VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY SEPTEMBER 2017 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 0.74 0.77 0.99 0.99 16.9 16.8 48 -0.04 -0.06 1.30 1.36 0.98 0.98 26.2 26.3 72 -0.04 -0.06 1.98 2.02 0.95 0.95 34.9 35.1 96 -0.05 2.82 0.91 43.7 120 -0.04 3.82 0.83 53.1 144 -0.02 4.79 0.73 60.9 168 0.06 5.79 0.61 67.4 192 0.10 6.54 0.52 72.4 216 0.10 7.14 0.42 77.3 240 0.09 7.81 0.32 81.4 264 0.11 8.38 0.23 83.7 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 0.03 5.86 6.15 1.00 1.00 11.0 11.1 48 0.04 0.18 11.56 12.14 0.99 0.99 19.3 19.7 72 0.34 0.44 18.91 19.39 0.97 0.97 27.7 28.2 96 0.83 28.40 0.93 36.6 120 0.99 40.09 0.86 45.2 144 1.18 52.09 0.77 53.3 168 1.67 65.11 0.64 60.8 192 2.05 75.06 0.52 66.5 216 1.86 83.78 0.41 71.5 240 1.56 92.47 0.29 75.6 264 1.32 98.99 0.19 78.5 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.10 8.44 8.74 1.00 1.00 9.9 9.9 48 -0.84 -0.57 16.87 17.61 0.99 0.99 17.3 17.7 72 -1.24 -0.96 27.81 28.46 0.97 0.97 25.3 25.6 96 -1.13 41.92 0.93 33.7 120 -1.56 58.94 0.87 41.8 144 -2.04 76.72 0.78 49.6 168 -2.25 95.57 0.65 56.5 192 -2.08 110.76 0.53 62.2 216 -2.32 123.55 0.42 66.8 240 -2.78 136.31 0.30 70.6 264 -3.51 146.68 0.19 73.9 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.07 0.44 0.45 0.99 0.99 48 0.09 0.10 0.77 0.80 0.97 0.97 72 0.11 0.11 1.16 1.18 0.93 0.93 96 0.13 1.59 0.88 120 0.12 2.04 0.79 144 0.11 2.49 0.69 168 0.08 2.91 0.57 192 0.07 3.25 0.47 216 0.06 3.53 0.38 240 0.06 3.81 0.27 264 0.04 4.04 0.17 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.16 0.63 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.30 -0.29 1.05 1.06 0.94 0.94 72 -0.39 -0.38 1.47 1.49 0.88 0.88 96 -0.43 1.89 0.80 120 -0.49 2.28 0.70 144 -0.52 2.63 0.60 168 -0.56 2.96 0.49 192 -0.59 3.20 0.41 216 -0.58 3.40 0.33 240 -0.60 3.60 0.26 264 -0.62 3.75 0.19 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.12 1.93 1.95 48 -0.21 -0.21 3.32 3.38 72 -0.26 -0.26 4.78 4.86 96 -0.31 6.36 120 -0.36 8.02 144 -0.42 9.57 168 -0.47 11.10 192 -0.50 12.24 216 -0.52 13.29 240 -0.54 14.12 264 -0.58 14.74 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.16 3.20 3.19 48 -0.28 -0.28 5.39 5.48 72 -0.35 -0.35 7.76 7.86 96 -0.41 10.37 120 -0.48 13.01 144 -0.57 15.62 168 -0.69 18.02 192 -0.77 19.88 216 -0.85 21.62 240 -0.93 22.91 264 -1.00 24.11 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.21 2.79 2.88 0.98 0.98 23.6 24.1 48 0.24 0.28 4.23 4.40 0.95 0.95 31.4 31.7 72 0.10 0.18 5.33 5.40 0.91 0.91 36.9 37.0 96 0.17 6.11 0.89 41.3 120 -0.02 7.09 0.85 44.6 144 -0.37 8.11 0.81 47.5 168 -0.81 9.03 0.77 50.1 192 -1.50 9.99 0.73 52.2 216 -2.61 11.13 0.67 54.1 240 -3.53 12.00 0.63 55.7 264 -4.10 12.43 0.61 56.8 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.17 -1.39 4.48 4.70 0.98 0.98 22.1 22.0 48 -3.92 -4.15 7.76 8.02 0.95 0.94 29.9 30.0 72 -6.01 -6.16 10.29 10.41 0.92 0.91 35.8 36.0 96 -7.55 12.34 0.88 41.0 120 -8.74 14.59 0.83 45.3 144 -9.78 16.80 0.77 49.4 168 -11.15 18.99 0.71 52.8 192 -12.47 21.14 0.65 55.9 216 -13.83 23.36 0.57 59.0 240 -14.95 25.35 0.51 61.1 264 -15.09 26.31 0.46 62.6 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.12 0.41 0.43 0.96 0.97 48 -0.16 -0.15 0.63 0.64 0.91 0.93 72 -0.17 -0.16 0.78 0.79 0.86 0.90 96 -0.16 0.90 0.87 120 -0.16 1.00 0.83 144 -0.15 1.11 0.79 168 -0.15 1.23 0.75 192 -0.16 1.34 0.70 216 -0.17 1.43 0.66 240 -0.20 1.53 0.61 264 -0.19 1.60 0.57 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.31 0.43 0.45 0.93 0.92 48 -0.49 -0.51 0.67 0.69 0.85 0.83 72 -0.59 -0.62 0.81 0.83 0.77 0.74 96 -0.68 0.92 0.67 120 -0.72 0.99 0.61 144 -0.75 1.05 0.55 168 -0.77 1.10 0.48 192 -0.79 1.15 0.42 216 -0.81 1.19 0.36 240 -0.81 1.23 0.31 264 -0.78 1.24 0.26 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 1.39 1.40 48 -0.15 -0.14 2.11 2.10 72 -0.17 -0.17 2.66 2.63 96 -0.17 3.06 120 -0.16 3.42 144 -0.16 3.74 168 -0.18 4.01 192 -0.18 4.25 216 -0.16 4.44 240 -0.09 4.69 264 -0.04 4.84 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.29 2.88 2.89 48 -0.35 -0.45 4.26 4.28 72 -0.37 -0.44 5.38 5.40 96 -0.44 6.33 120 -0.47 7.02 144 -0.51 7.66 168 -0.57 8.37 192 -0.59 9.06 216 -0.60 9.73 240 -0.55 10.33 264 -0.52 10.84 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.00 12.3 12.3 48 0.02 0.02 2.10 2.12 0.98 0.98 21.9 22.2 72 0.04 0.04 3.24 3.31 0.96 0.95 30.2 30.9 96 0.04 4.58 0.91 38.8 120 0.05 6.22 0.83 46.7 144 0.09 7.82 0.73 53.7 168 0.05 9.20 0.63 59.9 192 0.06 10.64 0.50 65.1 216 0.23 11.47 0.42 67.7 240 0.42 12.08 0.36 69.8 264 0.51 12.78 0.31 72.0 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.20 8.52 8.63 1.00 1.00 9.5 9.6 48 -0.34 -0.40 18.16 18.73 0.99 0.99 17.5 17.8 72 -0.41 -0.37 29.11 30.42 0.97 0.96 24.7 25.4 96 -0.39 43.53 0.93 32.8 120 -0.35 61.35 0.86 40.6 144 -0.48 78.80 0.76 47.3 168 -0.90 95.06 0.66 53.6 192 -1.00 111.89 0.52 58.7 216 -0.21 123.68 0.41 62.5 240 0.26 132.94 0.32 65.6 264 0.31 140.44 0.25 67.8 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.54 10.67 10.84 1.00 1.00 7.6 7.6 48 -1.23 -1.13 22.11 22.89 0.99 0.99 13.2 13.5 72 -1.80 -1.50 36.08 37.49 0.97 0.97 19.0 19.6 96 -2.23 54.61 0.94 26.0 120 -3.63 77.70 0.87 33.4 144 -5.31 101.50 0.78 40.1 168 -7.17 123.67 0.67 46.4 192 -8.87 145.63 0.55 51.5 216 -10.13 161.46 0.43 55.2 240 -10.93 174.89 0.33 58.5 264 -11.64 187.41 0.24 61.1 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 0.53 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 0.00 0.99 1.01 0.97 0.97 72 -0.02 -0.01 1.47 1.51 0.93 0.93 96 -0.03 2.01 0.87 120 -0.07 2.59 0.78 144 -0.12 3.19 0.67 168 -0.16 3.75 0.54 192 -0.23 4.16 0.43 216 -0.33 4.53 0.32 240 -0.38 4.84 0.23 264 -0.41 5.12 0.15 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.07 0.61 0.61 0.99 0.99 48 -0.12 -0.12 1.05 1.06 0.96 0.96 72 -0.14 -0.15 1.46 1.50 0.92 0.92 96 -0.18 1.96 0.86 120 -0.25 2.44 0.77 144 -0.32 2.86 0.69 168 -0.38 3.32 0.58 192 -0.44 3.69 0.48 216 -0.52 3.99 0.39 240 -0.58 4.16 0.34 264 -0.58 4.28 0.29 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 2.43 2.47 48 -0.02 -0.01 4.56 4.62 72 -0.02 0.00 6.46 6.68 96 -0.03 8.72 120 -0.07 10.86 144 -0.09 12.89 168 -0.06 14.93 192 -0.08 16.65 216 -0.14 17.85 240 -0.21 18.92 264 -0.24 19.62 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.07 3.20 3.21 48 -0.13 -0.13 5.54 5.63 72 -0.18 -0.21 7.99 8.22 96 -0.24 10.95 120 -0.33 14.11 144 -0.39 17.23 168 -0.46 20.36 192 -0.48 22.88 216 -0.54 24.73 240 -0.72 26.49 264 -0.68 27.96 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.08 -1.39 7.28 7.44 0.98 0.98 48 -2.40 -1.38 9.24 10.29 0.98 0.97 72 -0.97 -1.40 12.90 14.59 0.97 0.96 96 -1.64 19.07 0.94 120 0.26 24.20 0.91 144 0.37 31.71 0.85 168 -5.23 37.90 0.77 192 -8.92 43.97 0.73 216 -8.25 46.21 0.68 240 -5.96 50.49 0.63 264 -3.37 53.92 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.90 -4.55 9.47 9.49 0.98 0.98 48 -4.16 -4.70 12.80 13.14 0.99 0.99 72 -2.27 -4.55 17.63 19.40 0.98 0.97 96 -3.78 25.74 0.95 120 -2.20 34.36 0.92 144 -1.61 46.28 0.86 168 -4.92 56.72 0.80 192 -8.94 68.89 0.73 216 -8.67 72.88 0.71 240 -8.11 80.93 0.62 264 -6.88 92.14 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.77 -5.06 13.51 13.24 0.98 0.99 48 -4.42 -5.55 20.43 20.49 0.98 0.98 72 -1.85 -5.13 29.45 31.95 0.97 0.97 96 -4.39 42.37 0.94 120 -2.74 56.66 0.91 144 -1.21 75.41 0.83 168 -3.33 92.55 0.79 192 -8.49 110.16 0.71 216 -9.82 116.63 0.68 240 -11.30 130.35 0.61 264 -15.40 148.38 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.61 1.40 1.60 0.90 0.90 48 -0.36 -0.64 1.58 1.75 0.92 0.93 72 -0.36 -0.66 1.76 1.96 0.92 0.93 96 -0.65 2.22 0.91 120 -0.71 2.58 0.87 144 -0.78 3.12 0.81 168 -0.65 3.75 0.75 192 -0.75 4.15 0.70 216 -0.77 4.49 0.65 240 -0.82 4.63 0.63 264 -0.91 5.19 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.10 0.84 0.88 0.93 0.93 48 0.15 0.13 1.04 1.08 0.94 0.94 72 0.22 0.20 1.31 1.39 0.93 0.92 96 0.25 1.70 0.89 120 0.26 2.08 0.84 144 0.31 2.52 0.77 168 0.41 2.94 0.72 192 0.33 3.33 0.66 216 0.23 3.55 0.61 240 0.11 3.79 0.57 264 -0.02 4.13 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.00 0.90 0.96 0.89 0.89 48 -0.07 -0.08 1.12 1.17 0.90 0.89 72 -0.09 -0.11 1.36 1.45 0.88 0.87 96 -0.12 1.72 0.82 120 -0.20 2.01 0.79 144 -0.15 2.31 0.74 168 -0.04 2.54 0.70 192 -0.01 2.74 0.66 216 0.00 2.96 0.62 240 -0.09 3.06 0.63 264 -0.36 3.24 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -1.01 3.47 3.68 48 -0.84 -1.08 3.88 4.12 72 -0.87 -1.13 4.53 4.77 96 -1.07 5.33 120 -1.05 6.16 144 -1.00 7.29 168 -0.80 7.99 192 -0.62 8.76 216 -0.57 9.11 240 -0.56 9.81 264 -0.64 10.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.77 3.82 3.79 48 -0.77 -0.90 4.49 4.53 72 -0.80 -0.98 5.52 5.72 96 -0.97 6.93 120 -0.94 8.23 144 -0.74 10.11 168 -0.41 11.52 192 -0.13 12.96 216 -0.09 13.50 240 0.03 14.42 264 -0.29 15.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.94 -0.87 5.57 5.42 48 -1.06 -0.95 7.27 6.97 72 -0.95 -0.90 9.38 9.41 96 -0.98 11.69 120 -0.89 14.20 144 -0.80 17.60 168 -0.52 19.81 192 -0.22 22.07 216 -0.09 22.99 240 0.18 24.49 264 -0.39 26.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.85 -4.31 9.74 8.76 0.97 0.97 48 -7.01 -6.05 12.43 11.73 0.97 0.97 72 -5.17 -3.95 15.34 15.55 0.96 0.96 96 -1.64 21.50 0.94 120 -0.50 28.34 0.88 144 1.08 37.78 0.80 168 8.44 47.14 0.74 192 11.88 52.92 0.70 216 11.27 63.30 0.58 240 13.16 72.24 0.57 264 12.11 78.48 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.30 -6.61 12.48 11.36 0.98 0.98 48 -10.04 -8.87 16.89 15.94 0.98 0.98 72 -7.49 -5.54 21.74 21.75 0.97 0.96 96 -2.93 32.19 0.94 120 -1.81 42.99 0.90 144 1.05 57.75 0.83 168 14.50 77.88 0.72 192 25.04 92.82 0.62 216 26.75 106.44 0.55 240 35.39 118.76 0.56 264 40.30 127.75 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.25 -6.81 15.08 15.62 0.99 0.98 48 -10.13 -9.69 23.91 22.72 0.98 0.98 72 -7.80 -6.26 33.15 33.12 0.97 0.97 96 -4.66 50.20 0.94 120 -3.88 68.87 0.91 144 0.28 94.56 0.83 168 21.35 127.91 0.72 192 40.93 150.42 0.62 216 45.59 166.97 0.57 240 57.33 175.95 0.57 264 68.32 185.13 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 0.03 1.15 1.07 0.89 0.88 48 -0.38 0.00 1.29 1.17 0.91 0.91 72 -0.38 0.03 1.50 1.38 0.90 0.90 96 0.05 1.71 0.89 120 0.07 2.08 0.83 144 0.12 2.52 0.75 168 0.46 3.18 0.69 192 0.82 3.90 0.59 216 0.95 4.34 0.54 240 1.42 4.61 0.53 264 1.96 5.01 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.07 0.81 0.80 0.94 0.94 48 -0.04 -0.05 1.07 1.00 0.94 0.95 72 0.05 0.05 1.33 1.28 0.93 0.93 96 0.08 1.77 0.90 120 0.06 2.23 0.84 144 0.10 2.78 0.79 168 0.49 3.57 0.69 192 0.95 4.15 0.60 216 1.15 4.34 0.56 240 1.41 4.40 0.56 264 1.72 4.55 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.20 1.09 1.06 0.89 0.88 48 0.02 0.03 1.37 1.33 0.85 0.85 72 -0.16 -0.17 1.67 1.62 0.81 0.80 96 -0.32 1.97 0.75 120 -0.36 2.28 0.66 144 -0.27 2.49 0.61 168 -0.22 2.74 0.53 192 -0.11 2.76 0.56 216 -0.06 2.99 0.54 240 0.08 3.12 0.48 264 0.12 3.07 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.62 3.57 3.57 48 -0.80 -0.70 3.92 3.85 72 -0.86 -0.77 4.56 4.39 96 -0.87 5.14 120 -0.86 6.25 144 -0.87 7.21 168 -0.71 8.25 192 -0.61 8.79 216 -0.81 9.50 240 -1.00 9.75 264 -0.86 9.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.51 3.78 3.78 48 -0.59 -0.62 4.68 4.54 72 -0.65 -0.85 5.74 5.77 96 -0.95 7.54 120 -0.99 9.44 144 -0.78 11.37 168 -1.03 13.99 192 -0.72 16.30 216 -0.70 18.08 240 -1.39 17.35 264 -1.35 17.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.66 5.60 5.56 48 -0.59 -0.71 7.66 7.23 72 -0.72 -1.16 9.88 9.61 96 -1.29 12.55 120 -1.22 16.61 144 -0.61 20.26 168 -1.11 25.02 192 -1.23 28.38 216 -1.46 30.78 240 -2.59 29.31 264 -3.00 29.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.97 9.29 8.40 0.97 0.97 48 0.43 0.00 11.55 10.94 0.97 0.97 72 -0.91 0.10 15.64 14.20 0.96 0.96 96 -2.00 19.06 0.92 120 -2.19 25.42 0.87 144 1.05 31.38 0.81 168 5.92 36.63 0.77 192 8.88 42.73 0.70 216 9.20 48.11 0.63 240 7.76 50.98 0.60 264 6.02 54.84 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 120 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.08 -1.47 12.06 10.73 0.97 0.97 48 -0.78 1.07 14.24 13.45 0.98 0.97 72 -0.61 2.46 18.66 17.66 0.97 0.97 96 0.97 24.14 0.94 120 0.72 33.70 0.90 144 3.64 44.03 0.84 168 9.76 52.24 0.81 192 13.59 61.19 0.77 216 13.89 69.49 0.70 240 12.22 74.69 0.63 264 9.80 80.10 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 130 12 UTC = 128 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.37 -2.84 20.01 18.65 0.96 0.96 48 -3.83 -0.37 22.75 22.85 0.97 0.97 72 -3.23 1.57 28.85 28.49 0.97 0.97 96 -0.16 37.02 0.95 120 -1.53 51.17 0.89 144 -0.71 66.98 0.83 168 6.80 78.26 0.81 192 13.97 91.08 0.78 216 16.08 104.53 0.70 240 13.65 115.27 0.64 264 10.56 126.03 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 127 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.50 1.61 1.48 0.89 0.90 48 -0.35 -0.42 1.71 1.58 0.91 0.92 72 -0.26 -0.31 1.87 1.75 0.91 0.91 96 -0.25 2.00 0.89 120 -0.23 2.39 0.84 144 -0.15 2.89 0.79 168 -0.08 3.34 0.76 192 0.00 3.72 0.75 216 -0.01 4.16 0.71 240 -0.03 4.34 0.66 264 -0.07 4.65 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 138 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.03 0.93 0.94 0.91 0.91 48 0.05 0.09 1.09 1.10 0.93 0.93 72 0.09 0.13 1.30 1.30 0.92 0.92 96 0.14 1.61 0.88 120 0.12 2.02 0.81 144 0.10 2.48 0.74 168 0.17 2.74 0.73 192 0.25 2.99 0.73 216 0.28 3.31 0.67 240 0.27 3.61 0.59 264 0.19 3.75 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 154 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.03 1.18 1.14 0.89 0.90 48 -0.26 -0.11 1.42 1.41 0.91 0.90 72 -0.24 -0.10 1.70 1.65 0.89 0.89 96 -0.11 2.05 0.83 120 -0.23 2.43 0.76 144 -0.37 2.80 0.71 168 -0.43 2.98 0.69 192 -0.26 3.06 0.66 216 -0.15 3.27 0.62 240 -0.16 3.57 0.59 264 -0.10 3.75 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 151 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -0.82 3.77 3.66 48 -0.97 -0.83 4.17 4.06 72 -0.93 -0.82 4.76 4.61 96 -0.72 5.39 120 -0.83 6.16 144 -1.03 6.83 168 -0.95 7.46 192 -0.91 8.15 216 -0.70 8.81 240 -0.83 9.03 264 -0.86 9.36 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.60 3.88 3.93 48 -0.84 -0.69 4.64 4.67 72 -0.87 -0.65 5.56 5.44 96 -0.58 6.63 120 -0.65 7.97 144 -0.82 9.24 168 -0.95 9.97 192 -0.89 10.94 216 -0.71 12.11 240 -0.84 12.69 264 -0.85 13.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.59 5.04 5.29 48 -0.69 -0.79 6.39 6.71 72 -0.72 -0.68 7.81 8.02 96 -0.79 9.72 120 -0.81 11.69 144 -1.04 13.78 168 -1.33 15.51 192 -1.47 17.15 216 -1.45 19.10 240 -1.39 20.63 264 -1.08 22.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 148 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.71 -3.31 6.55 8.11 0.98 0.98 48 -0.18 -1.48 8.47 11.92 0.99 0.98 72 -1.00 -2.31 11.52 16.29 0.98 0.97 96 -4.43 24.19 0.94 120 -4.86 30.40 0.92 144 -5.22 40.24 0.88 168 -1.97 51.02 0.79 192 3.34 56.05 0.73 216 7.85 59.86 0.64 240 11.19 65.10 0.65 264 21.58 72.35 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.21 -9.90 11.91 14.16 0.98 0.98 48 -7.76 -9.07 14.12 18.14 0.99 0.98 72 -9.24 -11.59 19.05 25.77 0.98 0.98 96 -13.06 33.72 0.95 120 -12.85 44.17 0.94 144 -13.02 58.64 0.89 168 -10.53 72.04 0.83 192 -3.63 81.08 0.72 216 0.26 89.71 0.68 240 3.15 92.63 0.64 264 11.89 106.76 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.69 -8.57 13.17 14.57 0.98 0.99 48 -6.54 -8.86 16.74 20.09 0.99 0.99 72 -8.71 -11.43 23.22 29.31 0.98 0.98 96 -14.10 40.27 0.96 120 -13.55 55.56 0.94 144 -13.31 76.12 0.89 168 -12.39 93.17 0.85 192 -4.84 104.80 0.74 216 -5.25 116.75 0.71 240 -3.68 121.01 0.66 264 2.91 138.36 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.48 1.39 1.19 0.89 0.91 48 -0.73 -0.50 1.56 1.35 0.92 0.93 72 -0.78 -0.58 1.74 1.50 0.92 0.93 96 -0.55 1.73 0.92 120 -0.48 2.00 0.90 144 -0.55 2.39 0.86 168 -0.62 2.71 0.81 192 -0.61 3.05 0.75 216 -0.71 3.26 0.65 240 -0.68 3.50 0.62 264 -0.90 3.97 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 -0.02 0.98 0.95 0.91 0.92 48 0.02 -0.07 1.14 1.10 0.93 0.93 72 0.02 -0.15 1.33 1.37 0.92 0.92 96 -0.17 1.64 0.91 120 -0.10 2.08 0.89 144 0.01 2.54 0.79 168 -0.05 2.86 0.74 192 0.10 3.14 0.67 216 -0.01 3.39 0.61 240 -0.16 3.44 0.60 264 -0.31 3.79 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.28 1.13 1.25 0.93 0.94 48 -0.03 0.18 1.33 1.56 0.94 0.94 72 -0.05 0.16 1.52 1.86 0.93 0.93 96 0.18 2.10 0.91 120 0.11 2.58 0.89 144 -0.06 2.94 0.84 168 -0.20 3.29 0.74 192 -0.44 3.70 0.65 216 -0.52 4.15 0.59 240 -0.26 4.14 0.59 264 -0.44 4.51 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.27 3.88 3.90 48 -0.61 -0.13 4.19 4.28 72 -0.52 -0.14 4.77 4.82 96 -0.28 5.47 120 -0.32 6.40 144 0.08 7.93 168 0.04 8.92 192 -0.15 9.09 216 -0.30 9.68 240 -0.31 10.35 264 -0.34 11.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.53 4.23 4.62 48 -0.51 -0.49 5.08 5.53 72 -0.46 -0.30 5.99 6.65 96 -0.38 7.70 120 -1.00 9.40 144 -0.31 11.12 168 -0.11 13.09 192 -0.36 13.78 216 -0.19 14.69 240 -0.66 16.31 264 -1.02 17.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.56 5.20 5.20 48 -1.08 -0.40 6.26 6.56 72 -1.04 -0.21 7.50 8.15 96 -0.53 9.78 120 -1.01 11.63 144 -0.96 14.43 168 -0.39 17.34 192 -0.44 18.83 216 -0.94 20.34 240 -0.94 22.36 264 -1.15 24.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.08 -1.58 9.26 9.21 0.73 0.77 48 -1.38 -1.21 9.75 9.84 0.82 0.82 72 -1.87 -1.62 10.55 10.80 0.82 0.81 96 -2.40 11.13 0.82 120 -2.83 11.74 0.79 144 -3.35 12.70 0.73 168 -3.72 13.47 0.67 192 -4.15 14.16 0.61 216 -5.10 14.95 0.60 240 -6.49 15.84 0.59 264 -6.80 16.29 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.35 -4.04 11.30 11.21 0.64 0.67 48 -3.85 -3.89 11.60 11.84 0.75 0.75 72 -4.66 -4.44 12.50 12.79 0.75 0.74 96 -5.45 13.25 0.75 120 -6.10 14.15 0.72 144 -6.83 15.41 0.69 168 -7.38 16.05 0.67 192 -7.91 16.88 0.62 216 -8.76 17.62 0.58 240 -9.94 18.52 0.57 264 -10.28 18.69 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.43 -5.90 13.12 13.49 0.69 0.61 48 -7.97 -7.64 14.65 15.07 0.77 0.73 72 -9.86 -9.38 16.60 16.69 0.77 0.74 96 -11.22 18.09 0.73 120 -12.30 19.22 0.73 144 -13.35 20.59 0.71 168 -14.46 22.21 0.68 192 -15.24 24.01 0.64 216 -16.21 25.77 0.62 240 -17.62 27.13 0.62 264 -17.88 27.41 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.28 0.98 0.97 0.50 0.45 48 -0.32 -0.29 1.02 1.01 0.56 0.58 72 -0.32 -0.27 1.05 1.05 0.53 0.62 96 -0.25 1.10 0.60 120 -0.23 1.14 0.57 144 -0.22 1.18 0.50 168 -0.21 1.22 0.50 192 -0.23 1.27 0.49 216 -0.23 1.33 0.44 240 -0.22 1.38 0.43 264 -0.22 1.37 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.19 0.79 0.81 0.58 0.58 48 0.13 0.17 0.82 0.85 0.67 0.63 72 0.11 0.16 0.86 0.89 0.67 0.64 96 0.14 0.93 0.60 120 0.12 0.98 0.59 144 0.09 1.02 0.54 168 0.07 1.07 0.51 192 0.07 1.16 0.47 216 0.09 1.19 0.46 240 0.10 1.19 0.44 264 0.08 1.21 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.44 0.73 0.75 0.67 0.65 48 -0.56 -0.61 0.90 0.91 0.72 0.71 72 -0.65 -0.70 1.00 1.01 0.70 0.72 96 -0.75 1.08 0.70 120 -0.78 1.15 0.66 144 -0.79 1.19 0.62 168 -0.81 1.23 0.59 192 -0.82 1.26 0.59 216 -0.83 1.30 0.56 240 -0.85 1.32 0.54 264 -0.83 1.32 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.46 3.27 3.35 48 -0.53 -0.53 3.64 3.68 72 -0.59 -0.61 4.09 4.01 96 -0.63 4.40 120 -0.65 4.69 144 -0.72 5.02 168 -0.76 5.19 192 -0.74 5.35 216 -0.76 5.42 240 -0.76 5.55 264 -0.66 5.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.10 -1.09 3.71 3.75 48 -1.20 -1.26 4.14 4.16 72 -1.29 -1.31 4.61 4.57 96 -1.42 5.04 120 -1.50 5.40 144 -1.56 5.86 168 -1.60 6.19 192 -1.61 6.36 216 -1.60 6.66 240 -1.56 6.90 264 -1.46 7.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.75 4.71 4.77 48 -0.76 -0.78 5.60 5.62 72 -0.81 -0.83 6.39 6.48 96 -0.96 7.25 120 -1.06 7.68 144 -1.06 8.28 168 -1.10 8.67 192 -1.19 9.22 216 -1.29 9.64 240 -1.33 9.82 264 -1.44 9.98 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.99 -2.71 9.03 8.80 0.98 0.98 48 -2.82 -2.91 11.59 11.76 0.98 0.98 72 -2.46 -2.28 15.82 15.80 0.97 0.97 96 -2.37 21.26 0.94 120 -1.90 28.52 0.90 144 -1.09 36.65 0.85 168 0.18 44.18 0.80 192 0.37 50.83 0.75 216 0.18 57.11 0.69 240 0.36 63.43 0.62 264 -0.30 67.43 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 389 12 UTC = 379 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.88 -4.18 11.83 11.39 0.98 0.98 48 -4.30 -3.83 15.24 15.24 0.98 0.98 72 -3.20 -2.55 20.93 21.06 0.97 0.97 96 -2.30 29.26 0.95 120 -2.23 39.72 0.92 144 -1.10 52.68 0.86 168 1.33 65.81 0.79 192 2.03 77.96 0.72 216 1.41 87.98 0.65 240 1.67 96.79 0.59 264 1.06 103.91 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.57 -4.54 17.84 17.14 0.98 0.98 48 -5.38 -4.52 23.21 22.92 0.98 0.98 72 -4.11 -3.10 31.88 32.00 0.97 0.97 96 -3.20 43.96 0.95 120 -3.85 59.96 0.92 144 -3.09 80.38 0.85 168 0.15 100.94 0.78 192 1.98 119.33 0.71 216 1.72 133.51 0.65 240 0.99 145.85 0.59 264 -0.68 156.51 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.39 1.46 1.44 0.90 0.90 48 -0.40 -0.38 1.61 1.58 0.92 0.93 72 -0.37 -0.34 1.81 1.80 0.92 0.92 96 -0.32 2.10 0.90 120 -0.32 2.51 0.87 144 -0.29 3.01 0.81 168 -0.21 3.56 0.76 192 -0.21 4.05 0.71 216 -0.23 4.47 0.66 240 -0.23 4.80 0.61 264 -0.21 5.18 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 415 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.04 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.93 48 0.08 0.09 1.10 1.11 0.94 0.94 72 0.13 0.13 1.37 1.38 0.93 0.93 96 0.15 1.74 0.90 120 0.12 2.13 0.86 144 0.13 2.62 0.79 168 0.18 3.10 0.73 192 0.21 3.51 0.67 216 0.21 3.80 0.62 240 0.19 4.06 0.57 264 0.14 4.26 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 442 12 UTC = 428 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.05 1.13 1.11 0.91 0.90 48 -0.10 -0.05 1.38 1.38 0.91 0.90 72 -0.15 -0.09 1.69 1.68 0.89 0.88 96 -0.12 2.05 0.84 120 -0.19 2.39 0.80 144 -0.22 2.75 0.74 168 -0.24 2.98 0.70 192 -0.21 3.15 0.67 216 -0.17 3.35 0.64 240 -0.21 3.56 0.61 264 -0.25 3.73 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 436 12 UTC = 423 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.81 3.60 3.63 48 -0.87 -0.85 4.03 4.07 72 -0.90 -0.88 4.72 4.71 96 -0.88 5.46 120 -0.96 6.35 144 -0.97 7.28 168 -0.88 8.09 192 -0.80 8.76 216 -0.74 9.42 240 -0.79 9.94 264 -0.79 10.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 406 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.61 3.81 3.82 48 -0.76 -0.72 4.65 4.64 72 -0.79 -0.76 5.83 5.78 96 -0.77 7.20 120 -0.83 8.70 144 -0.84 10.36 168 -0.78 11.85 192 -0.67 13.17 216 -0.61 14.29 240 -0.70 14.92 264 -0.82 15.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 435 12 UTC = 420 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.65 5.12 5.17 48 -0.73 -0.77 6.76 6.74 72 -0.73 -0.81 8.81 8.74 96 -0.84 11.10 120 -0.87 13.66 144 -0.80 16.63 168 -0.87 19.27 192 -0.89 21.41 216 -0.90 23.24 240 -1.00 24.16 264 -1.18 24.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 432 12 UTC = 414 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -1.45 9.30 10.09 0.98 0.98 48 0.97 -1.39 12.40 13.91 0.98 0.97 72 0.47 -1.62 16.23 19.15 0.97 0.96 96 -2.58 25.83 0.93 120 -2.75 33.83 0.86 144 -2.61 40.68 0.83 168 -3.65 47.21 0.78 192 -3.93 55.52 0.74 216 -3.48 58.94 0.65 240 -3.74 68.00 0.58 264 -0.97 69.74 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.94 -8.08 13.72 14.65 0.98 0.98 48 -6.26 -8.50 17.58 20.63 0.98 0.97 72 -6.99 -9.39 23.97 28.22 0.97 0.96 96 -10.43 37.02 0.94 120 -10.98 48.92 0.89 144 -11.34 59.66 0.84 168 -12.74 70.82 0.79 192 -11.47 81.78 0.73 216 -11.49 89.46 0.66 240 -13.62 99.44 0.58 264 -8.51 105.84 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.99 -7.96 15.58 17.68 0.98 0.98 48 -6.37 -8.70 20.80 25.26 0.98 0.98 72 -7.71 -9.45 29.47 36.41 0.97 0.97 96 -11.14 49.89 0.94 120 -13.67 67.51 0.90 144 -15.43 83.37 0.85 168 -20.03 99.40 0.80 192 -20.69 113.87 0.76 216 -20.95 126.14 0.68 240 -23.56 139.16 0.60 264 -19.71 151.19 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.62 1.68 1.70 0.90 0.89 48 -0.79 -0.66 1.87 1.89 0.93 0.92 72 -0.82 -0.71 2.11 2.11 0.92 0.91 96 -0.67 2.54 0.89 120 -0.68 3.00 0.83 144 -0.75 3.53 0.75 168 -0.76 3.96 0.72 192 -0.58 4.23 0.69 216 -0.62 4.69 0.63 240 -0.68 4.87 0.58 264 -0.71 5.02 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 1.01 1.00 0.93 0.93 48 -0.03 -0.01 1.20 1.25 0.94 0.93 72 -0.05 -0.02 1.51 1.61 0.92 0.91 96 -0.06 1.96 0.88 120 -0.12 2.50 0.83 144 -0.14 2.81 0.77 168 -0.18 3.22 0.72 192 -0.23 3.46 0.69 216 -0.25 3.77 0.63 240 -0.40 3.94 0.60 264 -0.36 4.33 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.19 1.10 1.14 0.93 0.92 48 0.04 0.12 1.30 1.38 0.94 0.93 72 0.04 0.11 1.54 1.69 0.93 0.91 96 0.08 1.95 0.90 120 0.01 2.40 0.87 144 -0.04 2.69 0.83 168 -0.27 2.97 0.77 192 -0.31 3.33 0.70 216 -0.32 3.63 0.66 240 -0.19 3.70 0.63 264 -0.27 3.91 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.62 4.30 4.51 48 -0.70 -0.49 4.67 4.84 72 -0.60 -0.47 5.31 5.41 96 -0.63 6.36 120 -0.73 7.42 144 -0.41 8.43 168 -0.53 9.26 192 -0.47 9.55 216 -0.53 10.31 240 -0.42 10.57 264 -0.55 11.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.50 4.38 4.73 48 -0.45 -0.56 5.30 5.71 72 -0.39 -0.49 6.47 7.06 96 -0.40 8.60 120 -0.59 10.13 144 -0.22 11.87 168 -0.19 13.16 192 -0.10 14.34 216 0.24 15.66 240 0.42 16.14 264 0.45 16.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2017 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.16 5.54 5.51 48 -0.64 0.03 6.77 7.13 72 -0.54 0.12 8.25 9.35 96 0.39 11.65 120 0.38 13.74 144 0.61 16.71 168 0.98 19.49 192 1.40 22.21 216 1.78 24.21 240 1.79 25.28 264 1.87 26.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 42 ---------------------------------------------------------