VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY APRIL 2017 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.06 0.85 0.87 0.99 0.99 16.9 16.9 48 -0.11 -0.09 1.43 1.45 0.98 0.98 25.5 25.5 72 -0.12 -0.12 2.16 2.15 0.96 0.96 33.9 33.7 96 -0.13 3.11 0.92 42.8 120 -0.16 4.15 0.85 51.4 144 -0.20 5.40 0.74 60.5 168 -0.19 6.70 0.60 68.9 192 -0.19 7.54 0.51 73.7 216 -0.22 8.13 0.44 76.9 240 -0.20 8.76 0.35 80.2 264 -0.17 9.29 0.26 82.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 0.14 6.30 6.36 1.00 1.00 9.9 9.9 48 0.69 0.55 12.80 12.95 0.99 0.99 17.9 18.1 72 1.10 0.83 21.22 21.09 0.97 0.97 26.2 26.2 96 1.28 31.08 0.94 34.4 120 1.58 43.00 0.88 42.7 144 1.74 56.89 0.78 50.9 168 2.03 69.77 0.66 57.9 192 2.05 79.75 0.57 62.5 216 2.04 87.90 0.49 65.7 240 2.89 96.56 0.39 69.2 264 3.71 106.34 0.28 72.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.43 8.69 8.80 1.00 1.00 8.4 8.4 48 -0.69 -0.85 16.96 17.55 0.99 0.99 14.3 14.6 72 -1.04 -1.24 27.75 27.94 0.98 0.97 20.8 20.9 96 -1.80 40.22 0.95 27.6 120 -2.34 55.24 0.90 34.9 144 -2.93 73.83 0.81 42.6 168 -3.10 91.19 0.71 49.2 192 -3.08 106.02 0.62 54.3 216 -2.93 118.33 0.53 57.7 240 -2.22 129.95 0.45 61.0 264 -2.09 143.45 0.33 64.8 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.04 0.47 0.47 0.99 0.99 48 0.05 0.05 0.83 0.84 0.97 0.97 72 0.06 0.06 1.25 1.26 0.94 0.94 96 0.06 1.70 0.89 120 0.06 2.17 0.82 144 0.05 2.70 0.73 168 0.03 3.21 0.61 192 0.01 3.62 0.51 216 0.00 3.91 0.44 240 0.03 4.12 0.37 264 0.03 4.45 0.27 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.15 0.67 0.65 0.98 0.98 48 -0.27 -0.26 1.08 1.08 0.95 0.95 72 -0.35 -0.34 1.52 1.52 0.90 0.90 96 -0.42 1.99 0.83 120 -0.49 2.48 0.74 144 -0.53 2.97 0.62 168 -0.56 3.32 0.51 192 -0.59 3.62 0.43 216 -0.59 3.77 0.37 240 -0.63 3.98 0.30 264 -0.68 4.19 0.23 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.07 2.11 2.12 48 -0.14 -0.16 3.75 3.79 72 -0.19 -0.22 5.42 5.44 96 -0.25 7.18 120 -0.29 8.99 144 -0.32 10.92 168 -0.33 12.62 192 -0.29 13.86 216 -0.27 14.69 240 -0.27 15.60 264 -0.33 16.57 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.09 3.26 3.26 48 -0.25 -0.19 5.30 5.39 72 -0.35 -0.24 7.35 7.47 96 -0.34 9.65 120 -0.44 12.13 144 -0.47 15.02 168 -0.50 17.58 192 -0.43 19.67 216 -0.38 21.33 240 -0.46 22.61 264 -0.54 24.23 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.12 2.96 3.14 0.97 0.96 25.1 25.4 48 -0.03 -0.03 4.20 4.66 0.94 0.92 32.7 32.3 72 -0.19 -0.13 5.25 5.92 0.91 0.87 37.5 37.4 96 -0.29 6.63 0.83 41.2 120 -0.32 7.62 0.78 44.9 144 -0.55 8.55 0.73 48.1 168 -0.99 9.31 0.69 50.5 192 -1.56 10.06 0.66 52.5 216 -2.15 11.03 0.61 54.4 240 -2.68 11.58 0.58 56.2 264 -3.26 11.84 0.55 58.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -1.03 3.87 4.06 0.99 0.99 18.2 18.6 48 -3.48 -3.75 6.80 6.99 0.97 0.97 25.2 25.6 72 -5.56 -5.73 9.63 9.79 0.95 0.94 30.3 30.9 96 -7.60 12.33 0.91 35.4 120 -9.25 14.71 0.88 39.2 144 -10.86 16.96 0.84 42.4 168 -12.21 19.18 0.79 45.8 192 -13.56 21.77 0.72 49.2 216 -14.71 24.12 0.64 52.9 240 -15.69 26.04 0.58 55.6 264 -16.77 27.70 0.52 57.9 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.07 0.37 0.38 0.97 0.97 48 -0.11 -0.10 0.57 0.58 0.92 0.93 72 -0.13 -0.13 0.70 0.71 0.88 0.89 96 -0.15 0.81 0.86 120 -0.16 0.90 0.82 144 -0.18 0.99 0.79 168 -0.20 1.09 0.74 192 -0.23 1.23 0.67 216 -0.25 1.32 0.63 240 -0.26 1.39 0.58 264 -0.25 1.48 0.53 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.31 0.42 0.44 0.95 0.94 48 -0.47 -0.51 0.64 0.68 0.88 0.88 72 -0.57 -0.61 0.79 0.83 0.81 0.81 96 -0.69 0.95 0.73 120 -0.75 1.05 0.66 144 -0.81 1.13 0.61 168 -0.85 1.20 0.54 192 -0.88 1.26 0.48 216 -0.90 1.30 0.42 240 -0.93 1.35 0.37 264 -0.96 1.39 0.34 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.21 1.32 1.32 48 -0.28 -0.27 1.94 1.89 72 -0.34 -0.35 2.37 2.32 96 -0.37 2.69 120 -0.38 3.04 144 -0.35 3.35 168 -0.32 3.61 192 -0.31 3.85 216 -0.31 4.05 240 -0.33 4.25 264 -0.37 4.46 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.24 2.75 2.75 48 -0.41 -0.42 4.07 4.08 72 -0.54 -0.54 5.09 5.11 96 -0.62 6.06 120 -0.68 6.86 144 -0.73 7.55 168 -0.77 8.26 192 -0.76 8.95 216 -0.74 9.71 240 -0.74 10.27 264 -0.76 10.80 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.95 0.93 0.99 1.00 12.6 12.5 48 0.05 0.05 1.91 1.89 0.98 0.98 22.3 22.2 72 0.06 0.06 3.06 2.94 0.95 0.95 31.3 30.6 96 0.05 4.20 0.90 38.9 120 0.05 5.70 0.81 47.2 144 0.10 7.13 0.71 53.9 168 0.16 8.52 0.59 59.7 192 0.25 9.46 0.51 63.7 216 0.35 10.20 0.43 66.8 240 0.34 10.67 0.36 69.3 264 0.37 11.05 0.33 70.5 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.24 7.91 7.77 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.3 48 0.24 0.20 16.88 16.59 0.99 0.99 17.3 17.1 72 0.22 0.23 28.64 27.61 0.96 0.96 25.2 24.9 96 0.23 41.94 0.92 32.8 120 0.29 58.02 0.84 40.8 144 0.36 74.07 0.74 47.8 168 0.51 91.13 0.61 54.5 192 0.99 103.84 0.49 59.6 216 1.90 113.23 0.39 63.1 240 2.27 119.87 0.31 65.6 264 2.46 125.35 0.25 67.2 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.28 10.37 10.37 1.00 1.00 7.9 7.9 48 -0.83 -1.02 21.56 21.45 0.99 0.99 14.1 14.1 72 -1.65 -1.78 36.98 35.83 0.97 0.97 20.9 20.6 96 -2.63 55.42 0.93 28.0 120 -3.07 78.02 0.85 35.6 144 -3.57 99.91 0.76 42.5 168 -3.35 123.62 0.63 49.2 192 -3.04 141.91 0.51 54.6 216 -2.89 155.15 0.41 58.2 240 -2.90 164.14 0.34 60.3 264 -3.08 173.64 0.26 62.5 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 0.51 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 0.02 0.01 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 72 0.01 0.01 1.47 1.43 0.93 0.93 96 0.00 2.00 0.86 120 -0.01 2.61 0.77 144 -0.03 3.18 0.66 168 -0.03 3.72 0.53 192 -0.03 4.19 0.40 216 -0.05 4.47 0.32 240 -0.05 4.65 0.25 264 -0.05 4.85 0.20 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.11 0.60 0.60 0.98 0.98 48 -0.20 -0.20 1.07 1.07 0.95 0.95 72 -0.28 -0.29 1.57 1.54 0.89 0.89 96 -0.36 2.06 0.81 120 -0.40 2.51 0.71 144 -0.43 2.98 0.59 168 -0.46 3.42 0.46 192 -0.50 3.72 0.37 216 -0.52 3.88 0.31 240 -0.58 4.01 0.26 264 -0.60 4.10 0.23 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 2.25 2.22 48 -0.13 -0.15 4.20 4.13 72 -0.19 -0.21 6.14 6.04 96 -0.28 8.07 120 -0.33 10.24 144 -0.39 12.19 168 -0.44 14.04 192 -0.44 15.60 216 -0.51 16.51 240 -0.50 17.35 264 -0.53 17.80 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.10 3.19 3.19 48 -0.15 -0.18 5.58 5.55 72 -0.20 -0.23 8.21 8.03 96 -0.31 11.04 120 -0.32 14.33 144 -0.31 17.46 168 -0.35 20.40 192 -0.45 22.80 216 -0.44 24.27 240 -0.39 25.59 264 -0.37 26.59 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.53 -1.78 7.55 7.78 0.99 0.98 48 -2.99 -2.28 10.53 11.56 0.99 0.98 72 -1.36 -1.79 14.76 16.67 0.97 0.97 96 -1.14 22.05 0.93 120 -3.60 30.51 0.89 144 -8.45 40.34 0.81 168 -7.15 49.48 0.72 192 -4.67 54.97 0.67 216 -6.87 57.44 0.66 240 -11.48 64.66 0.57 264 -13.08 71.66 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.52 -2.47 9.39 9.76 0.99 0.99 48 -1.60 -1.57 14.12 15.14 0.99 0.99 72 1.21 -0.09 20.53 22.13 0.97 0.97 96 2.10 29.32 0.92 120 -0.30 39.31 0.89 144 -8.01 52.84 0.84 168 -8.05 65.20 0.79 192 -4.09 74.76 0.74 216 -4.93 81.69 0.71 240 -10.27 96.54 0.56 264 -13.01 110.29 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.49 -3.77 14.75 14.24 0.99 0.99 48 -3.49 -3.02 22.20 22.95 0.99 0.99 72 -0.64 -1.74 32.10 32.88 0.97 0.97 96 -0.24 43.25 0.93 120 -3.23 57.76 0.90 144 -14.06 76.71 0.85 168 -14.80 97.95 0.79 192 -6.81 114.98 0.73 216 -6.04 126.75 0.72 240 -11.31 148.30 0.57 264 -14.59 166.46 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.31 1.46 1.64 0.93 0.93 48 0.06 -0.20 1.68 1.88 0.95 0.95 72 0.18 -0.07 1.98 2.22 0.92 0.92 96 0.06 2.55 0.87 120 0.06 2.97 0.85 144 -0.04 3.52 0.79 168 0.00 4.26 0.73 192 0.14 4.65 0.72 216 0.26 5.08 0.67 240 0.10 5.65 0.59 264 -0.04 6.10 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.03 0.88 0.91 0.95 0.95 48 0.05 0.08 1.12 1.14 0.96 0.96 72 0.08 0.11 1.44 1.48 0.94 0.94 96 0.14 1.84 0.89 120 0.08 2.21 0.84 144 -0.14 2.61 0.80 168 -0.26 3.29 0.75 192 -0.12 3.76 0.69 216 -0.05 4.05 0.67 240 -0.09 4.50 0.57 264 -0.12 4.99 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.01 1.06 1.09 0.93 0.92 48 0.01 -0.09 1.35 1.42 0.92 0.91 72 -0.07 -0.12 1.64 1.70 0.87 0.86 96 -0.19 1.93 0.82 120 -0.21 2.21 0.78 144 -0.04 2.54 0.73 168 0.04 2.99 0.65 192 0.12 3.23 0.61 216 0.18 3.34 0.59 240 0.26 3.39 0.59 264 0.27 3.50 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.97 4.01 4.23 48 -0.51 -1.02 4.45 4.80 72 -0.60 -0.99 5.24 5.66 96 -1.11 6.56 120 -1.23 7.67 144 -1.10 9.12 168 -1.05 10.59 192 -1.13 11.05 216 -1.00 11.83 240 -0.78 12.40 264 -0.88 13.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.68 4.38 4.44 48 -0.68 -0.84 5.37 5.48 72 -0.79 -0.98 6.78 6.86 96 -1.11 8.13 120 -0.98 9.69 144 -0.92 11.25 168 -0.81 13.39 192 -0.76 14.57 216 -0.52 15.44 240 -0.32 16.99 264 0.22 18.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.91 6.19 6.21 48 -0.94 -1.28 7.99 8.21 72 -1.06 -1.46 10.07 10.23 96 -1.63 12.38 120 -1.61 14.84 144 -1.28 17.50 168 -0.93 20.73 192 -0.72 23.32 216 -0.52 24.63 240 -0.06 27.08 264 0.71 29.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.48 -5.70 9.72 9.28 0.98 0.98 48 -7.07 -7.87 12.48 12.28 0.98 0.98 72 -8.15 -8.99 15.78 15.59 0.97 0.97 96 -7.86 20.56 0.95 120 -7.86 29.13 0.92 144 -6.94 40.18 0.87 168 -12.15 52.65 0.82 192 -17.18 60.76 0.73 216 -14.05 64.32 0.60 240 -15.67 76.85 0.44 264 -23.19 80.97 0.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 56 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.12 -7.39 12.93 12.05 0.98 0.98 48 -10.27 -10.60 17.55 17.45 0.98 0.98 72 -11.92 -12.24 23.73 23.49 0.98 0.98 96 -9.93 29.48 0.96 120 -7.47 43.02 0.94 144 -3.14 62.75 0.88 168 -2.64 78.08 0.84 192 -5.96 89.96 0.73 216 -4.30 99.52 0.64 240 -8.14 116.10 0.50 264 -16.99 131.23 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 55 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.18 -8.56 15.42 15.22 0.99 0.98 48 -11.32 -13.56 21.55 23.07 0.99 0.99 72 -13.14 -14.92 30.14 29.95 0.98 0.98 96 -11.16 37.80 0.97 120 -7.15 55.55 0.95 144 -1.54 79.40 0.90 168 2.16 101.60 0.85 192 0.05 119.84 0.76 216 -1.48 136.70 0.66 240 -8.63 155.71 0.56 264 -15.49 181.62 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 55 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.09 1.35 1.14 0.91 0.91 48 -0.58 -0.18 1.53 1.33 0.93 0.93 72 -0.58 -0.19 1.71 1.55 0.94 0.93 96 -0.15 1.83 0.92 120 0.16 2.18 0.88 144 0.43 3.05 0.82 168 0.84 3.80 0.75 192 1.00 4.41 0.67 216 1.00 4.60 0.64 240 1.04 4.85 0.60 264 0.73 5.19 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.10 0.83 0.84 0.94 0.94 48 -0.08 -0.19 1.03 1.07 0.95 0.95 72 -0.08 -0.19 1.34 1.35 0.93 0.94 96 -0.03 1.70 0.92 120 0.09 2.15 0.89 144 0.27 3.02 0.81 168 0.52 3.61 0.75 192 0.57 4.03 0.65 216 0.47 4.41 0.59 240 0.23 4.61 0.55 264 0.27 5.29 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.33 0.28 1.09 1.03 0.93 0.93 48 0.28 0.25 1.27 1.23 0.93 0.93 72 0.21 0.18 1.53 1.54 0.91 0.91 96 -0.01 1.84 0.88 120 0.01 2.36 0.82 144 -0.13 3.11 0.74 168 -0.10 3.53 0.66 192 -0.11 3.78 0.59 216 -0.14 3.94 0.53 240 -0.13 4.10 0.45 264 -0.09 4.19 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.37 3.84 3.74 48 -0.53 -0.36 4.18 4.04 72 -0.47 -0.30 4.59 4.53 96 -0.15 5.25 120 -0.05 6.28 144 -0.24 7.53 168 -0.11 8.66 192 0.38 9.52 216 0.18 9.98 240 -0.11 10.51 264 0.11 11.16 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.47 3.97 3.93 48 -0.34 -0.55 4.93 5.05 72 -0.19 -0.34 6.00 6.12 96 -0.27 7.56 120 0.06 9.50 144 -0.11 12.50 168 -0.28 14.46 192 -0.08 16.38 216 -0.06 17.09 240 0.25 19.09 264 0.52 20.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.49 4.74 4.53 48 -0.36 -0.57 6.03 5.89 72 -0.17 -0.37 7.58 7.33 96 -0.24 9.49 120 -0.31 12.21 144 -0.23 16.01 168 -0.56 20.02 192 -0.80 22.68 216 -0.16 24.09 240 0.49 27.12 264 0.90 29.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 1.04 10.55 10.35 0.98 0.97 48 -0.78 0.38 13.15 12.60 0.97 0.97 72 -1.37 0.45 17.30 16.63 0.96 0.97 96 -0.07 22.19 0.94 120 -0.29 28.33 0.89 144 2.60 35.51 0.83 168 7.50 42.55 0.77 192 8.81 49.02 0.73 216 8.55 51.88 0.70 240 11.48 57.63 0.59 264 14.44 61.25 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 123 12 UTC = 121 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.22 -0.54 12.41 12.23 0.98 0.98 48 -1.87 -0.25 16.38 16.26 0.98 0.98 72 -1.56 0.60 22.85 21.99 0.97 0.97 96 1.02 30.03 0.95 120 2.21 38.77 0.93 144 4.33 47.73 0.90 168 6.84 57.43 0.86 192 8.46 69.94 0.82 216 10.17 77.69 0.76 240 13.37 83.05 0.73 264 16.45 88.93 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 134 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.52 -3.24 21.48 20.94 0.97 0.97 48 -5.29 -2.12 26.39 26.96 0.97 0.97 72 -4.85 -0.37 34.50 33.74 0.96 0.97 96 0.19 43.08 0.96 120 0.96 55.53 0.93 144 1.38 69.33 0.90 168 0.95 82.88 0.88 192 3.25 99.64 0.84 216 5.64 110.62 0.80 240 8.98 115.78 0.79 264 11.75 126.27 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 128 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.69 1.77 1.91 0.92 0.92 48 -0.50 -0.72 2.00 2.15 0.93 0.93 72 -0.42 -0.67 2.26 2.37 0.93 0.93 96 -0.54 2.67 0.91 120 -0.41 3.07 0.87 144 -0.37 3.53 0.83 168 -0.44 4.00 0.79 192 -0.42 4.50 0.74 216 -0.38 4.90 0.70 240 -0.37 5.18 0.66 264 -0.28 5.35 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 144 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.01 1.03 1.06 0.94 0.94 48 -0.07 0.02 1.24 1.30 0.95 0.95 72 -0.06 0.05 1.56 1.56 0.94 0.94 96 0.05 1.93 0.93 120 0.08 2.40 0.89 144 0.00 2.83 0.86 168 -0.13 3.29 0.83 192 0.00 3.79 0.79 216 0.07 4.06 0.76 240 0.11 4.12 0.73 264 0.05 4.49 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 160 12 UTC = 157 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.03 1.39 1.35 0.91 0.91 48 -0.17 -0.02 1.66 1.64 0.91 0.91 72 -0.17 0.02 1.96 1.92 0.89 0.89 96 0.07 2.29 0.86 120 0.04 2.70 0.81 144 0.02 3.05 0.78 168 -0.11 3.30 0.75 192 -0.31 3.63 0.70 216 -0.35 3.86 0.66 240 -0.31 4.06 0.63 264 -0.32 4.21 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.80 4.00 4.02 48 -0.82 -0.76 4.50 4.50 72 -0.87 -0.80 5.15 5.13 96 -0.87 5.93 120 -0.79 6.89 144 -0.87 7.82 168 -1.11 8.55 192 -0.92 9.55 216 -0.82 10.02 240 -0.85 10.21 264 -1.19 10.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.43 4.49 4.60 48 -0.74 -0.55 5.54 5.62 72 -0.84 -0.62 6.81 6.69 96 -0.69 8.14 120 -0.69 9.73 144 -0.81 11.10 168 -0.96 12.39 192 -1.02 13.97 216 -0.99 14.43 240 -0.84 15.05 264 -1.36 15.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.69 6.26 6.08 48 -0.99 -0.89 7.79 7.73 72 -1.09 -0.76 9.33 9.31 96 -0.86 11.01 120 -0.72 13.27 144 -0.89 15.50 168 -1.06 17.59 192 -1.22 20.12 216 -1.37 20.93 240 -1.44 21.87 264 -1.70 23.09 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 154 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.07 -2.94 6.32 7.09 0.97 0.98 48 -2.33 -2.16 7.74 8.43 0.98 0.99 72 -2.57 -2.36 10.35 11.47 0.97 0.98 96 -2.15 16.85 0.96 120 -1.22 22.30 0.93 144 -1.89 30.35 0.85 168 -2.29 41.27 0.71 192 -5.29 46.09 0.61 216 -6.63 48.43 0.56 240 -3.06 51.80 0.53 264 -3.97 52.40 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.09 -7.20 9.86 10.63 0.97 0.99 48 -6.97 -6.90 12.14 13.24 0.98 0.98 72 -7.80 -6.91 15.75 17.34 0.97 0.97 96 -10.35 26.16 0.94 120 -7.64 32.13 0.92 144 -7.28 39.30 0.83 168 -7.11 54.27 0.73 192 -6.24 65.10 0.58 216 -6.50 66.45 0.63 240 -3.12 69.48 0.50 264 -3.32 70.87 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.29 -5.91 13.06 14.02 0.98 0.98 48 -9.31 -7.23 17.74 18.99 0.98 0.98 72 -11.98 -8.20 23.82 25.33 0.96 0.97 96 -14.69 39.21 0.93 120 -12.62 46.10 0.92 144 -9.42 57.22 0.84 168 -8.32 75.88 0.76 192 -3.43 89.25 0.60 216 -3.32 98.35 0.61 240 -0.07 101.07 0.57 264 -0.43 102.99 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.46 1.09 1.12 0.86 0.84 48 -0.42 -0.48 1.21 1.20 0.88 0.89 72 -0.39 -0.50 1.31 1.31 0.89 0.90 96 -0.55 1.50 0.90 120 -0.41 1.66 0.82 144 -0.35 2.12 0.75 168 -0.23 2.47 0.68 192 0.05 2.90 0.67 216 0.08 3.22 0.58 240 -0.10 3.13 0.55 264 0.16 3.32 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.18 0.83 0.83 0.89 0.89 48 0.04 0.16 0.94 0.98 0.91 0.87 72 0.00 0.15 1.05 1.12 0.88 0.90 96 -0.09 1.33 0.84 120 -0.01 1.67 0.74 144 0.07 2.03 0.64 168 0.05 2.25 0.71 192 0.31 2.52 0.53 216 0.29 2.86 0.56 240 0.34 2.63 0.62 264 0.43 2.69 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.09 0.82 0.88 0.89 0.89 48 -0.23 -0.20 0.99 1.15 0.88 0.86 72 -0.39 -0.31 1.19 1.39 0.88 0.80 96 -0.30 1.70 0.75 120 -0.49 1.96 0.69 144 -0.31 2.25 0.68 168 -0.29 2.25 0.74 192 -0.37 2.48 0.64 216 -0.15 2.59 0.58 240 -0.21 2.73 0.56 264 -0.46 2.57 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.74 3.51 3.56 48 -0.29 -0.67 3.83 3.97 72 -0.22 -0.65 4.38 4.36 96 -0.64 5.00 120 -0.71 5.81 144 -0.49 6.89 168 -0.36 7.75 192 -0.07 8.43 216 -0.35 8.91 240 -0.72 9.21 264 -0.24 9.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.53 3.94 3.71 48 -0.38 -0.33 4.28 4.53 72 -0.35 -0.26 5.14 4.97 96 -0.12 6.08 120 -0.22 7.34 144 -0.43 9.04 168 -0.29 10.24 192 -0.15 11.33 216 -0.77 12.28 240 -0.48 12.83 264 0.32 13.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.76 4.87 5.30 48 -0.68 -0.57 5.73 6.67 72 -0.58 -0.73 6.86 8.07 96 -0.77 9.30 120 -0.57 11.61 144 -0.66 13.63 168 -0.84 15.69 192 -0.77 17.92 216 -1.16 19.93 240 -0.70 20.27 264 -0.35 21.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.17 -2.82 8.45 9.53 0.65 0.62 48 -2.61 -3.45 8.78 10.11 0.77 0.75 72 -3.12 -4.18 9.50 10.81 0.77 0.77 96 -5.08 11.37 0.73 120 -5.81 11.96 0.72 144 -6.27 12.74 0.72 168 -6.57 13.35 0.73 192 -6.88 13.97 0.72 216 -7.28 14.86 0.67 240 -7.55 15.48 0.63 264 -8.18 16.16 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.44 -4.65 10.80 11.63 0.58 0.54 48 -4.80 -5.36 11.18 12.33 0.74 0.70 72 -5.60 -6.05 12.03 13.11 0.77 0.73 96 -7.25 13.86 0.75 120 -8.16 14.63 0.74 144 -8.83 15.44 0.75 168 -9.42 16.25 0.75 192 -10.25 17.42 0.71 216 -11.12 18.81 0.67 240 -11.67 19.64 0.66 264 -12.31 20.07 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.89 -7.22 14.72 14.78 0.63 0.66 48 -9.34 -9.88 16.46 16.72 0.77 0.78 72 -11.45 -11.73 18.39 18.63 0.78 0.79 96 -13.89 20.78 0.79 120 -15.72 22.60 0.80 144 -17.04 24.31 0.79 168 -18.01 25.64 0.80 192 -19.13 27.46 0.78 216 -20.45 29.75 0.73 240 -21.47 31.20 0.72 264 -22.66 32.56 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.37 1.04 1.03 0.46 0.54 48 -0.47 -0.40 1.08 1.09 0.60 0.64 72 -0.47 -0.40 1.10 1.12 0.65 0.67 96 -0.42 1.16 0.67 120 -0.42 1.19 0.65 144 -0.41 1.25 0.67 168 -0.40 1.28 0.68 192 -0.44 1.36 0.67 216 -0.47 1.43 0.64 240 -0.48 1.50 0.60 264 -0.47 1.57 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.17 0.77 0.76 0.58 0.56 48 0.15 0.15 0.81 0.79 0.61 0.63 72 0.13 0.16 0.84 0.82 0.63 0.68 96 0.12 0.85 0.68 120 0.08 0.88 0.68 144 0.05 0.90 0.68 168 0.01 0.94 0.67 192 -0.02 1.01 0.65 216 -0.05 1.06 0.60 240 -0.09 1.11 0.57 264 -0.09 1.15 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.45 0.70 0.74 0.60 0.60 48 -0.56 -0.62 0.84 0.89 0.65 0.65 72 -0.63 -0.69 0.92 0.98 0.67 0.66 96 -0.74 1.05 0.66 120 -0.77 1.10 0.66 144 -0.80 1.15 0.65 168 -0.82 1.21 0.60 192 -0.85 1.24 0.57 216 -0.87 1.28 0.57 240 -0.89 1.33 0.54 264 -0.92 1.35 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.73 3.20 3.21 48 -0.52 -0.66 3.42 3.44 72 -0.50 -0.63 3.67 3.62 96 -0.63 3.82 120 -0.69 4.01 144 -0.68 4.18 168 -0.65 4.37 192 -0.69 4.61 216 -0.73 4.92 240 -0.73 5.12 264 -0.78 5.24 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.71 3.36 3.35 48 -0.80 -0.86 3.61 3.64 72 -0.89 -0.90 3.87 3.91 96 -0.94 4.19 120 -0.96 4.47 144 -1.03 4.84 168 -0.99 5.30 192 -0.97 5.64 216 -0.96 5.96 240 -1.00 6.16 264 -1.06 6.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.68 4.26 4.36 48 -0.67 -0.81 4.92 4.97 72 -0.75 -0.92 5.48 5.53 96 -0.96 6.22 120 -1.01 6.72 144 -1.08 7.23 168 -1.15 7.72 192 -1.15 8.33 216 -1.12 8.78 240 -1.24 8.95 264 -1.27 9.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.10 -1.81 9.76 9.91 0.98 0.98 48 -2.71 -2.61 12.74 12.86 0.98 0.98 72 -2.75 -2.63 17.14 17.28 0.97 0.97 96 -2.57 23.55 0.95 120 -3.50 31.89 0.92 144 -3.48 41.71 0.86 168 -2.25 51.08 0.80 192 -2.10 56.88 0.76 216 -2.33 61.82 0.71 240 -2.10 70.24 0.61 264 -2.19 75.42 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 392 12 UTC = 376 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.14 -2.47 12.10 12.08 0.98 0.98 48 -2.82 -2.37 16.92 17.07 0.98 0.98 72 -2.21 -1.68 24.17 24.01 0.97 0.97 96 -0.63 32.61 0.96 120 -0.99 44.05 0.93 144 -1.92 58.82 0.88 168 -0.93 71.98 0.82 192 0.21 81.38 0.79 216 0.87 90.64 0.73 240 0.54 102.79 0.65 264 0.68 113.61 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 410 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.67 -4.71 18.84 18.48 0.98 0.98 48 -5.30 -4.81 24.31 24.97 0.98 0.98 72 -4.75 -3.98 33.45 33.35 0.98 0.98 96 -3.05 43.71 0.96 120 -3.75 59.15 0.93 144 -6.30 78.05 0.89 168 -5.88 97.29 0.84 192 -3.80 112.06 0.80 216 -2.91 125.69 0.75 240 -3.83 140.62 0.68 264 -4.11 155.89 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 408 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.32 1.56 1.62 0.92 0.92 48 -0.28 -0.29 1.79 1.85 0.94 0.94 72 -0.21 -0.21 2.06 2.13 0.93 0.93 96 -0.11 2.48 0.90 120 -0.01 2.91 0.87 144 0.00 3.50 0.82 168 0.04 4.13 0.76 192 0.11 4.57 0.73 216 0.17 4.93 0.68 240 0.16 5.26 0.62 264 0.16 5.52 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 419 12 UTC = 399 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.02 0.94 0.97 0.95 0.95 48 -0.02 0.00 1.17 1.20 0.96 0.96 72 0.00 0.03 1.53 1.53 0.95 0.95 96 0.06 1.92 0.93 120 0.06 2.40 0.89 144 -0.02 2.95 0.85 168 -0.06 3.53 0.80 192 0.01 3.93 0.76 216 0.04 4.23 0.71 240 0.01 4.46 0.67 264 0.00 4.87 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 450 12 UTC = 427 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.05 1.24 1.21 0.93 0.93 48 -0.03 -0.01 1.51 1.51 0.93 0.93 72 -0.07 -0.03 1.86 1.84 0.90 0.91 96 -0.07 2.21 0.87 120 -0.10 2.66 0.83 144 -0.09 3.15 0.78 168 -0.13 3.57 0.73 192 -0.17 3.79 0.69 216 -0.19 3.96 0.65 240 -0.20 4.17 0.60 264 -0.23 4.35 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 445 12 UTC = 422 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.71 3.90 3.94 48 -0.66 -0.69 4.38 4.43 72 -0.68 -0.70 5.03 5.11 96 -0.74 5.95 120 -0.72 7.08 144 -0.83 8.23 168 -0.87 9.31 192 -0.76 9.99 216 -0.65 10.52 240 -0.70 10.93 264 -0.79 11.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 406 12 UTC = 381 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.61 4.26 4.36 48 -0.70 -0.73 5.34 5.46 72 -0.72 -0.79 6.70 6.71 96 -0.84 8.24 120 -0.76 10.00 144 -0.76 11.85 168 -0.79 13.56 192 -0.84 14.83 216 -0.78 15.46 240 -0.68 16.67 264 -0.71 17.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 440 12 UTC = 414 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.67 5.51 5.44 48 -0.76 -0.86 7.03 7.06 72 -0.81 -0.86 8.75 8.78 96 -0.98 10.79 120 -0.94 13.22 144 -0.83 15.94 168 -0.82 18.73 192 -0.90 20.95 216 -0.85 22.06 240 -0.73 24.03 264 -0.72 25.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 436 12 UTC = 410 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.83 -2.35 9.28 9.68 0.97 0.97 48 -1.94 -2.74 11.87 12.11 0.97 0.98 72 -2.36 -2.52 15.46 15.84 0.96 0.97 96 -3.37 21.19 0.94 120 -3.83 27.27 0.89 144 -4.44 35.84 0.84 168 -6.63 44.16 0.74 192 -8.41 50.10 0.65 216 -8.28 54.00 0.56 240 -7.76 55.91 0.57 264 -7.18 57.40 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.61 -6.47 12.25 12.57 0.98 0.98 48 -6.83 -7.28 15.84 16.45 0.98 0.98 72 -6.98 -7.29 22.00 23.26 0.96 0.97 96 -9.25 33.52 0.93 120 -9.35 40.11 0.90 144 -8.39 47.27 0.87 168 -10.67 59.11 0.78 192 -12.70 68.92 0.67 216 -13.23 77.86 0.58 240 -11.60 82.11 0.58 264 -10.56 81.67 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.96 -8.30 16.03 17.06 0.98 0.98 48 -9.58 -10.50 22.02 24.27 0.98 0.98 72 -11.08 -11.55 30.92 34.68 0.97 0.97 96 -15.16 50.01 0.94 120 -16.07 62.53 0.91 144 -13.57 71.27 0.87 168 -12.96 85.22 0.80 192 -13.50 98.37 0.71 216 -15.85 111.81 0.64 240 -16.10 120.77 0.62 264 -15.78 122.39 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.64 1.54 1.48 0.86 0.88 48 -0.63 -0.67 1.68 1.60 0.90 0.91 72 -0.56 -0.66 1.84 1.80 0.89 0.90 96 -0.65 2.09 0.87 120 -0.65 2.57 0.79 144 -0.54 2.90 0.76 168 -0.47 3.19 0.71 192 -0.50 3.47 0.69 216 -0.51 3.83 0.62 240 -0.48 4.20 0.55 264 -0.58 4.32 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.10 0.92 0.95 0.90 0.90 48 0.00 0.05 1.09 1.13 0.91 0.92 72 -0.02 0.01 1.33 1.43 0.90 0.90 96 -0.07 1.79 0.86 120 -0.06 2.21 0.82 144 -0.03 2.39 0.77 168 -0.02 2.71 0.73 192 0.02 3.08 0.67 216 -0.07 3.42 0.58 240 -0.02 3.53 0.60 264 -0.04 3.59 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.14 0.95 0.96 0.91 0.91 48 -0.23 -0.22 1.18 1.18 0.91 0.90 72 -0.35 -0.31 1.45 1.47 0.89 0.89 96 -0.30 1.76 0.85 120 -0.38 2.03 0.82 144 -0.33 2.26 0.79 168 -0.29 2.53 0.75 192 -0.27 2.77 0.68 216 -0.29 2.96 0.65 240 -0.34 3.13 0.61 264 -0.30 3.15 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.71 4.16 4.13 48 -0.48 -0.69 4.53 4.52 72 -0.41 -0.80 4.98 4.91 96 -0.86 5.52 120 -0.88 6.57 144 -0.69 7.45 168 -0.49 8.23 192 -0.50 9.11 216 -0.80 9.71 240 -0.90 10.03 264 -0.76 10.31 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.71 4.27 4.26 48 -0.60 -0.71 4.93 5.12 72 -0.58 -0.87 5.89 6.02 96 -0.91 7.44 120 -0.92 9.02 144 -1.07 10.26 168 -0.77 11.62 192 -0.52 13.06 216 -0.47 14.05 240 -0.43 14.71 264 -0.08 15.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.66 5.28 5.51 48 -0.66 -0.55 6.40 6.86 72 -0.72 -0.56 8.01 8.59 96 -0.63 10.79 120 -0.33 13.65 144 -0.42 15.60 168 -0.27 18.03 192 0.18 20.35 216 -0.05 21.91 240 0.41 23.24 264 0.56 24.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 ---------------------------------------------------------