VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY NOVEMBER 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.09 0.90 0.95 0.99 0.99 15.6 16.0 48 0.17 0.17 1.58 1.65 0.98 0.98 24.2 24.8 72 0.26 0.25 2.36 2.40 0.96 0.96 32.2 32.8 96 0.33 3.44 0.92 41.5 120 0.40 4.62 0.86 49.7 144 0.46 5.83 0.78 57.0 168 0.53 7.01 0.68 63.9 192 0.54 8.22 0.57 70.0 216 0.46 9.14 0.47 74.2 240 0.35 9.86 0.40 77.6 264 0.27 10.35 0.32 79.9 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.34 6.61 6.88 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.4 48 -0.49 -0.57 13.32 13.76 0.99 0.99 16.9 17.1 72 -0.37 -0.59 21.87 22.51 0.98 0.97 24.5 25.0 96 -0.49 33.99 0.94 33.2 120 -0.38 46.64 0.89 40.5 144 -0.22 60.18 0.81 47.3 168 0.34 73.23 0.72 53.8 192 0.23 86.34 0.60 59.7 216 -0.54 97.02 0.50 64.0 240 -0.98 105.13 0.42 67.9 264 -1.67 110.66 0.36 70.0 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.59 8.67 9.04 1.00 1.00 7.6 7.8 48 -1.67 -1.72 17.94 18.46 0.99 0.99 13.3 13.6 72 -2.72 -2.82 29.87 30.29 0.98 0.98 19.5 19.9 96 -3.76 45.77 0.95 27.0 120 -4.39 63.16 0.90 33.9 144 -4.72 82.98 0.82 40.9 168 -5.03 101.33 0.73 47.1 192 -5.67 119.43 0.62 52.5 216 -6.89 135.08 0.52 56.7 240 -7.19 146.87 0.43 60.8 264 -7.53 154.66 0.37 63.1 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.48 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 0.00 -0.01 0.88 0.89 0.98 0.98 72 -0.02 -0.03 1.32 1.33 0.95 0.95 96 -0.06 1.83 0.90 120 -0.08 2.37 0.83 144 -0.09 2.90 0.74 168 -0.11 3.38 0.64 192 -0.12 3.83 0.54 216 -0.13 4.25 0.43 240 -0.11 4.58 0.33 264 -0.10 4.81 0.27 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.10 0.65 0.65 0.98 0.98 48 -0.22 -0.20 1.07 1.08 0.95 0.95 72 -0.29 -0.27 1.50 1.52 0.91 0.90 96 -0.34 1.99 0.83 120 -0.40 2.45 0.74 144 -0.46 2.86 0.64 168 -0.51 3.24 0.54 192 -0.56 3.54 0.44 216 -0.60 3.78 0.37 240 -0.64 4.04 0.28 264 -0.62 4.14 0.24 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.09 2.13 2.15 48 -0.15 -0.18 3.81 3.86 72 -0.22 -0.25 5.51 5.65 96 -0.30 7.52 120 -0.30 9.27 144 -0.30 10.87 168 -0.38 12.49 192 -0.41 14.05 216 -0.44 15.21 240 -0.52 16.23 264 -0.54 16.73 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.09 3.18 3.18 48 -0.24 -0.18 5.29 5.35 72 -0.33 -0.27 7.59 7.68 96 -0.30 10.45 120 -0.31 13.28 144 -0.36 15.99 168 -0.40 18.47 192 -0.54 20.81 216 -0.67 22.64 240 -0.79 24.44 264 -0.72 25.28 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.10 3.20 3.38 0.97 0.96 25.1 25.7 48 -0.25 -0.27 4.73 4.99 0.93 0.92 33.1 33.7 72 -0.56 -0.59 5.88 6.19 0.89 0.88 38.1 39.0 96 -1.02 7.36 0.83 42.8 120 -1.51 8.37 0.78 46.1 144 -1.73 9.49 0.74 49.0 168 -1.91 10.27 0.70 51.5 192 -2.20 11.06 0.66 54.0 216 -2.36 11.90 0.62 55.8 240 -2.58 12.92 0.56 58.2 264 -2.74 13.69 0.49 60.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -1.09 4.06 4.12 0.99 0.99 18.7 18.8 48 -3.52 -3.60 7.07 7.07 0.97 0.97 26.1 26.2 72 -5.66 -5.66 10.11 9.96 0.94 0.95 31.8 32.1 96 -7.32 12.53 0.92 36.5 120 -8.93 14.99 0.88 40.9 144 -10.42 17.64 0.84 44.9 168 -11.76 20.59 0.77 49.0 192 -13.46 23.75 0.70 53.0 216 -14.99 26.31 0.65 56.4 240 -16.25 28.30 0.61 58.6 264 -17.06 29.93 0.56 61.0 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 0.39 0.42 0.96 0.97 48 -0.11 -0.10 0.62 0.63 0.91 0.92 72 -0.14 -0.12 0.76 0.78 0.86 0.88 96 -0.12 0.88 0.85 120 -0.11 0.97 0.82 144 -0.12 1.06 0.78 168 -0.13 1.15 0.75 192 -0.14 1.23 0.71 216 -0.14 1.31 0.67 240 -0.15 1.41 0.62 264 -0.18 1.48 0.58 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.30 0.41 0.44 0.95 0.94 48 -0.45 -0.49 0.64 0.67 0.88 0.87 72 -0.54 -0.58 0.78 0.81 0.81 0.80 96 -0.64 0.93 0.73 120 -0.69 1.02 0.66 144 -0.74 1.11 0.59 168 -0.79 1.19 0.53 192 -0.85 1.28 0.48 216 -0.89 1.35 0.43 240 -0.92 1.40 0.38 264 -0.95 1.46 0.31 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.12 1.40 1.40 48 -0.18 -0.18 2.08 2.06 72 -0.21 -0.22 2.54 2.54 96 -0.22 2.89 120 -0.23 3.21 144 -0.26 3.49 168 -0.28 3.75 192 -0.31 4.02 216 -0.34 4.25 240 -0.35 4.50 264 -0.31 4.77 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.29 2.90 2.95 48 -0.50 -0.52 4.38 4.44 72 -0.61 -0.62 5.51 5.62 96 -0.69 6.57 120 -0.70 7.47 144 -0.72 8.25 168 -0.72 9.07 192 -0.71 9.87 216 -0.62 10.58 240 -0.56 11.16 264 -0.48 11.80 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.07 0.85 0.83 1.00 1.00 12.8 13.0 48 -0.16 -0.15 1.63 1.56 0.99 0.99 22.1 22.1 72 -0.22 -0.21 2.56 2.41 0.97 0.97 30.7 30.5 96 -0.24 3.43 0.93 38.3 120 -0.25 4.58 0.88 45.5 144 -0.28 5.72 0.81 51.9 168 -0.33 6.75 0.73 57.0 192 -0.31 7.56 0.65 61.4 216 -0.18 8.30 0.59 64.9 240 -0.03 9.13 0.50 68.6 264 0.08 9.76 0.42 71.3 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.96 0.86 7.55 7.44 1.00 1.00 9.8 9.8 48 1.36 1.30 15.07 15.03 0.99 0.99 17.8 17.8 72 1.65 1.67 24.48 23.98 0.97 0.97 25.5 25.3 96 2.17 34.58 0.94 32.3 120 2.67 47.04 0.89 39.3 144 2.85 59.77 0.82 45.6 168 2.38 71.44 0.75 50.5 192 2.21 81.36 0.67 55.3 216 2.98 89.65 0.60 58.5 240 3.71 99.85 0.49 62.4 264 4.12 108.32 0.40 65.3 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.21 9.75 9.76 1.00 1.00 8.3 8.4 48 0.47 0.25 19.40 19.38 0.99 0.99 14.7 14.7 72 0.63 0.39 31.27 30.91 0.97 0.97 21.1 21.0 96 0.87 44.87 0.95 27.4 120 1.48 61.46 0.90 34.3 144 1.56 78.32 0.84 40.4 168 0.39 95.75 0.76 45.9 192 -1.39 110.02 0.68 50.6 216 -1.99 120.98 0.62 53.8 240 -2.30 135.22 0.51 58.0 264 -2.79 146.18 0.43 60.8 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.04 0.48 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 0.08 0.07 0.91 0.91 0.97 0.97 72 0.09 0.08 1.35 1.34 0.93 0.93 96 0.11 1.77 0.87 120 0.12 2.24 0.80 144 0.12 2.67 0.71 168 0.08 3.05 0.62 192 0.03 3.39 0.53 216 -0.01 3.62 0.46 240 -0.05 3.96 0.35 264 -0.09 4.19 0.27 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.12 0.59 0.59 0.99 0.99 48 -0.18 -0.19 1.03 1.04 0.97 0.97 72 -0.22 -0.22 1.49 1.49 0.93 0.93 96 -0.25 1.91 0.89 120 -0.26 2.35 0.83 144 -0.26 2.73 0.76 168 -0.29 3.06 0.71 192 -0.36 3.37 0.65 216 -0.45 3.64 0.58 240 -0.52 3.89 0.52 264 -0.56 4.06 0.48 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.10 2.20 2.18 48 -0.10 -0.14 3.99 3.98 72 -0.11 -0.16 5.74 5.66 96 -0.18 7.25 120 -0.16 8.97 144 -0.14 10.64 168 -0.13 11.94 192 -0.14 13.27 216 -0.23 14.20 240 -0.28 15.31 264 -0.34 16.09 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.10 3.18 3.19 48 -0.15 -0.14 5.51 5.50 72 -0.15 -0.17 7.79 7.70 96 -0.18 10.07 120 -0.21 12.64 144 -0.24 15.01 168 -0.30 17.39 192 -0.37 19.38 216 -0.43 20.93 240 -0.43 22.91 264 -0.39 24.13 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.72 -2.60 8.26 8.30 0.98 0.98 48 -3.45 -3.82 11.57 12.36 0.98 0.98 72 -2.73 -4.02 16.32 17.47 0.97 0.97 96 -3.86 24.76 0.93 120 -4.81 32.24 0.86 144 -7.90 39.83 0.83 168 -8.99 47.00 0.80 192 -9.93 55.70 0.75 216 -15.19 61.03 0.71 240 -19.68 64.17 0.66 264 -23.81 73.60 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.92 -6.76 11.05 11.63 0.99 0.99 48 -7.48 -8.57 16.82 17.73 0.99 0.99 72 -6.48 -8.75 24.17 26.19 0.98 0.97 96 -8.18 37.73 0.93 120 -9.27 48.98 0.87 144 -14.13 61.00 0.84 168 -16.30 73.78 0.80 192 -17.99 88.07 0.72 216 -24.27 99.88 0.65 240 -28.81 104.32 0.62 264 -34.96 114.16 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.67 -8.13 15.04 15.23 0.99 0.99 48 -10.45 -10.99 23.97 24.63 0.99 0.99 72 -8.93 -11.37 33.47 36.06 0.98 0.97 96 -9.62 50.48 0.94 120 -10.93 67.56 0.91 144 -14.13 86.57 0.84 168 -19.19 106.67 0.81 192 -21.83 126.98 0.74 216 -29.17 146.16 0.66 240 -33.41 156.50 0.62 264 -37.11 161.02 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.65 1.51 1.65 0.93 0.93 48 -0.57 -0.75 1.73 1.86 0.95 0.95 72 -0.61 -0.84 2.00 2.18 0.94 0.93 96 -0.83 2.66 0.89 120 -0.85 3.18 0.82 144 -0.98 3.63 0.81 168 -1.20 4.11 0.80 192 -1.33 4.65 0.74 216 -1.50 5.19 0.69 240 -1.57 5.43 0.66 264 -1.61 5.71 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.07 0.90 0.93 0.96 0.96 48 -0.12 -0.11 1.20 1.21 0.96 0.96 72 -0.08 -0.10 1.53 1.59 0.94 0.93 96 -0.06 2.03 0.89 120 -0.04 2.54 0.85 144 -0.02 3.00 0.79 168 -0.06 3.52 0.75 192 -0.08 3.86 0.72 216 -0.15 4.35 0.66 240 -0.20 4.69 0.60 264 -0.30 4.82 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.08 1.12 1.13 0.94 0.93 48 -0.04 0.01 1.44 1.46 0.92 0.92 72 -0.01 0.01 1.81 1.84 0.89 0.89 96 0.07 2.28 0.85 120 0.01 2.69 0.80 144 -0.03 3.10 0.73 168 -0.18 3.52 0.71 192 -0.36 3.62 0.71 216 -0.29 3.91 0.65 240 -0.17 4.14 0.62 264 0.13 4.29 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -1.02 3.83 3.98 48 -0.94 -1.08 4.32 4.49 72 -0.87 -1.06 4.98 5.29 96 -0.97 6.41 120 -0.99 7.38 144 -0.85 8.31 168 -0.66 9.29 192 -0.71 10.27 216 -0.83 10.98 240 -1.14 11.34 264 -1.05 11.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.59 4.32 4.43 48 -0.72 -0.63 5.36 5.56 72 -0.64 -0.69 7.05 7.36 96 -0.64 9.39 120 -0.66 11.03 144 -0.63 12.51 168 -0.58 14.39 192 -0.56 16.17 216 -0.27 16.91 240 -0.44 18.11 264 -0.23 18.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.78 5.67 5.73 48 -0.81 -0.78 7.34 7.67 72 -0.62 -0.69 9.47 9.93 96 -0.61 12.49 120 -0.69 15.73 144 -0.76 18.69 168 -1.09 22.33 192 -0.93 25.03 216 -0.57 26.14 240 -0.65 29.05 264 -0.60 29.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.40 -4.82 8.64 9.33 0.98 0.98 48 -2.00 -5.58 11.65 12.58 0.98 0.98 72 -2.53 -4.60 15.52 16.58 0.97 0.97 96 -3.71 24.62 0.94 120 -1.88 33.55 0.91 144 -3.67 44.93 0.87 168 -3.28 59.08 0.77 192 -2.46 76.79 0.69 216 -9.32 95.90 0.62 240 -12.97 103.12 0.55 264 -11.52 99.94 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.44 -9.81 12.54 13.30 0.99 0.99 48 -9.00 -12.94 17.77 19.48 0.98 0.99 72 -10.83 -14.07 24.95 26.52 0.98 0.98 96 -14.53 37.19 0.97 120 -14.45 50.97 0.94 144 -14.41 67.06 0.89 168 -11.99 90.06 0.77 192 -12.28 116.36 0.70 216 -10.96 148.80 0.61 240 -11.47 160.23 0.57 264 -5.25 156.19 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.47 -12.67 16.34 17.52 0.99 0.99 48 -13.30 -18.12 24.55 27.25 0.99 0.99 72 -17.29 -21.53 36.07 38.91 0.98 0.98 96 -23.87 54.68 0.97 120 -25.73 73.72 0.95 144 -25.84 96.30 0.90 168 -22.58 130.38 0.79 192 -21.65 164.08 0.71 216 -13.31 206.63 0.62 240 -10.19 222.61 0.58 264 1.40 221.10 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.25 1.28 1.25 0.91 0.90 48 -0.57 -0.43 1.48 1.45 0.93 0.92 72 -0.68 -0.58 1.78 1.71 0.91 0.92 96 -0.64 2.06 0.90 120 -0.70 2.61 0.87 144 -0.80 3.05 0.84 168 -0.72 3.73 0.76 192 -0.82 4.59 0.64 216 -0.45 5.37 0.55 240 -0.18 5.66 0.51 264 0.12 5.53 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.16 0.85 0.83 0.95 0.96 48 -0.21 -0.26 1.11 1.10 0.96 0.96 72 -0.28 -0.38 1.49 1.52 0.94 0.93 96 -0.53 2.00 0.92 120 -0.68 2.63 0.88 144 -0.52 3.24 0.83 168 -0.48 4.02 0.70 192 -0.42 4.67 0.63 216 0.12 5.45 0.55 240 0.19 5.74 0.54 264 0.51 5.73 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.22 1.12 1.03 0.93 0.93 48 0.17 0.13 1.34 1.27 0.92 0.92 72 0.04 0.00 1.69 1.74 0.87 0.86 96 -0.05 2.09 0.81 120 -0.16 2.46 0.76 144 -0.36 2.84 0.69 168 -0.28 3.43 0.53 192 -0.33 3.58 0.46 216 -0.37 3.78 0.46 240 -0.19 3.97 0.52 264 -0.19 3.90 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.69 4.07 3.99 48 -0.84 -0.79 4.53 4.41 72 -0.81 -0.78 5.28 5.15 96 -1.02 6.23 120 -1.46 7.36 144 -1.10 8.63 168 -1.20 10.47 192 -1.29 11.45 216 -0.80 12.55 240 -0.31 13.05 264 0.06 13.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.44 4.17 4.07 48 -0.61 -0.51 5.28 5.04 72 -0.59 -0.55 6.51 6.68 96 -0.64 8.41 120 -0.78 10.26 144 -1.07 12.47 168 -1.37 15.44 192 -0.83 18.18 216 -0.58 21.01 240 -0.24 21.14 264 -0.38 21.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.74 5.12 4.91 48 -0.48 -0.62 6.58 6.26 72 -0.54 -0.72 8.77 9.05 96 -0.51 11.96 120 -0.26 15.14 144 -1.06 18.63 168 -1.05 23.32 192 -0.17 28.43 216 0.30 31.99 240 0.06 32.35 264 0.06 33.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.90 0.89 11.20 10.76 0.97 0.97 48 2.73 2.81 13.98 13.99 0.97 0.97 72 3.71 4.07 16.96 16.89 0.96 0.96 96 5.09 21.03 0.94 120 6.08 25.79 0.92 144 7.40 31.62 0.88 168 8.60 36.68 0.84 192 9.41 42.31 0.81 216 13.10 48.37 0.78 240 16.87 54.63 0.72 264 19.64 59.47 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 123 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 -0.11 12.79 12.73 0.97 0.97 48 1.63 2.53 16.92 17.10 0.97 0.97 72 3.54 5.02 22.35 23.57 0.96 0.96 96 6.99 31.17 0.93 120 8.49 39.05 0.92 144 10.36 47.71 0.88 168 11.53 55.94 0.84 192 13.20 64.69 0.81 216 13.58 73.71 0.78 240 17.33 83.20 0.72 264 19.32 87.71 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 132 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.68 -1.89 19.23 18.30 0.97 0.97 48 -1.81 -0.03 24.23 23.50 0.97 0.97 72 -0.81 2.20 31.76 32.26 0.96 0.96 96 3.58 43.52 0.93 120 3.76 55.78 0.92 144 5.85 68.99 0.88 168 7.59 80.29 0.83 192 10.94 92.41 0.78 216 10.86 102.95 0.75 240 17.04 115.38 0.71 264 16.48 124.43 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.26 1.72 1.76 0.89 0.90 48 -0.05 -0.17 1.93 1.96 0.92 0.92 72 0.03 -0.06 2.17 2.20 0.91 0.91 96 0.03 2.57 0.89 120 0.10 2.96 0.86 144 0.18 3.32 0.84 168 0.28 3.81 0.79 192 0.26 4.28 0.76 216 0.01 4.74 0.74 240 -0.04 5.17 0.71 264 -0.06 5.53 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.19 1.02 1.06 0.94 0.94 48 -0.16 -0.18 1.23 1.25 0.95 0.95 72 -0.13 -0.15 1.47 1.54 0.94 0.93 96 -0.12 1.94 0.90 120 -0.09 2.43 0.89 144 -0.09 2.86 0.85 168 -0.08 3.19 0.79 192 -0.02 3.67 0.74 216 -0.11 4.03 0.70 240 -0.08 4.36 0.67 264 -0.23 4.68 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 161 12 UTC = 159 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.12 1.23 1.20 0.91 0.91 48 -0.10 0.01 1.47 1.44 0.91 0.91 72 -0.20 -0.04 1.76 1.75 0.90 0.90 96 -0.10 2.08 0.86 120 -0.15 2.41 0.84 144 -0.18 2.73 0.81 168 -0.22 2.96 0.77 192 -0.23 3.34 0.70 216 -0.18 3.71 0.62 240 -0.12 3.93 0.61 264 -0.23 4.00 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 155 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -1.04 3.84 3.81 48 -1.10 -1.10 4.23 4.19 72 -1.10 -1.15 4.63 4.63 96 -1.18 5.17 120 -1.13 5.74 144 -1.10 6.38 168 -0.98 6.99 192 -0.81 7.54 216 -0.77 8.45 240 -0.94 8.89 264 -0.96 8.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.48 4.27 4.27 48 -0.75 -0.59 5.05 5.07 72 -0.83 -0.72 5.90 6.02 96 -0.76 7.12 120 -0.74 8.39 144 -0.81 9.40 168 -0.83 10.28 192 -0.92 11.41 216 -0.81 12.51 240 -0.73 13.77 264 -0.58 14.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 158 12 UTC = 156 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.58 4.77 4.65 48 -0.84 -0.81 6.01 5.85 72 -0.97 -0.96 7.38 7.23 96 -1.14 9.07 120 -1.22 11.01 144 -1.21 13.09 168 -1.32 14.62 192 -1.41 15.88 216 -1.37 17.70 240 -1.29 19.36 264 -0.97 20.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 156 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.84 -4.03 6.99 6.99 0.98 0.99 48 -4.54 -3.89 8.11 9.47 0.98 0.99 72 -4.55 -3.82 10.38 11.54 0.98 0.97 96 -4.29 17.90 0.98 120 -2.95 22.50 0.92 144 -1.56 28.79 0.82 168 -5.59 32.57 0.83 192 -5.54 41.26 0.66 216 -4.41 42.20 0.68 240 -4.22 52.01 0.62 264 -0.93 53.16 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.47 -7.79 10.60 11.48 0.97 0.98 48 -7.66 -6.72 11.97 14.06 0.99 0.99 72 -7.09 -6.79 14.89 17.04 0.98 0.96 96 -7.28 24.89 0.97 120 -6.46 29.80 0.94 144 -5.54 43.96 0.80 168 -9.86 50.63 0.81 192 -13.42 60.96 0.72 216 -9.88 65.08 0.66 240 -11.94 76.34 0.66 264 -9.40 81.79 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.77 -6.56 12.31 12.28 0.98 0.98 48 -6.95 -5.70 15.12 16.55 0.99 0.99 72 -7.35 -7.47 19.92 21.70 0.98 0.98 96 -8.78 28.17 0.97 120 -9.65 37.11 0.93 144 -8.72 54.29 0.84 168 -15.20 69.27 0.77 192 -22.64 80.57 0.72 216 -14.62 94.23 0.57 240 -23.67 103.15 0.58 264 -18.31 111.48 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.50 1.27 1.22 0.89 0.89 48 -0.45 -0.40 1.34 1.23 0.93 0.92 72 -0.39 -0.34 1.46 1.27 0.93 0.90 96 -0.22 1.67 0.90 120 -0.11 1.85 0.89 144 -0.08 2.22 0.85 168 -0.16 2.47 0.82 192 -0.30 2.76 0.80 216 -0.19 3.29 0.65 240 -0.20 4.09 0.52 264 -0.13 4.47 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.23 0.92 0.89 0.86 0.88 48 0.25 0.27 1.01 1.06 0.90 0.91 72 0.25 0.24 1.14 1.20 0.90 0.89 96 0.24 1.33 0.89 120 0.22 1.60 0.84 144 0.16 1.95 0.76 168 0.09 2.30 0.77 192 -0.13 2.53 0.71 216 0.25 2.93 0.55 240 -0.07 2.87 0.61 264 -0.18 3.31 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 -0.03 0.96 0.90 0.86 0.92 48 -0.02 -0.18 1.09 1.08 0.90 0.85 72 -0.10 -0.25 1.28 1.18 0.89 0.90 96 -0.33 1.51 0.87 120 -0.43 1.65 0.90 144 -0.48 2.03 0.80 168 -0.38 2.39 0.73 192 -0.30 2.86 0.68 216 -0.64 2.80 0.71 240 -0.61 3.12 0.70 264 -0.75 3.44 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.73 3.68 3.73 48 -0.67 -0.78 3.92 4.02 72 -0.68 -0.78 4.30 4.40 96 -0.71 4.89 120 -0.88 5.48 144 -1.03 6.31 168 -1.07 6.58 192 -0.81 7.69 216 -0.90 8.50 240 -0.73 9.01 264 -0.88 10.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.54 3.94 3.94 48 -0.50 -0.77 4.40 4.92 72 -0.43 -0.64 5.16 5.49 96 -0.40 6.07 120 -0.62 7.19 144 -0.62 8.72 168 -0.51 9.50 192 -0.43 11.00 216 0.19 12.72 240 0.24 13.41 264 0.37 14.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -1.15 5.06 4.93 48 -0.88 -1.26 6.06 6.17 72 -0.87 -1.20 7.19 7.63 96 -1.59 8.42 120 -2.00 10.26 144 -1.48 11.95 168 -1.47 13.31 192 -1.22 15.32 216 -0.19 18.51 240 -0.57 20.10 264 -0.27 20.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.15 -3.45 8.95 10.39 0.68 0.71 48 -3.53 -3.85 9.44 11.01 0.79 0.81 72 -4.13 -4.68 10.05 11.64 0.82 0.83 96 -5.49 12.29 0.79 120 -6.41 13.05 0.77 144 -6.47 13.98 0.75 168 -6.69 14.84 0.72 192 -6.63 15.33 0.72 216 -6.78 16.04 0.72 240 -6.64 17.30 0.64 264 -6.69 17.81 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.34 -5.53 11.74 12.26 0.60 0.59 48 -5.91 -6.14 12.13 12.85 0.74 0.75 72 -6.98 -7.24 13.01 13.68 0.77 0.78 96 -8.48 14.44 0.78 120 -9.78 15.42 0.76 144 -10.28 16.45 0.74 168 -11.09 17.54 0.71 192 -11.51 18.26 0.69 216 -12.03 19.26 0.67 240 -12.31 20.29 0.63 264 -12.79 21.04 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.79 -7.58 15.66 14.63 0.61 0.65 48 -10.36 -9.94 17.39 16.29 0.74 0.78 72 -12.79 -12.28 19.49 18.17 0.78 0.81 96 -14.57 20.10 0.82 120 -16.98 22.26 0.81 144 -18.45 24.42 0.78 168 -20.08 26.63 0.75 192 -21.62 28.72 0.71 216 -23.10 30.89 0.67 240 -24.17 32.35 0.66 264 -25.21 33.70 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.34 1.06 1.07 0.49 0.43 48 -0.42 -0.37 1.13 1.11 0.63 0.54 72 -0.45 -0.39 1.15 1.12 0.67 0.62 96 -0.40 1.13 0.62 120 -0.39 1.15 0.61 144 -0.42 1.19 0.60 168 -0.45 1.24 0.60 192 -0.48 1.28 0.59 216 -0.51 1.32 0.57 240 -0.50 1.37 0.55 264 -0.50 1.40 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.18 0.77 0.76 0.56 0.54 48 0.14 0.17 0.82 0.78 0.61 0.62 72 0.10 0.15 0.85 0.83 0.63 0.63 96 0.10 0.86 0.62 120 0.07 0.88 0.62 144 0.04 0.93 0.60 168 0.00 0.97 0.60 192 -0.04 1.02 0.58 216 -0.05 1.04 0.58 240 -0.11 1.08 0.55 264 -0.13 1.12 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.40 0.69 0.66 0.60 0.61 48 -0.56 -0.55 0.83 0.80 0.65 0.68 72 -0.62 -0.62 0.91 0.89 0.65 0.69 96 -0.68 0.97 0.67 120 -0.75 1.05 0.66 144 -0.80 1.13 0.65 168 -0.86 1.21 0.62 192 -0.92 1.28 0.60 216 -0.96 1.35 0.59 240 -1.01 1.39 0.60 264 -1.06 1.45 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.51 3.37 3.34 48 -0.46 -0.48 3.65 3.63 72 -0.46 -0.48 3.86 3.86 96 -0.49 4.10 120 -0.54 4.28 144 -0.60 4.50 168 -0.61 4.86 192 -0.67 5.24 216 -0.69 5.48 240 -0.65 5.79 264 -0.59 6.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -0.91 3.62 3.61 48 -1.07 -1.08 3.93 3.98 72 -1.08 -1.10 4.20 4.28 96 -1.07 4.52 120 -0.93 4.88 144 -0.86 5.21 168 -0.84 5.71 192 -0.87 6.12 216 -0.86 6.46 240 -0.85 6.76 264 -0.82 6.98 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.75 4.39 4.40 48 -0.84 -0.93 5.11 5.19 72 -0.95 -1.04 5.72 5.93 96 -1.14 6.53 120 -1.23 7.05 144 -1.30 7.49 168 -1.27 8.02 192 -1.18 8.61 216 -1.14 9.11 240 -1.07 9.29 264 -0.90 9.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.22 -1.88 10.05 10.20 0.98 0.98 48 -1.10 -1.61 13.14 13.73 0.98 0.98 72 -0.59 -0.96 17.33 18.10 0.98 0.97 96 -0.26 24.40 0.96 120 0.20 32.14 0.93 144 -0.28 41.48 0.89 168 -0.07 50.74 0.84 192 0.40 61.90 0.78 216 -0.74 70.71 0.74 240 -2.10 76.26 0.70 264 -2.18 80.80 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 393 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.36 -3.91 12.59 12.80 0.99 0.99 48 -3.76 -4.02 17.48 18.06 0.99 0.98 72 -3.32 -3.45 24.43 25.68 0.98 0.98 96 -2.79 35.35 0.96 120 -2.92 46.80 0.93 144 -3.99 59.74 0.90 168 -4.25 73.58 0.85 192 -3.86 89.33 0.80 216 -4.36 104.95 0.73 240 -4.76 113.16 0.69 264 -4.60 119.36 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 414 12 UTC = 405 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.47 -5.88 18.20 18.19 0.99 0.98 48 -7.06 -7.27 24.67 25.11 0.99 0.98 72 -7.74 -7.56 34.31 35.27 0.98 0.98 96 -7.63 48.85 0.96 120 -8.95 65.28 0.94 144 -10.12 83.82 0.90 168 -10.95 102.92 0.86 192 -10.45 124.32 0.81 216 -10.58 145.81 0.74 240 -9.52 158.59 0.69 264 -8.34 167.39 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 413 12 UTC = 405 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.33 1.55 1.60 0.92 0.92 48 -0.30 -0.34 1.76 1.80 0.94 0.94 72 -0.30 -0.35 2.03 2.07 0.93 0.93 96 -0.33 2.49 0.91 120 -0.34 2.95 0.89 144 -0.39 3.39 0.86 168 -0.39 3.86 0.82 192 -0.43 4.42 0.77 216 -0.47 4.99 0.70 240 -0.43 5.32 0.66 264 -0.36 5.63 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 425 12 UTC = 414 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.11 0.94 0.96 0.95 0.95 48 -0.13 -0.14 1.18 1.20 0.96 0.96 72 -0.14 -0.14 1.51 1.56 0.95 0.94 96 -0.17 2.01 0.92 120 -0.21 2.53 0.89 144 -0.22 3.03 0.85 168 -0.24 3.51 0.81 192 -0.22 4.01 0.76 216 -0.17 4.49 0.70 240 -0.14 4.82 0.66 264 -0.16 5.10 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 455 12 UTC = 444 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.11 1.17 1.16 0.93 0.93 48 -0.01 0.02 1.44 1.43 0.92 0.93 72 -0.08 -0.04 1.80 1.80 0.90 0.90 96 -0.07 2.21 0.87 120 -0.12 2.59 0.84 144 -0.17 2.98 0.80 168 -0.19 3.34 0.75 192 -0.26 3.66 0.70 216 -0.28 3.94 0.64 240 -0.24 4.13 0.62 264 -0.20 4.18 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 449 12 UTC = 438 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.88 3.90 3.87 48 -0.96 -0.97 4.37 4.33 72 -0.95 -1.01 4.99 4.99 96 -1.03 5.89 120 -1.04 6.75 144 -0.92 7.64 168 -0.84 8.68 192 -0.77 9.59 216 -0.74 10.35 240 -0.80 10.80 264 -0.72 11.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 409 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.58 4.18 4.21 48 -0.71 -0.67 5.15 5.16 72 -0.75 -0.74 6.39 6.59 96 -0.76 8.18 120 -0.75 9.67 144 -0.76 11.20 168 -0.76 12.89 192 -0.70 14.59 216 -0.64 15.92 240 -0.74 16.74 264 -0.70 17.23 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 443 12 UTC = 431 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.60 4.84 4.85 48 -0.67 -0.70 6.25 6.29 72 -0.74 -0.78 8.09 8.30 96 -0.80 10.68 120 -0.79 13.35 144 -0.90 16.02 168 -0.95 18.74 192 -0.87 21.38 216 -0.80 23.23 240 -0.90 24.91 264 -0.73 25.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 440 12 UTC = 429 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.55 -2.99 8.94 9.30 0.98 0.98 48 -4.02 -3.27 11.10 12.09 0.98 0.98 72 -4.18 -3.68 14.27 15.28 0.96 0.97 96 -5.23 21.77 0.95 120 -6.60 27.48 0.92 144 -7.61 33.58 0.87 168 -8.67 38.76 0.86 192 -8.12 43.64 0.82 216 -6.04 49.16 0.76 240 -5.24 53.53 0.73 264 -6.49 59.66 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.17 -6.27 12.32 12.89 0.97 0.98 48 -6.91 -5.58 14.85 16.74 0.98 0.98 72 -6.46 -5.61 19.59 21.44 0.97 0.97 96 -7.26 29.15 0.95 120 -9.52 37.13 0.93 144 -11.86 48.18 0.87 168 -13.73 57.68 0.83 192 -13.67 63.95 0.81 216 -11.37 70.93 0.78 240 -10.65 76.47 0.75 264 -14.20 84.58 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.02 -9.23 15.54 16.89 0.98 0.98 48 -8.35 -9.21 19.71 22.56 0.98 0.98 72 -7.89 -9.38 26.33 30.63 0.97 0.97 96 -10.68 40.07 0.96 120 -13.76 51.52 0.94 144 -16.16 65.93 0.89 168 -19.65 83.62 0.83 192 -19.53 92.06 0.81 216 -18.66 102.35 0.75 240 -20.49 110.69 0.73 264 -25.36 123.95 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.37 1.45 1.49 0.90 0.89 48 -0.46 -0.27 1.58 1.66 0.93 0.92 72 -0.42 -0.22 1.74 1.86 0.93 0.91 96 -0.26 2.06 0.89 120 -0.35 2.24 0.88 144 -0.42 2.68 0.83 168 -0.47 2.93 0.80 192 -0.53 3.42 0.76 216 -0.54 3.70 0.74 240 -0.49 4.05 0.69 264 -0.52 4.19 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 -0.03 0.95 0.89 0.89 0.93 48 0.14 -0.01 1.10 1.09 0.92 0.94 72 0.15 -0.01 1.32 1.37 0.90 0.92 96 0.05 1.63 0.90 120 0.04 1.99 0.87 144 -0.05 2.33 0.82 168 -0.08 2.73 0.76 192 -0.11 2.93 0.74 216 -0.06 3.15 0.69 240 -0.18 3.24 0.65 264 -0.33 3.54 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.11 1.05 1.06 0.89 0.90 48 -0.05 -0.17 1.22 1.27 0.91 0.91 72 -0.07 -0.17 1.53 1.50 0.88 0.90 96 -0.17 1.87 0.88 120 -0.18 2.08 0.84 144 -0.10 2.41 0.80 168 -0.04 2.63 0.77 192 -0.03 2.89 0.73 216 -0.24 3.06 0.70 240 -0.31 3.29 0.68 264 -0.34 3.39 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.96 4.17 4.32 48 -0.69 -0.95 4.47 4.73 72 -0.62 -0.84 4.94 5.22 96 -0.78 5.71 120 -0.79 6.50 144 -0.79 7.10 168 -0.84 7.54 192 -0.82 8.41 216 -1.09 8.95 240 -1.10 9.28 264 -0.90 9.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.89 4.44 4.45 48 -0.82 -1.08 5.15 5.31 72 -0.71 -1.01 6.08 6.21 96 -0.78 7.10 120 -0.75 8.35 144 -0.58 9.40 168 -0.29 10.41 192 -0.35 11.63 216 -0.31 12.72 240 -0.44 13.32 264 -0.11 13.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.91 -0.81 5.69 5.82 48 -0.97 -0.73 7.03 7.13 72 -0.80 -0.46 8.34 8.77 96 -0.40 10.20 120 -0.36 12.54 144 -0.08 14.22 168 0.22 16.50 192 0.08 18.41 216 0.27 19.92 240 0.62 21.20 264 1.26 21.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 ---------------------------------------------------------