VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY FEBRUARY 2017 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.03 0.99 1.03 1.00 0.99 15.9 16.1 48 0.12 0.08 1.77 1.80 0.99 0.98 24.7 24.8 72 0.18 0.15 2.64 2.64 0.97 0.97 33.0 33.1 96 0.20 3.67 0.93 41.6 120 0.20 4.86 0.88 50.0 144 0.20 6.07 0.82 57.4 168 0.19 7.08 0.75 63.3 192 0.24 8.16 0.67 68.3 216 0.19 9.39 0.56 73.1 240 0.10 10.25 0.47 76.1 264 0.15 11.17 0.37 80.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.81 7.54 7.79 1.00 1.00 9.2 9.3 48 -0.78 -1.22 15.12 15.49 0.99 0.99 17.0 17.0 72 -1.12 -1.64 24.59 24.79 0.98 0.98 24.7 24.6 96 -2.00 35.98 0.95 32.3 120 -2.69 49.13 0.91 39.9 144 -3.55 62.04 0.85 46.2 168 -4.17 76.05 0.77 52.2 192 -4.02 89.96 0.68 57.2 216 -4.58 102.96 0.58 61.1 240 -5.53 113.44 0.48 64.7 264 -5.27 123.31 0.38 68.3 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.98 -1.18 9.76 9.97 1.00 1.00 7.5 7.5 48 -2.15 -2.44 18.74 19.44 0.99 0.99 12.7 12.9 72 -3.43 -3.78 30.59 30.96 0.98 0.98 18.7 18.6 96 -5.28 45.59 0.95 24.9 120 -7.20 62.15 0.92 31.6 144 -8.88 78.96 0.86 37.6 168 -10.15 97.92 0.79 43.4 192 -10.46 116.93 0.70 48.4 216 -11.56 133.99 0.60 52.1 240 -13.49 148.50 0.50 55.7 264 -14.43 162.32 0.40 59.3 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.01 0.50 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 -0.01 0.93 0.94 0.98 0.98 72 -0.04 -0.04 1.39 1.40 0.95 0.95 96 -0.08 1.88 0.91 120 -0.11 2.44 0.84 144 -0.16 2.95 0.77 168 -0.20 3.46 0.68 192 -0.23 3.91 0.59 216 -0.26 4.25 0.52 240 -0.31 4.60 0.43 264 -0.34 4.92 0.34 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.09 0.70 0.69 0.99 0.99 48 -0.21 -0.17 1.16 1.17 0.96 0.96 72 -0.27 -0.23 1.62 1.65 0.93 0.92 96 -0.28 2.12 0.87 120 -0.32 2.64 0.79 144 -0.34 3.09 0.71 168 -0.33 3.50 0.62 192 -0.31 3.83 0.55 216 -0.33 4.15 0.47 240 -0.36 4.39 0.42 264 -0.45 4.65 0.35 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 2.30 2.31 48 -0.09 -0.09 4.19 4.17 72 -0.14 -0.14 6.06 5.99 96 -0.18 7.87 120 -0.23 9.80 144 -0.22 11.57 168 -0.21 13.29 192 -0.26 14.73 216 -0.32 15.90 240 -0.36 17.00 264 -0.45 18.12 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.06 3.23 3.23 48 -0.21 -0.11 5.23 5.27 72 -0.25 -0.16 7.50 7.45 96 -0.22 9.93 120 -0.28 12.55 144 -0.27 15.19 168 -0.28 17.70 192 -0.36 20.06 216 -0.37 21.90 240 -0.41 23.58 264 -0.54 25.23 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.27 3.24 3.24 0.97 0.97 24.2 24.7 48 -0.99 -0.66 4.78 4.99 0.94 0.94 31.7 32.2 72 -1.29 -0.96 5.63 6.00 0.91 0.91 36.6 36.9 96 -1.18 6.62 0.89 40.5 120 -1.57 7.68 0.84 43.9 144 -2.09 8.91 0.78 46.8 168 -2.42 9.96 0.73 49.4 192 -2.94 10.65 0.72 51.9 216 -2.93 11.22 0.70 54.3 240 -2.94 12.57 0.63 56.9 264 -3.50 13.42 0.58 59.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.50 4.17 4.18 0.99 0.99 18.7 19.0 48 -2.66 -2.59 6.90 7.09 0.97 0.96 25.8 26.2 72 -4.00 -3.85 9.31 9.36 0.95 0.94 31.0 31.3 96 -4.72 11.34 0.91 35.5 120 -5.43 13.48 0.87 39.3 144 -5.81 15.40 0.82 43.2 168 -6.27 17.48 0.77 47.1 192 -6.88 19.69 0.73 50.3 216 -7.15 22.21 0.67 53.2 240 -7.23 24.51 0.61 55.8 264 -7.68 26.39 0.56 58.0 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.08 0.37 0.39 0.97 0.97 48 -0.12 -0.12 0.60 0.61 0.92 0.92 72 -0.15 -0.15 0.77 0.78 0.87 0.86 96 -0.16 0.90 0.82 120 -0.15 0.98 0.78 144 -0.14 1.06 0.74 168 -0.14 1.16 0.69 192 -0.14 1.25 0.64 216 -0.14 1.32 0.59 240 -0.15 1.41 0.54 264 -0.15 1.51 0.49 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.28 0.41 0.43 0.96 0.95 48 -0.43 -0.45 0.65 0.67 0.89 0.89 72 -0.49 -0.52 0.78 0.81 0.83 0.83 96 -0.55 0.89 0.77 120 -0.56 0.96 0.72 144 -0.55 1.01 0.66 168 -0.53 1.07 0.61 192 -0.52 1.14 0.55 216 -0.53 1.20 0.51 240 -0.50 1.22 0.50 264 -0.48 1.24 0.46 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.08 1.34 1.33 48 -0.14 -0.11 1.98 1.95 72 -0.15 -0.14 2.42 2.39 96 -0.14 2.72 120 -0.11 3.06 144 -0.07 3.40 168 -0.03 3.70 192 -0.05 3.97 216 -0.10 4.21 240 -0.14 4.45 264 -0.18 4.75 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.23 2.88 2.89 48 -0.42 -0.36 4.23 4.29 72 -0.42 -0.41 5.35 5.43 96 -0.41 6.34 120 -0.41 7.17 144 -0.40 8.00 168 -0.38 8.92 192 -0.29 9.68 216 -0.21 10.43 240 -0.11 11.00 264 -0.13 11.38 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.83 0.82 1.00 0.99 12.9 13.3 48 -0.08 -0.07 1.64 1.59 0.98 0.98 22.7 22.8 72 -0.14 -0.13 2.61 2.50 0.96 0.95 31.8 31.8 96 -0.16 3.54 0.90 40.0 120 -0.13 4.60 0.83 47.3 144 -0.08 5.67 0.74 53.9 168 -0.03 6.65 0.65 59.4 192 0.01 7.42 0.57 63.2 216 0.11 7.96 0.52 65.9 240 0.22 8.46 0.47 67.9 264 0.22 8.93 0.41 69.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.52 1.42 7.58 7.53 1.00 1.00 10.0 9.9 48 2.26 2.28 15.46 15.36 0.99 0.99 18.2 18.1 72 2.75 2.86 24.92 24.89 0.96 0.96 26.5 26.3 96 3.25 35.78 0.92 33.9 120 4.02 46.78 0.86 40.6 144 4.73 58.30 0.77 46.9 168 5.35 70.60 0.67 53.1 192 5.70 81.22 0.57 57.4 216 6.65 90.05 0.49 61.0 240 7.70 97.23 0.41 63.6 264 8.11 104.23 0.33 66.0 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.58 0.39 9.68 9.76 1.00 1.00 8.8 8.8 48 0.50 0.40 20.01 19.80 0.99 0.99 15.8 15.7 72 0.38 0.43 32.57 32.64 0.97 0.97 23.1 23.1 96 0.55 48.18 0.92 30.6 120 0.88 64.59 0.86 37.3 144 1.93 80.97 0.78 43.7 168 2.93 98.19 0.68 49.8 192 3.27 113.72 0.58 54.3 216 4.82 128.00 0.48 58.2 240 6.81 138.46 0.40 60.9 264 7.78 147.79 0.33 63.3 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.06 0.47 0.47 0.99 0.99 48 0.11 0.11 0.89 0.89 0.97 0.97 72 0.14 0.14 1.35 1.35 0.93 0.93 96 0.16 1.82 0.86 120 0.15 2.28 0.78 144 0.19 2.71 0.69 168 0.22 3.14 0.59 192 0.22 3.49 0.49 216 0.24 3.81 0.39 240 0.28 4.08 0.31 264 0.34 4.24 0.26 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.19 0.63 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 -0.31 -0.31 1.14 1.14 0.95 0.95 72 -0.39 -0.38 1.67 1.65 0.88 0.88 96 -0.43 2.16 0.80 120 -0.46 2.58 0.71 144 -0.47 2.98 0.61 168 -0.48 3.37 0.50 192 -0.49 3.65 0.42 216 -0.48 3.89 0.34 240 -0.45 4.03 0.30 264 -0.45 4.09 0.28 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.13 2.07 2.07 48 -0.20 -0.22 3.82 3.79 72 -0.25 -0.28 5.57 5.54 96 -0.30 7.29 120 -0.36 8.75 144 -0.39 10.23 168 -0.42 11.78 192 -0.42 12.88 216 -0.41 13.86 240 -0.41 14.58 264 -0.38 15.29 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.13 3.11 3.08 48 -0.21 -0.20 5.46 5.43 72 -0.24 -0.24 7.96 7.97 96 -0.24 10.76 120 -0.25 13.25 144 -0.24 15.68 168 -0.28 18.00 192 -0.29 19.86 216 -0.18 21.59 240 -0.09 22.68 264 -0.11 23.72 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.18 -3.41 8.92 9.07 0.99 0.98 48 -5.20 -5.51 13.87 14.85 0.97 0.97 72 -4.66 -6.01 20.22 21.26 0.96 0.96 96 -5.47 28.38 0.94 120 -5.48 38.06 0.91 144 -5.82 45.42 0.85 168 -4.58 52.77 0.80 192 -0.64 57.37 0.80 216 4.41 58.91 0.80 240 0.77 62.23 0.76 264 -1.17 73.60 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.46 -6.00 11.58 12.33 0.99 0.99 48 -8.76 -9.09 20.25 21.75 0.98 0.98 72 -9.33 -10.71 31.42 32.50 0.96 0.97 96 -10.05 43.53 0.95 120 -10.26 58.54 0.92 144 -10.55 70.50 0.89 168 -8.16 82.83 0.85 192 -5.30 94.14 0.84 216 -1.14 99.00 0.82 240 -7.41 108.53 0.78 264 -13.20 119.74 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.22 -8.66 15.87 15.89 0.99 0.99 48 -13.46 -14.14 27.30 28.28 0.99 0.98 72 -15.40 -16.85 43.10 44.86 0.97 0.96 96 -15.81 61.60 0.94 120 -15.66 79.33 0.92 144 -14.83 97.29 0.90 168 -12.77 112.61 0.87 192 -10.92 129.29 0.85 216 -7.98 137.15 0.82 240 -18.50 153.36 0.77 264 -29.35 168.72 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.55 1.66 1.82 0.94 0.94 48 -0.31 -0.62 1.94 2.13 0.95 0.95 72 -0.40 -0.68 2.38 2.59 0.94 0.93 96 -0.73 3.17 0.91 120 -0.77 4.01 0.87 144 -0.79 4.86 0.82 168 -0.70 5.09 0.83 192 -0.75 5.71 0.83 216 -0.99 6.25 0.78 240 -1.08 6.71 0.74 264 -1.09 7.11 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 0.96 0.99 0.96 0.96 48 -0.14 -0.12 1.30 1.35 0.96 0.96 72 -0.19 -0.19 1.85 1.90 0.93 0.93 96 -0.15 2.47 0.91 120 -0.10 3.10 0.88 144 -0.08 3.65 0.85 168 -0.08 4.05 0.84 192 -0.21 4.50 0.82 216 -0.28 4.77 0.79 240 -0.53 5.22 0.75 264 -0.82 5.55 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 91 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.17 1.20 1.24 0.95 0.95 48 0.05 0.06 1.59 1.64 0.94 0.94 72 -0.02 0.04 2.04 2.09 0.91 0.91 96 0.06 2.52 0.88 120 0.24 3.07 0.85 144 0.28 3.56 0.79 168 0.29 4.10 0.72 192 0.28 4.34 0.70 216 0.30 4.58 0.65 240 0.21 4.85 0.60 264 0.09 5.24 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.94 4.06 4.17 48 -0.61 -0.93 4.65 4.95 72 -0.61 -1.02 5.47 5.82 96 -1.10 6.85 120 -1.14 8.33 144 -0.91 9.65 168 -0.64 10.57 192 -0.89 10.82 216 -1.01 11.00 240 -1.07 11.77 264 -1.11 12.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.61 4.65 4.80 48 -0.85 -0.77 6.00 6.25 72 -0.95 -0.84 7.92 7.90 96 -0.91 9.87 120 -0.98 12.07 144 -1.30 13.91 168 -1.69 15.22 192 -1.80 16.60 216 -1.67 17.16 240 -1.70 18.71 264 -1.67 19.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.72 5.80 6.00 48 -1.12 -0.86 7.93 7.78 72 -1.27 -0.96 10.68 10.35 96 -1.00 13.45 120 -1.13 16.18 144 -1.44 18.96 168 -2.05 21.01 192 -2.09 23.09 216 -1.97 24.82 240 -1.50 27.46 264 -1.74 29.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.99 -7.27 9.63 11.14 0.98 0.98 48 -6.30 -9.58 13.46 15.06 0.98 0.98 72 -5.92 -11.00 17.21 19.43 0.97 0.97 96 -9.36 27.58 0.93 120 -5.72 33.36 0.90 144 -7.80 42.32 0.89 168 -15.24 51.47 0.88 192 -10.84 64.39 0.82 216 -19.43 77.96 0.76 240 -38.13 99.58 0.74 264 -42.17 108.75 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.62 -11.36 13.93 15.16 0.99 0.98 48 -12.20 -14.55 19.53 21.50 0.98 0.98 72 -12.37 -16.84 27.47 29.27 0.97 0.97 96 -16.20 40.35 0.93 120 -13.60 52.47 0.90 144 -11.09 64.01 0.89 168 -19.28 75.80 0.86 192 -16.81 98.23 0.81 216 -21.54 109.54 0.79 240 -44.34 136.04 0.75 264 -45.97 144.46 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.67 -13.73 17.66 19.01 0.99 0.99 48 -14.48 -17.69 24.34 26.83 0.99 0.99 72 -13.50 -19.60 36.09 38.74 0.97 0.97 96 -19.81 53.69 0.94 120 -17.73 72.60 0.91 144 -12.83 90.39 0.88 168 -20.94 105.44 0.85 192 -19.15 139.21 0.78 216 -17.79 154.25 0.76 240 -42.39 179.69 0.72 264 -43.09 185.73 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.07 1.35 1.30 0.90 0.87 48 -0.42 -0.16 1.51 1.45 0.92 0.91 72 -0.50 -0.21 1.76 1.66 0.91 0.91 96 -0.37 2.02 0.87 120 -0.46 2.57 0.80 144 -0.19 3.06 0.75 168 -0.13 3.39 0.72 192 -0.29 4.13 0.66 216 -0.01 4.46 0.63 240 -0.20 4.61 0.62 264 -0.03 5.17 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.20 0.83 0.82 0.96 0.96 48 -0.22 -0.25 1.09 1.08 0.95 0.95 72 -0.22 -0.31 1.52 1.51 0.93 0.93 96 -0.34 1.98 0.88 120 -0.32 2.70 0.80 144 -0.09 3.07 0.76 168 -0.10 3.34 0.71 192 -0.18 4.10 0.62 216 0.09 4.35 0.64 240 -0.11 4.45 0.61 264 -0.04 4.50 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.29 1.06 1.05 0.91 0.92 48 0.33 0.26 1.31 1.32 0.91 0.91 72 0.40 0.37 1.69 1.63 0.87 0.88 96 0.35 2.08 0.81 120 0.23 2.68 0.70 144 0.02 2.94 0.63 168 -0.06 3.12 0.60 192 -0.19 3.55 0.49 216 0.11 3.48 0.51 240 0.26 3.65 0.49 264 0.22 3.74 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.79 4.08 4.23 48 -0.89 -0.88 4.62 4.69 72 -1.06 -0.90 5.36 5.34 96 -1.13 6.54 120 -1.21 7.72 144 -0.74 8.45 168 -0.06 9.51 192 -0.11 11.00 216 0.39 11.31 240 0.56 12.03 264 -0.11 12.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.52 4.45 4.27 48 -0.52 -0.50 5.66 5.40 72 -0.50 -0.48 7.44 7.11 96 -0.68 9.48 120 -0.70 11.85 144 -0.21 14.03 168 0.22 15.04 192 0.22 17.46 216 0.67 17.39 240 1.00 19.23 264 0.40 19.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.45 5.12 5.03 48 -0.25 -0.37 6.58 6.63 72 -0.24 -0.35 9.58 9.57 96 -0.45 12.88 120 -0.29 16.78 144 0.26 20.83 168 0.70 22.49 192 1.07 27.03 216 1.45 26.90 240 1.54 28.83 264 1.07 29.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 -0.68 11.35 10.56 0.97 0.97 48 0.66 -0.87 13.43 12.86 0.97 0.97 72 1.12 1.18 16.67 15.93 0.96 0.96 96 1.78 19.48 0.94 120 1.38 23.74 0.92 144 4.85 31.67 0.85 168 8.04 36.46 0.80 192 8.53 42.38 0.76 216 9.41 48.61 0.73 240 8.96 54.11 0.69 264 9.71 57.61 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 122 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.43 -1.38 13.07 13.15 0.98 0.98 48 -0.41 -0.61 16.55 16.80 0.98 0.98 72 0.84 2.38 21.70 22.05 0.97 0.98 96 4.12 28.87 0.96 120 3.77 37.53 0.92 144 6.68 48.41 0.90 168 10.45 60.06 0.86 192 12.36 70.19 0.84 216 11.86 78.02 0.80 240 11.60 88.73 0.74 264 11.60 96.91 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.21 -6.52 21.38 21.10 0.98 0.98 48 -7.09 -7.51 25.65 26.44 0.98 0.98 72 -6.41 -4.84 30.50 31.50 0.98 0.98 96 -3.62 39.07 0.96 120 -4.75 49.51 0.94 144 -2.30 62.61 0.91 168 2.83 75.83 0.89 192 4.88 90.56 0.85 216 3.40 100.54 0.82 240 3.95 117.08 0.75 264 4.04 131.26 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.35 1.78 1.75 0.91 0.91 48 -0.14 -0.29 1.97 1.96 0.93 0.94 72 -0.05 -0.18 2.19 2.18 0.93 0.94 96 -0.11 2.44 0.93 120 -0.12 2.84 0.90 144 -0.07 3.32 0.87 168 0.03 3.93 0.82 192 0.19 4.27 0.78 216 0.15 4.58 0.72 240 0.12 5.11 0.67 264 -0.01 5.57 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.19 1.06 1.06 0.95 0.95 48 -0.20 -0.18 1.27 1.29 0.96 0.96 72 -0.18 -0.17 1.51 1.53 0.95 0.95 96 -0.13 1.81 0.94 120 -0.15 2.22 0.91 144 -0.16 2.69 0.88 168 -0.07 3.08 0.86 192 -0.02 3.51 0.80 216 -0.08 3.81 0.75 240 0.01 4.38 0.67 264 0.01 4.93 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 160 12 UTC = 157 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 0.03 1.40 1.37 0.92 0.92 48 -0.16 -0.09 1.66 1.67 0.92 0.92 72 -0.23 -0.17 1.96 1.98 0.91 0.91 96 -0.24 2.33 0.89 120 -0.21 2.78 0.86 144 -0.25 3.21 0.82 168 -0.22 3.61 0.77 192 -0.30 3.90 0.73 216 -0.29 4.15 0.69 240 -0.38 4.44 0.64 264 -0.59 4.69 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -0.89 3.87 3.81 48 -1.11 -1.01 4.22 4.17 72 -1.17 -1.07 4.65 4.60 96 -1.14 5.05 120 -1.10 5.70 144 -1.15 6.43 168 -1.31 7.06 192 -1.27 7.40 216 -1.24 7.81 240 -1.13 8.48 264 -1.21 9.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.38 4.44 4.45 48 -0.64 -0.46 5.32 5.31 72 -0.77 -0.62 6.23 6.24 96 -0.66 7.25 120 -0.57 8.75 144 -0.70 10.00 168 -0.64 11.38 192 -0.69 12.59 216 -0.56 13.00 240 -0.31 14.43 264 -0.21 15.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.69 5.27 5.26 48 -0.93 -0.93 6.41 6.50 72 -1.16 -1.21 7.37 7.41 96 -1.27 8.79 120 -1.33 10.55 144 -1.50 12.56 168 -1.27 14.47 192 -1.46 16.06 216 -1.27 16.69 240 -0.90 19.11 264 -0.81 20.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 155 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.84 -3.21 7.06 6.96 0.97 0.98 48 -3.99 -3.51 8.63 9.89 0.97 0.98 72 -3.51 -2.02 10.47 12.87 0.97 0.95 96 -3.95 17.72 0.92 120 -5.37 22.19 0.94 144 -1.71 27.17 0.87 168 1.11 34.62 0.80 192 0.42 41.48 0.72 216 1.77 42.49 0.71 240 0.66 47.40 0.69 264 2.20 49.92 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.15 -8.09 11.33 11.46 0.96 0.98 48 -8.20 -7.97 12.72 13.57 0.98 0.98 72 -7.29 -5.77 15.13 18.45 0.97 0.97 96 -6.28 26.48 0.95 120 -7.54 32.57 0.95 144 -5.19 36.06 0.88 168 0.65 44.73 0.85 192 -0.33 62.60 0.76 216 4.49 66.81 0.70 240 -3.84 73.08 0.69 264 0.06 68.83 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.11 -7.58 12.92 13.47 0.97 0.97 48 -10.05 -8.05 17.44 17.42 0.98 0.99 72 -10.92 -8.00 22.87 26.91 0.98 0.97 96 -7.50 38.42 0.91 120 -10.24 49.22 0.93 144 -9.21 53.51 0.89 168 0.79 65.20 0.83 192 1.15 93.57 0.75 216 2.65 98.53 0.72 240 -11.23 108.52 0.68 264 -7.53 99.79 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.47 1.48 1.30 0.83 0.83 48 -0.51 -0.45 1.58 1.38 0.90 0.90 72 -0.42 -0.41 1.68 1.57 0.91 0.92 96 -0.33 1.76 0.90 120 -0.31 2.17 0.86 144 -0.32 2.28 0.85 168 -0.18 2.44 0.82 192 -0.31 3.18 0.73 216 -0.13 3.72 0.70 240 -0.41 3.95 0.60 264 -0.31 3.62 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.14 0.86 0.90 0.81 0.85 48 0.16 0.18 0.95 1.04 0.88 0.90 72 0.14 0.14 1.09 1.33 0.91 0.86 96 0.22 1.71 0.84 120 0.17 1.82 0.79 144 -0.02 1.79 0.79 168 0.32 2.03 0.83 192 0.23 2.75 0.68 216 0.43 2.75 0.66 240 0.14 3.02 0.59 264 0.23 3.07 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.12 0.74 0.88 0.87 0.91 48 -0.26 -0.21 0.94 1.05 0.90 0.84 72 -0.36 -0.26 1.10 1.33 0.91 0.84 96 -0.27 1.62 0.86 120 -0.36 1.75 0.88 144 -0.26 1.96 0.81 168 -0.39 2.16 0.79 192 -0.17 2.33 0.72 216 -0.67 2.41 0.71 240 -0.74 2.58 0.68 264 -0.79 3.01 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.93 3.69 3.70 48 -0.65 -0.93 4.08 4.24 72 -0.77 -0.95 4.42 4.97 96 -0.93 5.55 120 -1.10 6.09 144 -1.19 6.44 168 -1.47 7.56 192 -1.22 8.23 216 -1.22 8.94 240 -1.88 9.10 264 -1.90 9.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.63 3.84 3.85 48 -0.98 -0.64 4.42 4.74 72 -1.07 -0.76 5.18 5.88 96 -0.75 6.85 120 -0.91 8.00 144 -1.41 8.85 168 -1.82 10.84 192 -1.71 11.49 216 -1.52 11.54 240 -1.92 12.98 264 -2.30 13.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.97 4.72 4.79 48 -0.65 -0.81 5.67 5.57 72 -0.88 -0.88 6.98 7.21 96 -1.17 9.42 120 -0.74 10.37 144 -1.22 12.23 168 -1.16 15.75 192 -1.15 16.95 216 -0.48 17.35 240 -0.95 19.44 264 -1.11 20.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.83 -2.48 8.98 9.96 0.78 0.73 48 -3.50 -3.49 9.54 10.37 0.85 0.84 72 -4.04 -3.98 10.20 11.01 0.87 0.85 96 -4.52 11.41 0.86 120 -5.25 12.13 0.83 144 -5.51 12.72 0.80 168 -5.60 13.70 0.76 192 -6.39 14.41 0.75 216 -6.14 14.46 0.76 240 -5.82 15.42 0.75 264 -6.91 16.26 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.58 -4.02 11.61 11.75 0.71 0.67 48 -5.22 -5.10 12.16 12.52 0.82 0.81 72 -5.89 -5.53 12.98 13.43 0.83 0.81 96 -6.37 13.99 0.83 120 -7.34 14.64 0.82 144 -7.69 15.73 0.80 168 -7.80 16.79 0.75 192 -8.36 17.65 0.69 216 -7.93 18.02 0.62 240 -7.62 18.81 0.60 264 -7.87 19.72 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.72 -6.63 14.73 14.76 0.73 0.69 48 -8.59 -8.72 16.36 16.48 0.82 0.81 72 -9.58 -9.49 17.83 17.88 0.84 0.83 96 -10.48 18.94 0.84 120 -11.31 20.03 0.84 144 -11.42 21.44 0.82 168 -11.52 22.81 0.79 192 -11.74 24.33 0.74 216 -11.09 25.99 0.66 240 -10.29 27.74 0.62 264 -10.14 29.09 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.30 1.09 1.08 0.53 0.50 48 -0.44 -0.35 1.16 1.13 0.64 0.62 72 -0.46 -0.36 1.19 1.16 0.66 0.66 96 -0.35 1.18 0.66 120 -0.34 1.21 0.67 144 -0.34 1.23 0.69 168 -0.33 1.27 0.69 192 -0.32 1.30 0.69 216 -0.31 1.34 0.66 240 -0.33 1.44 0.62 264 -0.32 1.50 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.11 0.82 0.80 0.62 0.58 48 0.15 0.12 0.89 0.85 0.68 0.69 72 0.15 0.15 0.93 0.90 0.72 0.72 96 0.15 0.95 0.72 120 0.14 0.98 0.73 144 0.15 1.03 0.71 168 0.15 1.08 0.68 192 0.15 1.19 0.64 216 0.15 1.26 0.59 240 0.14 1.34 0.53 264 0.17 1.36 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.40 0.70 0.73 0.68 0.69 48 -0.51 -0.53 0.86 0.87 0.72 0.71 72 -0.51 -0.55 0.92 0.96 0.72 0.72 96 -0.53 0.98 0.73 120 -0.51 1.03 0.72 144 -0.50 1.07 0.71 168 -0.49 1.10 0.69 192 -0.49 1.11 0.68 216 -0.49 1.15 0.66 240 -0.47 1.17 0.65 264 -0.43 1.20 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.44 3.55 3.47 48 -0.22 -0.42 3.83 3.70 72 -0.22 -0.37 4.08 3.90 96 -0.40 4.04 120 -0.42 4.23 144 -0.37 4.49 168 -0.32 4.77 192 -0.33 4.92 216 -0.45 5.13 240 -0.47 5.40 264 -0.55 5.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.96 3.86 3.88 48 -0.89 -1.08 4.24 4.31 72 -1.00 -1.09 4.63 4.67 96 -1.09 4.94 120 -1.03 5.33 144 -1.10 5.75 168 -1.20 6.18 192 -1.19 6.56 216 -1.29 6.84 240 -1.33 7.30 264 -1.41 7.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.96 4.85 4.86 48 -1.04 -1.05 5.66 5.64 72 -1.00 -1.07 6.45 6.41 96 -1.16 6.95 120 -1.26 7.48 144 -1.44 7.99 168 -1.54 8.59 192 -1.54 9.10 216 -1.62 9.50 240 -1.61 9.99 264 -1.68 10.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.03 -2.78 10.48 10.68 0.98 0.98 48 -2.46 -3.62 14.15 14.72 0.98 0.98 72 -2.23 -3.32 19.11 19.74 0.97 0.97 96 -3.16 26.59 0.96 120 -3.80 34.45 0.94 144 -3.38 42.68 0.91 168 -2.89 51.10 0.88 192 -0.78 59.64 0.85 216 -1.04 68.90 0.80 240 -4.72 77.31 0.77 264 -4.23 84.38 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 404 12 UTC = 393 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.68 -4.12 13.39 13.63 0.99 0.99 48 -4.64 -5.32 19.17 19.96 0.98 0.98 72 -4.59 -5.25 27.29 28.17 0.97 0.97 96 -4.89 38.00 0.96 120 -6.06 51.06 0.93 144 -5.96 63.15 0.91 168 -5.20 76.41 0.88 192 -2.72 91.43 0.84 216 -2.29 103.36 0.81 240 -6.24 115.54 0.76 264 -6.90 123.98 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 420 12 UTC = 407 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.64 -7.63 19.82 19.86 0.99 0.99 48 -8.81 -10.26 26.37 27.51 0.99 0.99 72 -9.33 -10.68 36.31 37.90 0.98 0.98 96 -10.72 50.92 0.96 120 -12.44 67.03 0.94 144 -12.59 83.14 0.92 168 -11.93 99.72 0.89 192 -10.15 120.88 0.85 216 -8.67 136.80 0.81 240 -13.72 152.93 0.77 264 -15.84 165.06 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 419 12 UTC = 407 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.31 1.63 1.64 0.93 0.93 48 -0.26 -0.34 1.85 1.87 0.94 0.95 72 -0.28 -0.35 2.16 2.19 0.94 0.94 96 -0.35 2.62 0.92 120 -0.40 3.21 0.89 144 -0.40 3.83 0.85 168 -0.35 4.27 0.83 192 -0.27 4.77 0.80 216 -0.24 5.27 0.76 240 -0.24 5.70 0.72 264 -0.23 6.08 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 426 12 UTC = 413 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.14 0.99 1.00 0.96 0.96 48 -0.15 -0.16 1.25 1.29 0.96 0.96 72 -0.16 -0.18 1.63 1.65 0.95 0.95 96 -0.16 2.09 0.93 120 -0.19 2.66 0.90 144 -0.20 3.17 0.87 168 -0.18 3.55 0.84 192 -0.20 4.06 0.80 216 -0.16 4.43 0.77 240 -0.19 4.81 0.72 264 -0.28 5.15 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 459 12 UTC = 444 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.11 1.27 1.26 0.93 0.94 48 0.03 0.03 1.56 1.59 0.93 0.93 72 -0.03 -0.02 1.94 1.96 0.91 0.91 96 -0.05 2.37 0.89 120 -0.01 2.90 0.85 144 -0.04 3.34 0.81 168 -0.03 3.71 0.77 192 -0.10 4.00 0.74 216 -0.07 4.24 0.72 240 -0.12 4.48 0.69 264 -0.25 4.74 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 452 12 UTC = 437 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.83 3.95 3.97 48 -0.90 -0.94 4.46 4.52 72 -0.97 -0.99 5.17 5.21 96 -1.08 6.11 120 -1.05 7.20 144 -0.95 8.17 168 -0.89 9.01 192 -0.90 9.65 216 -0.89 10.08 240 -0.89 10.65 264 -1.09 11.36 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 414 12 UTC = 401 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.59 4.43 4.47 48 -0.74 -0.67 5.57 5.65 72 -0.81 -0.75 7.09 7.07 96 -0.82 8.68 120 -0.83 10.69 144 -0.89 12.43 168 -0.94 13.83 192 -0.98 15.24 216 -0.92 15.89 240 -0.89 17.21 264 -1.03 18.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 447 12 UTC = 431 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.59 5.16 5.20 48 -0.74 -0.71 6.63 6.64 72 -0.88 -0.87 8.66 8.56 96 -0.90 11.00 120 -1.02 13.73 144 -1.06 16.30 168 -1.07 18.52 192 -1.16 20.80 216 -1.03 21.94 240 -0.92 23.96 264 -1.07 25.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 445 12 UTC = 428 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.19 -3.27 8.65 9.29 0.97 0.98 48 -3.53 -4.35 11.27 12.65 0.97 0.97 72 -3.93 -5.16 14.81 16.51 0.96 0.96 96 -6.61 21.40 0.94 120 -6.98 24.96 0.92 144 -8.35 32.30 0.86 168 -7.91 36.81 0.80 192 -6.52 39.29 0.78 216 -5.34 43.65 0.74 240 -3.83 48.71 0.66 264 -2.63 52.71 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.71 -6.48 12.30 12.85 0.97 0.97 48 -7.35 -6.52 14.54 15.97 0.98 0.98 72 -6.64 -6.12 18.76 21.84 0.96 0.96 96 -7.69 29.46 0.95 120 -8.19 34.66 0.92 144 -9.88 42.51 0.88 168 -8.74 47.67 0.85 192 -7.67 55.80 0.80 216 -7.21 61.92 0.78 240 -7.92 68.89 0.71 264 -4.51 73.08 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.13 -7.55 14.58 16.57 0.98 0.98 48 -8.65 -8.16 19.40 21.26 0.98 0.98 72 -8.85 -8.74 26.26 29.92 0.97 0.97 96 -10.16 41.47 0.94 120 -10.40 51.60 0.92 144 -11.52 62.53 0.88 168 -9.03 68.58 0.86 192 -8.52 82.23 0.82 216 -9.03 91.22 0.80 240 -10.95 102.55 0.74 264 -4.43 108.96 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.59 1.61 1.43 0.87 0.87 48 -0.72 -0.58 1.73 1.53 0.91 0.91 72 -0.64 -0.50 1.84 1.70 0.91 0.90 96 -0.47 1.81 0.89 120 -0.45 2.16 0.84 144 -0.50 2.39 0.82 168 -0.55 2.63 0.79 192 -0.47 3.08 0.73 216 -0.58 3.30 0.69 240 -0.76 3.45 0.65 264 -0.70 3.57 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.16 0.89 0.91 0.87 0.90 48 0.25 0.23 1.02 1.09 0.92 0.93 72 0.28 0.25 1.21 1.36 0.91 0.90 96 0.24 1.68 0.88 120 0.23 1.96 0.82 144 0.18 2.16 0.80 168 0.26 2.36 0.79 192 0.24 2.65 0.75 216 0.22 2.86 0.73 240 0.08 3.14 0.67 264 0.34 3.25 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.32 0.96 1.12 0.89 0.89 48 -0.37 -0.42 1.22 1.37 0.90 0.89 72 -0.45 -0.44 1.46 1.70 0.90 0.85 96 -0.39 2.02 0.83 120 -0.41 2.25 0.81 144 -0.30 2.58 0.75 168 -0.29 2.83 0.72 192 -0.21 2.89 0.70 216 -0.35 3.20 0.68 240 -0.25 3.31 0.65 264 -0.44 3.48 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.90 4.12 4.02 48 -0.75 -0.95 4.49 4.44 72 -0.72 -0.92 4.83 4.94 96 -0.83 5.50 120 -0.77 6.01 144 -0.76 6.63 168 -0.87 7.22 192 -0.88 7.64 216 -0.78 8.08 240 -0.86 8.42 264 -0.87 8.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.70 4.09 4.08 48 -0.90 -0.85 4.76 4.85 72 -0.98 -0.90 5.59 5.91 96 -1.00 6.67 120 -1.02 7.88 144 -1.01 8.70 168 -1.34 9.67 192 -1.52 10.11 216 -1.35 10.96 240 -1.39 12.16 264 -1.51 12.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.68 5.09 5.21 48 -0.76 -0.81 6.16 6.27 72 -0.98 -0.78 7.60 8.01 96 -0.88 9.93 120 -0.79 12.11 144 -0.89 13.55 168 -1.13 14.95 192 -1.37 15.60 216 -0.97 17.43 240 -0.70 18.75 264 -1.11 19.83 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 40 ---------------------------------------------------------