VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JULY 2017 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.07 0.69 0.70 0.99 0.99 18.4 18.4 48 -0.15 -0.12 1.15 1.18 0.97 0.97 27.8 27.9 72 -0.15 -0.12 1.70 1.70 0.94 0.94 36.2 36.2 96 -0.13 2.37 0.88 44.7 120 -0.11 3.06 0.80 52.0 144 -0.08 3.79 0.70 58.5 168 -0.05 4.49 0.58 64.3 192 0.03 5.03 0.48 68.5 216 0.09 5.46 0.40 72.1 240 0.12 5.76 0.34 74.6 264 0.11 6.06 0.28 76.5 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 0.08 5.50 5.48 1.00 1.00 12.6 12.4 48 0.12 0.39 10.66 10.87 0.99 0.99 21.6 21.6 72 0.55 0.90 17.36 17.53 0.96 0.96 30.6 30.9 96 1.13 25.38 0.92 39.7 120 1.47 34.70 0.84 48.1 144 1.86 43.83 0.75 55.1 168 2.28 53.77 0.62 62.1 192 3.22 62.26 0.50 67.4 216 4.09 68.76 0.41 71.9 240 4.74 73.50 0.33 75.3 264 4.91 76.30 0.28 76.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.13 8.12 8.29 1.00 1.00 11.8 11.9 48 -0.68 -0.51 15.93 16.29 0.99 0.99 20.7 20.8 72 -0.97 -0.65 26.03 26.31 0.96 0.96 29.6 29.8 96 -1.05 37.68 0.92 38.4 120 -1.01 51.73 0.85 46.5 144 -0.74 64.94 0.76 53.2 168 -0.16 80.24 0.63 60.3 192 1.22 93.05 0.52 65.5 216 2.25 103.46 0.41 69.9 240 2.97 110.41 0.33 73.0 264 3.20 114.97 0.28 74.5 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.10 0.43 0.43 0.99 0.99 48 0.14 0.14 0.73 0.74 0.96 0.96 72 0.16 0.16 1.05 1.07 0.91 0.91 96 0.17 1.39 0.84 120 0.18 1.73 0.76 144 0.19 2.01 0.67 168 0.20 2.38 0.54 192 0.23 2.67 0.42 216 0.26 2.89 0.32 240 0.28 3.03 0.26 264 0.30 3.14 0.21 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.18 0.63 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.31 -0.32 1.06 1.07 0.94 0.94 72 -0.40 -0.41 1.49 1.51 0.87 0.87 96 -0.48 1.92 0.78 120 -0.51 2.33 0.68 144 -0.52 2.62 0.58 168 -0.53 2.95 0.47 192 -0.52 3.15 0.40 216 -0.52 3.32 0.34 240 -0.54 3.45 0.29 264 -0.56 3.52 0.26 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.15 1.86 1.85 48 -0.27 -0.28 3.17 3.19 72 -0.36 -0.34 4.51 4.55 96 -0.40 5.88 120 -0.44 7.21 144 -0.41 8.36 168 -0.41 9.56 192 -0.40 10.50 216 -0.44 11.25 240 -0.49 11.80 264 -0.54 12.07 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.18 3.18 3.19 48 -0.25 -0.32 5.36 5.35 72 -0.36 -0.43 7.61 7.62 96 -0.49 9.84 120 -0.48 12.09 144 -0.40 13.94 168 -0.34 16.07 192 -0.23 17.57 216 -0.26 18.89 240 -0.36 19.67 264 -0.44 20.15 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.04 2.70 2.87 0.97 0.97 20.6 20.9 48 0.05 0.00 4.09 4.53 0.94 0.94 27.3 27.4 72 -0.09 -0.06 5.08 5.44 0.91 0.91 31.8 31.8 96 -0.20 6.12 0.88 35.5 120 -0.28 6.89 0.85 38.5 144 -0.17 7.61 0.82 41.2 168 -0.41 8.23 0.78 43.5 192 -1.32 9.44 0.72 45.7 216 -2.52 10.45 0.68 47.2 240 -3.73 11.58 0.63 48.6 264 -4.76 12.53 0.58 50.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.29 -1.76 4.53 4.75 0.98 0.98 21.8 22.0 48 -3.80 -4.35 7.76 8.19 0.96 0.95 29.8 30.1 72 -5.86 -6.10 10.51 10.73 0.93 0.91 35.5 35.8 96 -7.68 12.83 0.88 40.2 120 -8.81 14.71 0.85 43.8 144 -9.57 16.41 0.80 46.9 168 -10.64 18.14 0.76 49.9 192 -12.23 20.48 0.69 52.9 216 -13.90 22.94 0.62 55.5 240 -15.39 25.27 0.55 58.2 264 -16.52 27.21 0.47 60.2 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.10 0.38 0.39 0.96 0.97 48 -0.12 -0.11 0.57 0.57 0.91 0.93 72 -0.13 -0.12 0.70 0.69 0.86 0.90 96 -0.13 0.79 0.87 120 -0.13 0.89 0.83 144 -0.13 1.02 0.78 168 -0.13 1.13 0.73 192 -0.14 1.26 0.66 216 -0.16 1.37 0.59 240 -0.17 1.46 0.54 264 -0.16 1.52 0.50 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.29 0.40 0.43 0.94 0.92 48 -0.44 -0.47 0.62 0.66 0.86 0.82 72 -0.53 -0.56 0.76 0.79 0.78 0.73 96 -0.63 0.88 0.66 120 -0.69 0.96 0.59 144 -0.73 1.04 0.52 168 -0.77 1.10 0.45 192 -0.80 1.15 0.38 216 -0.82 1.20 0.31 240 -0.84 1.23 0.26 264 -0.85 1.26 0.22 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.09 1.38 1.35 48 -0.14 -0.15 2.05 2.03 72 -0.17 -0.20 2.52 2.51 96 -0.24 2.92 120 -0.25 3.27 144 -0.25 3.61 168 -0.28 3.89 192 -0.29 4.16 216 -0.29 4.33 240 -0.32 4.48 264 -0.34 4.75 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.27 2.94 2.97 48 -0.31 -0.46 4.38 4.39 72 -0.36 -0.48 5.40 5.41 96 -0.43 6.20 120 -0.48 6.90 144 -0.51 7.46 168 -0.50 8.09 192 -0.44 8.79 216 -0.43 9.53 240 -0.41 10.23 264 -0.34 10.85 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.05 1.09 1.07 1.00 1.00 12.9 12.8 48 0.09 0.08 2.24 2.20 0.98 0.98 23.4 23.3 72 0.10 0.05 3.59 3.58 0.95 0.95 33.0 33.1 96 0.06 5.07 0.90 41.6 120 0.05 6.77 0.82 49.9 144 -0.01 8.27 0.73 56.3 168 -0.06 9.66 0.64 61.8 192 -0.04 10.79 0.55 65.2 216 0.06 11.89 0.45 68.4 240 0.14 12.76 0.37 70.7 264 0.25 13.44 0.31 71.9 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.63 9.02 8.89 1.00 1.00 9.8 9.7 48 -0.99 -1.21 19.36 19.25 0.99 0.99 18.3 18.2 72 -1.43 -1.68 31.98 32.32 0.96 0.96 26.6 26.7 96 -2.04 47.32 0.92 34.5 120 -2.47 64.64 0.84 42.2 144 -3.13 81.04 0.75 49.1 168 -3.87 97.33 0.64 54.9 192 -4.12 112.96 0.52 59.2 216 -3.86 126.40 0.39 63.1 240 -3.81 136.73 0.29 66.2 264 -3.95 145.21 0.21 68.1 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -1.05 11.24 11.04 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.7 48 -2.04 -2.39 23.79 23.69 0.99 0.99 14.0 13.9 72 -3.40 -3.56 39.29 39.65 0.97 0.97 20.4 20.5 96 -4.63 58.16 0.93 27.2 120 -5.77 80.82 0.86 34.3 144 -7.65 103.44 0.77 41.0 168 -8.91 125.63 0.66 46.5 192 -9.98 146.98 0.55 51.3 216 -10.53 165.48 0.42 55.5 240 -12.30 178.77 0.33 58.6 264 -13.62 191.55 0.24 60.8 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 0.55 0.54 0.99 0.99 48 -0.05 -0.05 1.05 1.05 0.97 0.97 72 -0.07 -0.07 1.57 1.58 0.93 0.92 96 -0.09 2.12 0.87 120 -0.10 2.71 0.78 144 -0.15 3.25 0.68 168 -0.20 3.75 0.57 192 -0.25 4.24 0.46 216 -0.28 4.65 0.35 240 -0.35 4.92 0.26 264 -0.42 5.20 0.18 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.06 0.61 0.60 0.98 0.98 48 -0.12 -0.12 1.08 1.07 0.95 0.95 72 -0.16 -0.17 1.55 1.55 0.89 0.89 96 -0.21 2.02 0.82 120 -0.25 2.47 0.73 144 -0.28 2.84 0.64 168 -0.28 3.16 0.55 192 -0.28 3.51 0.44 216 -0.33 3.73 0.37 240 -0.40 4.02 0.26 264 -0.44 4.17 0.20 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.03 2.58 2.54 48 -0.02 -0.04 4.87 4.82 72 -0.02 -0.02 7.08 7.09 96 -0.01 9.28 120 -0.03 11.56 144 -0.08 13.63 168 -0.07 15.52 192 -0.09 16.98 216 -0.15 18.19 240 -0.24 19.25 264 -0.30 19.93 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 3.31 3.25 48 -0.22 -0.20 5.95 5.88 72 -0.27 -0.25 8.62 8.64 96 -0.30 11.43 120 -0.41 14.65 144 -0.48 17.84 168 -0.43 20.64 192 -0.43 23.05 216 -0.63 25.25 240 -0.77 26.94 264 -0.82 28.38 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.74 -2.08 8.27 7.52 0.96 0.96 48 -4.68 -2.22 9.95 9.37 0.97 0.97 72 -4.35 -3.12 11.98 11.78 0.96 0.96 96 -4.19 15.81 0.92 120 -4.59 19.41 0.86 144 -4.46 23.97 0.77 168 -3.77 30.83 0.66 192 -3.96 33.97 0.60 216 -2.59 34.28 0.63 240 -2.36 37.49 0.61 264 -2.71 41.06 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.20 -3.78 9.71 8.55 0.96 0.97 48 -4.06 -2.76 11.90 10.86 0.97 0.97 72 -2.87 -3.26 14.65 14.42 0.96 0.96 96 -4.52 20.90 0.93 120 -4.93 27.09 0.89 144 -4.83 33.73 0.82 168 -3.67 42.39 0.72 192 -1.54 46.59 0.66 216 1.98 50.46 0.63 240 3.41 54.77 0.63 264 3.53 59.63 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.17 -4.52 13.01 11.81 0.97 0.97 48 -3.87 -3.70 17.18 16.75 0.97 0.98 72 -2.51 -3.98 23.99 22.93 0.96 0.97 96 -5.88 33.54 0.94 120 -5.71 43.36 0.90 144 -5.10 55.89 0.83 168 -1.70 69.08 0.73 192 3.50 77.87 0.65 216 9.76 86.50 0.64 240 14.34 93.13 0.64 264 16.11 100.43 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.74 1.41 1.66 0.86 0.87 48 -0.55 -0.79 1.54 1.80 0.89 0.90 72 -0.54 -0.83 1.66 1.94 0.88 0.89 96 -0.84 2.15 0.85 120 -0.87 2.38 0.80 144 -0.88 2.71 0.73 168 -0.87 3.10 0.64 192 -0.67 3.55 0.56 216 -0.48 3.68 0.55 240 -0.39 3.74 0.56 264 -0.42 3.97 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.25 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.85 48 0.42 0.35 1.01 1.00 0.88 0.88 72 0.48 0.42 1.19 1.17 0.88 0.88 96 0.41 1.41 0.83 120 0.43 1.61 0.80 144 0.41 1.82 0.75 168 0.47 2.14 0.68 192 0.62 2.38 0.62 216 0.76 2.56 0.61 240 0.85 2.63 0.61 264 0.88 2.75 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.12 0.93 0.92 0.87 0.88 48 -0.15 -0.19 1.12 1.13 0.89 0.89 72 -0.14 -0.18 1.28 1.31 0.88 0.88 96 -0.19 1.55 0.85 120 -0.13 1.80 0.78 144 -0.07 2.05 0.70 168 0.06 2.28 0.63 192 0.12 2.47 0.60 216 0.21 2.64 0.58 240 0.34 2.82 0.54 264 0.39 2.90 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -1.12 3.47 3.80 48 -0.73 -1.13 3.84 4.21 72 -0.80 -1.28 4.30 4.67 96 -1.42 5.22 120 -1.44 5.77 144 -1.50 6.31 168 -1.45 7.08 192 -1.39 7.75 216 -1.28 7.93 240 -1.20 8.17 264 -1.13 8.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.67 3.73 3.67 48 -0.89 -0.71 4.35 4.26 72 -0.90 -0.75 5.02 5.02 96 -0.88 5.89 120 -0.97 6.91 144 -0.94 7.85 168 -0.92 9.07 192 -0.84 9.82 216 -0.88 10.60 240 -0.85 10.83 264 -0.77 11.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -1.04 5.50 5.42 48 -0.96 -1.13 6.94 6.60 72 -0.92 -1.18 8.48 8.30 96 -1.30 10.18 120 -1.37 11.79 144 -1.07 13.53 168 -0.96 15.94 192 -0.98 17.55 216 -1.06 19.17 240 -1.12 19.73 264 -0.90 20.31 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.82 -4.19 8.98 8.00 0.97 0.97 48 -7.49 -7.39 11.64 11.73 0.97 0.97 72 -7.49 -7.80 14.32 14.32 0.96 0.97 96 -4.97 17.07 0.95 120 -0.43 23.32 0.91 144 2.23 32.80 0.84 168 3.16 40.21 0.77 192 4.16 44.74 0.73 216 3.56 48.69 0.64 240 2.77 53.59 0.57 264 0.72 53.74 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.80 -4.76 11.48 9.62 0.98 0.98 48 -9.40 -7.81 15.49 13.86 0.98 0.98 72 -8.90 -7.55 19.82 18.61 0.97 0.97 96 -2.99 23.82 0.96 120 2.97 34.47 0.92 144 8.53 46.45 0.88 168 10.50 60.11 0.82 192 11.44 68.36 0.74 216 8.74 75.60 0.65 240 8.19 82.44 0.56 264 9.48 89.19 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.04 -2.48 12.59 12.58 0.98 0.98 48 -7.19 -6.07 19.54 18.95 0.98 0.98 72 -7.79 -6.60 27.89 27.92 0.98 0.97 96 -2.64 39.81 0.95 120 4.26 57.53 0.91 144 11.73 73.83 0.87 168 16.34 94.35 0.81 192 18.48 106.95 0.72 216 13.07 119.28 0.62 240 14.09 127.35 0.53 264 18.14 138.02 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 0.06 1.25 1.09 0.89 0.88 48 -0.54 -0.02 1.41 1.20 0.92 0.92 72 -0.52 0.00 1.53 1.37 0.94 0.93 96 0.06 1.61 0.93 120 0.16 2.01 0.92 144 0.38 2.43 0.89 168 0.36 2.90 0.84 192 0.16 3.34 0.74 216 0.04 3.61 0.64 240 0.11 3.97 0.56 264 0.32 4.23 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.11 0.77 0.78 0.91 0.91 48 0.20 0.16 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 72 0.25 0.26 1.20 1.17 0.92 0.92 96 0.33 1.49 0.90 120 0.41 1.98 0.83 144 0.50 2.28 0.79 168 0.62 2.75 0.69 192 0.69 3.00 0.62 216 0.53 3.24 0.58 240 0.62 3.28 0.54 264 0.85 3.51 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.30 1.03 1.03 0.91 0.91 48 0.07 0.16 1.30 1.24 0.91 0.91 72 -0.12 -0.06 1.69 1.55 0.86 0.88 96 -0.22 1.92 0.84 120 -0.21 2.48 0.74 144 -0.09 2.68 0.72 168 0.08 2.84 0.68 192 0.20 2.99 0.63 216 0.25 3.16 0.64 240 0.05 3.10 0.68 264 -0.03 3.21 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.52 3.66 3.58 48 -0.79 -0.66 4.06 3.93 72 -0.96 -0.84 4.71 4.50 96 -0.82 5.16 120 -0.89 6.10 144 -0.81 6.91 168 -0.64 7.44 192 -0.71 7.81 216 -0.81 8.40 240 -0.99 8.92 264 -0.96 8.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.26 3.60 3.42 48 -0.56 -0.39 4.42 4.13 72 -0.80 -0.60 5.49 5.15 96 -0.72 6.29 120 -0.78 7.82 144 -0.85 9.26 168 -1.07 10.74 192 -1.18 12.24 216 -1.19 13.30 240 -1.31 14.27 264 -0.99 15.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.39 5.21 5.09 48 -0.66 -0.65 6.79 6.41 72 -0.99 -0.76 8.88 8.49 96 -1.06 11.00 120 -0.92 13.74 144 -1.12 16.33 168 -1.40 18.98 192 -1.83 21.54 216 -1.48 23.58 240 -1.76 24.69 264 -1.62 25.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.07 -1.77 8.87 9.37 0.94 0.94 48 -0.46 -1.45 11.11 11.54 0.95 0.94 72 -0.86 -1.02 14.18 14.18 0.92 0.92 96 -2.91 17.77 0.87 120 -3.74 21.50 0.83 144 -3.99 25.62 0.79 168 -5.14 29.73 0.73 192 -5.02 32.04 0.69 216 -6.04 35.88 0.65 240 -5.42 37.66 0.61 264 -4.42 39.20 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 118 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.57 -2.42 12.03 11.22 0.93 0.93 48 -1.90 -0.87 14.15 13.72 0.94 0.94 72 -1.21 0.56 17.48 17.17 0.92 0.93 96 -0.04 21.16 0.90 120 -0.63 26.04 0.87 144 -0.31 31.59 0.83 168 -0.98 36.73 0.79 192 -0.24 40.79 0.76 216 -1.85 44.98 0.73 240 -2.09 49.40 0.68 264 -1.45 54.58 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 131 12 UTC = 128 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.59 -4.22 19.48 19.15 0.93 0.92 48 -4.98 -2.97 22.54 22.93 0.94 0.94 72 -4.14 -2.01 28.75 28.56 0.93 0.93 96 -2.76 35.29 0.91 120 -3.87 43.52 0.89 144 -3.54 52.39 0.86 168 -2.84 61.09 0.83 192 -1.90 67.06 0.81 216 -4.35 75.76 0.78 240 -4.80 85.76 0.73 264 -3.55 93.40 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 125 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.58 1.59 1.55 0.81 0.83 48 -0.43 -0.54 1.73 1.68 0.84 0.86 72 -0.40 -0.50 1.86 1.82 0.83 0.85 96 -0.45 2.02 0.84 120 -0.39 2.30 0.81 144 -0.33 2.58 0.78 168 -0.29 2.87 0.75 192 -0.28 3.02 0.74 216 -0.27 3.26 0.72 240 -0.33 3.57 0.69 264 -0.35 3.77 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.17 0.91 0.94 0.80 0.79 48 0.13 0.22 1.03 1.09 0.84 0.83 72 0.17 0.24 1.22 1.24 0.83 0.83 96 0.25 1.39 0.83 120 0.26 1.56 0.82 144 0.28 1.77 0.80 168 0.32 2.00 0.77 192 0.31 2.13 0.76 216 0.27 2.30 0.74 240 0.25 2.51 0.70 264 0.28 2.66 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 155 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.19 1.13 1.11 0.86 0.84 48 -0.29 -0.29 1.33 1.31 0.87 0.86 72 -0.34 -0.33 1.59 1.51 0.85 0.85 96 -0.36 1.76 0.84 120 -0.35 1.99 0.81 144 -0.33 2.20 0.80 168 -0.25 2.47 0.76 192 -0.19 2.59 0.74 216 -0.15 2.79 0.71 240 -0.11 2.86 0.70 264 -0.10 2.96 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 148 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.16 -0.81 3.78 3.67 48 -1.25 -0.88 4.22 4.08 72 -1.26 -0.86 4.74 4.62 96 -0.81 5.27 120 -0.84 5.86 144 -0.85 6.30 168 -0.90 6.85 192 -0.84 7.16 216 -0.73 7.42 240 -0.65 7.66 264 -0.74 7.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.89 3.70 3.78 48 -1.07 -1.05 4.41 4.51 72 -1.19 -1.10 5.29 5.29 96 -1.10 6.14 120 -1.15 6.96 144 -1.04 7.73 168 -0.92 8.65 192 -0.86 9.15 216 -0.84 9.67 240 -0.78 10.31 264 -0.77 10.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.61 5.39 5.41 48 -0.77 -0.78 6.99 6.93 72 -0.86 -0.90 8.79 8.55 96 -0.87 10.20 120 -0.90 11.75 144 -0.67 13.26 168 -0.71 14.97 192 -0.46 16.06 216 -0.09 17.65 240 0.11 18.93 264 -0.03 19.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 151 12 UTC = 145 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.70 -3.51 6.39 7.04 0.98 0.98 48 0.38 -1.61 8.61 9.59 0.98 0.98 72 0.83 -2.12 13.09 15.54 0.96 0.96 96 -2.37 24.01 0.93 120 0.02 31.74 0.91 144 0.52 40.15 0.86 168 4.67 54.25 0.73 192 11.26 62.10 0.67 216 13.20 69.53 0.57 240 11.56 78.44 0.50 264 11.29 78.79 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.93 -9.31 10.67 12.12 0.98 0.98 48 -5.06 -7.67 12.80 14.11 0.98 0.98 72 -4.91 -9.88 17.91 22.88 0.97 0.95 96 -11.91 33.37 0.93 120 -9.32 42.60 0.90 144 -8.41 51.42 0.88 168 -5.32 66.83 0.77 192 3.61 84.64 0.61 216 7.41 87.09 0.60 240 7.75 100.50 0.53 264 8.93 109.91 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.02 -9.16 13.24 14.49 0.98 0.98 48 -6.29 -7.77 17.39 17.99 0.98 0.97 72 -7.86 -10.48 24.28 26.92 0.98 0.97 96 -14.54 41.54 0.95 120 -12.57 54.15 0.92 144 -13.79 64.88 0.90 168 -11.78 81.25 0.83 192 -2.04 107.69 0.69 216 4.92 108.63 0.67 240 6.17 127.68 0.59 264 8.35 141.86 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.69 1.28 1.25 0.84 0.85 48 -0.65 -0.74 1.36 1.43 0.86 0.86 72 -0.68 -0.82 1.53 1.64 0.85 0.87 96 -0.85 1.85 0.84 120 -0.78 2.20 0.78 144 -0.61 2.44 0.71 168 -0.76 2.65 0.60 192 -0.62 3.06 0.51 216 -0.49 3.13 0.49 240 -0.43 3.27 0.46 264 -0.29 3.51 0.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.10 0.97 1.01 0.90 0.90 48 0.06 0.10 1.06 1.08 0.91 0.91 72 0.03 0.05 1.21 1.35 0.91 0.91 96 -0.03 1.62 0.87 120 -0.04 2.00 0.78 144 -0.13 2.30 0.79 168 -0.30 2.64 0.77 192 -0.13 3.15 0.66 216 0.07 3.32 0.63 240 0.26 3.66 0.54 264 0.39 3.94 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 0.06 1.02 1.05 0.92 0.93 48 -0.27 -0.10 1.27 1.31 0.91 0.94 72 -0.36 -0.11 1.49 1.69 0.92 0.92 96 -0.11 2.02 0.88 120 -0.22 2.45 0.84 144 -0.09 2.84 0.79 168 -0.08 3.25 0.77 192 -0.26 3.54 0.71 216 -0.42 3.72 0.68 240 -0.46 4.03 0.59 264 -0.58 4.50 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.29 3.65 3.53 48 -0.22 -0.08 4.08 4.05 72 -0.07 0.09 4.65 5.01 96 0.22 5.95 120 0.13 7.36 144 0.17 8.36 168 -0.01 9.35 192 -0.08 10.49 216 0.27 11.02 240 0.04 11.32 264 0.04 11.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.33 4.08 4.36 48 -0.41 -0.17 4.76 5.38 72 -0.49 0.03 5.84 6.73 96 0.17 8.14 120 -0.02 9.35 144 -0.22 10.91 168 -0.46 12.47 192 -1.12 14.08 216 -0.79 15.49 240 -0.66 16.29 264 -0.62 16.16 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.24 5.08 5.05 48 -1.00 0.02 6.19 6.20 72 -1.23 0.01 7.37 7.61 96 0.02 9.43 120 -0.15 11.51 144 -0.48 14.18 168 -0.32 17.31 192 -1.38 19.08 216 -1.44 22.21 240 -1.21 23.72 264 -1.15 24.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.50 -2.20 9.02 8.33 0.73 0.69 48 -1.94 -1.71 9.52 8.65 0.81 0.78 72 -1.79 -1.86 10.15 9.23 0.82 0.77 96 -2.09 9.94 0.73 120 -1.96 10.43 0.69 144 -1.97 10.99 0.65 168 -2.47 11.44 0.63 192 -3.65 12.53 0.60 216 -4.94 13.38 0.57 240 -5.75 14.27 0.49 264 -6.73 15.63 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.70 -4.63 11.32 10.94 0.63 0.60 48 -4.23 -4.36 11.68 11.41 0.73 0.73 72 -4.40 -4.60 12.30 12.12 0.76 0.73 96 -5.07 12.85 0.70 120 -5.40 13.47 0.67 144 -5.80 14.30 0.65 168 -6.45 15.15 0.63 192 -7.74 16.35 0.60 216 -9.23 17.51 0.55 240 -10.10 18.53 0.48 264 -10.83 19.39 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.90 -6.80 14.91 13.17 0.56 0.61 48 -6.78 -7.97 16.15 15.02 0.68 0.70 72 -7.97 -9.16 17.63 16.76 0.70 0.73 96 -10.39 18.19 0.74 120 -11.39 19.38 0.72 144 -12.29 20.85 0.71 168 -13.84 22.78 0.71 192 -15.58 24.62 0.72 216 -17.17 26.07 0.69 240 -17.78 26.97 0.64 264 -18.57 27.62 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.26 0.97 0.97 0.43 0.45 48 -0.28 -0.27 1.00 0.99 0.53 0.53 72 -0.29 -0.27 1.03 1.02 0.57 0.56 96 -0.27 1.03 0.56 120 -0.28 1.06 0.53 144 -0.29 1.11 0.55 168 -0.29 1.15 0.55 192 -0.28 1.20 0.48 216 -0.27 1.23 0.43 240 -0.25 1.27 0.36 264 -0.25 1.34 0.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.17 0.80 0.79 0.56 0.56 48 0.19 0.18 0.85 0.83 0.63 0.62 72 0.17 0.20 0.87 0.87 0.65 0.64 96 0.18 0.90 0.61 120 0.13 0.92 0.61 144 0.12 0.94 0.63 168 0.08 0.98 0.63 192 0.07 1.01 0.60 216 0.04 1.05 0.58 240 0.03 1.08 0.57 264 0.05 1.07 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.38 0.65 0.70 0.59 0.56 48 -0.41 -0.54 0.78 0.84 0.62 0.61 72 -0.48 -0.61 0.87 0.92 0.61 0.64 96 -0.67 1.00 0.59 120 -0.73 1.07 0.54 144 -0.77 1.14 0.50 168 -0.82 1.21 0.45 192 -0.84 1.25 0.45 216 -0.86 1.28 0.43 240 -0.87 1.29 0.45 264 -0.88 1.30 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.53 3.45 3.44 48 -0.40 -0.67 3.82 3.80 72 -0.48 -0.72 4.12 4.07 96 -0.75 4.34 120 -0.83 4.57 144 -0.90 4.84 168 -0.95 5.01 192 -0.95 5.22 216 -0.96 5.30 240 -0.98 5.47 264 -0.97 5.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -1.04 3.66 3.68 48 -1.15 -1.14 4.09 4.10 72 -1.27 -1.19 4.47 4.43 96 -1.31 4.75 120 -1.32 5.09 144 -1.32 5.37 168 -1.37 5.66 192 -1.44 5.93 216 -1.49 6.13 240 -1.45 6.46 264 -1.49 6.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.76 4.59 4.61 48 -0.79 -0.87 5.38 5.47 72 -0.97 -0.99 6.02 6.23 96 -1.05 6.95 120 -1.14 7.48 144 -1.20 7.86 168 -1.17 8.34 192 -1.23 8.72 216 -1.25 9.20 240 -1.28 9.69 264 -1.33 9.89 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.54 -3.28 9.08 9.11 0.97 0.96 48 -3.75 -4.08 11.48 11.80 0.97 0.97 72 -3.41 -3.69 14.68 14.60 0.96 0.96 96 -3.53 18.80 0.93 120 -2.91 23.76 0.89 144 -2.41 30.06 0.82 168 -2.28 36.08 0.75 192 -1.97 40.04 0.71 216 -2.16 44.06 0.67 240 -2.08 47.18 0.63 264 -2.67 48.85 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 394 12 UTC = 380 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.91 -3.85 11.71 10.94 0.96 0.96 48 -4.29 -3.64 14.65 14.15 0.97 0.97 72 -3.03 -2.39 19.25 18.78 0.96 0.96 96 -1.42 25.13 0.94 120 -0.37 33.26 0.90 144 0.69 41.53 0.85 168 1.06 51.22 0.78 192 2.44 58.36 0.72 216 2.55 64.41 0.68 240 2.95 69.62 0.63 264 2.19 73.64 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 408 12 UTC = 393 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.14 -4.48 17.54 17.26 0.97 0.96 48 -4.82 -4.81 22.14 22.15 0.97 0.97 72 -3.67 -3.68 30.02 29.58 0.96 0.96 96 -2.90 39.72 0.94 120 -1.59 52.55 0.90 144 -0.19 65.28 0.86 168 1.38 80.11 0.79 192 4.25 91.69 0.74 216 4.52 102.13 0.69 240 5.59 110.12 0.65 264 5.29 115.89 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 406 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.46 1.44 1.46 0.87 0.86 48 -0.50 -0.47 1.59 1.60 0.90 0.90 72 -0.47 -0.45 1.75 1.78 0.90 0.89 96 -0.41 2.03 0.88 120 -0.37 2.36 0.85 144 -0.33 2.70 0.81 168 -0.33 3.10 0.76 192 -0.29 3.44 0.71 216 -0.25 3.69 0.66 240 -0.22 3.94 0.63 264 -0.22 4.15 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 419 12 UTC = 401 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.18 0.88 0.91 0.88 0.87 48 0.22 0.24 1.04 1.07 0.90 0.90 72 0.27 0.29 1.27 1.29 0.89 0.89 96 0.32 1.53 0.87 120 0.35 1.83 0.83 144 0.36 2.09 0.80 168 0.41 2.43 0.75 192 0.48 2.68 0.71 216 0.49 2.87 0.68 240 0.51 3.01 0.65 264 0.52 3.13 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 447 12 UTC = 432 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.04 1.10 1.11 0.89 0.89 48 -0.16 -0.16 1.35 1.35 0.90 0.90 72 -0.23 -0.21 1.68 1.63 0.87 0.88 96 -0.25 1.96 0.84 120 -0.25 2.32 0.79 144 -0.21 2.54 0.76 168 -0.13 2.81 0.71 192 -0.10 2.96 0.70 216 -0.04 3.15 0.67 240 -0.04 3.26 0.66 264 -0.03 3.31 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 440 12 UTC = 425 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.80 3.64 3.64 48 -0.97 -0.87 4.09 4.09 72 -1.04 -0.95 4.69 4.69 96 -0.97 5.36 120 -1.02 6.07 144 -1.00 6.67 168 -1.00 7.31 192 -0.97 7.78 216 -0.93 8.18 240 -0.92 8.49 264 -0.99 8.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 406 12 UTC = 386 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.70 3.68 3.68 48 -0.84 -0.82 4.45 4.44 72 -0.95 -0.90 5.41 5.41 96 -0.97 6.47 120 -1.03 7.65 144 -0.97 8.65 168 -0.94 9.83 192 -0.92 10.68 216 -0.91 11.56 240 -0.91 12.13 264 -0.85 12.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 440 12 UTC = 421 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.72 5.27 5.26 48 -0.77 -0.89 6.90 6.72 72 -0.88 -0.98 8.80 8.64 96 -1.02 10.71 120 -1.00 12.75 144 -0.83 14.64 168 -0.80 16.75 192 -0.79 18.32 216 -0.61 20.12 240 -0.60 21.09 264 -0.60 21.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 435 12 UTC = 415 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.53 -3.05 9.70 10.65 0.98 0.98 48 -0.29 -2.80 12.58 14.31 0.97 0.98 72 -0.12 -3.69 17.60 19.50 0.96 0.96 96 -3.79 26.47 0.92 120 -2.82 34.24 0.88 144 -4.06 43.04 0.82 168 -5.44 51.29 0.78 192 -4.74 56.99 0.73 216 -4.79 63.96 0.64 240 -6.09 71.79 0.55 264 -6.03 75.21 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.23 -9.26 13.76 14.82 0.98 0.98 48 -6.83 -10.24 17.92 19.94 0.98 0.98 72 -6.86 -11.84 25.40 28.10 0.97 0.96 96 -13.46 38.92 0.94 120 -13.10 49.55 0.90 144 -13.25 60.61 0.83 168 -16.16 73.32 0.77 192 -16.77 84.31 0.70 216 -16.37 90.56 0.64 240 -17.79 102.27 0.55 264 -18.15 109.10 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.21 -8.98 16.91 18.84 0.99 0.98 48 -8.55 -10.44 23.88 26.60 0.98 0.98 72 -9.92 -12.34 33.35 38.21 0.97 0.97 96 -15.32 51.74 0.95 120 -16.16 67.48 0.92 144 -17.72 83.80 0.86 168 -22.52 101.55 0.80 192 -24.19 121.06 0.71 216 -24.11 127.60 0.68 240 -26.79 144.04 0.59 264 -27.89 157.00 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.86 1.67 1.76 0.87 0.87 48 -0.88 -0.92 1.82 1.91 0.90 0.90 72 -0.90 -0.94 2.06 2.16 0.89 0.90 96 -0.98 2.51 0.89 120 -0.98 2.87 0.85 144 -0.96 3.38 0.80 168 -0.98 3.73 0.74 192 -0.95 4.15 0.68 216 -0.87 4.41 0.63 240 -0.95 4.75 0.57 264 -0.94 5.23 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.04 0.96 0.97 0.93 0.94 48 -0.11 -0.09 1.14 1.19 0.94 0.95 72 -0.10 -0.08 1.46 1.56 0.93 0.93 96 -0.14 1.95 0.91 120 -0.17 2.52 0.86 144 -0.20 2.86 0.82 168 -0.40 3.35 0.78 192 -0.49 3.78 0.72 216 -0.44 4.02 0.67 240 -0.47 4.29 0.62 264 -0.47 4.66 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.16 1.05 1.09 0.91 0.92 48 -0.02 0.09 1.26 1.33 0.93 0.92 72 -0.09 0.03 1.56 1.64 0.92 0.91 96 0.04 2.06 0.87 120 -0.12 2.38 0.83 144 -0.15 2.69 0.81 168 -0.17 3.04 0.76 192 -0.23 3.27 0.71 216 -0.33 3.38 0.69 240 -0.37 3.57 0.64 264 -0.41 3.87 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.59 4.29 4.30 48 -0.54 -0.51 4.69 4.73 72 -0.43 -0.42 5.35 5.54 96 -0.28 6.49 120 -0.39 7.57 144 -0.45 8.83 168 -0.54 9.45 192 -0.60 10.20 216 -0.51 10.78 240 -0.54 11.42 264 -0.70 11.88 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.35 4.46 4.54 48 -0.34 -0.29 5.45 5.65 72 -0.35 -0.14 6.77 7.13 96 -0.04 8.63 120 -0.02 10.19 144 -0.24 12.13 168 -0.12 13.59 192 -0.26 14.88 216 -0.08 16.20 240 0.45 17.15 264 0.52 17.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.40 5.61 5.56 48 -1.00 -0.38 7.07 7.14 72 -1.12 -0.29 9.00 9.26 96 -0.03 11.49 120 -0.18 13.84 144 -0.25 16.58 168 -0.11 19.21 192 -0.20 21.06 216 0.10 23.54 240 0.54 25.29 264 0.89 26.88 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 44 ---------------------------------------------------------