VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY FEBRUARY 2018 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.01 0.98 1.03 1.00 0.99 16.3 16.5 48 0.07 0.02 1.80 1.81 0.98 0.98 25.4 25.4 72 0.13 0.06 2.79 2.81 0.96 0.96 34.1 34.3 96 0.14 4.04 0.92 43.1 120 0.18 5.44 0.86 51.9 144 0.14 6.57 0.79 59.3 168 0.16 7.75 0.70 65.9 192 0.27 9.01 0.60 71.7 216 0.25 9.73 0.53 75.3 240 0.18 10.40 0.47 77.5 264 0.13 11.04 0.40 80.0 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.91 -1.21 7.23 7.51 1.00 1.00 9.0 9.0 48 -1.50 -1.87 15.08 15.15 0.99 0.99 16.4 16.3 72 -1.71 -2.22 25.07 25.53 0.98 0.98 24.0 24.0 96 -2.15 38.49 0.95 31.7 120 -2.37 52.65 0.91 38.8 144 -3.29 67.71 0.85 45.5 168 -3.83 82.08 0.77 51.6 192 -3.91 94.89 0.69 56.4 216 -4.52 104.08 0.63 59.6 240 -5.37 113.08 0.55 62.4 264 -6.71 120.66 0.48 64.6 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.26 -1.43 9.30 9.62 1.00 1.00 7.2 7.2 48 -2.61 -2.85 19.34 19.17 0.99 0.99 12.3 12.2 72 -3.38 -3.84 31.86 32.27 0.98 0.98 18.1 18.1 96 -4.53 49.25 0.96 24.6 120 -5.18 68.29 0.92 30.8 144 -6.71 88.57 0.86 37.0 168 -8.93 108.49 0.79 42.7 192 -10.62 125.02 0.72 47.2 216 -12.17 138.90 0.66 51.1 240 -13.00 152.37 0.58 54.3 264 -14.85 163.29 0.51 56.7 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.52 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 0.00 0.96 0.95 0.98 0.98 72 -0.01 -0.01 1.44 1.44 0.95 0.95 96 -0.02 2.00 0.90 120 -0.03 2.61 0.83 144 -0.06 3.18 0.75 168 -0.12 3.69 0.66 192 -0.20 4.13 0.57 216 -0.24 4.51 0.49 240 -0.26 4.82 0.41 264 -0.32 5.04 0.35 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 0.67 0.66 0.99 0.99 48 -0.18 -0.18 1.09 1.09 0.97 0.97 72 -0.24 -0.23 1.53 1.54 0.94 0.94 96 -0.28 2.01 0.90 120 -0.30 2.48 0.84 144 -0.32 2.94 0.78 168 -0.37 3.32 0.71 192 -0.44 3.64 0.65 216 -0.49 3.88 0.61 240 -0.47 4.07 0.57 264 -0.46 4.27 0.53 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.07 2.31 2.32 48 -0.11 -0.11 4.18 4.18 72 -0.13 -0.13 6.08 6.11 96 -0.15 8.08 120 -0.15 10.05 144 -0.14 11.91 168 -0.26 13.60 192 -0.37 14.93 216 -0.39 15.83 240 -0.42 16.77 264 -0.40 17.61 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.11 3.25 3.28 48 -0.18 -0.17 5.44 5.41 72 -0.23 -0.18 7.79 7.71 96 -0.25 10.37 120 -0.30 13.18 144 -0.32 15.94 168 -0.47 18.47 192 -0.53 20.34 216 -0.67 22.16 240 -0.64 23.89 264 -0.51 25.47 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 0.02 3.00 2.83 0.98 0.98 24.5 25.4 48 -0.49 -0.19 4.36 4.24 0.96 0.96 31.8 32.4 72 -0.74 -0.40 5.26 5.29 0.94 0.93 36.8 37.2 96 -0.63 6.16 0.91 41.7 120 -0.82 7.10 0.88 45.2 144 -0.67 8.32 0.84 48.8 168 -1.11 9.44 0.80 51.7 192 -2.02 10.64 0.76 54.5 216 -2.57 11.82 0.71 57.3 240 -2.91 12.58 0.67 59.8 264 -3.02 13.87 0.62 62.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.53 4.53 4.53 0.99 0.99 17.0 17.0 48 -2.36 -2.40 7.50 7.54 0.97 0.97 23.4 23.4 72 -3.29 -3.38 9.90 9.97 0.96 0.95 28.0 27.8 96 -4.43 12.37 0.93 31.9 120 -5.38 15.18 0.89 36.1 144 -5.87 18.16 0.84 40.3 168 -6.83 21.22 0.78 44.2 192 -8.08 23.80 0.72 47.5 216 -9.52 26.80 0.65 51.1 240 -10.70 29.86 0.58 54.3 264 -11.66 31.65 0.55 56.3 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 0.41 0.42 0.97 0.97 48 -0.12 -0.12 0.62 0.63 0.94 0.94 72 -0.12 -0.13 0.76 0.77 0.90 0.92 96 -0.14 0.89 0.89 120 -0.13 0.98 0.86 144 -0.13 1.07 0.83 168 -0.14 1.17 0.80 192 -0.14 1.29 0.75 216 -0.14 1.40 0.71 240 -0.13 1.48 0.67 264 -0.12 1.56 0.64 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.29 0.47 0.47 0.96 0.96 48 -0.44 -0.47 0.70 0.71 0.91 0.92 72 -0.51 -0.55 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.87 96 -0.61 0.97 0.83 120 -0.66 1.07 0.78 144 -0.69 1.16 0.73 168 -0.69 1.25 0.67 192 -0.68 1.31 0.63 216 -0.69 1.39 0.57 240 -0.68 1.45 0.53 264 -0.67 1.50 0.49 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 1.39 1.37 48 -0.11 -0.12 2.03 1.99 72 -0.12 -0.12 2.53 2.46 96 -0.15 2.87 120 -0.17 3.24 144 -0.19 3.58 168 -0.19 3.85 192 -0.18 4.18 216 -0.19 4.50 240 -0.22 4.77 264 -0.22 5.05 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.29 3.01 2.99 48 -0.47 -0.48 4.34 4.32 72 -0.53 -0.56 5.35 5.34 96 -0.55 6.32 120 -0.53 7.30 144 -0.56 8.35 168 -0.58 9.23 192 -0.59 10.02 216 -0.58 10.87 240 -0.55 11.51 264 -0.48 12.06 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.78 1.00 1.00 12.3 12.6 48 -0.03 -0.03 1.59 1.55 0.98 0.98 21.3 21.6 72 -0.06 -0.05 2.54 2.48 0.95 0.95 29.9 30.2 96 -0.09 3.63 0.89 39.1 120 -0.07 4.85 0.81 47.1 144 -0.09 6.03 0.70 53.9 168 -0.07 7.13 0.58 59.7 192 -0.05 7.95 0.48 63.7 216 0.04 8.56 0.39 67.1 240 0.15 8.92 0.34 68.6 264 0.23 9.12 0.32 69.0 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.17 1.15 7.33 7.32 1.00 1.00 9.5 9.5 48 1.72 1.71 15.49 15.24 0.99 0.99 17.5 17.4 72 2.11 2.11 25.98 25.75 0.96 0.96 25.8 25.6 96 2.21 39.69 0.91 34.6 120 2.54 53.98 0.84 42.5 144 2.66 68.60 0.74 49.4 168 2.81 80.70 0.63 55.2 192 2.55 91.08 0.52 59.5 216 2.87 99.33 0.42 63.0 240 3.35 103.70 0.36 64.8 264 3.66 105.53 0.34 65.8 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.21 9.66 9.54 1.00 1.00 8.8 8.6 48 -0.24 -0.20 20.07 20.12 0.99 0.99 15.5 15.5 72 -0.74 -0.66 34.26 33.95 0.96 0.96 23.2 23.1 96 -1.18 53.32 0.91 31.8 120 -1.59 73.36 0.84 39.8 144 -2.03 93.85 0.73 46.7 168 -2.74 110.62 0.62 52.5 192 -3.84 125.70 0.50 56.8 216 -4.16 137.49 0.40 60.2 240 -3.94 144.05 0.35 62.1 264 -3.39 148.29 0.32 63.5 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.05 0.47 0.47 0.99 0.99 48 0.08 0.08 0.89 0.88 0.97 0.97 72 0.09 0.09 1.35 1.34 0.92 0.92 96 0.10 1.87 0.84 120 0.09 2.42 0.74 144 0.09 2.94 0.62 168 0.07 3.35 0.50 192 0.04 3.67 0.39 216 0.01 3.89 0.32 240 0.00 4.03 0.28 264 -0.01 4.20 0.23 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.16 0.60 0.59 0.99 0.99 48 -0.26 -0.27 1.07 1.07 0.95 0.95 72 -0.35 -0.36 1.57 1.56 0.89 0.90 96 -0.43 2.09 0.81 120 -0.49 2.63 0.70 144 -0.52 3.08 0.58 168 -0.57 3.46 0.47 192 -0.61 3.70 0.40 216 -0.60 3.87 0.34 240 -0.59 4.04 0.28 264 -0.54 4.25 0.21 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.12 2.08 2.07 48 -0.21 -0.20 3.83 3.81 72 -0.27 -0.27 5.71 5.71 96 -0.35 7.77 120 -0.43 9.70 144 -0.44 11.40 168 -0.54 12.84 192 -0.64 13.94 216 -0.69 14.91 240 -0.72 15.36 264 -0.70 15.57 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.14 3.20 3.11 48 -0.20 -0.21 5.60 5.57 72 -0.28 -0.28 8.33 8.27 96 -0.39 11.52 120 -0.52 14.66 144 -0.52 17.47 168 -0.61 19.79 192 -0.72 21.57 216 -0.64 22.95 240 -0.62 23.68 264 -0.44 24.40 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.54 -1.71 8.11 8.63 0.99 0.98 48 -3.02 -2.93 12.31 12.46 0.98 0.98 72 -3.73 -5.30 17.72 18.30 0.94 0.94 96 -7.29 26.05 0.89 120 -5.92 35.17 0.84 144 -3.18 41.05 0.79 168 -4.09 50.39 0.72 192 -4.59 59.64 0.60 216 -4.17 60.64 0.55 240 -2.27 65.56 0.53 264 -3.98 67.81 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.89 -5.07 10.95 11.44 0.99 0.99 48 -7.46 -7.24 17.73 17.27 0.98 0.99 72 -7.92 -9.24 25.69 25.70 0.96 0.97 96 -11.11 37.50 0.92 120 -13.41 53.94 0.88 144 -13.41 67.90 0.83 168 -13.29 82.17 0.76 192 -11.18 97.90 0.63 216 -8.03 104.75 0.57 240 -2.90 114.76 0.53 264 -3.01 121.55 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.68 -7.28 14.94 15.82 0.99 0.99 48 -11.51 -10.11 24.78 23.90 0.99 0.99 72 -11.24 -11.07 35.44 35.78 0.97 0.97 96 -12.78 53.05 0.93 120 -17.24 79.78 0.88 144 -19.57 104.43 0.81 168 -18.10 126.58 0.76 192 -15.36 146.95 0.67 216 -12.90 157.96 0.60 240 -8.25 174.27 0.54 264 -8.04 188.16 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.38 1.62 1.84 0.94 0.94 48 -0.18 -0.39 1.92 2.10 0.95 0.95 72 -0.14 -0.40 2.24 2.45 0.92 0.92 96 -0.47 2.96 0.89 120 -0.80 3.91 0.84 144 -1.14 4.58 0.80 168 -1.08 5.17 0.80 192 -1.05 6.30 0.71 216 -0.77 6.86 0.58 240 -0.18 6.96 0.57 264 -0.10 7.60 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.10 0.94 0.97 0.97 0.96 48 -0.15 -0.12 1.24 1.23 0.97 0.97 72 -0.12 -0.08 1.60 1.66 0.94 0.94 96 -0.02 2.19 0.89 120 -0.22 3.06 0.83 144 -0.35 3.84 0.76 168 -0.28 4.39 0.70 192 -0.19 4.97 0.65 216 -0.16 5.27 0.55 240 -0.12 5.63 0.51 264 -0.08 5.89 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.06 0.98 0.98 0.95 0.94 48 -0.07 -0.05 1.24 1.21 0.93 0.93 72 -0.05 -0.04 1.52 1.50 0.90 0.90 96 -0.04 1.85 0.85 120 -0.02 2.21 0.79 144 -0.06 2.56 0.76 168 -0.04 3.02 0.70 192 0.04 3.27 0.66 216 0.00 3.26 0.68 240 0.04 3.44 0.66 264 0.14 3.62 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.04 -1.04 4.17 4.21 48 -1.05 -1.07 4.80 4.70 72 -1.08 -1.06 5.59 5.38 96 -1.20 6.38 120 -1.34 7.94 144 -1.51 8.66 168 -1.53 9.66 192 -1.41 11.38 216 -1.49 11.51 240 -1.57 11.63 264 -1.36 12.23 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.85 4.33 4.63 48 -0.82 -0.87 5.29 5.70 72 -0.76 -0.77 6.51 6.93 96 -0.64 8.76 120 -0.64 10.47 144 -0.59 12.25 168 -0.92 14.42 192 -1.36 16.39 216 -1.86 17.04 240 -2.31 17.97 264 -2.18 19.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.78 5.66 5.59 48 -1.00 -0.75 7.38 7.37 72 -0.61 -0.49 9.46 9.73 96 -0.08 12.13 120 -0.04 15.34 144 0.10 18.25 168 -0.14 22.02 192 -0.68 24.54 216 -1.14 25.72 240 -1.55 27.72 264 -1.53 30.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.13 -5.72 9.94 9.92 0.98 0.98 48 -6.30 -6.92 13.59 13.72 0.98 0.97 72 -6.83 -7.73 18.17 19.07 0.96 0.96 96 -8.01 26.63 0.93 120 -12.95 43.21 0.85 144 -16.59 57.71 0.82 168 -13.30 68.15 0.79 192 -9.99 70.44 0.80 216 -8.54 75.37 0.74 240 -6.26 76.25 0.70 264 -5.66 95.52 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.63 -7.95 13.36 12.80 0.99 0.99 48 -11.14 -10.51 19.43 18.46 0.98 0.99 72 -13.61 -13.16 27.01 27.40 0.97 0.98 96 -14.96 39.36 0.95 120 -22.64 62.77 0.87 144 -26.72 83.51 0.81 168 -20.44 103.76 0.80 192 -8.12 112.07 0.78 216 0.18 114.26 0.75 240 3.63 120.85 0.69 264 13.56 139.73 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.16 -10.08 17.14 17.48 0.99 0.99 48 -11.65 -12.91 24.22 24.11 0.99 0.99 72 -15.86 -16.73 33.70 34.06 0.97 0.98 96 -21.70 51.06 0.96 120 -29.40 77.43 0.90 144 -31.05 104.45 0.84 168 -22.56 132.53 0.83 192 -9.86 141.36 0.83 216 1.22 145.86 0.80 240 5.87 163.35 0.72 264 20.51 187.67 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.09 1.31 1.27 0.88 0.88 48 -0.43 -0.17 1.49 1.45 0.89 0.90 72 -0.57 -0.30 1.69 1.64 0.89 0.89 96 -0.38 2.00 0.84 120 -0.54 2.56 0.77 144 -0.43 3.18 0.68 168 -0.20 3.63 0.64 192 0.26 4.15 0.60 216 0.69 4.67 0.56 240 0.85 4.90 0.51 264 1.46 5.34 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.09 0.95 0.90 0.95 0.96 48 -0.16 -0.15 1.28 1.28 0.94 0.95 72 -0.25 -0.24 1.68 1.67 0.94 0.94 96 -0.37 2.41 0.89 120 -0.51 3.15 0.82 144 -0.51 3.83 0.75 168 -0.26 4.63 0.73 192 0.09 4.89 0.73 216 0.43 5.33 0.67 240 0.52 5.52 0.62 264 1.03 5.66 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.16 1.21 1.12 0.93 0.94 48 0.20 0.07 1.44 1.38 0.94 0.94 72 0.11 0.02 1.86 1.76 0.91 0.91 96 -0.14 2.43 0.83 120 0.02 3.20 0.73 144 -0.02 3.85 0.64 168 -0.22 4.50 0.61 192 -0.44 4.67 0.57 216 -0.73 4.87 0.51 240 -0.87 4.75 0.50 264 -1.01 4.93 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.83 4.05 4.04 48 -0.82 -0.94 4.66 4.60 72 -0.83 -0.90 5.32 5.20 96 -0.69 6.14 120 -0.53 7.53 144 -0.44 8.78 168 -0.62 9.95 192 -0.20 10.32 216 0.02 11.09 240 0.19 11.70 264 0.45 12.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.57 4.52 4.57 48 -0.61 -0.62 5.77 5.73 72 -0.64 -0.57 7.12 7.20 96 -0.45 9.50 120 -0.07 12.57 144 0.16 14.49 168 0.59 17.12 192 0.63 17.97 216 0.45 18.90 240 0.41 19.47 264 0.84 20.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.35 4.83 4.62 48 -0.51 -0.36 6.32 5.91 72 -0.71 -0.34 8.09 7.75 96 -0.37 10.82 120 -0.11 15.16 144 0.04 17.98 168 0.40 21.37 192 0.84 22.19 216 -0.02 24.70 240 0.12 26.57 264 0.74 28.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.84 -0.60 11.18 10.20 0.96 0.96 48 1.68 0.22 13.42 12.66 0.96 0.96 72 2.02 0.85 16.65 16.03 0.95 0.95 96 0.95 20.58 0.94 120 0.39 25.90 0.91 144 -0.42 32.04 0.86 168 -0.19 37.77 0.80 192 1.28 44.67 0.73 216 0.85 49.59 0.71 240 1.34 56.85 0.69 264 3.59 57.73 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 121 12 UTC = 120 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.91 -2.00 12.10 12.27 0.97 0.97 48 0.67 -0.49 15.55 16.15 0.98 0.97 72 1.78 1.23 20.95 22.39 0.97 0.96 96 1.62 29.97 0.94 120 0.48 36.79 0.92 144 -1.86 48.88 0.85 168 -1.16 59.22 0.77 192 1.51 69.29 0.72 216 3.77 80.11 0.66 240 3.69 89.27 0.65 264 5.91 90.30 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 130 12 UTC = 128 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.00 -4.55 18.27 18.31 0.97 0.97 48 -4.10 -4.89 22.33 23.20 0.98 0.97 72 -3.82 -3.77 28.08 29.32 0.97 0.96 96 -3.39 36.77 0.95 120 -4.27 43.68 0.94 144 -7.04 59.09 0.89 168 -7.34 73.93 0.81 192 -3.83 88.28 0.75 216 -1.81 103.64 0.68 240 -3.45 118.23 0.68 264 -2.36 124.52 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 130 12 UTC = 127 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.44 1.65 1.66 0.88 0.89 48 -0.29 -0.44 1.80 1.84 0.90 0.90 72 -0.24 -0.38 2.02 2.04 0.90 0.90 96 -0.39 2.36 0.89 120 -0.44 2.70 0.85 144 -0.52 3.12 0.80 168 -0.50 3.60 0.75 192 -0.40 4.02 0.70 216 -0.35 4.59 0.65 240 -0.36 4.99 0.63 264 -0.43 5.33 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 137 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.15 1.05 1.08 0.93 0.93 48 -0.17 -0.13 1.26 1.29 0.94 0.94 72 -0.16 -0.10 1.51 1.58 0.94 0.93 96 -0.08 1.86 0.91 120 -0.11 2.20 0.89 144 -0.18 2.63 0.84 168 -0.21 3.08 0.78 192 -0.18 3.62 0.70 216 -0.08 4.16 0.61 240 -0.12 4.62 0.58 264 -0.08 4.83 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 154 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.24 1.27 1.23 0.90 0.91 48 0.05 0.06 1.43 1.41 0.91 0.91 72 -0.02 0.00 1.69 1.68 0.90 0.90 96 0.02 1.97 0.87 120 0.06 2.30 0.85 144 0.06 2.75 0.80 168 -0.01 3.00 0.76 192 -0.02 3.34 0.72 216 0.03 3.61 0.70 240 -0.05 3.98 0.67 264 -0.19 4.15 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.88 3.74 3.74 48 -0.87 -0.99 4.09 4.10 72 -0.84 -0.97 4.57 4.56 96 -0.96 5.14 120 -0.95 5.65 144 -0.87 6.30 168 -0.85 6.81 192 -0.79 7.65 216 -0.86 8.20 240 -0.96 8.62 264 -1.02 8.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.34 4.54 4.53 48 -0.72 -0.46 5.42 5.40 72 -0.77 -0.47 6.54 6.54 96 -0.46 7.66 120 -0.39 8.86 144 -0.38 10.32 168 -0.35 11.48 192 -0.40 13.06 216 -0.36 13.97 240 -0.32 14.76 264 -0.41 15.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 148 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.68 5.13 5.33 48 -0.86 -1.02 6.30 6.42 72 -1.01 -1.09 7.61 7.79 96 -1.11 9.04 120 -0.94 10.39 144 -1.03 12.50 168 -0.99 14.55 192 -1.09 16.48 216 -1.11 18.16 240 -0.94 19.77 264 -1.37 20.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 146 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.68 -4.21 6.94 8.18 0.97 0.99 48 -1.83 -3.00 8.97 10.50 0.97 0.98 72 -1.47 -2.19 11.73 14.03 0.96 0.96 96 -2.80 17.31 0.95 120 -6.02 24.35 0.96 144 -8.50 30.02 0.92 168 -7.65 35.36 0.88 192 -4.34 41.66 0.87 216 -0.85 46.93 0.75 240 0.96 55.05 0.62 264 -0.93 54.30 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.37 -9.38 10.64 12.66 0.97 0.97 48 -6.59 -7.61 13.02 15.05 0.97 0.97 72 -6.30 -6.18 16.64 20.54 0.96 0.96 96 -4.09 25.83 0.97 120 -8.99 34.00 0.95 144 -14.46 41.91 0.91 168 -12.91 50.30 0.85 192 -13.21 62.34 0.86 216 -7.42 66.79 0.80 240 -5.91 77.32 0.68 264 -9.81 73.13 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.55 -9.37 12.97 15.15 0.97 0.98 48 -7.89 -7.77 17.31 19.37 0.98 0.98 72 -8.72 -7.01 25.31 28.77 0.96 0.97 96 -6.21 40.74 0.96 120 -12.38 54.02 0.94 144 -19.16 62.24 0.92 168 -20.67 76.82 0.84 192 -23.77 96.52 0.80 216 -18.70 101.95 0.77 240 -16.91 116.41 0.68 264 -25.13 113.64 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.34 1.28 1.27 0.87 0.89 48 -0.40 -0.30 1.37 1.37 0.90 0.92 72 -0.35 -0.26 1.55 1.62 0.90 0.89 96 -0.19 1.86 0.88 120 -0.25 2.08 0.88 144 -0.44 2.52 0.85 168 -0.36 2.79 0.76 192 -0.53 2.96 0.76 216 -0.45 3.29 0.70 240 -0.39 3.58 0.67 264 -0.27 4.01 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.01 0.89 0.82 0.85 0.91 48 0.13 0.08 1.00 1.03 0.89 0.91 72 0.14 0.08 1.13 1.21 0.89 0.90 96 0.14 1.42 0.88 120 -0.01 1.73 0.87 144 -0.14 1.81 0.88 168 -0.14 2.16 0.81 192 -0.32 2.59 0.76 216 -0.21 2.77 0.73 240 -0.18 2.93 0.67 264 -0.40 3.25 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.04 0.82 0.83 0.88 0.88 48 -0.21 -0.15 0.99 1.01 0.89 0.92 72 -0.32 -0.22 1.18 1.24 0.90 0.93 96 -0.32 1.68 0.89 120 -0.30 2.02 0.85 144 -0.33 2.33 0.78 168 -0.59 2.62 0.75 192 -0.59 2.91 0.69 216 -0.86 3.11 0.64 240 -0.90 3.16 0.59 264 -0.89 3.55 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.82 3.87 4.09 48 -0.81 -0.81 4.31 4.62 72 -0.84 -0.78 4.91 5.25 96 -0.69 6.23 120 -0.76 6.83 144 -0.70 8.02 168 -0.79 8.21 192 -0.78 8.50 216 -1.02 9.33 240 -1.44 10.12 264 -1.16 10.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -0.69 4.01 4.40 48 -1.04 -0.98 4.69 5.16 72 -1.12 -1.04 5.64 6.18 96 -0.99 7.48 120 -1.05 8.69 144 -0.83 10.09 168 -1.26 10.42 192 -1.28 11.63 216 -1.43 12.28 240 -1.53 14.00 264 -1.56 13.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.02 -1.20 5.14 5.63 48 -1.20 -1.17 6.51 6.73 72 -1.13 -0.99 8.18 8.40 96 -0.40 10.18 120 -0.50 12.58 144 -0.31 15.69 168 -1.09 16.31 192 -2.03 17.91 216 -1.67 18.99 240 -2.19 20.83 264 -1.30 20.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.00 -1.80 8.47 9.20 0.73 0.75 48 -2.33 -1.69 8.72 9.58 0.83 0.84 72 -2.52 -2.05 9.25 10.22 0.85 0.85 96 -2.58 10.63 0.85 120 -3.53 11.27 0.83 144 -3.42 12.00 0.81 168 -3.72 12.59 0.80 192 -4.23 14.16 0.76 216 -4.93 15.54 0.72 240 -5.35 16.19 0.71 264 -5.47 17.46 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.49 -5.10 11.39 11.14 0.66 0.67 48 -5.88 -5.12 11.74 11.68 0.80 0.80 72 -5.93 -5.38 12.24 12.22 0.82 0.84 96 -5.82 12.74 0.84 120 -6.76 13.62 0.82 144 -6.62 14.35 0.79 168 -7.03 15.05 0.78 192 -7.83 16.63 0.73 216 -9.10 18.57 0.63 240 -9.89 19.70 0.62 264 -10.44 20.44 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.08 -7.91 13.86 13.85 0.73 0.73 48 -8.39 -9.12 15.10 15.26 0.83 0.83 72 -8.78 -9.95 15.99 16.60 0.86 0.86 96 -10.81 17.99 0.86 120 -11.97 19.97 0.85 144 -12.24 21.18 0.85 168 -13.19 22.67 0.83 192 -14.36 24.71 0.78 216 -16.22 27.75 0.70 240 -17.52 30.89 0.63 264 -18.33 31.57 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.31 1.02 1.02 0.52 0.49 48 -0.34 -0.33 1.07 1.07 0.63 0.62 72 -0.32 -0.33 1.09 1.08 0.66 0.66 96 -0.31 1.09 0.67 120 -0.30 1.12 0.69 144 -0.28 1.17 0.72 168 -0.27 1.22 0.71 192 -0.26 1.28 0.69 216 -0.26 1.38 0.68 240 -0.27 1.44 0.68 264 -0.30 1.51 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.16 0.82 0.80 0.57 0.57 48 0.17 0.16 0.84 0.84 0.67 0.64 72 0.19 0.17 0.88 0.88 0.70 0.68 96 0.17 0.94 0.69 120 0.15 0.97 0.68 144 0.15 1.03 0.67 168 0.14 1.06 0.65 192 0.11 1.12 0.59 216 0.07 1.20 0.55 240 0.04 1.26 0.55 264 0.05 1.32 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.48 0.78 0.84 0.66 0.67 48 -0.57 -0.64 0.93 0.98 0.71 0.73 72 -0.61 -0.68 1.01 1.06 0.73 0.74 96 -0.72 1.12 0.75 120 -0.74 1.17 0.75 144 -0.76 1.24 0.74 168 -0.77 1.30 0.72 192 -0.78 1.35 0.72 216 -0.80 1.43 0.71 240 -0.79 1.48 0.70 264 -0.81 1.53 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.43 3.47 3.46 48 -0.31 -0.43 3.76 3.73 72 -0.25 -0.35 4.05 4.02 96 -0.33 4.27 120 -0.28 4.52 144 -0.27 4.66 168 -0.18 4.82 192 -0.11 5.19 216 -0.25 5.46 240 -0.40 5.65 264 -0.40 5.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -0.93 3.84 3.80 48 -1.01 -0.99 4.23 4.18 72 -1.02 -1.04 4.58 4.52 96 -1.01 4.85 120 -0.98 5.24 144 -0.95 5.59 168 -0.88 5.96 192 -0.89 6.34 216 -0.94 6.67 240 -0.93 7.05 264 -1.04 7.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.20 -1.11 4.79 4.92 48 -1.40 -1.37 5.63 5.68 72 -1.48 -1.50 6.14 6.34 96 -1.56 7.00 120 -1.76 7.65 144 -1.85 8.40 168 -1.90 8.78 192 -1.86 9.10 216 -1.87 9.76 240 -1.75 10.38 264 -1.58 10.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.01 -2.64 10.25 10.27 0.98 0.98 48 -2.39 -3.19 13.69 13.90 0.98 0.98 72 -2.78 -3.63 18.83 19.14 0.97 0.97 96 -3.93 27.01 0.94 120 -4.58 37.62 0.89 144 -4.78 46.41 0.84 168 -4.74 55.74 0.78 192 -3.87 63.82 0.71 216 -3.33 68.45 0.68 240 -2.85 73.59 0.66 264 -3.87 80.70 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 393 12 UTC = 385 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.81 -4.33 12.62 12.74 0.99 0.98 48 -4.41 -5.03 17.86 18.06 0.98 0.98 72 -4.74 -5.44 25.55 26.41 0.97 0.97 96 -5.83 38.31 0.95 120 -7.28 53.25 0.91 144 -7.99 69.18 0.85 168 -7.25 85.58 0.79 192 -4.78 97.68 0.73 216 -2.53 105.67 0.69 240 -1.23 114.34 0.67 264 -0.91 123.22 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 405 12 UTC = 398 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.43 -6.25 18.25 18.22 0.98 0.98 48 -7.10 -7.88 24.48 24.50 0.99 0.98 72 -7.73 -8.53 33.67 34.31 0.98 0.98 96 -9.54 50.11 0.95 120 -11.27 70.10 0.92 144 -12.14 91.40 0.86 168 -11.88 114.18 0.80 192 -9.61 130.58 0.75 216 -7.78 140.96 0.71 240 -6.83 156.12 0.67 264 -6.18 169.47 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 408 12 UTC = 398 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.30 1.55 1.61 0.92 0.92 48 -0.27 -0.33 1.76 1.81 0.93 0.93 72 -0.26 -0.33 2.02 2.07 0.92 0.92 96 -0.35 2.50 0.89 120 -0.43 3.08 0.85 144 -0.45 3.65 0.81 168 -0.38 4.28 0.77 192 -0.31 4.97 0.70 216 -0.24 5.41 0.65 240 -0.08 5.65 0.64 264 0.00 6.07 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 416 12 UTC = 404 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.09 1.01 1.01 0.96 0.96 48 -0.10 -0.10 1.27 1.28 0.96 0.96 72 -0.10 -0.09 1.62 1.67 0.95 0.94 96 -0.08 2.18 0.91 120 -0.12 2.81 0.86 144 -0.14 3.42 0.81 168 -0.12 4.01 0.75 192 -0.11 4.50 0.69 216 -0.06 4.84 0.64 240 -0.05 5.22 0.60 264 0.01 5.45 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 445 12 UTC = 432 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.19 1.20 1.17 0.93 0.93 48 0.10 0.05 1.44 1.40 0.93 0.93 72 0.04 0.01 1.78 1.75 0.92 0.92 96 -0.03 2.18 0.88 120 -0.03 2.65 0.84 144 -0.10 3.16 0.79 168 -0.20 3.59 0.75 192 -0.21 3.90 0.72 216 -0.27 4.08 0.71 240 -0.34 4.32 0.68 264 -0.36 4.53 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 442 12 UTC = 427 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.89 3.97 3.93 48 -0.88 -0.95 4.48 4.42 72 -0.88 -0.93 5.15 5.10 96 -0.94 5.99 120 -0.91 7.11 144 -0.85 8.01 168 -0.94 8.86 192 -0.90 9.86 216 -0.93 10.28 240 -1.00 10.59 264 -0.88 11.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 408 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.62 4.46 4.51 48 -0.75 -0.68 5.53 5.53 72 -0.77 -0.66 6.86 6.95 96 -0.61 8.65 120 -0.55 10.58 144 -0.47 12.39 168 -0.55 14.15 192 -0.73 15.57 216 -0.84 16.30 240 -0.87 17.01 264 -0.83 17.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 438 12 UTC = 420 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.57 5.06 5.12 48 -0.70 -0.68 6.54 6.48 72 -0.73 -0.69 8.35 8.41 96 -0.64 10.61 120 -0.56 13.39 144 -0.53 16.07 168 -0.65 18.83 192 -0.88 20.69 216 -1.11 22.20 240 -1.01 23.78 264 -1.02 25.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 435 12 UTC = 418 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.72 -3.13 8.44 8.50 0.98 0.98 48 -0.94 -2.89 11.10 10.75 0.97 0.98 72 -1.05 -3.09 13.91 14.63 0.96 0.97 96 -3.48 20.24 0.95 120 -3.85 28.25 0.92 144 -5.43 35.03 0.89 168 -6.30 42.37 0.81 192 -6.27 45.22 0.78 216 -5.15 51.01 0.71 240 -2.96 55.17 0.67 264 -4.44 56.08 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.50 -7.38 11.45 12.48 0.98 0.98 48 -5.50 -6.44 15.04 15.38 0.97 0.98 72 -5.17 -6.37 19.33 20.72 0.97 0.97 96 -6.53 28.25 0.96 120 -7.24 38.77 0.92 144 -8.60 48.87 0.89 168 -7.23 57.47 0.82 192 -8.13 62.97 0.78 216 -7.39 69.10 0.72 240 -5.11 80.02 0.63 264 -6.12 80.12 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.49 -7.68 15.20 15.05 0.98 0.98 48 -7.53 -7.54 20.18 20.20 0.98 0.98 72 -8.34 -9.03 28.13 28.01 0.97 0.97 96 -11.17 40.32 0.96 120 -12.93 55.80 0.93 144 -14.49 70.12 0.89 168 -13.71 82.94 0.82 192 -15.38 94.03 0.79 216 -14.84 101.90 0.72 240 -11.35 115.76 0.62 264 -11.78 115.38 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.52 1.56 1.39 0.88 0.88 48 -0.73 -0.56 1.65 1.48 0.91 0.90 72 -0.69 -0.53 1.82 1.67 0.90 0.89 96 -0.52 1.89 0.87 120 -0.54 2.23 0.85 144 -0.51 2.62 0.82 168 -0.30 3.04 0.72 192 -0.29 3.34 0.71 216 -0.31 3.61 0.67 240 -0.35 3.86 0.60 264 -0.35 3.93 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.06 0.89 0.83 0.91 0.93 48 0.09 0.09 1.05 1.03 0.92 0.93 72 0.13 0.07 1.22 1.23 0.92 0.92 96 0.05 1.54 0.90 120 0.00 2.04 0.84 144 0.01 2.37 0.82 168 0.09 2.63 0.75 192 -0.01 2.92 0.70 216 -0.02 2.97 0.67 240 0.06 3.24 0.62 264 0.06 3.43 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.16 0.93 0.94 0.91 0.93 48 -0.24 -0.27 1.16 1.18 0.90 0.93 72 -0.36 -0.36 1.38 1.46 0.91 0.92 96 -0.50 1.91 0.89 120 -0.56 2.47 0.81 144 -0.59 2.73 0.76 168 -0.80 3.06 0.71 192 -0.72 3.27 0.67 216 -0.81 3.44 0.64 240 -0.82 3.81 0.57 264 -0.77 3.95 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.83 4.25 4.17 48 -0.82 -0.81 4.60 4.53 72 -0.83 -0.81 5.21 5.05 96 -0.75 5.86 120 -0.87 6.51 144 -0.71 7.59 168 -0.68 8.25 192 -0.56 8.38 216 -0.58 8.96 240 -0.81 9.25 264 -0.66 9.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.57 3.90 4.01 48 -0.69 -0.60 4.66 4.80 72 -0.79 -0.58 5.65 5.79 96 -0.68 7.18 120 -0.74 8.40 144 -0.57 10.00 168 -0.74 11.15 192 -0.67 11.70 216 -0.53 12.57 240 -0.61 13.14 264 -0.66 12.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.63 5.25 5.08 48 -0.97 -0.59 6.65 6.33 72 -1.08 -0.53 8.33 7.83 96 -0.53 10.04 120 -0.58 12.92 144 -0.52 15.56 168 -1.08 17.06 192 -1.58 18.51 216 -0.87 19.65 240 -1.18 20.38 264 -1.32 20.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 40 ---------------------------------------------------------