VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JANUARY 2018 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 -0.01 1.03 1.06 0.99 0.99 15.2 15.5 48 0.10 0.04 1.85 1.86 0.98 0.98 23.9 24.0 72 0.13 0.07 2.79 2.75 0.96 0.96 31.8 31.8 96 0.07 3.82 0.93 39.9 120 0.04 5.08 0.86 48.0 144 0.05 6.27 0.79 55.0 168 0.08 7.49 0.70 61.5 192 0.05 8.40 0.62 66.2 216 0.00 9.34 0.53 70.0 240 0.02 10.34 0.43 73.7 264 -0.06 11.26 0.34 76.5 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -1.09 7.58 7.81 1.00 1.00 9.5 9.5 48 -1.20 -1.59 15.61 15.56 0.99 0.99 17.2 17.1 72 -1.76 -2.10 25.27 25.01 0.97 0.97 24.9 24.6 96 -2.60 36.56 0.94 32.1 120 -3.58 51.10 0.88 39.9 144 -4.40 66.05 0.80 47.1 168 -5.00 80.52 0.71 53.2 192 -5.55 92.04 0.61 57.6 216 -6.44 103.05 0.51 61.4 240 -7.21 113.72 0.41 65.1 264 -8.28 123.76 0.32 68.2 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.17 -1.01 9.73 9.88 1.00 1.00 7.5 7.5 48 -2.52 -2.44 19.52 19.42 0.99 0.99 12.7 12.7 72 -4.22 -4.01 32.00 31.74 0.98 0.98 18.8 18.6 96 -5.43 47.42 0.95 25.0 120 -7.31 66.68 0.89 31.8 144 -9.37 87.04 0.82 38.4 168 -11.24 107.09 0.72 44.4 192 -12.66 123.67 0.63 49.0 216 -14.31 139.21 0.52 53.0 240 -15.59 154.34 0.42 57.0 264 -15.97 167.60 0.32 60.0 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.02 0.54 0.54 0.99 0.99 48 -0.02 -0.01 0.96 0.96 0.98 0.98 72 -0.05 -0.03 1.44 1.43 0.94 0.94 96 -0.05 1.95 0.90 120 -0.10 2.52 0.83 144 -0.16 3.07 0.75 168 -0.22 3.61 0.65 192 -0.25 4.02 0.56 216 -0.30 4.41 0.46 240 -0.37 4.81 0.37 264 -0.38 5.16 0.28 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.06 0.65 0.66 0.98 0.98 48 -0.16 -0.13 1.07 1.08 0.96 0.96 72 -0.21 -0.18 1.51 1.51 0.92 0.92 96 -0.22 1.93 0.86 120 -0.26 2.37 0.79 144 -0.29 2.80 0.70 168 -0.31 3.18 0.62 192 -0.33 3.40 0.57 216 -0.35 3.66 0.50 240 -0.36 3.88 0.44 264 -0.32 4.04 0.38 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.05 2.37 2.37 48 -0.11 -0.11 4.26 4.22 72 -0.17 -0.17 6.11 6.07 96 -0.17 7.95 120 -0.21 10.01 144 -0.25 11.95 168 -0.29 13.76 192 -0.28 15.06 216 -0.26 16.27 240 -0.27 17.36 264 -0.20 18.42 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.08 3.29 3.28 48 -0.22 -0.17 5.35 5.37 72 -0.25 -0.20 7.66 7.64 96 -0.27 10.22 120 -0.33 13.12 144 -0.40 16.03 168 -0.51 18.81 192 -0.57 21.03 216 -0.57 22.96 240 -0.50 24.96 264 -0.50 26.53 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 0.09 3.00 2.81 0.98 0.98 22.7 23.1 48 -0.41 -0.12 4.26 4.19 0.96 0.97 29.4 30.0 72 -0.59 -0.37 5.23 5.27 0.94 0.95 34.1 34.7 96 -0.57 6.07 0.93 38.4 120 -0.79 6.92 0.91 41.6 144 -1.10 7.82 0.88 44.8 168 -1.52 8.86 0.84 47.7 192 -1.84 10.06 0.80 50.5 216 -1.96 11.07 0.76 53.0 240 -2.42 12.32 0.72 55.2 264 -2.01 13.00 0.69 56.8 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.09 -1.01 4.38 4.36 0.99 0.99 20.1 20.5 48 -3.41 -3.30 7.36 7.37 0.97 0.97 27.3 27.9 72 -5.08 -4.81 9.71 9.64 0.96 0.96 32.3 33.0 96 -6.05 11.75 0.94 37.2 120 -7.24 14.07 0.91 41.3 144 -8.35 16.42 0.88 45.0 168 -9.47 18.54 0.85 48.4 192 -10.24 20.25 0.81 51.8 216 -10.53 21.74 0.77 54.9 240 -11.29 24.17 0.71 58.5 264 -11.21 26.19 0.65 61.9 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.09 0.39 0.42 0.96 0.97 48 -0.11 -0.11 0.60 0.62 0.91 0.92 72 -0.13 -0.12 0.74 0.75 0.87 0.89 96 -0.13 0.86 0.85 120 -0.13 0.94 0.81 144 -0.13 1.04 0.77 168 -0.15 1.13 0.73 192 -0.15 1.22 0.69 216 -0.16 1.30 0.65 240 -0.16 1.39 0.59 264 -0.18 1.50 0.54 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.28 0.41 0.43 0.95 0.96 48 -0.43 -0.46 0.63 0.65 0.90 0.92 72 -0.52 -0.55 0.76 0.79 0.86 0.88 96 -0.60 0.87 0.84 120 -0.63 0.93 0.81 144 -0.65 0.99 0.78 168 -0.67 1.05 0.74 192 -0.68 1.10 0.69 216 -0.68 1.16 0.65 240 -0.69 1.21 0.61 264 -0.71 1.25 0.58 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.07 1.38 1.38 48 -0.17 -0.14 2.04 2.03 72 -0.18 -0.17 2.51 2.50 96 -0.18 2.84 120 -0.16 3.19 144 -0.15 3.54 168 -0.13 3.85 192 -0.13 4.17 216 -0.15 4.48 240 -0.12 4.75 264 -0.08 4.99 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.31 3.01 3.02 48 -0.48 -0.46 4.51 4.49 72 -0.56 -0.53 5.51 5.52 96 -0.60 6.38 120 -0.62 7.19 144 -0.61 7.91 168 -0.57 8.57 192 -0.50 9.29 216 -0.45 9.97 240 -0.47 10.72 264 -0.46 11.54 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.03 0.77 0.76 1.00 0.99 13.1 13.5 48 -0.09 -0.06 1.44 1.45 0.98 0.98 22.1 22.7 72 -0.10 -0.08 2.28 2.24 0.96 0.95 30.8 31.3 96 -0.07 3.16 0.91 39.0 120 -0.03 4.10 0.84 46.1 144 0.00 4.98 0.77 52.2 168 0.02 5.93 0.68 57.6 192 0.05 6.69 0.58 61.7 216 0.10 7.35 0.49 64.8 240 0.12 8.00 0.40 67.9 264 0.16 8.44 0.34 69.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.30 1.27 6.97 6.99 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.7 48 1.93 1.93 13.66 14.02 0.99 0.99 17.2 17.4 72 2.60 2.63 22.69 22.58 0.97 0.97 25.1 24.9 96 3.32 33.08 0.93 32.3 120 4.03 43.95 0.87 39.2 144 4.65 53.59 0.81 44.9 168 5.05 63.67 0.74 49.8 192 5.61 72.58 0.66 54.1 216 6.11 79.96 0.59 57.3 240 6.21 88.32 0.50 60.8 264 6.64 95.76 0.41 63.1 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.43 0.29 9.07 9.08 1.00 1.00 8.8 8.8 48 -0.07 -0.22 18.24 18.78 0.99 0.99 15.4 15.5 72 -0.69 -0.83 30.86 30.68 0.97 0.97 22.9 22.7 96 -1.24 45.66 0.93 30.0 120 -1.29 60.96 0.87 36.7 144 -1.57 75.07 0.80 42.5 168 -2.33 89.35 0.73 47.8 192 -2.57 101.21 0.65 51.9 216 -2.53 111.56 0.58 55.1 240 -2.64 123.49 0.50 58.7 264 -2.42 134.54 0.40 61.5 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.06 0.46 0.46 0.99 0.99 48 0.09 0.09 0.86 0.87 0.97 0.97 72 0.10 0.10 1.30 1.29 0.92 0.92 96 0.11 1.76 0.86 120 0.13 2.21 0.77 144 0.12 2.59 0.68 168 0.11 2.90 0.60 192 0.12 3.20 0.52 216 0.12 3.43 0.45 240 0.11 3.64 0.39 264 0.12 3.88 0.31 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.17 0.59 0.59 0.98 0.99 48 -0.28 -0.30 1.05 1.05 0.95 0.95 72 -0.41 -0.43 1.54 1.52 0.89 0.90 96 -0.54 2.03 0.81 120 -0.63 2.46 0.73 144 -0.71 2.85 0.63 168 -0.78 3.14 0.56 192 -0.85 3.41 0.49 216 -0.88 3.62 0.42 240 -0.90 3.82 0.35 264 -0.91 3.99 0.30 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.16 2.01 2.02 48 -0.25 -0.27 3.56 3.65 72 -0.33 -0.35 5.24 5.19 96 -0.43 6.79 120 -0.46 8.36 144 -0.49 9.70 168 -0.58 10.91 192 -0.63 11.88 216 -0.63 12.70 240 -0.64 13.60 264 -0.63 14.37 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.13 3.05 3.07 48 -0.26 -0.23 5.28 5.42 72 -0.36 -0.33 7.83 7.79 96 -0.40 10.33 120 -0.46 12.85 144 -0.47 15.14 168 -0.51 17.15 192 -0.52 18.49 216 -0.41 19.96 240 -0.34 21.42 264 -0.32 22.69 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.08 -2.72 7.96 8.69 0.99 0.99 48 -2.74 -3.61 12.45 13.24 0.99 0.99 72 -3.68 -4.79 19.90 19.61 0.97 0.97 96 -7.01 28.59 0.93 120 -12.23 40.35 0.86 144 -17.48 52.64 0.79 168 -16.82 62.29 0.68 192 -11.54 64.83 0.61 216 -6.41 67.51 0.57 240 -6.57 73.17 0.46 264 -6.93 78.59 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.60 -6.61 11.57 12.18 0.99 0.99 48 -7.22 -8.45 19.05 19.36 0.99 0.99 72 -7.01 -9.57 29.60 29.08 0.98 0.98 96 -10.25 41.54 0.96 120 -16.07 64.63 0.88 144 -24.62 90.35 0.80 168 -27.34 105.97 0.74 192 -23.20 113.58 0.70 216 -15.86 117.96 0.64 240 -15.50 131.01 0.55 264 -14.31 143.21 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.22 -8.31 14.95 15.59 0.99 0.99 48 -10.11 -11.19 24.95 25.58 0.99 0.99 72 -10.08 -13.35 37.62 38.51 0.98 0.99 96 -14.25 57.41 0.96 120 -19.63 88.83 0.90 144 -29.83 123.45 0.83 168 -35.39 147.67 0.77 192 -33.89 162.92 0.72 216 -27.04 170.93 0.66 240 -24.59 191.32 0.55 264 -17.33 211.03 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.39 1.66 1.82 0.95 0.95 48 -0.26 -0.41 1.96 2.12 0.96 0.96 72 -0.19 -0.40 2.46 2.55 0.95 0.96 96 -0.28 3.11 0.94 120 -0.33 4.02 0.89 144 -0.57 5.36 0.82 168 -0.71 6.35 0.76 192 -0.73 6.91 0.72 216 -0.38 7.05 0.69 240 -0.06 7.91 0.60 264 0.11 8.60 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.07 0.92 0.96 0.97 0.97 48 -0.11 -0.13 1.23 1.27 0.97 0.97 72 -0.05 -0.13 1.67 1.66 0.96 0.96 96 -0.06 2.20 0.94 120 -0.06 3.18 0.87 144 -0.23 4.26 0.80 168 -0.39 4.93 0.73 192 -0.56 5.29 0.69 216 -0.57 5.66 0.62 240 -0.57 6.25 0.54 264 -0.37 6.85 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.10 1.03 1.02 0.95 0.95 48 0.07 0.08 1.34 1.36 0.95 0.95 72 0.02 0.05 1.69 1.68 0.92 0.92 96 0.03 2.06 0.88 120 0.07 2.70 0.80 144 0.12 3.40 0.73 168 0.19 3.81 0.65 192 0.23 3.98 0.57 216 0.18 4.15 0.58 240 0.43 4.38 0.57 264 0.63 4.40 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.05 -1.14 4.02 4.21 48 -1.15 -1.31 4.64 4.84 72 -1.15 -1.35 5.55 5.69 96 -1.29 6.84 120 -1.30 8.36 144 -1.26 10.14 168 -1.15 11.37 192 -0.94 12.04 216 -1.23 12.50 240 -1.51 13.29 264 -1.23 13.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.66 4.41 4.37 48 -0.79 -0.73 5.62 5.63 72 -0.81 -0.75 7.58 7.29 96 -0.74 9.18 120 -0.38 12.25 144 -0.29 15.56 168 0.17 17.93 192 0.00 19.19 216 -0.37 19.86 240 -0.54 21.15 264 -0.14 22.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.81 5.74 5.60 48 -1.15 -0.98 7.69 7.66 72 -1.08 -1.05 9.92 10.07 96 -1.00 12.84 120 -0.50 17.37 144 -0.39 21.75 168 0.10 25.13 192 0.35 28.41 216 0.03 30.00 240 -0.14 31.52 264 0.31 34.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.59 -6.50 10.54 11.91 0.98 0.98 48 -5.17 -7.26 14.55 15.46 0.98 0.98 72 -6.38 -7.72 20.96 21.64 0.97 0.97 96 -6.41 29.85 0.92 120 -2.26 40.44 0.90 144 -7.91 48.59 0.86 168 -13.05 62.28 0.80 192 -17.37 77.10 0.72 216 -10.25 85.44 0.69 240 4.28 88.12 0.68 264 12.86 104.29 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.60 -11.28 14.23 15.58 0.99 0.99 48 -11.02 -12.86 19.81 21.37 0.99 0.98 72 -12.92 -13.58 28.84 29.82 0.97 0.97 96 -14.21 41.67 0.95 120 -11.31 58.22 0.89 144 -18.10 70.65 0.88 168 -27.12 91.18 0.85 192 -32.11 119.80 0.77 216 -29.64 136.07 0.74 240 -17.41 140.17 0.70 264 0.21 152.69 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 56 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.64 -13.97 18.09 20.52 0.99 0.99 48 -13.99 -16.29 26.86 28.03 0.99 0.99 72 -17.23 -18.08 40.40 41.61 0.98 0.98 96 -22.91 58.41 0.96 120 -21.71 80.05 0.89 144 -31.32 99.36 0.89 168 -45.61 130.93 0.85 192 -50.68 169.48 0.76 216 -47.89 190.51 0.73 240 -32.95 199.33 0.69 264 -4.95 211.59 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.33 1.39 1.41 0.87 0.86 48 -0.49 -0.36 1.55 1.59 0.89 0.89 72 -0.53 -0.43 1.84 1.86 0.88 0.87 96 -0.48 2.24 0.83 120 -0.51 2.64 0.80 144 -0.57 2.98 0.80 168 -0.77 3.28 0.78 192 -0.98 3.97 0.69 216 -1.42 4.57 0.63 240 -1.73 4.80 0.59 264 -1.52 4.97 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.27 0.96 0.99 0.96 0.95 48 -0.30 -0.29 1.26 1.30 0.96 0.95 72 -0.33 -0.27 1.68 1.77 0.92 0.92 96 -0.48 2.23 0.90 120 -0.54 2.78 0.83 144 -0.61 3.21 0.82 168 -0.86 4.03 0.78 192 -0.87 4.88 0.69 216 -0.99 5.11 0.69 240 -1.12 5.56 0.63 264 -0.29 5.91 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.29 0.26 1.12 1.09 0.92 0.91 48 0.10 0.08 1.31 1.38 0.91 0.90 72 0.00 -0.07 1.69 1.72 0.87 0.84 96 -0.14 2.16 0.81 120 -0.35 2.62 0.73 144 -0.59 2.99 0.71 168 -0.79 3.53 0.65 192 -0.91 4.09 0.51 216 -0.55 4.11 0.52 240 -0.29 4.13 0.55 264 -0.57 4.15 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.75 4.41 4.43 48 -0.95 -0.90 4.96 5.04 72 -0.94 -0.72 5.76 5.69 96 -0.75 6.60 120 -1.07 7.89 144 -1.22 8.92 168 -1.23 10.12 192 -1.30 11.51 216 -1.46 12.03 240 -1.53 12.68 264 -1.53 13.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.43 4.72 4.73 48 -0.58 -0.51 5.79 5.80 72 -0.66 -0.59 7.31 7.37 96 -0.69 9.11 120 -0.92 11.85 144 -1.42 13.34 168 -1.55 15.52 192 -1.73 18.33 216 -1.87 19.96 240 -1.46 21.17 264 -1.32 22.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.42 5.66 5.25 48 -0.35 -0.13 7.03 7.03 72 -0.26 -0.18 9.56 9.40 96 -0.36 12.19 120 -0.63 16.24 144 -1.38 18.68 168 -1.85 22.55 192 -2.54 26.92 216 -3.19 29.82 240 -2.22 33.48 264 -1.70 34.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 -0.59 12.09 11.72 0.95 0.95 48 2.16 0.92 15.68 14.76 0.96 0.96 72 3.08 1.86 18.71 18.44 0.96 0.95 96 1.61 22.59 0.95 120 1.32 27.35 0.93 144 1.34 31.40 0.92 168 0.82 37.99 0.90 192 2.24 43.40 0.87 216 3.02 50.77 0.82 240 2.64 54.37 0.79 264 2.67 62.66 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.71 13.66 14.19 0.97 0.97 48 1.65 1.46 18.18 17.90 0.97 0.97 72 2.76 2.79 23.56 23.66 0.97 0.97 96 2.03 30.06 0.96 120 1.50 39.09 0.94 144 0.95 47.89 0.93 168 -0.17 58.09 0.90 192 0.34 66.14 0.87 216 1.88 75.65 0.85 240 2.29 83.36 0.83 264 4.68 91.01 0.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 128 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.15 -3.87 20.29 20.64 0.97 0.97 48 -4.90 -4.50 24.64 24.50 0.98 0.98 72 -4.98 -4.30 31.00 31.23 0.97 0.97 96 -6.54 39.96 0.97 120 -6.46 50.06 0.96 144 -7.71 61.00 0.95 168 -10.27 76.05 0.92 192 -11.30 88.25 0.89 216 -8.63 96.87 0.86 240 -7.32 110.48 0.82 264 -5.37 121.42 0.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 127 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.06 1.77 1.77 0.87 0.88 48 0.11 0.06 1.96 1.95 0.90 0.90 72 0.15 0.11 2.18 2.16 0.90 0.90 96 0.10 2.42 0.90 120 0.09 2.77 0.89 144 0.03 3.26 0.87 168 -0.08 3.69 0.85 192 -0.06 4.05 0.82 216 0.03 4.34 0.80 240 0.22 4.81 0.77 264 0.39 5.20 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.22 1.21 1.25 0.92 0.92 48 -0.20 -0.27 1.40 1.45 0.94 0.94 72 -0.22 -0.30 1.65 1.72 0.93 0.93 96 -0.35 2.04 0.92 120 -0.37 2.40 0.90 144 -0.39 2.74 0.89 168 -0.44 3.26 0.86 192 -0.49 3.62 0.82 216 -0.47 3.84 0.77 240 -0.48 4.27 0.73 264 -0.36 4.45 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.17 1.34 1.35 0.89 0.90 48 -0.13 -0.04 1.57 1.56 0.91 0.91 72 -0.21 -0.13 1.87 1.87 0.90 0.90 96 -0.14 2.16 0.89 120 -0.09 2.46 0.88 144 -0.13 2.75 0.84 168 -0.16 3.02 0.79 192 -0.18 3.24 0.75 216 -0.24 3.45 0.70 240 -0.23 3.74 0.65 264 -0.32 4.02 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.97 3.99 3.91 48 -1.00 -1.10 4.41 4.30 72 -0.98 -1.06 4.83 4.79 96 -1.09 5.30 120 -1.13 5.91 144 -1.15 6.44 168 -1.17 7.04 192 -1.21 7.66 216 -1.39 8.04 240 -1.64 8.18 264 -1.40 8.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.53 4.87 5.12 48 -0.65 -0.64 5.69 6.03 72 -0.60 -0.61 6.80 7.15 96 -0.64 8.27 120 -0.59 9.51 144 -0.52 10.64 168 -0.70 11.77 192 -1.01 12.75 216 -1.42 13.68 240 -1.55 14.12 264 -1.41 15.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 149 12 UTC = 146 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.67 5.04 5.00 48 -1.06 -0.94 5.95 5.81 72 -1.11 -1.03 7.09 7.06 96 -1.12 8.34 120 -1.14 9.78 144 -1.11 11.50 168 -1.28 13.58 192 -1.68 15.30 216 -2.03 16.58 240 -2.01 17.88 264 -1.89 19.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 145 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.69 -3.13 7.07 8.32 0.96 0.94 48 -2.03 -2.01 8.83 10.88 0.97 0.96 72 -2.76 -2.88 12.07 14.87 0.96 0.94 96 -4.30 20.18 0.93 120 -6.89 26.38 0.86 144 -8.13 33.24 0.81 168 -7.91 39.42 0.76 192 -6.47 43.15 0.67 216 -4.83 46.62 0.58 240 -5.36 48.34 0.53 264 -7.01 50.66 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.82 -9.23 11.17 12.96 0.97 0.97 48 -6.72 -7.89 12.40 14.59 0.98 0.98 72 -7.76 -8.35 16.24 19.36 0.97 0.97 96 -9.83 28.26 0.93 120 -14.50 36.65 0.89 144 -16.84 45.53 0.86 168 -17.03 54.41 0.77 192 -15.48 61.26 0.62 216 -13.09 70.00 0.54 240 -15.38 69.42 0.50 264 -19.36 75.02 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.99 -10.60 13.29 16.43 0.97 0.97 48 -7.81 -9.34 17.78 19.93 0.98 0.98 72 -9.84 -10.97 24.87 27.55 0.97 0.97 96 -14.66 40.82 0.92 120 -23.49 53.40 0.88 144 -26.59 63.11 0.87 168 -28.15 73.27 0.83 192 -28.08 87.00 0.63 216 -21.09 100.92 0.54 240 -26.84 105.17 0.49 264 -33.27 116.51 0.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.51 1.30 1.29 0.82 0.86 48 -0.34 -0.44 1.39 1.39 0.89 0.90 72 -0.33 -0.39 1.52 1.56 0.90 0.90 96 -0.41 1.87 0.85 120 -0.53 2.07 0.86 144 -0.65 2.42 0.80 168 -0.84 2.91 0.73 192 -0.76 3.27 0.66 216 -0.76 3.61 0.63 240 -0.73 3.69 0.58 264 -0.95 4.02 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 -0.02 0.83 0.80 0.83 0.84 48 0.19 0.00 0.96 0.96 0.86 0.91 72 0.19 -0.03 1.10 1.29 0.87 0.88 96 -0.04 1.46 0.84 120 -0.20 1.67 0.80 144 -0.23 1.89 0.76 168 -0.18 2.11 0.69 192 -0.26 2.37 0.61 216 -0.11 2.73 0.60 240 -0.27 2.93 0.52 264 -0.40 3.07 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.13 0.87 0.98 0.89 0.83 48 -0.21 -0.21 1.01 1.13 0.91 0.91 72 -0.32 -0.28 1.21 1.37 0.89 0.89 96 -0.45 1.67 0.86 120 -0.57 1.91 0.77 144 -0.58 2.16 0.77 168 -0.74 2.34 0.69 192 -0.78 2.34 0.74 216 -0.64 2.62 0.73 240 -0.77 2.81 0.65 264 -0.81 2.96 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.89 4.07 4.25 48 -1.00 -0.91 4.48 4.41 72 -1.08 -0.80 5.01 4.87 96 -0.92 5.68 120 -0.89 6.38 144 -1.04 7.16 168 -1.40 7.81 192 -1.57 8.68 216 -1.74 9.10 240 -1.63 9.70 264 -1.47 10.08 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.50 3.99 4.06 48 -0.95 -0.59 4.69 4.75 72 -1.04 -0.47 5.46 5.95 96 -0.54 7.09 120 -0.47 7.59 144 -0.68 9.02 168 -1.01 10.01 192 -1.04 10.84 216 -1.07 12.22 240 -1.01 12.28 264 -1.03 13.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -0.76 5.56 5.82 48 -1.03 -0.64 6.69 6.83 72 -1.09 -0.45 8.04 8.56 96 -0.35 11.21 120 -0.42 12.17 144 -0.43 13.80 168 -0.79 15.31 192 -0.55 16.34 216 -0.05 19.65 240 -0.13 20.14 264 0.27 21.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.26 -1.57 8.46 9.27 0.73 0.73 48 -1.31 -1.64 8.76 9.67 0.82 0.82 72 -1.83 -2.33 9.24 10.16 0.83 0.83 96 -3.10 10.60 0.83 120 -4.22 11.14 0.83 144 -4.48 11.69 0.82 168 -4.53 12.49 0.80 192 -4.61 13.72 0.74 216 -4.79 14.81 0.68 240 -5.34 15.69 0.63 264 -4.52 16.12 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.07 -4.39 10.66 11.28 0.62 0.59 48 -4.22 -4.42 10.96 11.91 0.76 0.72 72 -4.84 -5.09 11.58 12.61 0.80 0.75 96 -5.88 13.14 0.77 120 -7.03 13.71 0.75 144 -7.30 14.39 0.75 168 -7.40 15.24 0.74 192 -7.55 16.17 0.70 216 -8.10 17.45 0.65 240 -8.96 18.40 0.63 264 -8.24 18.42 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.31 -6.38 13.61 13.70 0.66 0.67 48 -7.83 -7.82 14.81 15.18 0.77 0.78 72 -9.14 -9.12 16.14 16.56 0.81 0.82 96 -10.30 18.12 0.81 120 -11.78 19.48 0.79 144 -12.40 20.65 0.78 168 -12.71 21.80 0.76 192 -13.17 22.97 0.73 216 -13.84 24.46 0.70 240 -14.93 26.42 0.65 264 -14.05 26.47 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.24 0.99 1.02 0.49 0.52 48 -0.18 -0.22 1.02 1.05 0.62 0.63 72 -0.16 -0.20 1.07 1.08 0.67 0.68 96 -0.18 1.13 0.70 120 -0.18 1.17 0.71 144 -0.19 1.18 0.72 168 -0.22 1.22 0.69 192 -0.26 1.31 0.65 216 -0.29 1.40 0.59 240 -0.32 1.48 0.55 264 -0.36 1.56 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.08 0.75 0.74 0.55 0.55 48 0.05 0.08 0.78 0.77 0.62 0.65 72 0.04 0.09 0.82 0.81 0.64 0.68 96 0.08 0.85 0.68 120 0.07 0.88 0.70 144 0.07 0.90 0.69 168 0.06 0.94 0.65 192 0.08 1.00 0.62 216 0.06 1.04 0.61 240 0.03 1.07 0.61 264 0.04 1.12 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.40 0.69 0.68 0.59 0.61 48 -0.54 -0.54 0.83 0.82 0.64 0.68 72 -0.59 -0.59 0.88 0.89 0.65 0.70 96 -0.61 0.93 0.69 120 -0.63 0.97 0.67 144 -0.65 1.00 0.67 168 -0.66 1.04 0.66 192 -0.67 1.09 0.65 216 -0.69 1.13 0.66 240 -0.71 1.17 0.66 264 -0.69 1.17 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.58 3.71 3.67 48 -0.60 -0.66 4.10 4.00 72 -0.61 -0.66 4.42 4.26 96 -0.66 4.49 120 -0.74 4.65 144 -0.76 4.87 168 -0.76 5.13 192 -0.77 5.38 216 -0.73 5.69 240 -0.65 5.93 264 -0.47 6.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.88 3.78 3.78 48 -0.86 -0.95 4.13 4.11 72 -0.88 -0.97 4.35 4.42 96 -1.05 4.64 120 -1.13 4.92 144 -1.14 5.31 168 -1.19 5.69 192 -1.21 5.99 216 -1.13 6.35 240 -1.17 6.63 264 -1.04 6.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.19 -0.99 4.71 4.82 48 -1.30 -1.15 5.56 5.64 72 -1.40 -1.31 6.20 6.23 96 -1.33 6.76 120 -1.38 7.28 144 -1.37 7.90 168 -1.41 8.47 192 -1.44 8.86 216 -1.48 9.53 240 -1.50 9.97 264 -1.43 10.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.55 -2.48 10.66 11.09 0.98 0.98 48 -1.61 -2.60 14.81 14.89 0.98 0.98 72 -1.69 -2.65 20.38 20.19 0.97 0.97 96 -2.76 27.35 0.95 120 -3.52 36.34 0.92 144 -4.97 44.79 0.89 168 -5.35 54.18 0.85 192 -4.19 61.59 0.82 216 -2.26 69.26 0.77 240 -0.46 73.63 0.74 264 -1.03 83.73 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 389 12 UTC = 379 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.85 -4.58 13.39 13.92 0.98 0.99 48 -4.09 -5.08 19.18 19.36 0.98 0.98 72 -4.25 -5.16 27.71 27.44 0.98 0.98 96 -5.33 37.76 0.96 120 -6.54 53.27 0.93 144 -9.31 69.49 0.89 168 -10.96 84.03 0.85 192 -10.08 96.24 0.81 216 -8.27 106.78 0.78 240 -6.54 114.98 0.74 264 -5.08 126.37 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.58 -6.58 19.08 19.75 0.99 0.99 48 -7.43 -8.65 25.90 26.15 0.99 0.99 72 -8.58 -9.76 36.63 36.66 0.98 0.98 96 -11.01 51.10 0.97 120 -12.15 71.23 0.94 144 -16.01 93.79 0.90 168 -19.83 115.41 0.86 192 -19.99 133.16 0.81 216 -18.35 146.46 0.77 240 -15.77 159.75 0.72 264 -11.47 173.54 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 389 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.23 1.65 1.68 0.91 0.91 48 -0.17 -0.20 1.87 1.90 0.94 0.94 72 -0.15 -0.20 2.21 2.22 0.93 0.93 96 -0.18 2.62 0.92 120 -0.21 3.15 0.89 144 -0.28 3.87 0.87 168 -0.36 4.44 0.83 192 -0.40 4.86 0.80 216 -0.39 5.18 0.77 240 -0.32 5.79 0.71 264 -0.23 6.23 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 409 12 UTC = 395 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.16 1.08 1.10 0.95 0.95 48 -0.16 -0.21 1.33 1.35 0.96 0.96 72 -0.18 -0.23 1.70 1.73 0.95 0.95 96 -0.26 2.17 0.93 120 -0.27 2.73 0.90 144 -0.34 3.34 0.86 168 -0.41 3.95 0.82 192 -0.44 4.38 0.76 216 -0.47 4.66 0.73 240 -0.48 5.10 0.68 264 -0.33 5.44 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 439 12 UTC = 426 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.20 1.24 1.22 0.92 0.93 48 0.07 0.09 1.50 1.50 0.93 0.93 72 0.01 0.01 1.87 1.84 0.91 0.91 96 -0.02 2.21 0.89 120 -0.04 2.63 0.85 144 -0.09 3.06 0.81 168 -0.15 3.45 0.76 192 -0.21 3.73 0.71 216 -0.21 3.91 0.68 240 -0.18 4.10 0.65 264 -0.18 4.27 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 432 12 UTC = 419 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.94 4.06 4.06 48 -0.96 -1.05 4.60 4.60 72 -0.95 -1.01 5.31 5.30 96 -1.04 6.14 120 -1.12 7.17 144 -1.17 8.22 168 -1.18 9.14 192 -1.19 10.01 216 -1.34 10.54 240 -1.49 11.01 264 -1.36 11.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 384 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.61 4.60 4.67 48 -0.72 -0.69 5.67 5.74 72 -0.73 -0.69 7.20 7.19 96 -0.71 8.74 120 -0.68 10.75 144 -0.74 12.73 168 -0.80 14.44 192 -1.05 15.83 216 -1.29 17.02 240 -1.37 17.82 264 -1.28 19.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 430 12 UTC = 412 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.56 5.11 4.97 48 -0.77 -0.67 6.48 6.38 72 -0.75 -0.70 8.42 8.35 96 -0.76 10.61 120 -0.75 13.59 144 -0.78 16.54 168 -0.94 19.26 192 -1.18 21.85 216 -1.52 23.74 240 -1.44 25.54 264 -1.30 27.31 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 429 12 UTC = 410 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.12 -3.50 8.50 8.73 0.96 0.96 48 -1.97 -3.61 10.29 11.06 0.97 0.97 72 -2.49 -4.57 13.15 14.18 0.96 0.96 96 -5.53 19.35 0.94 120 -6.68 25.42 0.89 144 -7.76 30.47 0.86 168 -7.78 35.80 0.81 192 -7.73 41.63 0.74 216 -7.72 45.05 0.71 240 -8.88 48.85 0.67 264 -7.22 50.18 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.20 -8.05 12.15 12.83 0.97 0.97 48 -6.29 -7.56 13.86 15.15 0.98 0.98 72 -6.47 -7.84 18.00 19.84 0.97 0.97 96 -8.84 27.61 0.94 120 -10.59 36.41 0.90 144 -11.64 42.91 0.86 168 -11.33 51.55 0.78 192 -10.77 58.88 0.71 216 -11.08 66.79 0.63 240 -12.36 70.14 0.62 264 -11.18 74.03 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.35 -9.65 14.94 16.20 0.97 0.98 48 -8.42 -10.53 19.38 20.96 0.97 0.98 72 -9.79 -12.31 26.63 28.85 0.97 0.97 96 -15.22 39.87 0.95 120 -18.87 53.14 0.91 144 -19.79 61.57 0.87 168 -20.29 74.37 0.80 192 -20.19 85.42 0.72 216 -20.15 96.54 0.64 240 -23.44 102.48 0.63 264 -23.56 109.87 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.56 1.54 1.40 0.87 0.86 48 -0.64 -0.57 1.63 1.53 0.91 0.90 72 -0.60 -0.53 1.73 1.64 0.91 0.91 96 -0.54 1.86 0.90 120 -0.56 2.12 0.87 144 -0.58 2.42 0.80 168 -0.58 2.81 0.72 192 -0.60 3.11 0.68 216 -0.56 3.27 0.64 240 -0.55 3.46 0.60 264 -0.60 3.74 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.10 0.92 0.90 0.86 0.91 48 0.15 0.11 1.07 1.04 0.89 0.92 72 0.16 0.10 1.26 1.32 0.89 0.90 96 0.06 1.66 0.87 120 0.02 1.99 0.83 144 0.04 2.21 0.78 168 0.04 2.48 0.74 192 0.04 2.79 0.66 216 0.04 2.99 0.61 240 0.04 3.14 0.60 264 -0.04 3.29 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.15 0.97 1.04 0.90 0.91 48 -0.24 -0.28 1.14 1.30 0.91 0.92 72 -0.38 -0.42 1.43 1.67 0.89 0.88 96 -0.51 2.10 0.83 120 -0.62 2.44 0.79 144 -0.66 2.78 0.72 168 -0.69 3.03 0.68 192 -0.68 3.20 0.67 216 -0.69 3.37 0.65 240 -0.77 3.49 0.63 264 -0.80 3.60 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -1.11 4.16 4.21 48 -0.92 -1.17 4.53 4.52 72 -0.95 -1.21 5.08 4.95 96 -1.27 5.66 120 -1.25 6.23 144 -1.31 6.98 168 -1.30 7.74 192 -1.64 8.24 216 -1.62 8.57 240 -1.52 9.01 264 -1.68 9.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.77 4.08 4.19 48 -0.98 -0.91 4.74 4.86 72 -1.05 -1.02 5.58 5.81 96 -1.00 7.01 120 -0.96 7.88 144 -0.82 9.05 168 -0.77 10.17 192 -1.06 10.74 216 -0.91 11.58 240 -0.89 11.58 264 -0.97 12.24 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.67 5.34 5.05 48 -0.82 -0.67 6.64 6.17 72 -0.90 -0.70 8.07 7.95 96 -0.49 9.85 120 -0.40 11.61 144 -0.31 13.58 168 -0.21 15.44 192 -0.29 16.36 216 -0.15 18.54 240 -0.22 18.78 264 0.09 20.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 42 ---------------------------------------------------------