VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY 2018 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.10 0.79 0.82 0.99 0.99 17.6 18.1 48 -0.16 -0.18 1.38 1.40 0.98 0.98 27.1 27.4 72 -0.21 -0.22 2.05 2.08 0.95 0.95 35.7 36.4 96 -0.26 2.93 0.90 45.5 120 -0.31 3.96 0.81 54.3 144 -0.34 5.14 0.69 63.1 168 -0.36 6.04 0.58 69.5 192 -0.34 6.75 0.48 73.8 216 -0.31 7.37 0.39 77.6 240 -0.26 7.81 0.32 79.7 264 -0.25 8.18 0.26 81.6 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.41 0.37 6.21 6.36 1.00 1.00 10.9 10.9 48 0.90 0.84 12.95 12.88 0.99 0.99 19.6 19.5 72 1.46 1.41 21.23 21.53 0.97 0.97 28.0 28.4 96 1.89 31.98 0.93 37.1 120 2.12 44.15 0.87 45.2 144 2.33 57.60 0.77 53.2 168 2.54 70.28 0.66 59.8 192 3.24 81.98 0.55 65.3 216 3.72 91.84 0.43 69.8 240 4.09 97.94 0.36 72.3 264 4.12 101.99 0.30 74.1 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.36 0.27 8.61 8.68 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.5 48 0.38 0.19 17.25 17.31 0.99 0.99 16.6 16.6 72 0.21 0.04 28.37 28.68 0.97 0.97 24.1 24.2 96 -0.25 42.74 0.94 32.2 120 -0.67 60.11 0.88 40.2 144 -0.48 79.10 0.79 48.1 168 -0.11 96.21 0.69 54.3 192 0.25 112.57 0.57 59.9 216 -0.09 127.30 0.45 64.5 240 -0.61 136.77 0.37 67.3 264 -1.31 142.85 0.31 69.1 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.10 0.48 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 0.16 0.16 0.85 0.85 0.97 0.97 72 0.20 0.19 1.27 1.27 0.94 0.94 96 0.22 1.72 0.88 120 0.23 2.23 0.80 144 0.23 2.80 0.69 168 0.25 3.26 0.57 192 0.25 3.64 0.47 216 0.24 3.96 0.37 240 0.20 4.20 0.29 264 0.17 4.34 0.24 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.19 0.67 0.66 0.98 0.98 48 -0.33 -0.33 1.12 1.12 0.94 0.94 72 -0.44 -0.43 1.59 1.59 0.88 0.88 96 -0.52 2.07 0.79 120 -0.58 2.53 0.68 144 -0.61 3.02 0.54 168 -0.62 3.35 0.43 192 -0.66 3.60 0.35 216 -0.70 3.85 0.26 240 -0.76 3.97 0.22 264 -0.79 4.02 0.20 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.12 2.11 2.11 48 -0.25 -0.26 3.73 3.72 72 -0.34 -0.36 5.37 5.42 96 -0.43 7.17 120 -0.47 8.87 144 -0.47 10.60 168 -0.45 12.12 192 -0.46 13.38 216 -0.47 14.42 240 -0.50 14.99 264 -0.51 15.40 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.16 3.37 3.33 48 -0.28 -0.31 5.49 5.50 72 -0.36 -0.39 7.80 7.89 96 -0.47 10.46 120 -0.49 13.19 144 -0.49 15.97 168 -0.51 18.22 192 -0.56 20.27 216 -0.58 21.91 240 -0.64 22.98 264 -0.70 23.67 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.25 2.66 2.74 0.98 0.98 24.7 24.6 48 0.33 0.40 3.87 3.89 0.95 0.95 31.7 31.1 72 0.27 0.35 4.77 4.83 0.92 0.93 35.9 35.4 96 0.37 5.72 0.90 38.8 120 0.19 6.51 0.88 42.0 144 0.17 7.38 0.84 44.6 168 0.05 8.29 0.80 47.1 192 -0.58 9.14 0.76 49.3 216 -0.94 9.80 0.73 51.0 240 -1.39 10.49 0.71 52.5 264 -1.90 11.21 0.67 54.0 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.29 -1.32 4.44 4.55 0.98 0.98 18.7 18.9 48 -4.21 -4.31 7.93 8.08 0.96 0.95 25.9 26.0 72 -6.78 -6.72 10.91 11.04 0.93 0.92 31.1 31.3 96 -8.63 13.48 0.89 35.6 120 -10.34 15.93 0.85 39.7 144 -11.67 18.30 0.81 43.1 168 -13.02 20.76 0.75 46.6 192 -14.48 23.21 0.69 50.1 216 -15.43 25.38 0.62 53.4 240 -16.51 27.56 0.55 56.4 264 -17.74 29.77 0.47 59.0 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.07 0.37 0.38 0.96 0.97 48 -0.09 -0.08 0.55 0.56 0.92 0.94 72 -0.10 -0.08 0.67 0.69 0.87 0.90 96 -0.08 0.78 0.87 120 -0.07 0.87 0.84 144 -0.06 0.96 0.81 168 -0.07 1.03 0.78 192 -0.07 1.12 0.75 216 -0.08 1.22 0.70 240 -0.09 1.30 0.65 264 -0.10 1.35 0.63 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.37 0.50 0.50 0.92 0.93 48 -0.60 -0.63 0.79 0.80 0.83 0.84 72 -0.75 -0.77 0.96 0.98 0.75 0.76 96 -0.87 1.10 0.70 120 -0.93 1.19 0.63 144 -0.98 1.27 0.58 168 -1.02 1.32 0.53 192 -1.05 1.37 0.48 216 -1.07 1.41 0.43 240 -1.10 1.47 0.36 264 -1.14 1.52 0.32 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.13 1.35 1.34 48 -0.25 -0.19 1.99 1.96 72 -0.27 -0.21 2.44 2.38 96 -0.23 2.71 120 -0.23 3.00 144 -0.19 3.28 168 -0.17 3.54 192 -0.12 3.80 216 -0.12 4.02 240 -0.13 4.17 264 -0.15 4.32 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.29 2.86 2.86 48 -0.44 -0.46 4.24 4.25 72 -0.50 -0.52 5.31 5.33 96 -0.49 6.21 120 -0.47 6.99 144 -0.42 7.72 168 -0.38 8.45 192 -0.33 9.22 216 -0.29 9.98 240 -0.33 10.74 264 -0.39 11.41 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.04 0.95 0.93 1.00 1.00 12.8 12.6 48 0.07 0.07 1.92 1.91 0.98 0.98 22.8 22.6 72 0.10 0.08 3.14 3.10 0.95 0.95 32.4 32.0 96 0.09 4.63 0.90 41.4 120 0.15 6.27 0.81 49.9 144 0.20 7.50 0.73 56.5 168 0.22 8.80 0.63 61.6 192 0.26 9.55 0.57 64.7 216 0.26 10.27 0.50 67.2 240 0.26 10.99 0.43 69.0 264 0.27 11.81 0.35 71.3 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.21 7.97 7.92 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.7 48 -0.68 -0.53 16.96 17.01 0.99 0.99 18.1 18.1 72 -0.95 -0.83 29.03 28.65 0.96 0.96 26.6 26.4 96 -1.17 43.54 0.91 34.8 120 -0.98 60.41 0.83 42.9 144 -0.82 75.64 0.74 49.8 168 -0.75 89.03 0.64 55.3 192 -0.29 100.03 0.56 59.3 216 -0.41 107.95 0.48 62.4 240 -0.29 116.14 0.39 64.7 264 -0.11 124.53 0.30 67.2 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.67 10.59 10.37 1.00 1.00 8.1 8.0 48 -1.83 -1.77 21.86 21.77 0.99 0.99 14.3 14.3 72 -3.21 -3.02 36.45 35.98 0.97 0.97 21.1 21.0 96 -4.32 54.88 0.92 28.6 120 -4.85 77.39 0.85 36.3 144 -4.75 98.38 0.76 42.9 168 -3.97 116.99 0.66 48.6 192 -2.71 133.47 0.57 53.1 216 -2.76 143.69 0.50 56.0 240 -2.76 156.83 0.39 59.1 264 -2.41 167.24 0.30 61.7 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.51 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 -0.01 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 72 -0.05 -0.04 1.49 1.48 0.92 0.92 96 -0.08 2.06 0.85 120 -0.09 2.68 0.75 144 -0.08 3.24 0.64 168 -0.07 3.68 0.54 192 -0.06 4.06 0.46 216 -0.07 4.32 0.37 240 -0.08 4.63 0.27 264 -0.07 4.80 0.21 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.07 0.62 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.15 -0.14 1.11 1.10 0.94 0.94 72 -0.22 -0.21 1.63 1.62 0.87 0.87 96 -0.27 2.16 0.77 120 -0.32 2.67 0.65 144 -0.35 3.08 0.54 168 -0.32 3.39 0.44 192 -0.27 3.62 0.37 216 -0.26 3.79 0.30 240 -0.25 3.88 0.26 264 -0.26 4.00 0.21 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.05 2.35 2.34 48 -0.05 -0.06 4.40 4.39 72 -0.09 -0.09 6.52 6.47 96 -0.12 8.70 120 -0.12 10.93 144 -0.09 12.98 168 0.01 14.59 192 0.02 15.85 216 -0.04 16.77 240 -0.04 17.59 264 -0.03 18.37 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.05 3.30 3.25 48 -0.15 -0.12 5.75 5.73 72 -0.24 -0.20 8.32 8.33 96 -0.24 11.42 120 -0.31 14.70 144 -0.30 17.66 168 -0.20 20.30 192 -0.11 22.62 216 -0.17 24.10 240 -0.24 25.89 264 -0.29 27.34 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.46 0.21 7.62 7.29 0.97 0.98 48 -1.61 0.66 9.88 10.26 0.97 0.97 72 0.31 1.88 13.58 14.20 0.95 0.95 96 2.25 18.93 0.92 120 1.69 26.06 0.85 144 -0.08 34.35 0.72 168 -1.48 38.12 0.67 192 -4.67 40.09 0.64 216 -2.89 45.33 0.58 240 1.69 49.13 0.60 264 3.53 51.39 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.13 -2.39 9.53 9.03 0.98 0.98 48 -2.86 -1.37 12.75 12.30 0.98 0.98 72 -1.21 -0.31 17.75 17.67 0.97 0.97 96 -0.77 26.50 0.94 120 -1.13 36.38 0.88 144 -3.94 47.50 0.82 168 -6.21 57.16 0.76 192 -11.07 67.34 0.67 216 -10.92 77.08 0.60 240 -6.80 82.27 0.63 264 -6.06 88.21 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.25 -3.33 13.15 12.71 0.98 0.98 48 -3.20 -2.42 18.69 18.39 0.98 0.98 72 -2.42 -2.37 27.91 27.65 0.97 0.97 96 -3.96 41.01 0.94 120 -3.58 56.64 0.89 144 -6.68 72.35 0.83 168 -9.67 86.95 0.78 192 -15.11 103.54 0.69 216 -17.78 120.10 0.62 240 -16.16 127.11 0.64 264 -17.73 137.34 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.61 1.53 1.69 0.91 0.91 48 -0.59 -0.66 1.80 1.93 0.92 0.92 72 -0.66 -0.74 2.08 2.20 0.92 0.91 96 -0.78 2.58 0.89 120 -0.76 3.15 0.83 144 -0.81 3.67 0.76 168 -0.97 4.27 0.69 192 -1.09 4.71 0.62 216 -1.24 5.28 0.53 240 -1.33 5.51 0.55 264 -1.33 5.81 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.13 0.84 0.86 0.93 0.93 48 0.21 0.19 1.02 1.02 0.94 0.94 72 0.22 0.17 1.24 1.27 0.93 0.93 96 0.12 1.62 0.89 120 0.17 2.09 0.83 144 0.14 2.50 0.77 168 0.10 2.84 0.74 192 0.05 3.19 0.66 216 -0.08 3.69 0.59 240 -0.14 3.75 0.61 264 -0.21 4.01 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.01 0.90 0.87 0.91 0.92 48 -0.02 -0.03 1.10 1.05 0.91 0.92 72 -0.08 -0.09 1.28 1.26 0.89 0.90 96 -0.14 1.61 0.84 120 -0.18 1.93 0.77 144 -0.23 2.20 0.72 168 -0.24 2.41 0.70 192 -0.21 2.50 0.69 216 -0.25 2.72 0.65 240 -0.40 2.75 0.62 264 -0.48 2.89 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -1.04 3.71 4.05 48 -0.57 -1.10 4.15 4.54 72 -0.69 -1.28 4.76 5.30 96 -1.38 6.13 120 -1.32 7.44 144 -1.35 8.31 168 -1.15 9.20 192 -1.13 9.48 216 -1.01 9.69 240 -1.01 10.23 264 -1.14 10.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.73 3.97 4.10 48 -0.83 -1.03 4.81 4.81 72 -0.99 -1.23 5.75 5.85 96 -1.48 7.27 120 -1.57 8.93 144 -1.58 10.41 168 -1.36 12.06 192 -1.02 13.03 216 -1.00 14.08 240 -1.06 14.54 264 -1.05 15.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.98 5.92 5.80 48 -1.09 -1.33 7.39 7.28 72 -1.29 -1.57 9.43 9.09 96 -1.97 11.57 120 -2.13 14.11 144 -2.24 16.92 168 -2.02 19.38 192 -1.63 21.23 216 -1.62 23.11 240 -1.68 23.90 264 -1.68 24.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.05 -5.48 9.14 8.88 0.96 0.96 48 -8.03 -8.52 11.87 12.22 0.97 0.97 72 -9.13 -10.04 15.68 16.32 0.94 0.94 96 -10.81 21.06 0.90 120 -13.18 27.67 0.85 144 -15.52 36.91 0.78 168 -18.13 44.03 0.69 192 -17.57 51.28 0.60 216 -20.21 59.14 0.51 240 -26.44 68.54 0.47 264 -29.79 72.62 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.21 -5.38 11.20 10.09 0.98 0.98 48 -8.16 -7.33 14.95 13.91 0.97 0.98 72 -8.62 -7.87 22.02 21.20 0.93 0.94 96 -8.72 29.64 0.90 120 -12.70 40.40 0.85 144 -17.00 54.57 0.79 168 -22.56 67.46 0.74 192 -23.98 78.79 0.67 216 -26.33 87.30 0.60 240 -34.48 102.44 0.54 264 -42.12 112.70 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.45 -5.38 16.37 14.69 0.98 0.98 48 -8.07 -6.65 21.75 19.82 0.97 0.98 72 -7.86 -6.90 31.69 29.16 0.94 0.95 96 -7.64 41.14 0.90 120 -12.50 55.22 0.86 144 -17.85 75.23 0.80 168 -23.14 91.03 0.76 192 -26.14 105.51 0.70 216 -28.94 119.90 0.63 240 -38.40 138.37 0.58 264 -47.66 154.30 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 0.04 1.11 0.98 0.90 0.89 48 -0.37 0.03 1.26 1.10 0.92 0.92 72 -0.38 0.05 1.50 1.40 0.91 0.90 96 0.03 1.74 0.86 120 -0.07 2.13 0.83 144 -0.26 2.62 0.77 168 -0.54 3.06 0.72 192 -0.70 3.40 0.70 216 -0.78 3.68 0.65 240 -0.86 4.12 0.61 264 -1.11 4.20 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.08 0.71 0.66 0.92 0.92 48 0.13 0.16 0.89 0.83 0.92 0.93 72 0.19 0.21 1.17 1.12 0.88 0.89 96 0.21 1.43 0.84 120 0.13 1.79 0.80 144 0.08 2.24 0.73 168 -0.02 2.54 0.71 192 -0.10 2.88 0.66 216 -0.12 3.15 0.61 240 -0.28 3.56 0.55 264 -0.50 3.86 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.22 1.01 0.98 0.89 0.89 48 0.19 0.20 1.25 1.19 0.87 0.89 72 0.18 0.16 1.59 1.59 0.83 0.83 96 0.21 1.87 0.77 120 0.22 2.30 0.70 144 0.25 2.56 0.66 168 0.38 2.82 0.61 192 0.31 3.05 0.57 216 0.28 3.11 0.58 240 0.49 3.36 0.53 264 0.68 3.38 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.56 3.56 3.32 48 -0.83 -0.61 3.84 3.60 72 -0.81 -0.67 4.46 4.20 96 -0.79 5.05 120 -0.99 5.78 144 -0.98 6.79 168 -0.85 7.51 192 -0.62 8.26 216 -0.34 8.93 240 -0.05 9.50 264 0.39 9.83 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.71 3.69 3.55 48 -0.70 -0.78 4.51 4.41 72 -0.55 -0.77 6.00 5.88 96 -0.73 7.48 120 -0.69 8.87 144 -0.47 10.70 168 -0.37 12.05 192 0.07 13.50 216 0.77 14.67 240 1.18 15.81 264 2.24 16.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.97 5.52 5.20 48 -0.82 -0.91 6.94 6.57 72 -0.76 -0.89 9.08 8.64 96 -0.85 11.63 120 -0.74 13.99 144 -0.39 17.34 168 -0.22 19.03 192 0.16 20.57 216 1.14 23.24 240 1.70 24.49 264 2.74 25.20 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.16 10.97 10.40 0.97 0.97 48 -0.38 -0.80 14.15 13.00 0.97 0.97 72 -2.36 -1.81 18.19 16.88 0.96 0.95 96 -3.53 21.60 0.93 120 -4.66 27.89 0.88 144 -3.94 34.39 0.82 168 -2.58 42.71 0.70 192 -0.94 49.39 0.61 216 -2.66 53.59 0.57 240 -5.51 53.84 0.56 264 -8.25 55.96 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 116 12 UTC = 116 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.21 -0.01 11.77 11.92 0.97 0.97 48 0.48 0.93 16.41 16.19 0.97 0.97 72 -0.28 1.81 22.45 22.20 0.96 0.96 96 1.12 29.37 0.94 120 0.44 38.65 0.89 144 1.46 50.32 0.82 168 3.02 61.71 0.76 192 4.85 73.32 0.68 216 1.88 80.39 0.61 240 -2.14 83.47 0.57 264 -3.79 86.80 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.23 -1.52 20.55 19.50 0.97 0.97 48 -3.98 -1.36 26.33 25.80 0.97 0.97 72 -5.98 -1.41 35.53 34.74 0.96 0.96 96 -3.73 44.81 0.93 120 -4.72 59.99 0.87 144 -1.52 75.90 0.84 168 -0.18 89.61 0.80 192 -0.86 106.76 0.73 216 -7.42 121.29 0.65 240 -13.40 131.77 0.60 264 -14.03 137.77 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 125 12 UTC = 124 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.50 1.76 1.79 0.92 0.92 48 -0.26 -0.37 1.99 2.04 0.93 0.93 72 -0.13 -0.25 2.23 2.32 0.92 0.92 96 -0.09 2.65 0.89 120 -0.05 3.11 0.84 144 0.01 3.60 0.80 168 0.07 4.21 0.74 192 0.11 4.85 0.66 216 0.19 5.31 0.58 240 0.15 5.69 0.51 264 0.13 5.73 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 0.04 1.04 1.07 0.93 0.93 48 0.01 0.08 1.27 1.31 0.94 0.94 72 0.02 0.12 1.60 1.62 0.93 0.93 96 0.12 1.93 0.90 120 0.11 2.40 0.84 144 0.14 2.90 0.80 168 0.19 3.39 0.76 192 0.09 3.88 0.72 216 -0.06 4.22 0.66 240 -0.15 4.51 0.60 264 -0.13 4.72 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.12 1.29 1.23 0.91 0.91 48 -0.37 -0.23 1.60 1.51 0.92 0.92 72 -0.40 -0.26 1.93 1.84 0.90 0.90 96 -0.36 2.21 0.86 120 -0.37 2.63 0.80 144 -0.30 3.02 0.74 168 -0.32 3.36 0.71 192 -0.49 3.73 0.69 216 -0.58 4.00 0.63 240 -0.65 4.21 0.59 264 -0.62 4.23 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.03 -0.81 4.16 4.07 48 -1.10 -0.82 4.73 4.61 72 -1.08 -0.86 5.32 5.21 96 -0.76 6.04 120 -0.75 6.79 144 -0.67 7.88 168 -0.80 8.74 192 -0.98 9.56 216 -1.08 9.96 240 -0.93 10.21 264 -0.89 10.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 133 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.65 4.44 4.59 48 -0.88 -0.83 5.51 5.63 72 -1.04 -0.98 6.64 6.85 96 -0.99 8.14 120 -1.03 9.62 144 -1.06 10.73 168 -1.11 12.32 192 -1.40 13.70 216 -1.34 14.44 240 -1.28 14.90 264 -1.30 15.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 151 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.50 6.06 6.10 48 -0.98 -0.82 7.74 7.98 72 -1.10 -0.90 9.68 9.74 96 -0.98 11.84 120 -0.95 14.10 144 -0.93 16.10 168 -0.89 17.91 192 -1.09 20.49 216 -0.95 21.87 240 -0.78 23.46 264 -0.84 23.89 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 148 12 UTC = 148 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.02 -7.06 8.95 12.68 0.99 0.98 48 -2.30 -6.72 10.26 14.19 0.98 0.98 72 -2.81 -7.24 13.13 17.41 0.98 0.98 96 -7.78 25.71 0.94 120 -7.27 34.93 0.88 144 -9.76 52.25 0.77 168 -9.33 53.96 0.74 192 -12.30 62.72 0.72 216 -7.58 66.87 0.62 240 -10.27 67.56 0.60 264 -13.89 76.38 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.61 -12.72 13.11 17.06 0.98 0.99 48 -8.69 -13.54 15.19 20.10 0.98 0.99 72 -9.84 -14.65 19.08 24.93 0.98 0.97 96 -15.94 36.50 0.93 120 -13.62 51.44 0.90 144 -19.12 78.30 0.75 168 -17.86 79.60 0.72 192 -26.63 96.21 0.70 216 -19.86 94.76 0.65 240 -20.29 93.92 0.65 264 -22.92 107.72 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.88 -11.75 13.59 16.99 0.98 0.99 48 -7.37 -13.37 17.52 22.41 0.99 0.99 72 -9.28 -15.26 23.68 29.62 0.98 0.98 96 -16.60 45.44 0.95 120 -13.85 67.80 0.89 144 -21.01 101.37 0.75 168 -16.13 104.80 0.71 192 -27.29 126.56 0.68 216 -18.97 128.22 0.65 240 -18.66 129.31 0.64 264 -18.69 144.83 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.77 1.21 1.35 0.83 0.87 48 -0.55 -0.82 1.33 1.50 0.87 0.84 72 -0.53 -0.79 1.44 1.54 0.87 0.90 96 -0.76 1.75 0.86 120 -0.67 2.14 0.82 144 -0.82 2.64 0.72 168 -1.02 3.33 0.60 192 -1.21 3.52 0.60 216 -1.20 3.52 0.58 240 -1.00 3.43 0.62 264 -0.99 3.45 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.07 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.90 48 0.02 0.03 0.91 1.05 0.92 0.89 72 0.01 0.00 1.09 1.21 0.90 0.90 96 -0.04 1.51 0.87 120 0.12 2.02 0.79 144 -0.08 2.80 0.65 168 0.09 2.87 0.65 192 -0.18 3.30 0.65 216 -0.04 3.21 0.61 240 0.03 3.26 0.59 264 0.16 3.42 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.11 1.01 1.06 0.89 0.88 48 0.04 0.04 1.19 1.25 0.87 0.86 72 -0.02 -0.01 1.37 1.41 0.87 0.84 96 0.00 1.81 0.78 120 -0.25 2.16 0.76 144 -0.03 2.85 0.60 168 -0.21 2.83 0.63 192 0.15 3.14 0.55 216 0.07 3.00 0.58 240 -0.12 3.19 0.51 264 -0.08 3.43 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.16 3.57 3.81 48 -0.24 -0.07 3.86 4.27 72 -0.21 -0.06 4.25 4.81 96 0.04 5.57 120 0.10 7.17 144 0.06 8.73 168 -0.06 8.72 192 -0.29 9.79 216 -0.30 10.07 240 -0.14 10.95 264 -0.65 11.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.48 3.93 4.11 48 -0.61 -0.45 4.54 4.93 72 -0.63 -0.55 5.72 5.64 96 -0.40 7.54 120 -0.25 9.42 144 -0.25 12.70 168 0.00 12.57 192 -0.20 14.14 216 -0.25 14.56 240 -0.23 16.29 264 -0.09 16.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.94 5.06 5.51 48 -0.97 -1.08 6.20 6.49 72 -1.03 -1.12 7.65 7.64 96 -0.76 9.96 120 -1.00 12.77 144 -0.79 17.38 168 -0.10 18.61 192 -1.43 20.28 216 -0.88 21.15 240 -1.38 23.62 264 -1.00 25.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.64 -2.56 9.08 9.02 0.72 0.69 48 -3.58 -2.20 9.52 9.33 0.81 0.77 72 -4.09 -2.53 10.19 9.78 0.82 0.78 96 -3.04 10.30 0.77 120 -3.52 10.66 0.77 144 -3.51 10.89 0.75 168 -3.57 11.55 0.68 192 -4.42 12.45 0.64 216 -4.52 13.06 0.64 240 -4.88 14.01 0.61 264 -5.37 14.65 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.86 -5.18 11.93 11.77 0.62 0.57 48 -5.78 -5.17 12.22 12.16 0.76 0.72 72 -6.61 -5.70 13.06 12.75 0.77 0.72 96 -6.68 13.53 0.69 120 -7.58 14.23 0.67 144 -7.95 14.64 0.69 168 -8.40 15.39 0.66 192 -9.38 16.21 0.62 216 -9.80 16.82 0.59 240 -10.12 17.53 0.57 264 -10.52 18.67 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.72 -6.00 14.42 14.53 0.65 0.60 48 -7.58 -7.99 15.76 16.18 0.78 0.72 72 -9.71 -9.88 17.55 17.93 0.81 0.74 96 -11.81 19.41 0.74 120 -13.53 20.98 0.72 144 -14.72 22.25 0.71 168 -16.02 23.79 0.70 192 -17.30 25.28 0.64 216 -18.34 26.63 0.61 240 -19.04 27.88 0.57 264 -19.87 29.48 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.41 0.94 0.93 0.42 0.45 48 -0.40 -0.41 0.98 0.98 0.51 0.52 72 -0.41 -0.41 1.00 0.97 0.58 0.56 96 -0.42 0.98 0.58 120 -0.43 1.03 0.57 144 -0.42 1.05 0.54 168 -0.42 1.08 0.55 192 -0.44 1.09 0.54 216 -0.43 1.11 0.51 240 -0.42 1.13 0.50 264 -0.40 1.14 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.18 0.78 0.75 0.57 0.56 48 0.23 0.15 0.82 0.77 0.65 0.64 72 0.19 0.12 0.86 0.81 0.66 0.66 96 0.09 0.84 0.67 120 0.05 0.88 0.66 144 0.01 0.95 0.62 168 -0.02 0.98 0.57 192 -0.05 1.01 0.57 216 -0.08 1.01 0.56 240 -0.09 1.05 0.52 264 -0.06 1.06 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.38 0.65 0.70 0.58 0.58 48 -0.54 -0.59 0.82 0.87 0.62 0.63 72 -0.62 -0.68 0.90 0.97 0.61 0.65 96 -0.72 1.03 0.61 120 -0.78 1.09 0.61 144 -0.82 1.14 0.59 168 -0.87 1.19 0.58 192 -0.89 1.24 0.58 216 -0.93 1.28 0.57 240 -0.95 1.32 0.54 264 -0.98 1.38 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.46 2.98 3.04 48 -0.44 -0.49 3.18 3.21 72 -0.42 -0.52 3.40 3.37 96 -0.55 3.51 120 -0.57 3.68 144 -0.61 3.80 168 -0.67 4.01 192 -0.67 4.24 216 -0.75 4.54 240 -0.68 4.77 264 -0.65 4.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -0.99 3.45 3.35 48 -1.18 -1.14 3.74 3.68 72 -1.25 -1.20 4.02 3.93 96 -1.17 4.24 120 -1.17 4.55 144 -1.18 4.87 168 -1.14 5.17 192 -1.15 5.46 216 -1.12 5.75 240 -1.09 6.01 264 -0.92 6.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.87 4.12 4.41 48 -1.02 -1.02 4.86 5.35 72 -1.24 -1.08 5.70 6.19 96 -1.08 6.88 120 -1.07 7.40 144 -1.03 7.90 168 -1.07 8.40 192 -1.06 8.88 216 -0.90 9.36 240 -0.98 10.09 264 -1.03 10.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.49 -2.00 9.49 9.50 0.98 0.97 48 -2.99 -3.02 12.53 12.59 0.98 0.98 72 -3.40 -3.29 16.67 16.88 0.96 0.96 96 -3.58 22.46 0.93 120 -4.59 30.35 0.88 144 -5.45 39.34 0.80 168 -5.93 47.15 0.73 192 -5.92 52.77 0.67 216 -7.01 58.67 0.61 240 -7.83 62.64 0.56 264 -8.58 65.99 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 386 12 UTC = 377 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.93 -2.98 11.51 11.51 0.98 0.98 48 -3.15 -2.80 15.71 15.89 0.98 0.98 72 -2.81 -2.04 22.31 22.56 0.97 0.97 96 -1.94 31.50 0.94 120 -2.77 43.04 0.89 144 -3.81 56.99 0.83 168 -4.91 69.66 0.76 192 -5.51 81.11 0.70 216 -7.47 89.92 0.64 240 -9.11 96.78 0.60 264 -10.44 102.32 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.41 -3.84 17.98 17.66 0.98 0.98 48 -5.03 -4.10 23.27 23.28 0.98 0.98 72 -5.38 -4.01 32.12 32.20 0.97 0.97 96 -4.78 44.55 0.94 120 -5.94 60.84 0.89 144 -6.62 80.21 0.84 168 -8.17 95.99 0.79 192 -10.20 111.72 0.73 216 -13.87 126.26 0.66 240 -16.99 137.75 0.62 264 -18.98 147.03 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 398 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.42 1.53 1.57 0.92 0.92 48 -0.42 -0.39 1.76 1.80 0.93 0.93 72 -0.39 -0.35 2.01 2.08 0.92 0.91 96 -0.29 2.43 0.89 120 -0.26 2.93 0.84 144 -0.26 3.48 0.79 168 -0.32 4.05 0.74 192 -0.36 4.59 0.68 216 -0.36 4.99 0.62 240 -0.40 5.25 0.59 264 -0.43 5.41 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 414 12 UTC = 401 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.05 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.93 48 0.10 0.11 1.15 1.16 0.94 0.94 72 0.13 0.14 1.44 1.47 0.93 0.93 96 0.16 1.83 0.89 120 0.15 2.30 0.84 144 0.15 2.85 0.79 168 0.14 3.26 0.75 192 0.08 3.64 0.71 216 0.00 3.97 0.66 240 -0.08 4.24 0.61 264 -0.12 4.46 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 443 12 UTC = 431 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 0.01 1.17 1.13 0.92 0.92 48 -0.15 -0.09 1.46 1.42 0.92 0.92 72 -0.22 -0.17 1.80 1.76 0.89 0.89 96 -0.25 2.15 0.85 120 -0.29 2.60 0.79 144 -0.29 3.03 0.73 168 -0.27 3.32 0.70 192 -0.35 3.59 0.68 216 -0.39 3.83 0.63 240 -0.43 4.01 0.59 264 -0.44 4.02 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 438 12 UTC = 425 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.76 3.82 3.83 48 -0.85 -0.79 4.29 4.30 72 -0.90 -0.87 4.90 4.97 96 -0.91 5.81 120 -0.92 6.76 144 -0.91 7.79 168 -0.91 8.64 192 -0.92 9.31 216 -0.88 9.71 240 -0.79 9.99 264 -0.71 10.17 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.67 4.08 4.16 48 -0.83 -0.86 5.05 5.15 72 -0.93 -0.97 6.32 6.45 96 -1.03 7.95 120 -1.07 9.51 144 -1.11 10.98 168 -1.09 12.62 192 -1.05 13.81 216 -0.94 14.74 240 -0.87 15.32 264 -0.77 15.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 435 12 UTC = 420 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.68 5.59 5.52 48 -0.87 -0.91 7.08 7.15 72 -0.94 -0.98 9.06 9.03 96 -1.07 11.36 120 -1.08 13.82 144 -1.11 16.41 168 -1.12 18.51 192 -1.00 20.46 216 -0.83 22.14 240 -0.75 23.33 264 -0.65 23.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 430 12 UTC = 417 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.73 -1.19 9.09 9.63 0.98 0.98 48 -1.54 -1.35 11.42 12.33 0.98 0.97 72 -1.93 -2.13 15.38 17.09 0.97 0.97 96 -3.40 25.74 0.93 120 -3.80 34.00 0.88 144 -4.75 46.07 0.81 168 -6.97 50.37 0.77 192 -7.82 54.25 0.74 216 -6.87 59.27 0.68 240 -6.98 62.13 0.62 264 -9.27 67.00 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.04 -7.13 13.65 13.05 0.98 0.98 48 -8.57 -7.69 18.05 18.57 0.97 0.98 72 -9.56 -9.40 23.64 25.76 0.96 0.96 96 -10.47 36.85 0.93 120 -10.41 50.25 0.88 144 -12.59 67.59 0.79 168 -15.09 75.39 0.76 192 -16.96 84.54 0.73 216 -15.58 88.57 0.67 240 -15.67 91.96 0.64 264 -16.85 98.49 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.95 -6.44 16.29 16.11 0.98 0.98 48 -8.48 -7.70 22.93 24.62 0.98 0.98 72 -10.27 -9.84 30.92 34.84 0.97 0.97 96 -10.95 50.37 0.94 120 -11.93 70.69 0.88 144 -13.91 95.18 0.79 168 -14.90 108.09 0.74 192 -15.53 121.56 0.70 216 -14.24 130.16 0.64 240 -16.58 138.28 0.59 264 -17.07 145.04 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.80 1.60 1.69 0.86 0.88 48 -0.70 -0.84 1.71 1.82 0.89 0.91 72 -0.71 -0.81 1.88 1.97 0.88 0.90 96 -0.83 2.29 0.86 120 -0.80 2.63 0.82 144 -0.86 3.08 0.75 168 -0.96 3.44 0.70 192 -1.06 3.80 0.66 216 -1.14 4.18 0.61 240 -1.10 4.41 0.55 264 -1.05 4.54 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 0.00 0.88 0.97 0.92 0.92 48 -0.05 0.00 1.05 1.24 0.93 0.93 72 -0.04 -0.03 1.32 1.60 0.90 0.91 96 -0.01 2.03 0.86 120 -0.01 2.48 0.82 144 -0.04 3.04 0.74 168 0.05 3.39 0.70 192 0.03 3.79 0.66 216 0.07 3.97 0.59 240 -0.15 4.27 0.52 264 -0.02 4.40 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.19 1.10 1.06 0.90 0.91 48 0.19 0.14 1.31 1.38 0.89 0.89 72 0.15 0.09 1.58 1.70 0.86 0.86 96 0.07 2.09 0.79 120 0.02 2.38 0.75 144 0.04 2.83 0.67 168 -0.02 2.97 0.67 192 0.08 3.15 0.66 216 -0.01 3.40 0.59 240 -0.06 3.43 0.56 264 -0.12 3.51 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.48 4.17 4.27 48 -0.47 -0.44 4.53 4.71 72 -0.44 -0.43 5.00 5.27 96 -0.33 6.23 120 -0.23 7.35 144 -0.24 8.58 168 -0.14 8.80 192 -0.06 9.67 216 -0.15 9.90 240 -0.36 10.51 264 -0.29 10.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.53 4.21 4.43 48 -0.55 -0.54 4.99 5.47 72 -0.49 -0.49 6.24 6.65 96 -0.30 8.34 120 -0.11 9.75 144 0.02 12.24 168 0.43 12.67 192 0.62 14.04 216 0.88 15.01 240 0.53 15.93 264 1.03 16.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.24 5.61 5.86 48 -0.74 -0.40 7.06 7.23 72 -0.86 -0.39 8.66 8.99 96 -0.21 11.54 120 -0.14 14.07 144 0.11 17.29 168 1.20 19.52 192 1.15 21.48 216 1.74 23.03 240 0.74 24.59 264 1.90 27.23 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 44 ---------------------------------------------------------