VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY DECEMBER 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.11 1.06 1.09 0.99 0.99 16.1 16.6 48 0.25 0.25 1.90 1.94 0.98 0.98 25.2 25.9 72 0.41 0.39 2.82 2.88 0.96 0.96 33.7 34.2 96 0.55 3.93 0.92 42.2 120 0.66 5.24 0.86 50.8 144 0.77 6.39 0.80 57.6 168 0.81 7.77 0.70 64.6 192 0.81 9.01 0.59 69.9 216 0.76 10.23 0.47 74.7 240 0.70 11.06 0.39 78.0 264 0.66 11.74 0.31 80.4 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.32 7.59 7.77 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.4 48 -0.26 -0.39 15.68 15.98 0.99 0.99 17.3 17.5 72 -0.08 -0.33 25.59 25.92 0.97 0.97 25.0 25.1 96 0.17 37.52 0.94 32.7 120 0.57 51.09 0.88 40.2 144 1.04 65.25 0.80 47.2 168 1.21 80.48 0.71 53.5 192 1.28 94.07 0.61 58.7 216 1.39 106.34 0.51 62.9 240 0.96 116.12 0.43 65.4 264 0.68 124.27 0.35 67.7 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.71 9.58 9.69 1.00 1.00 7.4 7.5 48 -1.64 -1.65 19.80 20.19 0.99 0.99 13.0 13.1 72 -2.31 -2.45 32.64 32.80 0.97 0.97 19.1 19.1 96 -2.39 48.41 0.94 25.7 120 -1.67 66.61 0.89 32.5 144 -1.10 85.24 0.82 38.9 168 0.04 106.52 0.73 45.3 192 1.39 125.31 0.63 50.6 216 2.60 143.05 0.53 55.1 240 2.42 156.44 0.46 57.7 264 0.74 167.38 0.38 60.3 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.52 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.04 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 72 -0.06 -0.07 1.46 1.46 0.94 0.94 96 -0.08 2.00 0.89 120 -0.08 2.60 0.82 144 -0.07 3.14 0.74 168 -0.03 3.65 0.65 192 0.03 4.16 0.55 216 0.07 4.62 0.45 240 0.08 4.92 0.39 264 0.05 5.23 0.30 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.07 0.66 0.67 0.98 0.98 48 -0.18 -0.15 1.10 1.11 0.95 0.95 72 -0.25 -0.21 1.56 1.55 0.90 0.90 96 -0.26 2.05 0.83 120 -0.28 2.54 0.73 144 -0.29 2.96 0.63 168 -0.28 3.34 0.54 192 -0.24 3.67 0.45 216 -0.18 3.91 0.37 240 -0.16 4.10 0.30 264 -0.24 4.27 0.25 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.10 2.33 2.35 48 -0.21 -0.20 4.27 4.30 72 -0.30 -0.28 6.18 6.23 96 -0.30 8.23 120 -0.28 10.28 144 -0.29 12.18 168 -0.25 14.01 192 -0.17 15.53 216 -0.16 16.83 240 -0.19 17.67 264 -0.30 18.28 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.11 3.26 3.28 48 -0.28 -0.22 5.48 5.54 72 -0.36 -0.28 7.85 7.89 96 -0.33 10.74 120 -0.31 13.63 144 -0.29 16.63 168 -0.25 19.68 192 -0.19 22.07 216 -0.20 24.33 240 -0.24 25.65 264 -0.37 26.77 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.40 3.20 3.25 0.97 0.97 22.8 23.5 48 -1.16 -1.03 5.11 5.17 0.92 0.93 30.1 31.4 72 -1.93 -1.77 6.53 6.75 0.88 0.87 34.9 36.2 96 -2.61 8.13 0.82 40.5 120 -3.19 9.31 0.77 44.1 144 -3.96 10.48 0.73 47.3 168 -4.43 11.45 0.68 49.9 192 -4.83 12.54 0.63 52.6 216 -5.07 13.46 0.57 54.8 240 -5.54 14.27 0.53 56.6 264 -6.17 14.66 0.50 58.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.17 -1.19 3.98 4.05 0.99 0.99 19.9 20.2 48 -3.83 -3.70 7.20 7.16 0.97 0.97 27.9 28.3 72 -6.16 -5.82 10.47 10.23 0.95 0.95 34.0 34.7 96 -7.55 13.17 0.91 40.0 120 -8.92 15.84 0.87 44.9 144 -10.77 18.76 0.83 49.1 168 -12.26 21.56 0.78 52.9 192 -13.30 23.94 0.72 56.8 216 -14.03 26.43 0.65 60.4 240 -15.00 28.10 0.60 62.5 264 -16.01 29.76 0.55 64.8 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.10 0.40 0.43 0.97 0.97 48 -0.16 -0.15 0.63 0.65 0.92 0.93 72 -0.18 -0.17 0.78 0.80 0.88 0.89 96 -0.18 0.90 0.86 120 -0.20 1.00 0.82 144 -0.21 1.09 0.79 168 -0.23 1.20 0.74 192 -0.24 1.30 0.70 216 -0.26 1.38 0.66 240 -0.27 1.44 0.64 264 -0.27 1.49 0.61 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.28 0.41 0.43 0.95 0.95 48 -0.43 -0.44 0.63 0.66 0.88 0.87 72 -0.50 -0.52 0.78 0.81 0.81 0.80 96 -0.57 0.93 0.73 120 -0.60 1.02 0.66 144 -0.65 1.10 0.60 168 -0.68 1.18 0.55 192 -0.70 1.26 0.48 216 -0.71 1.34 0.41 240 -0.74 1.39 0.38 264 -0.75 1.44 0.34 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 1.37 1.36 48 -0.14 -0.13 2.03 2.01 72 -0.16 -0.17 2.50 2.45 96 -0.17 2.86 120 -0.18 3.27 144 -0.22 3.64 168 -0.24 3.97 192 -0.25 4.30 216 -0.24 4.57 240 -0.20 4.80 264 -0.24 4.95 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.28 2.96 2.93 48 -0.41 -0.39 4.49 4.49 72 -0.43 -0.43 5.70 5.77 96 -0.40 6.84 120 -0.37 7.77 144 -0.32 8.64 168 -0.30 9.49 192 -0.32 10.26 216 -0.34 10.97 240 -0.42 11.44 264 -0.46 11.88 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.11 0.78 0.78 1.00 1.00 13.4 13.7 48 -0.20 -0.20 1.46 1.44 0.98 0.98 22.5 22.9 72 -0.28 -0.27 2.27 2.25 0.96 0.96 30.9 31.6 96 -0.34 3.31 0.91 40.5 120 -0.37 4.37 0.84 48.3 144 -0.37 5.43 0.76 55.2 168 -0.33 6.41 0.66 61.6 192 -0.27 7.30 0.56 66.6 216 -0.19 8.25 0.46 70.8 240 -0.08 8.64 0.41 73.0 264 0.01 8.80 0.37 74.0 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.06 0.89 7.13 7.04 1.00 1.00 9.8 9.7 48 1.45 1.34 14.24 14.29 0.99 0.99 17.7 17.8 72 1.73 1.69 22.63 22.74 0.96 0.96 25.4 25.4 96 1.93 33.47 0.92 33.0 120 2.21 45.34 0.85 40.0 144 2.74 57.53 0.76 46.2 168 3.57 68.75 0.66 51.9 192 4.50 79.92 0.54 57.1 216 5.34 91.08 0.42 61.6 240 6.30 98.18 0.33 64.8 264 7.05 101.01 0.29 66.1 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.06 9.33 9.34 1.00 1.00 8.5 8.5 48 0.01 -0.08 18.80 19.03 0.99 0.99 15.0 15.0 72 0.07 0.05 29.68 29.94 0.97 0.97 21.5 21.5 96 0.36 44.12 0.93 28.6 120 0.89 60.40 0.87 35.4 144 1.56 76.92 0.80 41.4 168 2.65 93.42 0.70 47.2 192 3.61 110.67 0.59 52.8 216 4.53 126.60 0.47 57.5 240 5.26 137.28 0.37 60.9 264 5.85 142.24 0.33 62.3 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.06 0.47 0.46 0.99 0.99 48 0.09 0.09 0.87 0.88 0.96 0.96 72 0.11 0.11 1.27 1.27 0.92 0.92 96 0.14 1.71 0.86 120 0.16 2.13 0.78 144 0.19 2.52 0.69 168 0.22 2.90 0.60 192 0.23 3.30 0.48 216 0.24 3.66 0.37 240 0.24 3.89 0.28 264 0.23 4.02 0.23 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.17 0.61 0.61 0.99 0.99 48 -0.26 -0.26 1.08 1.09 0.95 0.95 72 -0.30 -0.30 1.55 1.55 0.90 0.91 96 -0.33 2.05 0.83 120 -0.34 2.50 0.75 144 -0.35 2.90 0.66 168 -0.36 3.27 0.57 192 -0.38 3.57 0.50 216 -0.40 3.83 0.43 240 -0.41 4.02 0.37 264 -0.44 4.16 0.31 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.11 2.08 2.06 48 -0.18 -0.19 3.75 3.76 72 -0.21 -0.22 5.37 5.38 96 -0.24 7.06 120 -0.27 8.61 144 -0.32 10.08 168 -0.33 11.51 192 -0.35 12.93 216 -0.34 14.23 240 -0.32 15.04 264 -0.34 15.33 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.13 3.12 3.13 48 -0.16 -0.17 5.42 5.37 72 -0.17 -0.19 7.63 7.63 96 -0.24 10.20 120 -0.25 12.68 144 -0.27 15.00 168 -0.30 17.35 192 -0.33 19.82 216 -0.38 22.00 240 -0.43 23.25 264 -0.44 23.81 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.65 -2.51 8.93 9.24 0.99 0.99 48 -2.49 -2.85 13.48 13.83 0.98 0.98 72 -2.41 -2.84 19.69 20.03 0.97 0.96 96 -4.51 28.41 0.93 120 -6.67 38.23 0.88 144 -4.81 46.67 0.80 168 -1.93 58.04 0.68 192 -2.37 66.14 0.66 216 -1.92 73.12 0.66 240 -3.07 76.29 0.61 264 -1.82 78.53 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.23 -5.18 11.51 11.71 0.99 0.99 48 -5.65 -6.05 18.70 18.68 0.98 0.98 72 -5.37 -6.03 29.36 29.55 0.97 0.97 96 -7.99 41.82 0.94 120 -12.73 58.43 0.89 144 -13.74 73.52 0.81 168 -11.33 91.28 0.73 192 -14.35 107.27 0.69 216 -12.40 117.00 0.64 240 -6.28 126.71 0.58 264 0.70 133.02 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.60 -8.34 15.56 15.56 0.99 0.99 48 -10.45 -10.97 25.40 25.88 0.99 0.99 72 -10.62 -11.75 38.65 39.89 0.97 0.97 96 -13.34 58.34 0.95 120 -18.51 84.35 0.89 144 -18.78 109.03 0.81 168 -14.85 131.88 0.76 192 -18.70 157.03 0.70 216 -13.80 177.47 0.64 240 -2.89 191.18 0.57 264 6.44 202.82 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.32 1.63 1.73 0.93 0.92 48 -0.14 -0.32 1.90 2.00 0.94 0.94 72 -0.16 -0.29 2.25 2.46 0.93 0.93 96 -0.38 2.92 0.90 120 -0.52 3.50 0.86 144 -0.68 4.25 0.80 168 -0.95 5.08 0.74 192 -1.36 5.87 0.67 216 -1.28 6.40 0.66 240 -0.95 6.98 0.61 264 -0.58 7.54 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.12 1.04 1.02 0.96 0.96 48 -0.13 -0.13 1.34 1.37 0.96 0.96 72 -0.12 -0.17 1.77 1.86 0.94 0.94 96 -0.14 2.46 0.91 120 -0.24 3.22 0.84 144 -0.38 3.97 0.76 168 -0.29 4.52 0.74 192 -0.34 5.33 0.69 216 -0.21 5.94 0.64 240 0.17 6.32 0.59 264 0.44 6.82 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.07 1.09 1.12 0.94 0.94 48 -0.12 -0.05 1.40 1.43 0.93 0.92 72 -0.14 -0.10 1.82 1.83 0.89 0.89 96 -0.13 2.29 0.85 120 -0.10 2.77 0.79 144 0.00 3.09 0.76 168 0.10 3.47 0.67 192 0.14 3.85 0.61 216 0.21 4.13 0.60 240 0.15 4.22 0.58 264 0.02 4.24 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -1.11 4.02 4.30 48 -0.94 -1.18 4.60 4.95 72 -0.81 -1.13 5.44 5.92 96 -0.99 6.98 120 -0.91 8.45 144 -0.95 9.95 168 -0.75 11.45 192 -0.58 12.41 216 -0.31 12.86 240 -0.56 13.46 264 -0.82 13.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.74 4.63 4.60 48 -0.93 -0.73 5.73 5.91 72 -0.92 -0.75 7.51 7.70 96 -0.55 9.65 120 -0.22 12.14 144 0.07 14.34 168 0.03 16.45 192 0.12 18.05 216 0.16 19.49 240 -0.17 20.54 264 -0.57 21.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -1.00 5.69 5.63 48 -1.01 -1.07 7.42 7.60 72 -1.03 -1.06 9.82 10.24 96 -0.73 13.44 120 -0.24 17.70 144 0.07 21.06 168 0.01 24.41 192 -0.08 26.99 216 0.00 30.06 240 -0.57 31.80 264 -1.12 33.04 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.75 -7.71 9.55 11.05 0.98 0.98 48 -6.79 -10.71 13.00 15.14 0.98 0.98 72 -9.81 -14.22 17.83 20.74 0.97 0.97 96 -15.68 25.49 0.95 120 -20.72 35.91 0.91 144 -25.15 46.54 0.85 168 -29.81 60.22 0.74 192 -32.30 72.27 0.61 216 -41.45 87.20 0.56 240 -46.20 97.47 0.53 264 -49.02 102.28 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 56 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.25 -12.13 13.97 15.48 0.98 0.99 48 -12.68 -16.62 19.98 22.49 0.98 0.98 72 -16.45 -21.42 28.59 30.92 0.97 0.97 96 -23.88 39.98 0.95 120 -30.29 56.99 0.90 144 -40.28 80.83 0.82 168 -44.43 100.93 0.73 192 -44.92 118.74 0.65 216 -49.31 133.27 0.59 240 -51.84 140.67 0.56 264 -55.19 148.03 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 55 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.65 -13.52 16.51 18.03 0.99 0.99 48 -14.32 -18.47 24.40 26.62 0.98 0.99 72 -18.85 -23.60 35.90 37.57 0.97 0.98 96 -27.26 50.35 0.96 120 -35.98 71.84 0.92 144 -48.91 104.76 0.84 168 -51.66 135.79 0.75 192 -50.37 162.67 0.65 216 -52.77 178.56 0.58 240 -48.84 185.11 0.57 264 -50.80 194.59 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 55 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.30 1.36 1.29 0.90 0.90 48 -0.55 -0.45 1.58 1.51 0.91 0.91 72 -0.69 -0.58 1.84 1.80 0.90 0.89 96 -0.73 2.15 0.86 120 -0.88 2.69 0.78 144 -1.25 3.57 0.70 168 -1.30 4.29 0.58 192 -1.12 4.45 0.58 216 -0.69 4.57 0.57 240 -0.61 4.42 0.61 264 -0.45 4.60 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.11 0.83 0.83 0.95 0.95 48 -0.10 -0.15 1.08 1.10 0.94 0.94 72 -0.08 -0.14 1.41 1.40 0.93 0.93 96 -0.21 1.78 0.90 120 -0.31 2.36 0.85 144 -0.64 3.18 0.76 168 -0.60 3.83 0.67 192 -0.49 4.47 0.58 216 -0.28 4.67 0.53 240 -0.12 4.75 0.52 264 -0.13 5.13 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.22 1.01 0.94 0.92 0.93 48 0.28 0.17 1.18 1.13 0.91 0.92 72 0.18 0.18 1.45 1.41 0.88 0.88 96 0.15 1.73 0.83 120 0.12 2.20 0.75 144 0.20 2.64 0.67 168 0.24 3.04 0.58 192 0.42 3.41 0.54 216 0.52 3.65 0.48 240 1.01 3.67 0.53 264 1.22 3.85 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.70 3.90 3.83 48 -0.92 -0.85 4.45 4.30 72 -0.94 -0.87 5.04 4.90 96 -0.95 5.61 120 -1.08 6.83 144 -1.33 8.16 168 -1.07 9.96 192 -0.96 11.14 216 -0.72 12.33 240 -0.71 12.59 264 -0.79 12.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 56 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.51 4.21 4.17 48 -0.65 -0.71 5.37 5.26 72 -0.65 -0.71 6.75 6.62 96 -0.69 8.36 120 -0.65 10.84 144 -0.37 13.99 168 -0.19 17.23 192 -0.56 19.14 216 -0.44 20.91 240 -0.38 21.20 264 -0.09 21.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.58 5.26 4.89 48 -0.65 -0.63 6.91 6.67 72 -0.61 -0.34 9.05 8.80 96 -0.43 10.91 120 -0.37 14.51 144 -0.27 19.73 168 -0.11 25.08 192 -0.25 28.20 216 -0.22 30.76 240 0.69 31.53 264 1.85 32.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.48 -0.21 11.69 10.73 0.97 0.97 48 2.62 1.50 14.65 13.92 0.97 0.96 72 3.82 2.91 18.20 17.54 0.95 0.95 96 4.12 21.61 0.93 120 3.53 26.95 0.90 144 3.97 31.71 0.86 168 4.50 36.80 0.80 192 2.94 42.23 0.72 216 -1.77 49.08 0.67 240 -2.07 51.80 0.65 264 0.42 57.03 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 123 12 UTC = 122 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -1.04 14.03 13.63 0.97 0.98 48 1.61 1.69 19.47 18.76 0.97 0.97 72 3.34 4.16 25.37 24.70 0.95 0.96 96 4.51 32.09 0.93 120 3.49 41.00 0.91 144 2.64 49.70 0.87 168 3.05 58.87 0.82 192 1.85 67.48 0.77 216 -3.57 76.93 0.75 240 -6.73 82.27 0.73 264 -7.99 90.83 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.01 -4.53 20.99 20.66 0.97 0.97 48 -2.27 -2.90 27.27 26.52 0.97 0.97 72 -0.61 0.38 34.34 34.12 0.96 0.95 96 0.77 43.13 0.93 120 -0.37 55.90 0.91 144 -1.69 66.42 0.89 168 1.53 76.51 0.84 192 2.88 87.62 0.79 216 -2.45 99.89 0.78 240 -6.72 110.79 0.75 264 -9.53 123.94 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.12 1.73 1.70 0.90 0.89 48 0.12 0.02 1.95 1.92 0.91 0.92 72 0.21 0.12 2.21 2.18 0.90 0.91 96 0.07 2.45 0.89 120 -0.01 2.93 0.87 144 -0.10 3.40 0.84 168 -0.12 3.82 0.81 192 -0.20 4.25 0.76 216 -0.32 4.76 0.73 240 -0.53 5.08 0.72 264 -0.77 5.68 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.25 1.12 1.15 0.95 0.94 48 -0.21 -0.24 1.39 1.40 0.95 0.95 72 -0.23 -0.21 1.68 1.70 0.94 0.93 96 -0.27 2.12 0.89 120 -0.32 2.57 0.87 144 -0.39 3.01 0.84 168 -0.36 3.36 0.79 192 -0.29 3.70 0.74 216 -0.34 4.11 0.72 240 -0.50 4.42 0.72 264 -0.65 4.87 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 159 12 UTC = 158 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.16 1.36 1.33 0.92 0.93 48 0.05 0.09 1.62 1.59 0.93 0.93 72 0.07 0.12 1.93 1.89 0.89 0.89 96 0.19 2.30 0.85 120 0.25 2.73 0.83 144 0.29 3.10 0.80 168 0.39 3.42 0.75 192 0.56 3.66 0.70 216 0.57 3.92 0.65 240 0.59 4.13 0.63 264 0.38 4.34 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 155 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.05 -1.04 3.89 3.88 48 -1.21 -1.19 4.35 4.31 72 -1.30 -1.21 4.86 4.79 96 -1.11 5.40 120 -1.11 6.19 144 -1.15 6.82 168 -1.10 7.27 192 -0.96 7.75 216 -1.21 8.10 240 -1.04 8.54 264 -1.25 9.08 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.56 4.63 4.60 48 -0.71 -0.66 5.67 5.66 72 -0.74 -0.71 6.76 6.77 96 -0.66 8.16 120 -0.57 9.71 144 -0.55 10.89 168 -0.70 11.87 192 -0.45 12.52 216 -0.38 13.43 240 -0.14 13.75 264 -0.34 14.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 156 12 UTC = 155 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.54 4.93 4.88 48 -0.76 -0.82 6.18 6.18 72 -0.78 -0.84 7.47 7.55 96 -0.81 9.28 120 -0.65 11.22 144 -0.66 12.93 168 -0.75 14.22 192 -0.55 15.59 216 -0.46 17.05 240 -0.18 18.54 264 -0.15 20.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 155 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.56 -4.89 7.63 8.02 0.97 0.98 48 -6.27 -5.95 10.11 11.18 0.97 0.98 72 -7.46 -6.00 13.67 15.37 0.95 0.92 96 -8.24 20.23 0.95 120 -9.33 23.49 0.90 144 -8.45 32.54 0.88 168 -5.32 38.15 0.78 192 -0.99 40.50 0.73 216 3.86 47.32 0.59 240 6.83 50.13 0.54 264 7.76 55.58 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.06 -7.85 11.24 11.74 0.97 0.97 48 -9.19 -7.26 13.80 14.87 0.97 0.98 72 -10.10 -7.13 17.63 19.22 0.94 0.93 96 -10.45 25.81 0.91 120 -12.04 32.65 0.89 144 -11.84 44.23 0.86 168 -8.67 51.37 0.69 192 -2.49 55.82 0.63 216 1.49 68.42 0.54 240 5.12 75.08 0.54 264 6.26 74.70 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.36 -6.08 13.66 12.81 0.96 0.98 48 -8.27 -5.06 18.06 18.06 0.97 0.97 72 -8.78 -4.96 23.08 25.47 0.96 0.95 96 -7.33 34.79 0.89 120 -12.18 45.85 0.87 144 -13.30 61.03 0.84 168 -14.48 70.17 0.71 192 -11.97 81.48 0.61 216 -10.65 100.91 0.57 240 -9.12 108.20 0.56 264 -11.46 104.00 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.56 1.33 1.36 0.85 0.88 48 -0.31 -0.47 1.47 1.50 0.89 0.93 72 -0.29 -0.39 1.65 1.65 0.86 0.90 96 -0.42 1.97 0.82 120 -0.34 2.23 0.79 144 -0.34 2.79 0.74 168 -0.24 3.21 0.60 192 -0.04 3.30 0.64 216 0.03 3.51 0.67 240 0.39 4.31 0.48 264 0.30 3.96 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.14 0.90 0.84 0.82 0.88 48 0.24 0.22 0.98 1.02 0.86 0.90 72 0.24 0.23 1.16 1.23 0.85 0.85 96 0.23 1.47 0.81 120 0.08 1.68 0.76 144 0.01 2.10 0.73 168 -0.10 2.12 0.58 192 -0.08 2.29 0.61 216 -0.20 2.66 0.57 240 -0.24 2.93 0.54 264 -0.31 2.64 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.13 0.87 0.92 0.89 0.93 48 -0.05 -0.21 1.02 1.17 0.90 0.89 72 0.00 -0.19 1.25 1.41 0.88 0.87 96 -0.18 1.66 0.91 120 -0.29 1.93 0.89 144 -0.26 2.36 0.81 168 -0.48 2.77 0.76 192 -0.82 2.96 0.68 216 -0.84 3.21 0.69 240 -1.03 3.63 0.58 264 -1.26 3.55 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.88 3.82 3.73 48 -0.52 -0.87 4.17 4.38 72 -0.49 -0.85 4.68 5.22 96 -0.74 5.95 120 -0.75 6.89 144 -1.04 7.23 168 -1.29 8.60 192 -1.06 9.63 216 -1.40 10.28 240 -1.68 10.05 264 -1.71 10.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.56 4.11 4.13 48 -0.88 -0.52 4.97 4.91 72 -0.87 -0.43 5.66 6.22 96 -0.66 7.47 120 -0.41 8.17 144 -0.53 9.04 168 -0.89 10.02 192 -0.46 11.39 216 -1.04 13.23 240 -1.22 13.61 264 -0.99 14.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -1.11 5.26 5.47 48 -0.57 -1.02 6.71 6.27 72 -0.56 -0.83 7.58 7.47 96 -0.88 9.79 120 -1.02 11.21 144 -1.22 13.48 168 -2.32 14.69 192 -2.73 16.31 216 -2.07 19.65 240 -2.47 20.59 264 -3.09 22.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.39 -3.44 8.89 9.73 0.68 0.71 48 -4.12 -4.05 9.48 10.26 0.76 0.80 72 -5.24 -5.31 10.46 11.25 0.80 0.82 96 -6.46 12.18 0.80 120 -7.79 13.35 0.80 144 -8.60 14.50 0.78 168 -9.02 15.45 0.76 192 -8.97 16.50 0.73 216 -9.42 17.32 0.70 240 -9.98 18.15 0.68 264 -10.57 18.87 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.85 -5.55 11.69 11.84 0.56 0.62 48 -6.60 -6.20 12.35 12.59 0.72 0.73 72 -8.02 -7.70 13.56 13.80 0.76 0.77 96 -9.18 14.96 0.77 120 -10.65 16.20 0.75 144 -11.69 17.28 0.75 168 -12.46 18.27 0.75 192 -12.84 19.28 0.73 216 -13.37 20.37 0.68 240 -13.92 21.38 0.63 264 -14.65 22.28 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.44 -7.45 15.11 14.52 0.63 0.64 48 -9.59 -9.20 16.83 15.93 0.76 0.78 72 -11.77 -11.27 18.94 17.82 0.79 0.81 96 -13.12 19.74 0.83 120 -14.90 21.70 0.80 144 -16.35 23.66 0.80 168 -17.52 25.17 0.80 192 -17.91 26.39 0.77 216 -18.65 28.08 0.74 240 -19.30 28.90 0.72 264 -20.41 30.87 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.33 1.07 1.04 0.47 0.43 48 -0.39 -0.36 1.11 1.08 0.57 0.53 72 -0.41 -0.38 1.15 1.09 0.59 0.59 96 -0.41 1.12 0.61 120 -0.45 1.19 0.60 144 -0.50 1.29 0.56 168 -0.54 1.33 0.53 192 -0.59 1.41 0.53 216 -0.59 1.47 0.51 240 -0.58 1.50 0.50 264 -0.60 1.55 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.13 0.76 0.76 0.55 0.54 48 0.15 0.13 0.80 0.79 0.62 0.64 72 0.14 0.14 0.83 0.84 0.66 0.67 96 0.13 0.88 0.70 120 0.13 0.92 0.69 144 0.12 0.97 0.68 168 0.09 0.98 0.66 192 0.07 1.03 0.62 216 0.08 1.10 0.57 240 0.10 1.13 0.56 264 0.09 1.16 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.38 0.69 0.68 0.60 0.63 48 -0.48 -0.49 0.81 0.80 0.67 0.69 72 -0.52 -0.53 0.88 0.87 0.68 0.71 96 -0.55 0.93 0.69 120 -0.58 1.00 0.70 144 -0.60 1.05 0.70 168 -0.61 1.10 0.68 192 -0.62 1.17 0.63 216 -0.63 1.22 0.58 240 -0.65 1.24 0.57 264 -0.67 1.28 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.67 3.54 3.59 48 -0.43 -0.63 3.81 3.88 72 -0.44 -0.62 4.05 4.07 96 -0.69 4.31 120 -0.71 4.64 144 -0.74 4.96 168 -0.71 5.20 192 -0.67 5.58 216 -0.67 5.82 240 -0.75 5.95 264 -0.83 6.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.74 3.76 3.76 48 -0.87 -0.85 4.12 4.12 72 -0.86 -0.84 4.41 4.42 96 -0.84 4.72 120 -0.79 5.16 144 -0.71 5.62 168 -0.61 5.97 192 -0.58 6.32 216 -0.62 6.60 240 -0.74 6.89 264 -0.76 7.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.05 -1.02 4.71 4.80 48 -1.09 -1.11 5.50 5.56 72 -1.06 -1.15 6.10 6.22 96 -1.19 6.77 120 -1.20 7.50 144 -1.22 8.22 168 -1.34 8.77 192 -1.39 9.25 216 -1.52 9.54 240 -1.61 9.85 264 -1.72 10.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.16 -2.00 10.75 10.74 0.98 0.98 48 -0.76 -1.68 14.68 14.91 0.98 0.98 72 -0.29 -1.27 19.84 20.43 0.97 0.97 96 -0.62 27.08 0.95 120 -1.05 35.95 0.91 144 -0.44 44.41 0.86 168 0.36 54.05 0.80 192 0.20 63.78 0.74 216 -1.88 72.78 0.69 240 -3.67 80.00 0.64 264 -3.24 84.79 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 389 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.34 -3.71 13.58 13.59 0.99 0.99 48 -3.37 -3.79 19.80 19.96 0.98 0.98 72 -3.00 -3.35 28.21 28.68 0.97 0.97 96 -3.11 38.99 0.95 120 -4.31 52.75 0.91 144 -5.30 67.60 0.86 168 -4.84 82.38 0.80 192 -5.23 96.55 0.75 216 -5.64 108.18 0.73 240 -5.60 116.72 0.70 264 -5.05 125.88 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 414 12 UTC = 402 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.41 -6.17 19.44 19.17 0.98 0.98 48 -6.29 -7.37 26.99 26.87 0.98 0.98 72 -6.49 -7.10 37.32 37.87 0.97 0.97 96 -7.10 51.99 0.95 120 -8.69 70.72 0.92 144 -10.22 91.64 0.87 168 -8.48 111.91 0.82 192 -7.62 131.62 0.77 216 -6.49 148.33 0.74 240 -4.06 159.66 0.71 264 -2.98 173.36 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 414 12 UTC = 401 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.20 1.59 1.58 0.92 0.92 48 -0.16 -0.19 1.82 1.82 0.93 0.94 72 -0.17 -0.19 2.13 2.15 0.92 0.93 96 -0.25 2.54 0.90 120 -0.32 3.05 0.87 144 -0.41 3.68 0.83 168 -0.51 4.26 0.79 192 -0.63 4.79 0.75 216 -0.57 5.27 0.72 240 -0.50 5.55 0.71 264 -0.48 6.02 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 422 12 UTC = 407 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.14 1.03 1.04 0.96 0.96 48 -0.14 -0.16 1.33 1.33 0.96 0.96 72 -0.15 -0.16 1.69 1.72 0.95 0.94 96 -0.18 2.22 0.91 120 -0.22 2.80 0.87 144 -0.31 3.44 0.82 168 -0.31 3.91 0.79 192 -0.27 4.45 0.74 216 -0.16 4.88 0.71 240 -0.07 5.14 0.68 264 -0.07 5.61 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 454 12 UTC = 439 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.14 1.22 1.20 0.93 0.94 48 0.06 0.06 1.49 1.48 0.93 0.93 72 0.03 0.03 1.85 1.82 0.91 0.91 96 0.01 2.26 0.87 120 0.01 2.72 0.83 144 0.05 3.12 0.79 168 0.13 3.48 0.73 192 0.20 3.82 0.68 216 0.22 4.03 0.65 240 0.27 4.21 0.64 264 0.20 4.41 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 448 12 UTC = 434 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.90 3.92 3.95 48 -0.99 -1.01 4.47 4.51 72 -0.99 -1.01 5.17 5.22 96 -0.94 6.07 120 -0.96 7.23 144 -1.01 8.25 168 -0.88 9.38 192 -0.78 10.25 216 -0.81 10.83 240 -0.76 11.26 264 -0.85 11.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 410 12 UTC = 396 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.63 4.48 4.48 48 -0.76 -0.72 5.64 5.68 72 -0.80 -0.77 7.06 7.16 96 -0.71 8.84 120 -0.65 10.82 144 -0.59 12.73 168 -0.61 14.53 192 -0.45 15.86 216 -0.41 17.13 240 -0.42 17.64 264 -0.53 18.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 441 12 UTC = 425 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.61 5.00 4.90 48 -0.70 -0.77 6.49 6.51 72 -0.72 -0.76 8.35 8.46 96 -0.71 10.86 120 -0.55 13.78 144 -0.51 16.86 168 -0.50 19.73 192 -0.39 21.95 216 -0.34 24.15 240 -0.22 25.37 264 -0.24 26.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 440 12 UTC = 424 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.47 -5.54 9.09 9.74 0.97 0.97 48 -5.95 -6.98 11.63 12.66 0.97 0.97 72 -6.93 -7.96 15.26 16.09 0.95 0.95 96 -9.64 21.16 0.93 120 -11.59 26.68 0.89 144 -11.93 32.98 0.83 168 -9.87 37.50 0.77 192 -7.80 38.31 0.75 216 -8.98 48.07 0.64 240 -7.28 50.03 0.59 264 -4.60 50.70 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.83 -7.90 12.41 13.24 0.97 0.97 48 -8.35 -8.02 15.57 16.66 0.97 0.97 72 -8.74 -8.93 20.09 21.72 0.95 0.95 96 -11.00 29.23 0.92 120 -13.66 36.44 0.88 144 -14.44 47.32 0.81 168 -13.63 53.36 0.76 192 -10.85 57.18 0.71 216 -11.37 67.70 0.64 240 -9.23 74.42 0.58 264 -4.20 74.73 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.21 -8.38 15.32 15.95 0.97 0.97 48 -8.33 -8.66 19.75 21.33 0.97 0.98 72 -8.08 -9.92 25.42 28.76 0.96 0.96 96 -12.34 38.80 0.93 120 -16.18 50.47 0.90 144 -17.73 66.47 0.82 168 -18.98 73.82 0.78 192 -15.92 81.82 0.72 216 -16.46 97.96 0.65 240 -12.75 106.07 0.63 264 -6.90 109.43 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.38 1.45 1.42 0.89 0.90 48 -0.39 -0.32 1.57 1.54 0.92 0.92 72 -0.38 -0.31 1.75 1.67 0.89 0.90 96 -0.39 1.90 0.88 120 -0.46 2.15 0.86 144 -0.54 2.60 0.82 168 -0.58 3.03 0.77 192 -0.41 3.23 0.71 216 -0.44 3.49 0.64 240 -0.43 3.86 0.62 264 -0.34 3.90 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.14 0.93 0.92 0.87 0.90 48 0.22 0.19 1.05 1.09 0.91 0.91 72 0.25 0.19 1.29 1.31 0.89 0.88 96 0.18 1.59 0.87 120 0.11 1.90 0.83 144 0.07 2.33 0.74 168 0.01 2.44 0.71 192 0.06 2.65 0.65 216 0.03 2.95 0.62 240 0.10 3.22 0.59 264 0.22 3.31 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.12 0.96 1.04 0.90 0.90 48 -0.10 -0.17 1.15 1.28 0.92 0.91 72 -0.04 -0.11 1.37 1.52 0.90 0.89 96 -0.12 1.88 0.86 120 -0.08 2.15 0.81 144 -0.14 2.59 0.75 168 -0.21 2.80 0.72 192 -0.28 3.12 0.64 216 -0.25 3.28 0.65 240 -0.40 3.66 0.59 264 -0.52 3.75 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -1.14 4.27 4.26 48 -0.79 -1.13 4.64 4.62 72 -0.75 -1.13 5.13 5.16 96 -1.01 5.82 120 -0.93 6.62 144 -0.93 7.28 168 -1.01 7.96 192 -1.06 8.42 216 -0.99 9.32 240 -1.06 9.40 264 -1.31 9.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.71 4.30 4.23 48 -0.93 -0.81 5.11 5.01 72 -0.93 -0.84 5.93 5.92 96 -0.88 6.88 120 -0.74 8.06 144 -0.67 9.24 168 -0.66 10.25 192 -0.65 11.08 216 -0.83 12.33 240 -0.63 13.05 264 -0.88 13.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.69 5.55 5.27 48 -0.70 -0.73 6.98 6.52 72 -0.62 -0.59 7.93 7.80 96 -0.31 9.56 120 0.03 11.58 144 0.31 13.65 168 0.15 14.98 192 -0.02 16.49 216 -0.13 18.76 240 -0.09 19.48 264 -0.17 20.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 ---------------------------------------------------------