.09 0.69 240 0.23 4.28 0.64 264 0.20 4.52 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.02 0.96 0.98 0.93 0.92 48 -0.12 -0.14 1.22 1.25 0.91 0.91 72 -0.20 -0.25 1.52 1.58 0.89 0.89 96 -0.25 1.92 0.85 120 -0.23 2.19 0.82 144 -0.16 2.50 0.79 168 -0.05 2.76 0.77 192 0.08 3.14 0.74 216 0.22 3.25 0.69 240 0.48 3.56 0.64 264 0.53 3.63 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -1.07 3.78 3.91 48 -0.84 -1.13 4.29 4.48 72 -0.91 -1.24 4.89 5.11 96 -1.28 6.01 120 -1.41 7.04 144 -1.26 8.10 168 -1.02 9.43 192 -0.90 10.53 216 -0.89 11.08 240 -0.63 11.14 264 -0.77 11.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.49 3.97 3.90 48 -0.83 -0.62 4.86 4.82 72 -0.89 -0.68 6.06 6.13 96 -0.71 7.54 120 -0.65 9.18 144 -0.66 11.00 168 -0.73 13.38 192 -0.52 15.65 216 -0.37 16.11 240 0.11 16.83 264 0.12 17.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.67 5.35 5.32 48 -0.87 -0.87 7.02 7.21 72 -0.91 -0.92 8.94 9.44 96 -0.82 12.15 120 -0.79 15.06 144 -0.95 17.97 168 -0.67 22.14 192 -0.53 25.76 216 -0.56 26.33 240 -0.11 27.62 264 -0.10 28.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.70 -4.60 7.53 8.32 0.97 0.97 48 -3.80 -5.33 10.34 10.64 0.98 0.98 72 -3.23 -4.51 14.75 14.14 0.97 0.97 96 -3.50 21.23 0.94 120 -2.37 28.88 0.91 144 -1.98 35.76 0.87 168 -4.05 48.65 0.77 192 -4.12 58.75 0.66 216 -8.69 72.19 0.54 240 -14.07 82.46 0.48 264 -25.33 89.44 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.32 -7.13 10.73 11.49 0.98 0.98 48 -5.50 -7.50 15.45 15.36 0.98 0.98 72 -4.74 -6.34 23.17 21.55 0.97 0.98 96 -4.01 30.93 0.95 120 -2.89 44.95 0.92 144 -1.35 57.84 0.87 168 -1.74 78.77 0.80 192 2.59 94.78 0.72 216 1.03 108.77 0.61 240 -4.59 124.33 0.50 264 -15.86 134.81 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.98 -8.06 13.81 14.57 0.98 0.98 48 -6.12 -8.58 20.69 21.41 0.98 0.98 72 -6.30 -7.90 32.36 31.07 0.97 0.97 96 -5.76 44.45 0.95 120 -4.54 67.06 0.91 144 -0.73 89.44 0.85 168 2.64 117.64 0.79 192 11.10 139.57 0.72 216 9.70 157.13 0.61 240 3.74 180.53 0.49 264 -7.29 194.78 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 0.05 1.25 1.19 0.86 0.86 48 -0.16 0.05 1.41 1.35 0.90 0.91 72 -0.13 0.06 1.61 1.53 0.90 0.91 96 0.14 1.86 0.89 120 0.21 2.30 0.85 144 0.22 2.60 0.84 168 0.38 3.25 0.76 192 0.71 3.93 0.68 216 0.99 4.31 0.61 240 0.96 4.81 0.53 264 0.91 5.42 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.07 0.84 0.80 0.93 0.93 48 0.05 -0.05 1.09 1.05 0.94 0.94 72 0.06 -0.05 1.48 1.35 0.91 0.92 96 0.05 1.79 0.89 120 0.04 2.23 0.87 144 0.16 2.88 0.79 168 0.35 3.48 0.73 192 0.57 3.89 0.68 216 0.64 4.29 0.59 240 0.64 4.80 0.49 264 0.68 5.10 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.14 1.00 0.95 0.92 0.91 48 0.07 0.08 1.29 1.21 0.91 0.91 72 -0.07 0.03 1.70 1.52 0.86 0.88 96 -0.12 1.89 0.85 120 -0.23 2.34 0.80 144 -0.29 2.86 0.68 168 -0.26 3.10 0.62 192 -0.22 3.31 0.57 216 -0.16 3.46 0.53 240 -0.11 3.54 0.51 264 -0.31 3.67 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.74 3.56 3.52 48 -0.84 -0.83 3.94 3.95 72 -0.88 -0.88 4.55 4.53 96 -0.93 5.45 120 -1.00 6.41 144 -1.06 7.20 168 -0.83 8.49 192 -0.63 9.71 216 -0.21 10.82 240 0.15 11.85 264 0.06 12.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.52 4.07 3.99 48 -0.65 -0.62 5.24 5.17 72 -0.68 -0.67 6.61 6.47 96 -0.71 8.40 120 -0.72 10.21 144 -0.85 12.09 168 -0.63 14.16 192 -0.49 16.17 216 -0.54 17.88 240 0.28 19.80 264 -0.19 20.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.67 5.13 5.15 48 -0.67 -0.60 7.01 6.94 72 -0.60 -0.55 9.42 9.33 96 -0.72 12.55 120 -0.79 16.35 144 -0.74 19.36 168 -0.37 21.62 192 -0.09 25.19 216 -0.58 27.60 240 0.30 30.70 264 -0.83 32.04 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.32 0.58 9.48 9.24 0.97 0.97 48 0.72 1.56 12.44 12.20 0.96 0.96 72 -0.16 0.83 15.61 15.31 0.95 0.95 96 0.32 19.63 0.93 120 1.04 24.74 0.89 144 2.81 31.00 0.84 168 6.26 35.24 0.80 192 9.80 38.11 0.78 216 12.11 43.10 0.72 240 13.58 45.79 0.64 264 14.67 52.79 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 122 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.33 1.02 11.71 11.84 0.97 0.96 48 2.69 4.28 15.82 16.48 0.96 0.96 72 3.27 5.36 20.72 21.10 0.95 0.95 96 5.31 27.40 0.93 120 5.63 34.42 0.91 144 6.23 42.44 0.87 168 7.99 47.07 0.85 192 12.20 52.81 0.82 216 16.00 60.51 0.78 240 19.85 66.44 0.75 264 25.06 73.95 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 134 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.91 -0.04 18.81 18.00 0.96 0.96 48 -0.10 3.39 23.08 23.35 0.96 0.96 72 -0.48 3.68 29.13 29.30 0.95 0.95 96 2.79 37.67 0.94 120 2.18 48.20 0.91 144 0.84 59.34 0.88 168 0.25 68.45 0.85 192 2.87 77.52 0.82 216 7.80 88.28 0.79 240 10.33 97.72 0.75 264 18.86 106.74 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.30 1.60 1.65 0.87 0.89 48 0.04 -0.11 1.80 1.86 0.89 0.90 72 0.21 0.09 2.04 2.10 0.88 0.89 96 0.20 2.39 0.88 120 0.17 2.68 0.87 144 0.06 2.99 0.84 168 -0.01 3.25 0.81 192 0.03 3.56 0.78 216 0.15 3.99 0.74 240 0.34 4.31 0.70 264 0.51 4.54 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 144 12 UTC = 143 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 0.03 0.99 1.00 0.92 0.92 48 0.08 0.14 1.19 1.21 0.93 0.93 72 0.10 0.18 1.42 1.44 0.92 0.91 96 0.14 1.71 0.90 120 0.09 2.09 0.88 144 0.02 2.43 0.84 168 -0.03 2.74 0.81 192 -0.02 2.99 0.78 216 0.08 3.30 0.75 240 0.20 3.66 0.70 264 0.48 3.98 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 160 12 UTC = 157 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 0.09 1.20 1.18 0.90 0.89 48 -0.18 -0.04 1.45 1.42 0.89 0.89 72 -0.27 -0.11 1.77 1.72 0.86 0.85 96 -0.16 2.03 0.83 120 -0.19 2.34 0.81 144 -0.26 2.64 0.75 168 -0.42 2.89 0.73 192 -0.63 3.08 0.69 216 -0.68 3.23 0.68 240 -0.79 3.41 0.65 264 -0.93 3.65 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 158 12 UTC = 155 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -0.84 3.83 3.66 48 -1.15 -1.01 4.26 4.08 72 -1.26 -1.11 4.80 4.60 96 -1.16 5.30 120 -1.01 5.91 144 -0.87 6.62 168 -1.03 7.14 192 -1.12 7.54 216 -1.11 8.06 240 -1.25 8.20 264 -1.02 8.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.55 4.20 4.25 48 -0.83 -0.62 5.01 5.11 72 -0.89 -0.66 5.88 6.05 96 -0.65 7.19 120 -0.52 8.24 144 -0.57 9.20 168 -0.66 9.83 192 -0.89 10.63 216 -1.06 11.47 240 -1.14 11.89 264 -1.28 12.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 156 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.50 4.82 4.81 48 -0.66 -0.69 5.92 6.01 72 -0.68 -0.73 7.07 7.37 96 -0.69 9.06 120 -0.65 10.59 144 -0.81 12.19 168 -0.88 13.47 192 -1.05 14.98 216 -1.12 16.49 240 -1.19 17.63 264 -1.19 18.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 156 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.59 -1.79 6.00 6.17 0.99 0.99 48 -1.22 -0.70 7.44 9.39 0.99 0.99 72 -2.02 -2.04 10.53 14.26 0.98 0.98 96 -4.10 19.94 0.94 120 -3.40 26.94 0.89 144 -4.12 37.80 0.80 168 -4.54 38.33 0.85 192 -3.91 38.60 0.82 216 -5.43 44.81 0.75 240 -6.44 51.86 0.75 264 -2.48 52.89 0.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.96 -5.97 9.79 10.91 0.98 0.99 48 -5.74 -5.14 11.89 13.99 0.99 0.98 72 -6.54 -5.38 17.13 23.16 0.97 0.97 96 -7.56 31.01 0.92 120 -5.79 38.57 0.92 144 -3.29 50.25 0.84 168 -6.39 64.33 0.78 192 -3.41 59.66 0.79 216 -6.67 69.18 0.76 240 -13.09 84.83 0.73 264 -5.37 82.35 0.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.62 -5.70 12.25 12.73 0.99 0.99 48 -6.38 -6.46 16.52 17.07 0.99 0.99 72 -8.94 -7.87 24.06 26.58 0.98 0.97 96 -12.10 39.73 0.94 120 -9.34 49.50 0.91 144 -5.32 63.24 0.86 168 -11.27 82.21 0.77 192 -10.60 78.30 0.77 216 -16.01 91.56 0.76 240 -23.56 112.22 0.75 264 -16.88 108.78 0.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.40 1.25 1.05 0.91 0.93 48 -0.29 -0.34 1.38 1.14 0.93 0.92 72 -0.21 -0.26 1.50 1.35 0.92 0.93 96 -0.21 1.61 0.91 120 -0.28 1.88 0.86 144 -0.07 2.30 0.80 168 -0.20 2.76 0.77 192 0.04 3.07 0.65 216 -0.21 3.20 0.71 240 -0.54 3.93 0.63 264 -0.41 4.37 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.12 0.90 1.02 0.92 0.94 48 0.11 0.07 1.05 1.15 0.94 0.95 72 0.11 0.08 1.30 1.48 0.92 0.91 96 0.02 1.63 0.91 120 0.14 2.01 0.87 144 0.28 2.36 0.81 168 0.08 2.99 0.72 192 0.18 2.87 0.71 216 0.06 3.53 0.62 240 -0.25 3.60 0.69 264 -0.12 3.69 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 -0.04 1.17 1.15 0.91 0.94 48 0.04 -0.11 1.29 1.33 0.95 0.96 72 -0.05 -0.17 1.51 1.72 0.94 0.91 96 -0.17 1.87 0.92 120 -0.24 2.31 0.91 144 -0.29 2.72 0.83 168 -0.37 3.09 0.72 192 -0.68 3.13 0.75 216 -0.52 3.70 0.65 240 -0.19 3.88 0.67 264 -0.37 4.33 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.86 3.92 3.87 48 -0.66 -0.78 4.31 4.41 72 -0.65 -0.87 4.79 4.98 96 -0.94 5.48 120 -1.08 6.12 144 -0.79 7.38 168 -0.99 7.94 192 -1.22 8.37 216 -1.37 9.21 240 -1.88 10.09 264 -1.91 10.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.49 4.11 4.22 48 -0.59 -0.61 4.84 5.10 72 -0.40 -0.44 5.89 6.22 96 -0.41 7.05 120 0.01 8.39 144 -0.12 10.12 168 -0.14 10.79 192 -0.26 11.40 216 -0.25 14.12 240 -0.09 14.30 264 -0.71 14.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.82 5.08 5.24 48 -0.72 -0.97 6.05 6.19 72 -0.74 -0.84 7.37 7.58 96 -1.08 9.53 120 -1.20 11.24 144 -1.42 14.45 168 -1.30 15.70 192 -0.60 17.69 216 -0.32 19.84 240 -0.60 19.78 264 -1.24 21.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.92 -3.51 8.73 10.10 0.77 0.75 48 -2.83 -3.41 9.32 10.86 0.85 0.84 72 -3.22 -4.03 10.11 11.72 0.86 0.84 96 -4.89 12.42 0.83 120 -5.26 13.22 0.81 144 -5.32 14.31 0.79 168 -5.79 15.21 0.76 192 -5.99 16.06 0.71 216 -5.89 17.24 0.64 240 -6.03 17.77 0.62 264 -6.30 18.39 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.91 -4.90 11.60 12.02 0.69 0.68 48 -4.77 -4.59 11.85 12.46 0.82 0.80 72 -5.46 -5.25 12.67 13.23 0.83 0.81 96 -6.22 13.73 0.81 120 -6.80 14.51 0.78 144 -7.19 15.59 0.74 168 -7.86 16.48 0.72 192 -8.25 17.67 0.67 216 -8.22 18.92 0.59 240 -8.29 19.44 0.59 264 -8.31 20.11 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.65 -7.19 15.64 14.37 0.67 0.66 48 -8.93 -8.18 16.85 15.52 0.78 0.77 72 -10.70 -9.61 18.51 16.90 0.80 0.79 96 -11.44 18.36 0.78 120 -12.83 20.10 0.77 144 -13.94 21.62 0.74 168 -15.23 23.17 0.74 192 -15.88 25.08 0.67 216 -15.84 25.77 0.62 240 -15.71 26.33 0.57 264 -15.69 27.77 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.30 1.18 1.11 0.40 0.42 48 -0.36 -0.29 1.25 1.16 0.49 0.51 72 -0.37 -0.30 1.26 1.17 0.55 0.56 96 -0.30 1.17 0.56 120 -0.28 1.18 0.55 144 -0.26 1.21 0.53 168 -0.26 1.23 0.52 192 -0.26 1.29 0.48 216 -0.27 1.32 0.46 240 -0.28 1.37 0.44 264 -0.27 1.40 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.19 0.75 0.76 0.50 0.49 48 0.15 0.19 0.78 0.79 0.60 0.58 72 0.12 0.19 0.82 0.83 0.63 0.61 96 0.16 0.86 0.62 120 0.13 0.89 0.63 144 0.09 0.90 0.61 168 0.06 0.94 0.58 192 0.04 0.98 0.57 216 0.03 0.99 0.55 240 0.05 1.03 0.53 264 0.07 1.07 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.40 0.71 0.68 0.58 0.62 48 -0.50 -0.53 0.81 0.80 0.65 0.67 72 -0.55 -0.58 0.87 0.87 0.67 0.70 96 -0.62 0.93 0.70 120 -0.67 1.01 0.68 144 -0.72 1.10 0.66 168 -0.77 1.16 0.63 192 -0.79 1.21 0.60 216 -0.80 1.24 0.58 240 -0.79 1.25 0.55 264 -0.78 1.27 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.66 3.40 3.45 48 -0.78 -0.63 3.74 3.80 72 -0.82 -0.67 4.12 4.03 96 -0.74 4.32 120 -0.78 4.64 144 -0.88 5.00 168 -0.94 5.25 192 -0.96 5.47 216 -0.97 5.61 240 -0.88 5.89 264 -0.88 5.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -0.92 3.62 3.65 48 -1.04 -1.03 3.95 3.96 72 -1.05 -1.02 4.26 4.27 96 -1.04 4.59 120 -1.05 4.93 144 -1.11 5.39 168 -1.17 5.76 192 -1.15 6.16 216 -1.24 6.23 240 -1.25 6.48 264 -1.34 6.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.85 4.64 4.63 48 -1.04 -1.01 5.35 5.41 72 -1.25 -1.18 5.99 6.04 96 -1.22 6.75 120 -1.34 7.49 144 -1.36 8.20 168 -1.37 8.65 192 -1.40 9.10 216 -1.42 9.55 240 -1.42 10.01 264 -1.56 10.36 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.11 -2.42 9.04 9.40 0.98 0.98 48 -2.47 -2.70 12.26 12.65 0.98 0.98 72 -2.48 -2.86 16.64 16.97 0.97 0.97 96 -2.87 22.72 0.95 120 -3.32 30.40 0.92 144 -2.75 39.01 0.87 168 -1.46 49.84 0.80 192 0.40 57.66 0.73 216 -0.25 64.56 0.68 240 -2.20 70.77 0.62 264 -4.39 77.82 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.25 -3.30 11.48 11.74 0.98 0.98 48 -2.79 -2.72 16.03 16.50 0.98 0.98 72 -2.14 -2.06 22.48 22.93 0.97 0.97 96 -1.49 31.52 0.96 120 -2.23 42.68 0.93 144 -2.38 55.67 0.89 168 -1.75 70.53 0.83 192 1.92 83.91 0.76 216 4.07 93.97 0.70 240 3.39 103.42 0.65 264 2.69 112.04 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 417 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.45 -5.21 17.28 17.26 0.98 0.98 48 -5.35 -5.25 23.24 23.79 0.98 0.98 72 -5.73 -5.52 32.66 33.16 0.97 0.97 96 -5.66 46.07 0.96 120 -7.13 62.72 0.93 144 -8.36 82.09 0.89 168 -8.36 104.10 0.83 192 -3.67 122.73 0.76 216 0.67 136.76 0.71 240 0.98 150.58 0.66 264 0.94 161.31 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 417 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.25 1.48 1.55 0.89 0.90 48 -0.14 -0.18 1.68 1.74 0.91 0.92 72 -0.07 -0.10 1.92 1.98 0.91 0.91 96 -0.03 2.30 0.89 120 -0.02 2.69 0.87 144 -0.08 3.08 0.84 168 -0.11 3.57 0.80 192 0.02 4.10 0.75 216 0.19 4.51 0.71 240 0.31 4.82 0.67 264 0.37 5.13 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 429 12 UTC = 417 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.01 0.90 0.90 0.94 0.94 48 0.02 0.03 1.12 1.14 0.95 0.95 72 0.03 0.05 1.44 1.45 0.93 0.93 96 0.05 1.83 0.91 120 0.02 2.28 0.88 144 -0.05 2.76 0.84 168 -0.05 3.27 0.79 192 0.03 3.70 0.74 216 0.19 4.04 0.70 240 0.25 4.39 0.64 264 0.35 4.61 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 456 12 UTC = 445 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.03 1.10 1.10 0.92 0.92 48 -0.10 -0.08 1.37 1.36 0.91 0.91 72 -0.20 -0.18 1.72 1.72 0.88 0.88 96 -0.25 2.08 0.85 120 -0.29 2.44 0.81 144 -0.31 2.82 0.76 168 -0.37 3.08 0.73 192 -0.46 3.33 0.69 216 -0.45 3.49 0.67 240 -0.40 3.69 0.62 264 -0.45 3.81 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 453 12 UTC = 440 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.83 3.70 3.67 48 -0.95 -0.93 4.17 4.15 72 -1.04 -1.03 4.78 4.78 96 -1.07 5.60 120 -1.06 6.47 144 -1.02 7.36 168 -0.99 8.41 192 -0.97 9.27 216 -0.87 10.02 240 -0.76 10.46 264 -0.71 10.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 414 12 UTC = 404 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.56 3.97 3.99 48 -0.72 -0.65 4.93 5.00 72 -0.80 -0.72 6.11 6.22 96 -0.78 7.63 120 -0.73 9.16 144 -0.79 10.60 168 -0.87 12.28 192 -0.97 13.78 216 -0.97 14.83 240 -0.72 15.74 264 -0.74 16.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 446 12 UTC = 434 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.58 4.81 4.85 48 -0.67 -0.72 6.29 6.40 72 -0.73 -0.81 8.21 8.41 96 -0.87 10.89 120 -0.90 13.52 144 -0.99 15.95 168 -1.00 18.56 192 -1.04 21.09 216 -1.00 22.71 240 -0.77 24.33 264 -0.83 25.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 443 12 UTC = 432 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.98 -3.10 8.83 10.03 0.98 0.98 48 -1.45 -2.49 10.89 13.08 0.98 0.98 72 -1.63 -3.32 14.55 17.66 0.97 0.97 96 -5.02 23.91 0.94 120 -5.01 30.73 0.91 144 -6.18 40.34 0.82 168 -7.20 44.46 0.82 192 -8.37 48.37 0.78 216 -7.20 54.86 0.73 240 -8.93 62.17 0.68 264 -9.11 64.51 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.91 -5.91 11.75 13.39 0.98 0.98 48 -5.27 -5.03 15.32 16.84 0.98 0.98 72 -5.11 -5.43 21.69 24.43 0.97 0.97 96 -7.66 33.03 0.95 120 -8.38 42.40 0.92 144 -8.69 55.36 0.86 168 -11.26 63.46 0.84 192 -11.88 70.33 0.82 216 -11.96 80.19 0.77 240 -15.51 90.90 0.72 264 -13.74 92.14 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.50 -9.04 15.59 17.43 0.98 0.98 48 -7.16 -7.96 20.89 22.50 0.98 0.98 72 -7.35 -7.72 30.26 31.83 0.97 0.97 96 -10.24 43.37 0.95 120 -11.68 56.29 0.93 144 -12.16 73.19 0.88 168 -17.83 85.08 0.85 192 -20.56 95.82 0.83 216 -21.01 109.25 0.79 240 -23.60 126.02 0.74 264 -22.53 131.47 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.46 1.54 1.52 0.90 0.91 48 -0.49 -0.44 1.70 1.72 0.93 0.94 72 -0.47 -0.45 1.86 1.94 0.93 0.93 96 -0.46 2.16 0.92 120 -0.58 2.51 0.88 144 -0.55 3.03 0.85 168 -0.68 3.48 0.79 192 -0.55 3.90 0.75 216 -0.65 4.40 0.70 240 -0.67 4.87 0.66 264 -0.78 5.08 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.05 0.95 0.99 0.93 0.93 48 0.01 -0.03 1.15 1.15 0.94 0.94 72 0.05 0.04 1.45 1.49 0.92 0.92 96 -0.02 1.73 0.90 120 -0.01 1.98 0.87 144 0.05 2.50 0.81 168 -0.08 2.87 0.76 192 -0.15 3.11 0.72 216 -0.18 3.50 0.67 240 -0.29 3.78 0.64 264 -0.18 3.96 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 -0.02 1.17 1.12 0.92 0.93 48 0.02 -0.05 1.35 1.35 0.94 0.93 72 -0.02 -0.05 1.59 1.66 0.93 0.91 96 0.01 1.92 0.88 120 -0.01 2.18 0.86 144 -0.09 2.65 0.80 168 -0.23 2.82 0.77 192 -0.36 3.01 0.75 216 -0.30 3.35 0.70 240 -0.20 3.53 0.67 264 -0.34 3.84 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.70 4.55 4.45 48 -0.71 -0.65 4.93 4.98 72 -0.65 -0.54 5.43 5.52 96 -0.48 6.13 120 -0.55 6.90 144 -0.63 8.28 168 -0.68 8.79 192 -0.93 9.28 216 -1.22 9.91 240 -0.94 10.66 264 -0.64 11.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.76 4.49 4.57 48 -0.51 -0.75 5.30 5.43 72 -0.28 -0.59 6.44 6.53 96 -0.78 7.60 120 -0.53 9.11 144 -0.55 10.90 168 -0.65 11.80 192 -0.79 12.72 216 -1.00 13.97 240 -0.49 15.32 264 -0.32 15.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.58 5.68 5.74 48 -0.83 -0.48 6.88 7.12 72 -0.79 -0.43 8.20 8.72 96 -0.57 10.59 120 -0.44 12.67 144 -0.34 15.73 168 -0.39 17.42 192 -0.36 19.10 216 -0.20 21.09 240 0.29 23.05 264 -0.22 24.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 39 ---------------------------------------------------------