VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JANUARY 2017 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.09 1.05 1.08 0.99 0.99 16.0 16.4 48 0.22 0.22 1.87 1.87 0.98 0.98 25.2 25.3 72 0.34 0.32 2.83 2.80 0.96 0.96 33.9 33.7 96 0.43 3.96 0.93 42.4 120 0.54 5.41 0.86 51.0 144 0.59 6.85 0.78 58.8 168 0.59 8.00 0.71 64.4 192 0.60 9.12 0.62 70.0 216 0.60 9.98 0.55 74.1 240 0.69 10.85 0.46 77.0 264 0.71 11.40 0.39 79.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.51 7.77 8.06 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.5 48 -0.64 -0.71 16.04 16.21 0.99 0.99 17.3 17.3 72 -0.64 -0.83 26.65 26.21 0.97 0.97 25.5 25.2 96 -0.68 38.64 0.94 33.2 120 -0.49 53.85 0.88 41.1 144 -0.40 69.28 0.81 48.2 168 -0.16 82.99 0.73 53.5 192 0.03 94.96 0.65 57.8 216 0.02 104.93 0.58 61.8 240 0.22 114.90 0.49 64.8 264 -0.20 123.45 0.41 67.5 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.55 9.75 10.05 1.00 1.00 7.5 7.5 48 -1.73 -1.54 19.63 19.94 0.99 0.99 13.0 13.0 72 -2.83 -2.76 32.30 32.39 0.98 0.98 19.2 19.1 96 -3.73 47.63 0.95 25.6 120 -4.25 66.61 0.90 32.6 144 -4.47 86.24 0.83 39.0 168 -4.28 105.44 0.76 44.2 192 -4.23 123.22 0.67 48.8 216 -4.09 138.11 0.59 52.8 240 -4.25 149.56 0.52 55.4 264 -4.52 161.26 0.45 58.4 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.03 -0.02 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.97 72 -0.07 -0.06 1.45 1.44 0.94 0.95 96 -0.08 1.96 0.90 120 -0.10 2.57 0.82 144 -0.11 3.10 0.75 168 -0.09 3.58 0.67 192 -0.07 4.06 0.58 216 -0.05 4.45 0.49 240 -0.07 4.68 0.44 264 -0.09 4.97 0.37 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.07 0.68 0.67 0.99 0.99 48 -0.18 -0.16 1.13 1.13 0.96 0.96 72 -0.23 -0.20 1.63 1.63 0.91 0.91 96 -0.25 2.14 0.85 120 -0.29 2.64 0.77 144 -0.32 3.07 0.68 168 -0.32 3.44 0.60 192 -0.37 3.74 0.53 216 -0.37 3.92 0.48 240 -0.38 4.11 0.43 264 -0.36 4.35 0.36 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.05 2.37 2.39 48 -0.14 -0.15 4.33 4.33 72 -0.21 -0.22 6.32 6.26 96 -0.30 8.36 120 -0.37 10.51 144 -0.39 12.51 168 -0.42 14.06 192 -0.47 15.37 216 -0.50 16.54 240 -0.55 17.42 264 -0.54 18.29 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.13 3.29 3.30 48 -0.31 -0.26 5.43 5.45 72 -0.35 -0.30 7.84 7.80 96 -0.35 10.40 120 -0.48 13.35 144 -0.51 16.31 168 -0.57 18.78 192 -0.63 20.97 216 -0.59 22.92 240 -0.80 24.02 264 -0.89 25.48 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.33 3.15 3.06 0.97 0.98 24.7 25.2 48 -1.08 -0.80 4.78 4.82 0.94 0.95 32.2 33.1 72 -1.48 -1.17 5.86 6.05 0.91 0.91 37.4 38.3 96 -1.58 7.00 0.88 42.0 120 -2.00 7.99 0.85 45.5 144 -2.23 8.94 0.82 48.9 168 -2.61 9.79 0.78 51.9 192 -3.19 10.91 0.73 54.3 216 -3.97 12.02 0.67 56.4 240 -4.77 13.07 0.62 58.3 264 -5.45 14.08 0.58 60.6 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.67 4.04 4.11 0.99 0.99 19.5 19.6 48 -2.68 -2.61 6.78 6.75 0.97 0.97 26.9 27.0 72 -4.10 -3.92 9.37 9.15 0.94 0.94 32.3 32.6 96 -4.87 11.39 0.91 37.2 120 -5.59 13.69 0.87 41.5 144 -6.14 16.13 0.82 45.8 168 -6.70 18.56 0.77 49.6 192 -7.95 21.43 0.70 53.3 216 -9.11 23.54 0.65 56.1 240 -10.10 24.84 0.61 57.8 264 -10.97 26.50 0.57 59.8 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 0.39 0.41 0.97 0.97 48 -0.12 -0.11 0.62 0.63 0.92 0.93 72 -0.13 -0.12 0.79 0.79 0.87 0.88 96 -0.12 0.91 0.84 120 -0.11 1.00 0.81 144 -0.12 1.10 0.77 168 -0.13 1.20 0.73 192 -0.16 1.31 0.68 216 -0.18 1.39 0.64 240 -0.19 1.46 0.60 264 -0.18 1.54 0.55 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.26 0.40 0.42 0.94 0.94 48 -0.36 -0.39 0.60 0.63 0.87 0.87 72 -0.41 -0.44 0.72 0.75 0.80 0.81 96 -0.45 0.84 0.74 120 -0.45 0.93 0.67 144 -0.46 1.01 0.60 168 -0.46 1.08 0.54 192 -0.47 1.16 0.47 216 -0.49 1.21 0.42 240 -0.48 1.25 0.39 264 -0.47 1.31 0.34 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 1.36 1.37 48 -0.01 -0.01 2.04 2.02 72 0.03 0.02 2.54 2.51 96 0.07 2.89 120 0.09 3.24 144 0.13 3.61 168 0.17 3.93 192 0.19 4.22 216 0.18 4.42 240 0.19 4.63 264 0.20 4.89 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.23 2.96 2.94 48 -0.32 -0.30 4.34 4.33 72 -0.30 -0.30 5.42 5.47 96 -0.30 6.43 120 -0.31 7.43 144 -0.36 8.43 168 -0.38 9.29 192 -0.35 10.04 216 -0.29 10.76 240 -0.28 11.24 264 -0.25 11.69 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.09 0.79 0.78 1.00 1.00 13.2 13.6 48 -0.15 -0.19 1.49 1.47 0.98 0.98 22.5 22.8 72 -0.24 -0.26 2.25 2.19 0.97 0.96 30.3 30.7 96 -0.32 3.03 0.92 38.2 120 -0.37 4.06 0.86 46.0 144 -0.40 5.22 0.77 53.3 168 -0.39 6.24 0.67 60.2 192 -0.34 7.04 0.59 65.1 216 -0.26 7.63 0.51 68.6 240 -0.23 8.18 0.43 71.3 264 -0.19 8.66 0.36 72.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.37 1.15 7.10 7.01 1.00 1.00 9.9 9.8 48 2.01 1.76 14.09 13.93 0.99 0.99 17.8 17.6 72 2.41 2.23 21.95 21.64 0.97 0.97 24.7 24.6 96 2.51 30.55 0.94 31.5 120 2.69 41.63 0.88 38.9 144 2.94 53.77 0.80 45.8 168 3.12 65.59 0.70 52.2 192 3.44 77.00 0.59 57.7 216 4.17 85.47 0.50 61.4 240 4.63 91.18 0.43 64.1 264 4.98 96.82 0.35 65.6 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.19 9.25 9.18 1.00 1.00 8.7 8.6 48 0.08 0.07 18.83 18.35 0.99 0.99 15.3 15.0 72 -0.13 -0.21 29.84 29.55 0.97 0.97 21.7 21.6 96 -0.20 41.90 0.94 28.2 120 0.14 57.85 0.89 35.6 144 0.81 74.74 0.82 42.3 168 1.16 91.67 0.73 48.5 192 1.29 108.05 0.62 53.9 216 1.54 121.58 0.52 58.0 240 1.84 129.67 0.45 60.7 264 1.63 138.42 0.38 62.7 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.07 0.45 0.46 0.99 0.99 48 0.11 0.12 0.85 0.85 0.97 0.97 72 0.14 0.15 1.24 1.24 0.93 0.93 96 0.18 1.62 0.88 120 0.19 2.06 0.80 144 0.21 2.48 0.71 168 0.21 2.89 0.62 192 0.20 3.25 0.51 216 0.20 3.55 0.42 240 0.19 3.76 0.35 264 0.18 3.91 0.29 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.19 0.62 0.61 0.98 0.99 48 -0.33 -0.32 1.11 1.10 0.95 0.95 72 -0.41 -0.40 1.56 1.56 0.90 0.90 96 -0.45 2.01 0.83 120 -0.45 2.47 0.74 144 -0.43 2.86 0.65 168 -0.43 3.27 0.54 192 -0.47 3.63 0.45 216 -0.49 3.85 0.38 240 -0.48 4.03 0.32 264 -0.48 4.14 0.28 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.11 2.01 2.01 48 -0.18 -0.17 3.62 3.59 72 -0.21 -0.21 5.08 5.03 96 -0.24 6.46 120 -0.27 8.12 144 -0.26 9.73 168 -0.25 11.25 192 -0.28 12.61 216 -0.32 13.57 240 -0.36 14.28 264 -0.36 14.67 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.12 3.01 3.02 48 -0.22 -0.19 5.29 5.22 72 -0.24 -0.23 7.57 7.55 96 -0.24 9.70 120 -0.22 12.49 144 -0.19 15.19 168 -0.25 17.47 192 -0.36 19.65 216 -0.47 21.42 240 -0.45 22.61 264 -0.48 23.52 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.59 -2.66 9.28 8.82 0.98 0.98 48 -2.71 -2.80 14.51 14.03 0.98 0.98 72 -0.56 -2.40 20.28 20.13 0.97 0.97 96 -0.19 26.17 0.96 120 1.93 33.86 0.93 144 3.80 43.40 0.90 168 2.17 54.19 0.85 192 -1.45 64.74 0.79 216 -1.21 70.68 0.73 240 5.90 73.48 0.70 264 8.66 78.61 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.29 -5.03 12.16 12.02 0.99 0.99 48 -4.49 -5.34 19.93 20.12 0.99 0.99 72 -1.05 -4.09 30.34 30.97 0.97 0.97 96 -1.00 42.10 0.96 120 2.08 55.29 0.94 144 3.69 71.01 0.91 168 2.76 87.55 0.85 192 -1.53 101.38 0.78 216 -3.22 112.69 0.69 240 2.41 121.12 0.66 264 2.07 125.86 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.73 -7.73 16.47 16.46 0.99 0.99 48 -9.63 -9.18 26.76 26.79 0.99 0.99 72 -5.83 -7.53 38.59 40.72 0.98 0.98 96 -3.54 55.48 0.96 120 -0.40 73.44 0.94 144 1.95 95.42 0.92 168 2.35 121.09 0.85 192 -2.14 143.04 0.77 216 -5.32 162.32 0.69 240 -3.39 173.59 0.68 264 -4.36 174.96 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.37 1.69 1.80 0.92 0.92 48 -0.14 -0.31 1.96 2.12 0.94 0.94 72 -0.01 -0.19 2.36 2.55 0.93 0.93 96 -0.11 3.04 0.92 120 -0.17 3.63 0.90 144 -0.25 4.23 0.88 168 -0.22 4.93 0.83 192 -0.37 5.75 0.72 216 -0.54 5.97 0.68 240 -0.48 6.28 0.68 264 -0.75 6.64 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.04 1.03 1.03 0.96 0.96 48 -0.09 -0.07 1.41 1.42 0.96 0.96 72 -0.01 -0.03 1.86 1.84 0.95 0.95 96 0.04 2.31 0.93 120 0.09 2.95 0.91 144 0.05 3.56 0.86 168 0.13 4.20 0.80 192 0.09 4.90 0.72 216 0.05 5.35 0.66 240 -0.19 5.53 0.67 264 -0.31 5.54 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.07 1.14 1.14 0.94 0.94 48 -0.14 -0.10 1.49 1.49 0.93 0.93 72 -0.19 -0.14 1.98 1.93 0.90 0.90 96 -0.13 2.36 0.86 120 -0.10 2.80 0.81 144 0.01 3.20 0.75 168 0.13 3.61 0.71 192 0.14 4.00 0.69 216 0.05 4.20 0.68 240 -0.11 4.39 0.64 264 -0.02 4.41 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.98 4.12 4.22 48 -1.08 -1.14 4.87 4.97 72 -1.12 -1.14 5.71 5.94 96 -1.06 6.80 120 -1.13 7.91 144 -1.07 9.14 168 -1.00 10.39 192 -0.70 11.54 216 -0.69 12.21 240 -0.94 12.27 264 -1.26 12.20 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.84 4.82 4.82 48 -1.07 -1.11 6.28 6.29 72 -1.18 -1.18 8.02 8.06 96 -1.16 9.86 120 -1.37 11.96 144 -1.47 14.26 168 -1.14 16.17 192 -1.06 18.10 216 -1.27 19.08 240 -1.60 19.29 264 -1.63 19.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -1.08 6.39 6.05 48 -1.43 -1.33 8.37 8.02 72 -1.41 -1.30 10.67 10.43 96 -1.22 12.88 120 -1.47 16.10 144 -1.49 19.99 168 -1.32 23.28 192 -1.60 26.00 216 -1.95 27.72 240 -2.28 28.39 264 -2.46 28.24 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.93 -6.42 10.51 11.28 0.98 0.98 48 -5.74 -8.90 14.29 15.78 0.98 0.98 72 -6.58 -9.23 19.00 19.53 0.97 0.97 96 -7.09 26.99 0.96 120 -6.45 41.98 0.89 144 -10.16 56.23 0.81 168 -10.04 63.88 0.77 192 -8.80 68.08 0.72 216 -6.58 75.12 0.72 240 -4.21 82.45 0.67 264 -16.73 92.53 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.28 -11.31 14.25 15.99 0.99 0.99 48 -12.14 -14.69 20.93 22.89 0.99 0.99 72 -13.54 -16.01 29.88 30.91 0.98 0.98 96 -10.83 41.73 0.96 120 -5.47 63.93 0.89 144 -8.36 88.50 0.81 168 -8.01 105.11 0.74 192 -4.65 115.08 0.70 216 -2.89 123.68 0.71 240 2.76 132.55 0.69 264 -4.81 148.01 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.83 -12.37 16.77 18.37 0.99 0.99 48 -13.25 -16.10 25.25 27.33 0.99 0.99 72 -15.67 -18.65 37.80 38.15 0.98 0.98 96 -14.18 52.69 0.96 120 -7.36 81.51 0.91 144 -7.79 116.31 0.82 168 -2.61 137.30 0.76 192 5.05 155.43 0.71 216 6.16 168.02 0.71 240 15.95 174.26 0.69 264 12.73 197.22 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.34 1.45 1.39 0.90 0.89 48 -0.63 -0.42 1.68 1.61 0.93 0.92 72 -0.64 -0.46 2.00 1.89 0.92 0.92 96 -0.30 2.17 0.91 120 -0.05 2.71 0.87 144 0.08 3.56 0.79 168 0.10 4.11 0.71 192 0.16 4.77 0.64 216 0.18 4.89 0.60 240 0.21 4.85 0.62 264 0.78 5.34 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.12 0.93 0.91 0.95 0.95 48 -0.18 -0.15 1.26 1.23 0.95 0.95 72 -0.25 -0.21 1.74 1.65 0.94 0.94 96 -0.06 2.21 0.91 120 0.23 2.95 0.86 144 0.34 3.80 0.77 168 0.57 4.51 0.68 192 0.72 5.01 0.65 216 0.65 5.19 0.65 240 0.87 5.12 0.65 264 1.16 5.75 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.32 0.28 1.15 1.11 0.93 0.93 48 0.32 0.28 1.39 1.36 0.92 0.92 72 0.26 0.20 1.80 1.72 0.89 0.89 96 -0.04 2.20 0.85 120 -0.22 2.80 0.78 144 -0.24 3.37 0.72 168 -0.26 3.79 0.64 192 0.06 4.02 0.63 216 0.21 4.15 0.60 240 0.09 4.16 0.62 264 -0.07 4.17 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.82 4.21 4.25 48 -0.76 -0.87 4.81 4.79 72 -0.86 -0.97 5.49 5.49 96 -1.07 6.57 120 -0.99 8.13 144 -0.93 9.60 168 -0.53 10.63 192 0.34 11.58 216 0.34 11.73 240 0.23 12.13 264 0.98 13.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.59 4.60 4.65 48 -0.71 -0.72 5.80 5.93 72 -0.90 -0.72 7.69 7.56 96 -1.03 9.77 120 -0.90 12.94 144 -0.62 16.51 168 -0.01 18.40 192 0.86 19.73 216 1.16 20.37 240 1.46 20.59 264 2.16 22.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.70 5.05 4.92 48 -0.55 -0.70 6.53 6.68 72 -0.59 -0.68 9.00 8.76 96 -0.65 11.75 120 -0.93 16.48 144 -0.27 22.15 168 0.42 25.23 192 2.34 27.52 216 2.77 28.91 240 3.66 29.08 264 3.08 31.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.42 -1.20 10.91 10.47 0.97 0.97 48 1.11 -0.36 13.51 12.78 0.97 0.97 72 2.37 0.95 17.45 16.55 0.96 0.96 96 1.03 21.33 0.95 120 1.49 27.26 0.92 144 0.48 33.08 0.89 168 -1.10 37.21 0.86 192 -2.29 42.52 0.83 216 -3.15 48.87 0.78 240 -6.63 53.72 0.70 264 -9.03 58.41 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 122 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.18 -1.94 13.19 13.27 0.98 0.98 48 0.70 -0.07 16.87 16.99 0.98 0.98 72 3.25 3.22 23.32 23.58 0.97 0.97 96 4.86 32.64 0.95 120 5.84 42.93 0.93 144 5.41 51.81 0.90 168 5.42 60.26 0.86 192 4.50 66.70 0.82 216 3.93 76.84 0.76 240 0.43 86.58 0.68 264 -4.41 96.36 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.55 -5.84 21.04 21.35 0.97 0.97 48 -3.42 -5.23 24.91 25.57 0.98 0.97 72 -0.94 -1.60 32.06 32.04 0.97 0.97 96 0.83 42.67 0.96 120 3.35 56.43 0.93 144 3.06 67.63 0.90 168 4.78 79.41 0.85 192 4.85 88.00 0.81 216 3.78 100.49 0.74 240 0.04 114.25 0.69 264 -6.76 126.93 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.12 1.66 1.60 0.88 0.89 48 0.04 0.02 1.83 1.78 0.91 0.91 72 0.13 0.13 2.04 2.01 0.91 0.91 96 0.19 2.37 0.90 120 0.23 2.80 0.86 144 0.15 3.23 0.83 168 0.18 3.51 0.77 192 0.36 3.79 0.72 216 0.51 4.22 0.66 240 0.50 4.73 0.59 264 0.30 5.04 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.19 1.05 1.10 0.93 0.94 48 -0.13 -0.17 1.26 1.31 0.94 0.94 72 -0.06 -0.08 1.54 1.58 0.94 0.94 96 -0.01 1.99 0.91 120 0.04 2.45 0.87 144 0.14 2.87 0.82 168 0.26 3.14 0.78 192 0.22 3.46 0.73 216 0.19 3.79 0.68 240 0.13 4.16 0.64 264 -0.05 4.47 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 160 12 UTC = 157 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 0.01 1.30 1.29 0.92 0.92 48 -0.16 -0.14 1.56 1.55 0.93 0.93 72 -0.22 -0.18 1.90 1.92 0.91 0.91 96 -0.17 2.37 0.88 120 -0.20 2.87 0.83 144 -0.23 3.30 0.78 168 -0.22 3.52 0.75 192 -0.10 3.68 0.70 216 -0.08 3.81 0.68 240 0.07 4.10 0.62 264 0.07 4.40 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 158 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -0.97 3.84 3.72 48 -1.08 -1.09 4.19 4.04 72 -1.05 -1.07 4.65 4.54 96 -1.05 5.24 120 -0.89 6.10 144 -0.85 6.72 168 -0.91 7.05 192 -1.00 7.49 216 -1.11 8.08 240 -1.19 8.47 264 -0.97 8.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.50 4.41 4.58 48 -0.73 -0.62 5.36 5.42 72 -0.69 -0.61 6.44 6.64 96 -0.59 8.23 120 -0.50 9.96 144 -0.48 11.17 168 -0.70 11.96 192 -0.88 12.46 216 -1.00 13.57 240 -1.04 14.48 264 -0.89 15.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 158 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.75 4.85 4.86 48 -1.08 -1.02 5.95 5.98 72 -1.07 -1.01 7.51 7.58 96 -0.91 9.46 120 -0.81 11.67 144 -0.90 13.46 168 -1.17 14.87 192 -1.46 15.87 216 -1.35 17.31 240 -1.24 19.16 264 -1.28 21.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 156 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.52 -4.53 7.34 7.71 0.96 0.97 48 -5.54 -4.63 9.54 9.56 0.97 0.97 72 -6.71 -4.55 11.86 11.75 0.96 0.96 96 -5.43 15.16 0.96 120 -6.33 18.70 0.91 144 -4.85 22.82 0.91 168 -5.49 30.18 0.82 192 -7.30 36.61 0.80 216 -7.29 40.52 0.73 240 -6.90 45.52 0.61 264 -1.44 53.91 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.04 -8.89 10.88 11.48 0.96 0.98 48 -8.18 -7.39 12.24 12.47 0.96 0.96 72 -9.03 -5.97 15.15 15.06 0.93 0.96 96 -7.59 21.19 0.92 120 -7.80 25.86 0.91 144 -7.42 33.23 0.82 168 -6.44 38.10 0.83 192 -10.05 47.41 0.71 216 -9.63 52.33 0.64 240 -8.42 60.35 0.58 264 -6.29 76.53 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.72 -9.26 12.60 13.17 0.97 0.98 48 -10.07 -8.33 15.55 15.86 0.98 0.97 72 -11.49 -8.00 19.95 22.48 0.95 0.96 96 -10.89 31.04 0.92 120 -11.39 40.62 0.84 144 -10.35 49.47 0.73 168 -8.83 54.68 0.81 192 -12.05 58.33 0.77 216 -9.48 73.71 0.70 240 -7.79 81.24 0.68 264 -10.80 100.69 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.57 1.41 1.44 0.86 0.87 48 -0.31 -0.43 1.55 1.54 0.88 0.89 72 -0.23 -0.31 1.69 1.68 0.88 0.91 96 -0.24 1.93 0.88 120 -0.21 2.15 0.83 144 -0.17 2.41 0.78 168 0.03 2.40 0.75 192 -0.08 2.55 0.79 216 -0.22 3.08 0.65 240 -0.16 3.71 0.45 264 -0.27 3.84 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.08 0.85 0.81 0.80 0.88 48 0.17 0.15 0.96 0.98 0.84 0.87 72 0.14 0.17 1.06 1.13 0.83 0.86 96 0.11 1.27 0.86 120 0.12 1.55 0.77 144 0.04 1.84 0.67 168 0.10 1.97 0.68 192 -0.16 1.97 0.72 216 0.14 2.33 0.67 240 0.24 2.52 0.63 264 -0.03 2.80 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.12 0.77 0.91 0.88 0.90 48 -0.18 -0.24 0.94 1.04 0.89 0.88 72 -0.21 -0.27 1.09 1.25 0.88 0.86 96 -0.21 1.51 0.83 120 -0.20 1.79 0.84 144 -0.19 2.24 0.76 168 -0.12 2.43 0.78 192 -0.02 2.49 0.80 216 -0.23 2.74 0.69 240 -0.13 2.97 0.61 264 -0.19 3.21 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.67 3.75 3.98 48 -0.77 -0.65 4.14 4.44 72 -0.83 -0.59 4.63 4.93 96 -0.49 5.42 120 -0.55 6.01 144 -0.53 6.70 168 -0.60 7.11 192 -0.67 7.88 216 -1.03 8.61 240 -0.56 8.85 264 -0.16 9.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.59 3.71 3.74 48 -0.88 -0.58 4.39 4.51 72 -0.93 -0.60 5.11 5.05 96 -0.63 6.03 120 -1.04 6.92 144 -0.65 8.09 168 -0.84 8.55 192 -0.93 9.57 216 -1.53 10.22 240 -1.25 11.54 264 -1.29 12.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.45 4.76 4.50 48 -0.95 -0.51 5.90 5.19 72 -1.04 -0.79 6.71 6.36 96 -0.81 7.98 120 -1.26 9.62 144 -0.93 11.63 168 -0.41 13.12 192 -0.32 14.07 216 -1.22 14.82 240 -1.97 16.63 264 -2.05 18.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.46 -3.39 9.32 10.06 0.76 0.76 48 -4.11 -4.10 9.86 10.49 0.86 0.85 72 -4.78 -4.93 10.66 11.40 0.85 0.84 96 -5.66 11.85 0.83 120 -6.57 12.47 0.84 144 -6.88 13.12 0.85 168 -7.21 13.81 0.83 192 -8.09 14.87 0.83 216 -8.87 15.81 0.81 240 -9.56 16.38 0.79 264 -9.85 17.40 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.54 -5.16 12.03 12.25 0.65 0.63 48 -6.01 -5.82 12.48 12.95 0.79 0.78 72 -6.73 -6.59 13.43 14.00 0.81 0.79 96 -7.35 14.57 0.78 120 -8.37 15.10 0.78 144 -8.91 16.02 0.76 168 -9.62 17.22 0.72 192 -10.76 18.63 0.71 216 -11.76 19.81 0.71 240 -12.48 20.69 0.69 264 -12.82 21.50 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.11 -6.88 15.32 14.40 0.66 0.69 48 -8.32 -8.20 16.37 15.74 0.79 0.80 72 -8.99 -8.76 17.70 16.97 0.81 0.81 96 -9.14 17.89 0.81 120 -9.84 18.95 0.78 144 -10.27 20.83 0.74 168 -10.78 22.28 0.70 192 -12.03 24.19 0.69 216 -13.00 26.06 0.68 240 -14.32 27.59 0.67 264 -15.33 28.87 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.31 1.08 1.09 0.50 0.52 48 -0.40 -0.34 1.14 1.12 0.62 0.63 72 -0.40 -0.33 1.19 1.14 0.61 0.64 96 -0.32 1.17 0.65 120 -0.31 1.21 0.66 144 -0.31 1.24 0.66 168 -0.34 1.31 0.64 192 -0.39 1.37 0.62 216 -0.41 1.41 0.62 240 -0.39 1.46 0.60 264 -0.39 1.51 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.15 0.76 0.78 0.58 0.58 48 0.16 0.16 0.79 0.80 0.67 0.65 72 0.16 0.17 0.82 0.84 0.69 0.68 96 0.18 0.89 0.68 120 0.18 0.93 0.67 144 0.16 0.96 0.69 168 0.14 1.00 0.66 192 0.11 1.04 0.66 216 0.10 1.07 0.64 240 0.10 1.11 0.62 264 0.07 1.15 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.36 0.65 0.72 0.66 0.64 48 -0.38 -0.44 0.76 0.83 0.69 0.69 72 -0.37 -0.42 0.80 0.88 0.68 0.67 96 -0.38 0.91 0.65 120 -0.35 0.99 0.61 144 -0.34 1.07 0.57 168 -0.32 1.14 0.55 192 -0.32 1.20 0.52 216 -0.34 1.22 0.52 240 -0.34 1.24 0.54 264 -0.33 1.30 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.42 3.58 3.60 48 -0.39 -0.33 3.89 3.89 72 -0.24 -0.23 4.20 4.13 96 -0.22 4.39 120 -0.20 4.63 144 -0.19 4.82 168 -0.20 5.03 192 -0.22 5.31 216 -0.24 5.50 240 -0.37 5.67 264 -0.32 5.89 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.79 3.71 3.76 48 -0.80 -0.87 4.07 4.11 72 -0.83 -0.84 4.41 4.47 96 -0.80 4.84 120 -0.76 5.20 144 -0.68 5.58 168 -0.62 6.00 192 -0.66 6.27 216 -0.75 6.60 240 -0.82 6.98 264 -0.88 7.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -0.90 4.85 4.85 48 -1.11 -1.00 5.59 5.58 72 -0.98 -1.01 6.19 6.26 96 -1.07 6.84 120 -1.10 7.39 144 -1.10 7.90 168 -1.03 8.49 192 -1.10 8.93 216 -1.02 9.33 240 -0.88 9.63 264 -0.90 10.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.47 -2.29 10.52 10.51 0.98 0.98 48 -1.50 -2.33 14.37 14.44 0.98 0.98 72 -0.75 -1.80 19.81 19.52 0.97 0.97 96 -1.33 26.66 0.96 120 -1.10 36.55 0.93 144 -2.68 47.80 0.89 168 -3.95 57.14 0.86 192 -5.17 64.50 0.82 216 -4.80 70.67 0.78 240 -5.16 77.13 0.75 264 -8.80 83.33 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.43 -4.04 13.63 13.73 0.99 0.99 48 -3.60 -4.27 19.66 20.05 0.99 0.99 72 -2.39 -3.23 28.96 29.06 0.98 0.98 96 -1.89 40.59 0.96 120 -1.00 56.27 0.93 144 -2.68 73.35 0.89 168 -4.01 87.92 0.85 192 -5.71 99.30 0.80 216 -5.90 108.38 0.77 240 -5.34 118.33 0.73 264 -9.44 127.79 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 416 12 UTC = 403 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.63 -6.74 19.69 20.11 0.98 0.98 48 -6.79 -7.87 26.44 27.19 0.99 0.99 72 -5.76 -6.96 37.38 37.56 0.98 0.98 96 -5.59 51.80 0.96 120 -4.65 71.78 0.94 144 -6.51 94.87 0.90 168 -6.88 115.49 0.85 192 -8.18 133.34 0.80 216 -8.71 147.32 0.76 240 -8.22 158.71 0.73 264 -12.49 169.73 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 415 12 UTC = 403 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.24 1.60 1.59 0.91 0.91 48 -0.23 -0.21 1.83 1.82 0.93 0.94 72 -0.20 -0.18 2.15 2.16 0.93 0.93 96 -0.14 2.60 0.92 120 -0.12 3.13 0.90 144 -0.17 3.74 0.86 168 -0.21 4.28 0.81 192 -0.23 4.89 0.76 216 -0.21 5.19 0.73 240 -0.13 5.54 0.70 264 -0.17 5.92 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 423 12 UTC = 410 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.11 1.02 1.03 0.96 0.96 48 -0.13 -0.13 1.31 1.33 0.96 0.96 72 -0.10 -0.11 1.72 1.71 0.95 0.95 96 -0.06 2.19 0.93 120 -0.02 2.80 0.89 144 -0.02 3.41 0.85 168 0.04 3.93 0.80 192 0.00 4.48 0.73 216 -0.02 4.79 0.70 240 -0.03 5.04 0.69 264 -0.08 5.30 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 456 12 UTC = 441 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.08 1.23 1.22 0.93 0.94 48 0.01 -0.02 1.53 1.51 0.93 0.94 72 -0.03 -0.05 1.94 1.91 0.91 0.91 96 -0.08 2.39 0.89 120 -0.13 2.91 0.84 144 -0.12 3.37 0.80 168 -0.12 3.71 0.77 192 -0.03 3.98 0.75 216 -0.05 4.08 0.73 240 -0.06 4.26 0.71 264 -0.04 4.47 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 450 12 UTC = 435 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.90 3.97 3.98 48 -0.97 -0.99 4.54 4.51 72 -0.98 -0.99 5.25 5.28 96 -0.98 6.18 120 -0.94 7.31 144 -0.88 8.43 168 -0.84 9.26 192 -0.74 10.09 216 -0.76 10.61 240 -0.78 11.05 264 -0.62 11.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 412 12 UTC = 398 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.62 4.50 4.57 48 -0.76 -0.75 5.70 5.75 72 -0.82 -0.79 7.29 7.34 96 -0.84 9.21 120 -0.90 11.27 144 -0.94 13.36 168 -0.90 14.88 192 -0.85 16.09 216 -0.89 16.90 240 -0.87 17.75 264 -0.64 18.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 444 12 UTC = 428 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.69 5.13 5.04 48 -0.83 -0.82 6.60 6.54 72 -0.78 -0.83 8.71 8.58 96 -0.82 11.00 120 -0.99 13.92 144 -1.05 17.22 168 -1.10 19.81 192 -1.01 21.72 216 -0.97 23.14 240 -0.75 24.44 264 -0.97 25.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 441 12 UTC = 424 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.14 -5.16 9.02 9.40 0.97 0.97 48 -5.20 -6.30 11.44 12.10 0.97 0.97 72 -6.62 -7.98 14.08 14.94 0.96 0.96 96 -9.90 19.17 0.93 120 -9.90 23.14 0.90 144 -9.99 28.12 0.87 168 -10.81 34.42 0.78 192 -12.16 38.01 0.74 216 -11.15 42.41 0.62 240 -10.63 45.44 0.60 264 -13.00 51.20 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.78 -7.62 12.00 12.05 0.97 0.97 48 -7.45 -7.09 14.12 14.11 0.97 0.97 72 -7.72 -6.95 17.97 18.26 0.95 0.96 96 -8.11 23.83 0.94 120 -7.24 30.55 0.91 144 -6.80 39.25 0.84 168 -6.68 46.68 0.80 192 -9.34 51.38 0.75 216 -9.22 59.08 0.67 240 -7.98 65.29 0.64 264 -11.67 73.37 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.65 -8.44 15.18 15.71 0.97 0.98 48 -8.77 -7.99 19.05 19.68 0.97 0.98 72 -9.00 -7.23 24.72 26.72 0.96 0.96 96 -7.84 34.09 0.94 120 -5.90 45.77 0.91 144 -4.03 57.97 0.85 168 -2.69 68.25 0.80 192 -7.00 74.90 0.77 216 -5.25 89.23 0.69 240 -3.73 98.10 0.67 264 -10.40 108.19 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.44 1.57 1.52 0.88 0.87 48 -0.53 -0.39 1.67 1.64 0.89 0.90 72 -0.46 -0.30 1.82 1.73 0.88 0.89 96 -0.25 1.89 0.86 120 -0.21 2.13 0.83 144 -0.24 2.39 0.78 168 -0.22 2.73 0.73 192 -0.35 2.95 0.71 216 -0.43 3.28 0.61 240 -0.36 3.54 0.50 264 -0.33 3.65 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.17 0.91 0.92 0.87 0.91 48 0.23 0.26 1.05 1.08 0.89 0.91 72 0.27 0.34 1.24 1.34 0.87 0.90 96 0.38 1.56 0.88 120 0.47 1.89 0.85 144 0.52 2.26 0.79 168 0.57 2.53 0.73 192 0.43 2.62 0.73 216 0.51 2.96 0.65 240 0.56 3.26 0.59 264 0.40 3.33 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.21 0.97 1.02 0.90 0.92 48 -0.24 -0.31 1.17 1.24 0.90 0.91 72 -0.25 -0.30 1.43 1.52 0.89 0.90 96 -0.24 1.84 0.86 120 -0.22 2.25 0.80 144 -0.16 2.60 0.73 168 -0.10 2.87 0.70 192 -0.06 3.09 0.68 216 -0.10 3.38 0.62 240 -0.09 3.61 0.55 264 -0.12 3.78 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -1.05 4.10 4.18 48 -0.85 -1.09 4.47 4.49 72 -0.82 -1.07 4.82 4.89 96 -0.99 5.38 120 -0.97 5.88 144 -0.99 6.61 168 -1.05 7.21 192 -0.87 7.78 216 -0.86 8.29 240 -0.76 8.56 264 -0.78 8.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.68 3.81 3.95 48 -0.85 -0.70 4.52 4.64 72 -0.90 -0.71 5.27 5.49 96 -0.65 6.47 120 -0.76 7.51 144 -0.61 8.62 168 -0.63 9.70 192 -0.65 10.56 216 -0.66 11.26 240 -0.85 12.13 264 -0.95 12.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.72 4.98 4.95 48 -0.78 -0.63 6.31 6.15 72 -0.68 -0.51 7.65 7.75 96 -0.41 9.07 120 -0.48 11.16 144 -0.34 13.12 168 -0.36 14.96 192 -0.33 16.17 216 -0.31 17.24 240 -0.90 18.68 264 -1.17 19.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 40 ---------------------------------------------------------