VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MARCH 2017 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 0.00 0.97 0.97 0.99 0.99 16.6 16.4 48 -0.03 0.01 1.68 1.67 0.98 0.98 25.8 25.3 72 -0.02 0.01 2.49 2.45 0.96 0.96 34.1 33.5 96 0.04 3.45 0.92 42.0 120 0.02 4.76 0.86 51.5 144 0.03 6.18 0.76 60.2 168 0.12 7.44 0.65 66.9 192 0.16 8.56 0.53 72.8 216 0.25 9.35 0.45 76.1 240 0.31 10.01 0.37 79.2 264 0.25 10.72 0.28 82.0 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.46 7.32 7.31 1.00 1.00 9.5 9.4 48 -0.66 -0.56 14.70 14.98 0.99 0.99 17.2 17.4 72 -0.71 -0.67 24.25 23.94 0.97 0.97 25.2 25.2 96 -0.81 34.93 0.94 33.0 120 -1.12 49.02 0.89 41.1 144 -0.93 65.39 0.80 49.3 168 -0.47 81.50 0.69 56.2 192 -0.43 94.69 0.58 61.6 216 0.19 103.71 0.49 65.2 240 0.06 111.04 0.41 68.1 264 -0.86 118.74 0.33 70.4 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -0.95 9.70 9.69 1.00 1.00 7.8 7.8 48 -2.23 -1.87 18.85 19.09 0.99 0.99 13.3 13.5 72 -3.26 -2.92 30.53 30.20 0.98 0.98 19.4 19.5 96 -4.16 44.05 0.95 26.0 120 -5.26 62.67 0.90 33.3 144 -6.12 83.78 0.81 41.0 168 -6.58 104.63 0.71 47.5 192 -7.43 122.13 0.60 52.6 216 -8.24 134.49 0.51 56.3 240 -9.51 145.37 0.42 59.5 264 -10.97 155.81 0.34 61.8 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.02 0.50 0.50 0.99 0.99 48 0.01 0.03 0.91 0.91 0.98 0.98 72 0.00 0.01 1.34 1.35 0.95 0.95 96 -0.02 1.84 0.90 120 -0.02 2.42 0.83 144 -0.04 3.05 0.72 168 -0.08 3.62 0.60 192 -0.10 4.06 0.50 216 -0.13 4.40 0.40 240 -0.16 4.69 0.32 264 -0.17 4.90 0.26 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.12 0.70 0.69 0.98 0.98 48 -0.27 -0.25 1.14 1.15 0.96 0.96 72 -0.36 -0.33 1.61 1.63 0.91 0.91 96 -0.40 2.12 0.84 120 -0.46 2.63 0.76 144 -0.51 3.19 0.64 168 -0.57 3.62 0.53 192 -0.62 3.97 0.44 216 -0.72 4.22 0.36 240 -0.79 4.46 0.29 264 -0.79 4.64 0.24 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 2.29 2.29 48 -0.09 -0.09 4.09 4.13 72 -0.16 -0.17 5.93 5.91 96 -0.18 7.80 120 -0.17 9.88 144 -0.23 12.02 168 -0.33 13.96 192 -0.45 15.45 216 -0.63 16.36 240 -0.73 17.09 264 -0.68 17.82 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.11 3.31 3.30 48 -0.26 -0.21 5.35 5.43 72 -0.33 -0.23 7.66 7.62 96 -0.28 10.07 120 -0.33 13.13 144 -0.33 16.37 168 -0.38 19.22 192 -0.50 21.38 216 -0.73 22.88 240 -0.96 24.23 264 -1.03 25.28 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.26 3.16 3.29 0.97 0.97 25.1 26.1 48 -0.74 -0.61 4.90 5.25 0.93 0.92 33.5 34.1 72 -1.10 -0.96 6.03 6.56 0.89 0.88 39.2 39.9 96 -1.44 7.28 0.85 43.8 120 -1.92 8.04 0.82 47.3 144 -2.44 9.25 0.77 50.4 168 -3.26 10.69 0.70 53.6 192 -3.95 12.03 0.64 56.7 216 -4.80 12.84 0.58 59.2 240 -5.53 13.49 0.55 61.4 264 -5.51 14.02 0.53 63.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.52 4.15 4.24 0.99 0.99 19.1 19.4 48 -2.75 -2.58 6.92 6.94 0.97 0.96 26.6 26.8 72 -4.08 -3.80 9.43 9.31 0.94 0.94 32.1 32.3 96 -4.98 11.49 0.91 36.8 120 -5.73 13.73 0.86 40.9 144 -6.45 15.89 0.81 44.6 168 -7.50 18.17 0.76 47.9 192 -8.34 20.41 0.70 51.1 216 -9.47 23.04 0.63 54.5 240 -10.60 25.30 0.53 57.5 264 -11.50 27.30 0.45 60.1 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.07 0.38 0.38 0.97 0.97 48 -0.08 -0.08 0.59 0.59 0.91 0.92 72 -0.10 -0.09 0.74 0.74 0.86 0.88 96 -0.09 0.85 0.84 120 -0.07 0.96 0.80 144 -0.05 1.06 0.75 168 -0.05 1.16 0.70 192 -0.05 1.27 0.65 216 -0.06 1.36 0.59 240 -0.07 1.47 0.53 264 -0.09 1.55 0.48 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.29 0.42 0.43 0.94 0.94 48 -0.44 -0.47 0.65 0.67 0.86 0.86 72 -0.50 -0.53 0.77 0.79 0.79 0.79 96 -0.56 0.88 0.73 120 -0.57 0.94 0.67 144 -0.58 0.99 0.60 168 -0.59 1.06 0.53 192 -0.60 1.12 0.46 216 -0.59 1.17 0.40 240 -0.59 1.22 0.33 264 -0.61 1.28 0.27 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.12 1.35 1.36 48 -0.21 -0.17 2.04 2.02 72 -0.23 -0.18 2.58 2.55 96 -0.17 2.94 120 -0.15 3.27 144 -0.14 3.60 168 -0.13 3.92 192 -0.15 4.22 216 -0.22 4.48 240 -0.27 4.70 264 -0.31 4.87 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.34 2.85 2.84 48 -0.62 -0.61 4.24 4.24 72 -0.81 -0.83 5.27 5.32 96 -0.96 6.27 120 -1.06 7.16 144 -1.10 7.98 168 -1.03 8.77 192 -0.98 9.55 216 -0.94 10.32 240 -0.93 11.00 264 -0.88 11.66 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.01 0.91 0.88 1.00 1.00 12.7 12.8 48 0.03 0.00 1.79 1.74 0.98 0.98 22.3 22.2 72 0.02 0.00 2.73 2.64 0.96 0.96 30.6 30.5 96 0.00 3.66 0.92 38.2 120 0.03 4.90 0.85 46.2 144 0.03 6.19 0.77 53.4 168 0.03 7.45 0.67 59.5 192 0.07 8.42 0.58 64.3 216 0.04 8.99 0.54 66.2 240 0.07 9.36 0.49 68.2 264 0.12 9.87 0.43 70.0 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.22 1.05 7.71 7.62 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.7 48 1.77 1.57 15.75 15.68 0.99 0.99 17.7 17.6 72 2.14 2.04 24.90 24.58 0.97 0.97 25.2 24.9 96 2.52 35.72 0.93 32.3 120 3.29 48.78 0.87 40.1 144 3.87 61.99 0.79 47.1 168 4.12 76.51 0.68 53.8 192 4.43 88.84 0.57 59.3 216 4.39 97.54 0.50 62.7 240 4.26 104.27 0.42 65.3 264 4.54 110.94 0.34 67.1 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.50 0.31 10.16 10.01 1.00 1.00 8.5 8.5 48 0.09 -0.10 20.57 20.36 0.99 0.99 15.1 15.0 72 -0.61 -0.54 33.09 32.67 0.97 0.97 21.8 21.5 96 -0.89 48.39 0.94 28.5 120 -0.82 66.65 0.88 35.9 144 -0.66 85.15 0.80 43.0 168 -0.69 106.21 0.69 49.8 192 -0.44 123.42 0.57 55.1 216 -0.58 135.77 0.49 58.7 240 -0.98 146.30 0.41 61.6 264 -1.08 156.37 0.32 63.3 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.05 0.48 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 0.06 0.06 0.92 0.91 0.97 0.97 72 0.07 0.08 1.36 1.35 0.93 0.93 96 0.09 1.84 0.87 120 0.10 2.37 0.78 144 0.11 2.85 0.68 168 0.11 3.32 0.57 192 0.11 3.70 0.46 216 0.12 3.97 0.37 240 0.09 4.25 0.29 264 0.08 4.41 0.23 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.16 0.62 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.28 -0.28 1.11 1.10 0.95 0.95 72 -0.39 -0.37 1.58 1.55 0.89 0.90 96 -0.45 2.04 0.83 120 -0.52 2.53 0.73 144 -0.57 2.96 0.63 168 -0.59 3.38 0.52 192 -0.62 3.69 0.44 216 -0.65 3.88 0.38 240 -0.68 4.04 0.32 264 -0.70 4.13 0.29 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.13 2.12 2.13 48 -0.22 -0.23 3.89 3.90 72 -0.26 -0.28 5.59 5.53 96 -0.28 7.25 120 -0.31 9.12 144 -0.36 10.92 168 -0.45 12.66 192 -0.47 14.14 216 -0.48 15.09 240 -0.53 15.88 264 -0.52 16.54 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.11 3.14 3.12 48 -0.21 -0.21 5.51 5.44 72 -0.27 -0.25 7.94 7.83 96 -0.28 10.52 120 -0.30 13.43 144 -0.40 16.49 168 -0.41 19.37 192 -0.45 21.52 216 -0.53 23.30 240 -0.54 24.84 264 -0.61 25.75 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.37 -3.35 9.86 9.32 0.99 0.99 48 -6.50 -5.59 14.58 13.74 0.98 0.99 72 -5.40 -5.60 19.27 18.13 0.97 0.98 96 -4.26 25.04 0.95 120 -4.22 34.41 0.91 144 -6.17 44.69 0.85 168 -7.77 54.88 0.76 192 -15.16 65.76 0.73 216 -21.70 71.47 0.73 240 -21.43 73.81 0.69 264 -20.51 76.11 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.40 -6.35 12.08 11.92 0.99 0.99 48 -8.05 -8.07 19.03 18.62 0.99 0.99 72 -5.40 -7.32 26.79 26.15 0.98 0.98 96 -4.82 36.24 0.96 120 -6.28 49.48 0.94 144 -9.66 65.69 0.88 168 -6.95 78.93 0.82 192 -10.44 97.12 0.78 216 -16.94 107.71 0.78 240 -20.30 114.31 0.75 264 -24.59 121.40 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.87 -8.67 16.13 15.79 0.99 0.99 48 -12.21 -11.79 26.00 25.20 0.99 0.99 72 -10.88 -12.23 36.84 35.86 0.98 0.98 96 -10.48 49.22 0.96 120 -13.70 70.79 0.92 144 -16.82 93.58 0.85 168 -10.66 111.31 0.82 192 -12.46 134.10 0.80 216 -17.15 150.77 0.77 240 -23.32 162.11 0.74 264 -29.39 173.74 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.47 1.58 1.82 0.94 0.95 48 -0.01 -0.33 1.79 2.09 0.96 0.96 72 0.20 -0.17 2.20 2.45 0.95 0.95 96 -0.09 2.97 0.92 120 -0.04 3.74 0.90 144 -0.06 4.59 0.83 168 0.25 5.42 0.79 192 0.61 6.23 0.76 216 0.77 6.96 0.71 240 0.47 7.42 0.67 264 -0.05 7.35 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.05 0.96 0.91 0.96 0.97 48 -0.06 -0.06 1.23 1.20 0.96 0.96 72 -0.02 -0.07 1.56 1.58 0.96 0.95 96 -0.04 2.01 0.93 120 -0.14 2.70 0.89 144 -0.26 3.59 0.79 168 -0.02 4.09 0.75 192 0.18 4.50 0.76 216 0.22 4.99 0.72 240 -0.02 5.34 0.70 264 -0.27 5.59 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 91 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.11 1.06 1.11 0.94 0.94 48 -0.08 0.01 1.32 1.36 0.94 0.94 72 -0.17 -0.06 1.62 1.70 0.93 0.92 96 -0.14 2.08 0.89 120 -0.11 2.58 0.84 144 0.11 3.12 0.75 168 0.07 3.41 0.74 192 0.09 3.84 0.70 216 0.27 4.02 0.69 240 0.45 4.27 0.68 264 0.64 4.47 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -1.01 4.14 4.17 48 -0.62 -1.12 4.61 4.70 72 -0.79 -1.20 5.27 5.55 96 -1.28 6.64 120 -1.36 8.00 144 -1.27 9.71 168 -1.20 11.14 192 -1.22 12.15 216 -1.27 12.51 240 -1.11 13.13 264 -1.26 12.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.51 4.49 4.48 48 -0.72 -0.68 5.49 5.60 72 -0.89 -0.92 6.84 7.01 96 -0.95 8.76 120 -0.94 10.62 144 -0.74 12.90 168 -0.47 14.90 192 -0.46 16.89 216 -0.62 17.63 240 -0.69 18.26 264 -0.47 19.03 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.84 5.91 5.73 48 -0.98 -1.19 7.59 7.62 72 -1.10 -1.32 9.83 9.73 96 -1.23 12.19 120 -1.09 15.77 144 -0.59 19.41 168 0.00 22.91 192 0.30 25.81 216 0.19 27.34 240 0.06 27.80 264 0.60 28.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.99 -4.81 9.29 9.68 0.98 0.98 48 -5.84 -7.80 13.37 14.74 0.98 0.98 72 -7.80 -8.79 20.91 21.39 0.96 0.96 96 -10.31 28.95 0.94 120 -14.26 36.87 0.91 144 -17.43 49.07 0.84 168 -23.11 61.17 0.78 192 -20.70 75.34 0.71 216 -19.79 82.73 0.70 240 -20.14 87.60 0.65 264 -16.17 91.24 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.68 -8.70 14.01 13.37 0.99 0.99 48 -11.59 -12.46 21.64 21.55 0.98 0.98 72 -14.71 -14.64 33.54 31.31 0.97 0.97 96 -18.30 45.24 0.95 120 -24.41 61.18 0.91 144 -29.58 78.20 0.86 168 -42.27 97.06 0.79 192 -46.02 119.83 0.71 216 -45.98 134.48 0.68 240 -43.85 145.98 0.62 264 -37.65 149.05 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.13 -9.79 16.92 16.73 0.99 0.99 48 -13.38 -13.73 26.53 26.51 0.98 0.99 72 -18.35 -17.14 41.66 39.65 0.97 0.97 96 -22.34 59.50 0.95 120 -30.49 81.69 0.92 144 -39.54 104.95 0.88 168 -56.13 130.40 0.82 192 -65.78 162.12 0.73 216 -68.37 183.97 0.70 240 -61.09 201.03 0.64 264 -55.29 205.63 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.15 1.39 1.24 0.91 0.90 48 -0.65 -0.27 1.65 1.45 0.92 0.92 72 -0.76 -0.37 2.00 1.84 0.90 0.90 96 -0.50 2.21 0.88 120 -0.54 2.76 0.82 144 -0.68 3.36 0.77 168 -1.07 3.84 0.71 192 -1.56 4.47 0.63 216 -1.78 4.90 0.58 240 -1.64 5.16 0.54 264 -1.46 5.12 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.18 0.87 0.83 0.95 0.95 48 -0.19 -0.19 1.20 1.15 0.94 0.95 72 -0.30 -0.27 1.64 1.61 0.92 0.92 96 -0.40 2.18 0.90 120 -0.52 2.81 0.84 144 -0.68 3.25 0.82 168 -1.06 3.98 0.73 192 -1.39 4.69 0.65 216 -1.43 5.09 0.61 240 -1.20 5.44 0.57 264 -1.11 5.53 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.26 1.13 1.08 0.93 0.93 48 0.16 0.19 1.42 1.33 0.93 0.94 72 0.22 0.21 1.85 1.83 0.89 0.88 96 0.23 2.31 0.85 120 0.25 2.84 0.77 144 0.12 3.29 0.70 168 0.27 3.87 0.61 192 0.20 4.10 0.58 216 -0.03 4.39 0.50 240 -0.15 4.53 0.49 264 -0.20 4.55 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.48 4.16 4.05 48 -0.91 -0.58 4.76 4.64 72 -1.01 -0.62 5.72 5.55 96 -0.66 6.57 120 -0.60 7.80 144 -0.51 9.08 168 -0.56 10.21 192 -1.03 11.39 216 -1.18 11.88 240 -0.89 12.12 264 -1.12 12.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.52 4.62 4.36 48 -0.36 -0.54 6.00 5.56 72 -0.47 -0.49 8.08 7.49 96 -0.51 9.88 120 -0.52 12.86 144 -0.86 14.88 168 -0.84 17.31 192 -1.19 19.81 216 -2.12 20.88 240 -1.89 21.60 264 -1.77 22.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.62 5.15 4.95 48 -0.31 -0.42 6.91 6.70 72 -0.35 -0.55 9.70 9.15 96 -0.15 12.26 120 -0.39 16.28 144 -1.00 20.28 168 -0.92 23.49 192 -1.53 27.48 216 -2.15 29.48 240 -2.31 31.36 264 -2.79 31.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.56 10.75 10.01 0.96 0.95 48 -0.89 -0.89 12.80 11.93 0.97 0.96 72 -0.90 -0.72 15.80 15.00 0.95 0.95 96 -0.92 19.24 0.93 120 -2.16 23.96 0.92 144 -3.24 30.61 0.88 168 -2.91 34.64 0.85 192 -3.11 40.05 0.82 216 -3.67 49.47 0.76 240 -8.82 57.07 0.69 264 -14.44 63.07 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 125 12 UTC = 122 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.20 -1.25 12.69 13.19 0.97 0.97 48 -1.22 -0.20 16.02 16.82 0.97 0.97 72 -0.74 1.23 21.22 22.19 0.96 0.96 96 1.62 28.76 0.95 120 0.42 36.27 0.92 144 -0.53 46.84 0.87 168 0.45 55.92 0.82 192 0.97 64.21 0.78 216 0.34 75.61 0.71 240 -4.13 83.13 0.67 264 -10.35 89.83 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.30 -4.06 21.36 21.00 0.96 0.96 48 -4.57 -2.37 24.82 25.78 0.97 0.97 72 -4.61 -1.21 31.01 32.45 0.96 0.96 96 -0.89 40.80 0.94 120 -2.25 50.09 0.91 144 -4.80 61.98 0.87 168 -4.12 74.66 0.82 192 -2.58 88.06 0.77 216 -4.16 104.96 0.70 240 -9.97 114.31 0.67 264 -16.83 122.10 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 134 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.51 1.86 1.90 0.87 0.88 48 -0.37 -0.46 2.10 2.18 0.90 0.90 72 -0.31 -0.40 2.26 2.38 0.90 0.90 96 -0.31 2.50 0.89 120 -0.26 2.72 0.86 144 -0.16 3.10 0.81 168 0.00 3.61 0.74 192 0.04 4.01 0.70 216 0.06 4.34 0.68 240 0.04 4.64 0.65 264 -0.07 4.78 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 144 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.03 1.09 1.06 0.92 0.92 48 0.00 0.06 1.28 1.27 0.93 0.93 72 0.04 0.14 1.52 1.56 0.92 0.92 96 0.15 1.84 0.90 120 0.13 2.10 0.87 144 0.08 2.57 0.80 168 0.06 3.03 0.75 192 0.04 3.49 0.70 216 -0.03 3.95 0.63 240 0.00 4.21 0.60 264 -0.03 4.37 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 161 12 UTC = 158 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 0.01 1.40 1.37 0.90 0.90 48 -0.16 -0.08 1.64 1.66 0.91 0.90 72 -0.20 -0.11 1.95 1.98 0.89 0.89 96 -0.15 2.28 0.86 120 -0.17 2.50 0.83 144 -0.23 2.93 0.79 168 -0.29 3.28 0.74 192 -0.26 3.54 0.70 216 -0.29 3.86 0.66 240 -0.39 4.03 0.65 264 -0.38 4.17 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 158 12 UTC = 155 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.75 3.75 3.61 48 -0.76 -0.76 4.16 4.05 72 -0.84 -0.86 4.65 4.56 96 -0.88 5.03 120 -0.99 5.48 144 -1.12 6.14 168 -1.11 6.55 192 -1.10 7.39 216 -1.23 8.08 240 -0.91 8.78 264 -0.75 9.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 143 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.25 4.49 4.56 48 -0.67 -0.31 5.44 5.50 72 -0.76 -0.40 6.49 6.47 96 -0.49 7.58 120 -0.47 8.52 144 -0.44 9.96 168 -0.38 11.10 192 -0.38 12.16 216 -0.27 13.40 240 -0.12 13.91 264 0.05 14.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.81 5.66 5.61 48 -1.09 -1.20 6.92 7.11 72 -1.27 -1.29 8.43 8.51 96 -1.51 9.95 120 -1.41 11.38 144 -1.16 13.46 168 -1.16 15.73 192 -1.05 17.62 216 -0.65 19.63 240 -0.68 20.38 264 -0.81 21.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 155 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.66 -3.49 6.75 7.29 0.96 0.97 48 -1.96 -3.01 8.11 9.82 0.96 0.96 72 -1.81 -2.31 11.52 13.53 0.94 0.96 96 -1.74 18.47 0.89 120 -1.39 22.09 0.80 144 -0.16 29.58 0.74 168 -0.72 33.95 0.64 192 -3.85 40.85 0.66 216 -0.11 39.18 0.63 240 -2.03 45.68 0.58 264 -5.67 46.01 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.66 -7.40 10.62 11.19 0.96 0.97 48 -6.23 -6.78 12.04 14.17 0.96 0.95 72 -6.71 -5.91 15.77 19.82 0.95 0.96 96 -6.06 27.20 0.90 120 -6.90 37.48 0.79 144 -3.79 50.62 0.65 168 -5.72 53.09 0.67 192 -10.33 61.48 0.72 216 -4.98 59.47 0.67 240 -9.31 71.06 0.61 264 -12.66 68.32 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.34 -7.91 13.48 14.02 0.97 0.98 48 -9.06 -8.97 17.11 18.99 0.97 0.96 72 -11.74 -9.71 22.90 28.34 0.96 0.96 96 -13.02 36.95 0.91 120 -17.20 54.00 0.81 144 -14.67 73.65 0.72 168 -20.11 83.39 0.69 192 -25.38 90.68 0.69 216 -20.17 87.38 0.69 240 -21.76 99.95 0.70 264 -29.04 102.91 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.53 1.30 1.34 0.79 0.79 48 -0.52 -0.51 1.43 1.50 0.86 0.86 72 -0.51 -0.43 1.51 1.64 0.85 0.84 96 -0.43 1.79 0.81 120 -0.43 2.14 0.76 144 -0.25 2.75 0.67 168 -0.32 2.59 0.68 192 -0.49 3.00 0.71 216 -0.35 3.59 0.57 240 -0.41 3.78 0.62 264 -0.49 3.86 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.14 0.86 0.89 0.84 0.83 48 0.15 0.13 0.93 0.99 0.87 0.82 72 0.10 0.15 1.07 1.14 0.86 0.82 96 0.08 1.33 0.84 120 -0.02 1.75 0.72 144 -0.02 2.03 0.69 168 -0.04 2.39 0.66 192 -0.22 2.65 0.55 216 -0.06 2.53 0.62 240 -0.12 2.85 0.64 264 -0.18 2.93 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.05 0.80 0.90 0.89 0.88 48 -0.24 -0.19 1.02 1.07 0.88 0.88 72 -0.37 -0.32 1.24 1.37 0.84 0.86 96 -0.43 1.64 0.81 120 -0.55 1.92 0.73 144 -0.75 2.17 0.63 168 -0.81 2.49 0.54 192 -0.79 2.66 0.59 216 -1.03 2.63 0.55 240 -0.95 3.06 0.49 264 -0.91 3.10 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.92 3.71 4.06 48 -0.79 -1.03 4.32 4.62 72 -0.93 -1.02 5.04 5.34 96 -0.96 6.01 120 -1.07 6.62 144 -0.76 7.92 168 -0.88 7.89 192 -0.86 8.70 216 -1.10 8.57 240 -0.67 10.14 264 -0.67 10.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.91 3.96 4.21 48 -1.11 -1.10 4.66 5.15 72 -1.10 -1.20 5.66 6.14 96 -1.10 7.01 120 -1.44 8.30 144 -1.28 10.39 168 -1.13 11.04 192 -1.06 12.94 216 -1.39 12.52 240 -0.85 14.31 264 -0.74 15.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.82 4.99 5.25 48 -0.84 -0.84 6.01 6.47 72 -0.88 -0.94 7.71 8.45 96 -1.39 9.45 120 -1.69 11.09 144 -1.78 14.57 168 -1.24 17.44 192 -1.14 20.52 216 -2.24 20.61 240 -1.05 22.03 264 -0.74 23.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.91 -2.92 9.41 10.20 0.65 0.65 48 -3.40 -3.65 9.77 10.85 0.76 0.74 72 -4.18 -4.60 10.45 11.55 0.76 0.75 96 -5.86 12.06 0.73 120 -6.70 12.74 0.72 144 -7.05 13.65 0.70 168 -7.44 14.91 0.71 192 -7.88 16.11 0.67 216 -8.67 17.22 0.63 240 -9.33 17.66 0.60 264 -9.49 18.03 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.82 -4.49 11.89 12.35 0.59 0.54 48 -5.02 -4.95 12.35 13.22 0.72 0.67 72 -5.73 -5.60 13.07 13.97 0.74 0.71 96 -6.75 14.39 0.72 120 -7.63 14.90 0.74 144 -8.19 15.74 0.74 168 -8.82 16.98 0.74 192 -9.35 18.20 0.70 216 -10.32 19.61 0.67 240 -11.05 20.35 0.64 264 -11.42 21.00 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.17 -7.26 14.89 15.35 0.64 0.62 48 -8.92 -9.07 16.45 17.20 0.75 0.74 72 -10.01 -10.22 18.02 18.82 0.76 0.75 96 -11.37 20.15 0.75 120 -12.21 21.42 0.75 144 -12.83 22.72 0.74 168 -13.69 24.10 0.73 192 -14.62 25.38 0.72 216 -15.65 27.49 0.68 240 -16.47 29.41 0.64 264 -17.43 31.35 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.36 1.07 1.09 0.49 0.46 48 -0.43 -0.38 1.13 1.13 0.60 0.58 72 -0.44 -0.37 1.15 1.15 0.64 0.62 96 -0.36 1.16 0.62 120 -0.33 1.18 0.63 144 -0.31 1.21 0.64 168 -0.33 1.25 0.64 192 -0.33 1.32 0.60 216 -0.34 1.38 0.56 240 -0.37 1.43 0.53 264 -0.42 1.48 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.14 0.76 0.80 0.59 0.56 48 0.14 0.15 0.81 0.85 0.65 0.65 72 0.16 0.17 0.87 0.90 0.66 0.67 96 0.20 0.95 0.66 120 0.18 1.00 0.65 144 0.15 1.05 0.63 168 0.12 1.11 0.61 192 0.08 1.16 0.59 216 0.06 1.24 0.54 240 0.08 1.31 0.49 264 0.07 1.35 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.44 0.69 0.75 0.60 0.61 48 -0.53 -0.58 0.84 0.89 0.65 0.67 72 -0.55 -0.60 0.90 0.95 0.66 0.68 96 -0.59 1.00 0.65 120 -0.59 1.04 0.65 144 -0.60 1.09 0.62 168 -0.60 1.16 0.58 192 -0.63 1.20 0.54 216 -0.63 1.21 0.56 240 -0.64 1.26 0.54 264 -0.64 1.28 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.48 3.33 3.43 48 -0.44 -0.38 3.64 3.72 72 -0.39 -0.31 3.95 3.98 96 -0.27 4.21 120 -0.31 4.36 144 -0.28 4.55 168 -0.28 4.81 192 -0.24 5.03 216 -0.26 5.33 240 -0.23 5.35 264 -0.12 5.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.92 3.65 3.72 48 -1.03 -1.05 4.02 4.03 72 -1.01 -1.08 4.29 4.34 96 -1.05 4.67 120 -0.98 5.04 144 -0.94 5.44 168 -0.91 5.82 192 -0.96 6.13 216 -0.96 6.45 240 -0.99 6.78 264 -1.04 7.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -0.72 4.56 4.62 48 -1.13 -1.02 5.21 5.22 72 -1.24 -1.21 5.82 5.89 96 -1.32 6.46 120 -1.41 6.98 144 -1.41 7.59 168 -1.42 8.15 192 -1.38 8.70 216 -1.44 9.09 240 -1.59 9.66 264 -1.56 10.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.48 -2.39 10.33 10.36 0.98 0.98 48 -3.33 -3.48 13.74 13.83 0.98 0.98 72 -2.95 -3.27 18.84 18.61 0.97 0.97 96 -2.98 25.14 0.95 120 -3.64 33.51 0.92 144 -4.97 43.08 0.88 168 -5.56 52.59 0.82 192 -6.96 62.79 0.76 216 -6.69 70.44 0.73 240 -8.20 76.86 0.67 264 -9.87 82.68 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.30 -3.99 13.08 13.15 0.98 0.98 48 -4.95 -4.83 18.64 18.91 0.98 0.98 72 -4.26 -4.22 26.68 26.60 0.97 0.97 96 -3.61 36.85 0.96 120 -4.62 50.39 0.92 144 -6.35 65.61 0.87 168 -6.68 80.23 0.82 192 -7.85 95.96 0.77 216 -8.23 108.47 0.73 240 -9.72 117.53 0.68 264 -12.58 124.78 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 419 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.23 -6.43 19.53 19.40 0.98 0.98 48 -8.37 -7.66 25.91 26.25 0.98 0.98 72 -8.54 -7.77 35.83 35.89 0.97 0.97 96 -7.74 48.53 0.96 120 -9.57 66.56 0.92 144 -12.63 86.74 0.87 168 -12.68 105.91 0.82 192 -14.07 126.69 0.77 216 -15.40 143.99 0.73 240 -18.01 157.01 0.68 264 -22.09 166.27 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 419 12 UTC = 405 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.34 1.61 1.65 0.92 0.92 48 -0.33 -0.33 1.83 1.89 0.94 0.94 72 -0.29 -0.29 2.09 2.18 0.93 0.93 96 -0.26 2.49 0.91 120 -0.23 2.98 0.88 144 -0.21 3.60 0.83 168 -0.14 4.22 0.78 192 -0.09 4.83 0.73 216 -0.11 5.29 0.69 240 -0.13 5.66 0.65 264 -0.25 5.74 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 428 12 UTC = 412 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.07 1.00 0.97 0.95 0.95 48 -0.08 -0.05 1.25 1.24 0.95 0.96 72 -0.07 -0.04 1.58 1.61 0.94 0.94 96 -0.04 2.00 0.92 120 -0.05 2.52 0.88 144 -0.13 3.14 0.82 168 -0.12 3.70 0.76 192 -0.15 4.20 0.72 216 -0.20 4.63 0.67 240 -0.21 4.95 0.63 264 -0.25 5.11 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 458 12 UTC = 444 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.08 1.26 1.23 0.93 0.93 48 -0.05 -0.01 1.53 1.51 0.93 0.93 72 -0.10 -0.05 1.88 1.90 0.92 0.91 96 -0.12 2.28 0.88 120 -0.14 2.71 0.84 144 -0.16 3.23 0.78 168 -0.20 3.64 0.73 192 -0.18 4.00 0.70 216 -0.22 4.27 0.67 240 -0.29 4.45 0.65 264 -0.31 4.61 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 454 12 UTC = 438 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.76 3.91 3.85 48 -0.80 -0.83 4.40 4.37 72 -0.93 -0.91 5.08 5.12 96 -0.98 5.96 120 -0.99 6.94 144 -1.00 8.07 168 -1.03 8.96 192 -1.09 9.92 216 -1.22 10.41 240 -1.08 10.90 264 -1.04 11.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 416 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.53 4.41 4.43 48 -0.68 -0.61 5.49 5.50 72 -0.78 -0.73 6.94 6.90 96 -0.78 8.53 120 -0.77 10.39 144 -0.78 12.39 168 -0.68 14.15 192 -0.78 15.75 216 -0.96 16.64 240 -1.01 17.25 264 -0.87 17.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 446 12 UTC = 429 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.71 5.32 5.26 48 -0.80 -0.93 6.78 6.87 72 -0.88 -1.04 8.82 8.76 96 -1.06 10.96 120 -1.08 13.74 144 -0.98 16.78 168 -0.80 19.56 192 -0.85 22.10 216 -0.85 23.83 240 -1.08 24.70 264 -1.14 25.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 444 12 UTC = 427 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.49 -2.37 9.49 8.91 0.97 0.97 48 -2.11 -2.71 11.66 11.97 0.97 0.97 72 -2.66 -2.91 14.91 16.03 0.95 0.95 96 -4.41 22.50 0.91 120 -5.96 29.27 0.87 144 -5.71 34.95 0.81 168 -6.54 41.75 0.73 192 -7.03 45.55 0.68 216 -7.49 48.83 0.62 240 -8.78 51.67 0.62 264 -11.53 53.69 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.13 -5.67 12.59 12.05 0.97 0.97 48 -6.44 -5.24 15.33 16.27 0.97 0.97 72 -6.66 -4.79 20.12 22.12 0.95 0.95 96 -5.34 30.98 0.93 120 -7.14 41.28 0.88 144 -6.14 51.26 0.83 168 -8.78 59.58 0.78 192 -9.55 67.06 0.73 216 -10.79 70.20 0.65 240 -12.36 81.24 0.64 264 -14.03 80.58 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.37 -6.48 15.83 14.61 0.98 0.98 48 -9.07 -6.87 20.31 20.78 0.97 0.98 72 -10.54 -7.17 27.38 29.64 0.96 0.96 96 -7.66 41.20 0.95 120 -10.48 56.31 0.91 144 -8.90 71.43 0.85 168 -13.37 85.99 0.80 192 -13.49 98.05 0.77 216 -16.86 102.55 0.71 240 -17.02 118.63 0.69 264 -18.96 121.20 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.72 1.66 1.50 0.86 0.89 48 -0.79 -0.72 1.77 1.63 0.89 0.91 72 -0.72 -0.63 1.87 1.81 0.88 0.89 96 -0.60 2.05 0.86 120 -0.55 2.37 0.82 144 -0.43 2.79 0.73 168 -0.54 3.08 0.72 192 -0.57 3.44 0.69 216 -0.60 3.74 0.63 240 -0.65 4.03 0.61 264 -0.63 4.09 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.16 0.88 0.91 0.89 0.92 48 0.19 0.21 1.05 1.11 0.91 0.93 72 0.19 0.22 1.28 1.37 0.89 0.91 96 0.29 1.67 0.88 120 0.21 2.11 0.83 144 0.25 2.38 0.80 168 0.16 2.75 0.75 192 0.11 3.11 0.71 216 0.07 3.08 0.71 240 0.10 3.60 0.67 264 0.11 3.61 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.17 1.01 1.02 0.90 0.91 48 -0.29 -0.31 1.24 1.29 0.91 0.91 72 -0.37 -0.35 1.51 1.57 0.88 0.89 96 -0.42 1.99 0.85 120 -0.39 2.31 0.79 144 -0.43 2.56 0.72 168 -0.39 2.87 0.69 192 -0.44 3.28 0.67 216 -0.55 3.31 0.66 240 -0.56 3.54 0.63 264 -0.43 3.57 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.69 4.01 4.14 48 -0.66 -0.72 4.44 4.52 72 -0.76 -0.72 4.99 4.95 96 -0.69 5.61 120 -0.67 6.45 144 -0.50 7.59 168 -0.46 7.88 192 -0.56 8.62 216 -0.68 8.86 240 -0.52 9.42 264 -0.43 9.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.90 4.02 4.17 48 -0.85 -1.06 4.71 4.99 72 -0.91 -1.13 5.65 5.83 96 -1.07 6.91 120 -1.35 8.36 144 -1.31 10.14 168 -1.27 11.08 192 -1.49 12.42 216 -1.45 12.73 240 -1.24 13.39 264 -0.98 14.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.66 5.20 5.32 48 -0.66 -0.68 6.24 6.68 72 -0.66 -0.66 7.94 8.35 96 -0.65 10.20 120 -1.15 12.66 144 -1.58 15.54 168 -1.34 17.56 192 -1.28 19.71 216 -1.57 20.92 240 -1.24 22.47 264 -1.29 23.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 ---------------------------------------------------------