VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JULY 2018 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.07 0.71 0.72 0.99 0.99 17.8 17.9 48 -0.13 -0.09 1.20 1.23 0.97 0.98 27.3 27.1 72 -0.15 -0.09 1.79 1.79 0.94 0.95 35.9 35.4 96 -0.08 2.50 0.90 43.7 120 -0.09 3.22 0.83 51.0 144 -0.10 3.96 0.74 57.9 168 -0.10 4.61 0.65 63.1 192 -0.05 5.15 0.57 67.4 216 -0.03 5.61 0.49 70.7 240 -0.03 5.89 0.44 72.1 264 0.00 6.12 0.41 74.2 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.15 5.67 5.71 1.00 1.00 12.8 12.7 48 -0.26 0.05 11.34 11.34 0.99 0.99 22.1 22.0 72 -0.04 0.42 18.45 18.38 0.96 0.96 31.2 31.1 96 0.73 27.33 0.92 40.5 120 0.85 36.54 0.85 48.9 144 0.99 46.05 0.76 56.6 168 1.20 54.06 0.66 62.1 192 1.68 60.37 0.58 66.2 216 2.01 66.52 0.49 70.1 240 1.96 70.98 0.42 72.7 264 2.25 74.84 0.36 74.9 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.30 8.16 8.39 1.00 1.00 12.2 12.2 48 -1.20 -0.90 16.44 16.58 0.99 0.99 21.3 21.3 72 -1.79 -1.44 27.23 27.03 0.96 0.96 30.5 30.4 96 -1.87 39.59 0.92 39.4 120 -2.45 53.29 0.85 47.7 144 -2.88 68.16 0.76 55.6 168 -3.16 79.56 0.67 60.8 192 -3.07 87.84 0.59 64.2 216 -2.96 96.71 0.51 68.1 240 -3.39 103.19 0.44 70.7 264 -3.80 109.23 0.38 72.7 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.08 0.43 0.43 0.99 0.99 48 0.12 0.12 0.74 0.74 0.96 0.96 72 0.14 0.13 1.07 1.06 0.91 0.92 96 0.14 1.40 0.85 120 0.14 1.74 0.77 144 0.14 2.09 0.67 168 0.14 2.34 0.58 192 0.14 2.51 0.51 216 0.14 2.71 0.44 240 0.13 2.85 0.38 264 0.11 2.97 0.33 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.18 0.63 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.32 -0.32 1.08 1.06 0.93 0.94 72 -0.41 -0.42 1.49 1.49 0.86 0.87 96 -0.48 1.92 0.77 120 -0.52 2.30 0.67 144 -0.57 2.66 0.56 168 -0.61 2.93 0.47 192 -0.64 3.10 0.41 216 -0.64 3.27 0.36 240 -0.66 3.37 0.31 264 -0.69 3.49 0.27 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.15 1.90 1.87 48 -0.26 -0.26 3.28 3.24 72 -0.34 -0.34 4.61 4.57 96 -0.39 6.02 120 -0.42 7.37 144 -0.44 8.64 168 -0.42 9.58 192 -0.48 10.26 216 -0.52 10.93 240 -0.51 11.36 264 -0.55 11.71 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.12 3.22 3.23 48 -0.18 -0.24 5.48 5.44 72 -0.22 -0.28 7.78 7.75 96 -0.29 10.08 120 -0.34 12.34 144 -0.41 14.62 168 -0.42 16.00 192 -0.51 16.90 216 -0.55 18.00 240 -0.60 18.65 264 -0.64 19.17 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.10 2.78 3.05 0.97 0.97 20.6 21.2 48 0.12 0.12 4.13 4.71 0.93 0.92 27.2 27.4 72 0.18 0.10 4.93 5.49 0.90 0.89 31.3 31.5 96 0.20 6.07 0.87 34.8 120 0.10 6.87 0.84 37.7 144 0.12 7.61 0.80 40.3 168 0.06 8.40 0.75 42.6 192 -0.24 9.16 0.69 44.6 216 -1.03 10.26 0.64 46.6 240 -1.67 11.35 0.58 48.6 264 -2.03 12.34 0.52 50.0 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.53 -2.02 4.62 4.92 0.98 0.98 20.5 20.6 48 -4.20 -4.80 8.05 8.56 0.95 0.95 28.0 28.3 72 -6.45 -6.95 10.88 11.34 0.92 0.92 33.5 33.6 96 -8.47 13.53 0.89 38.1 120 -9.75 15.70 0.85 42.1 144 -10.63 17.70 0.80 45.3 168 -11.12 19.61 0.74 48.5 192 -11.93 21.92 0.67 51.5 216 -12.75 23.83 0.60 54.2 240 -13.63 25.33 0.55 56.2 264 -14.46 27.02 0.51 57.9 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.09 0.38 0.40 0.96 0.96 48 -0.12 -0.10 0.58 0.59 0.91 0.91 72 -0.13 -0.11 0.71 0.73 0.86 0.86 96 -0.11 0.82 0.83 120 -0.12 0.92 0.79 144 -0.14 1.02 0.73 168 -0.14 1.12 0.67 192 -0.16 1.21 0.63 216 -0.18 1.30 0.58 240 -0.19 1.40 0.52 264 -0.18 1.46 0.49 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.30 0.43 0.46 0.93 0.93 48 -0.48 -0.52 0.68 0.72 0.85 0.85 72 -0.62 -0.66 0.84 0.88 0.78 0.78 96 -0.75 1.00 0.72 120 -0.81 1.08 0.66 144 -0.85 1.16 0.61 168 -0.87 1.21 0.56 192 -0.89 1.25 0.51 216 -0.90 1.30 0.45 240 -0.91 1.34 0.40 264 -0.92 1.38 0.38 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 1.38 1.37 48 -0.16 -0.14 2.05 2.02 72 -0.19 -0.17 2.54 2.50 96 -0.20 2.90 120 -0.20 3.26 144 -0.19 3.59 168 -0.18 3.88 192 -0.19 4.15 216 -0.20 4.43 240 -0.24 4.68 264 -0.24 4.88 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.27 3.05 3.07 48 -0.40 -0.49 4.54 4.56 72 -0.52 -0.58 5.63 5.69 96 -0.54 6.63 120 -0.51 7.50 144 -0.49 8.23 168 -0.43 8.92 192 -0.31 9.67 216 -0.23 10.34 240 -0.20 10.89 264 -0.16 11.29 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.03 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 12.3 12.2 48 0.06 0.03 2.14 2.14 0.98 0.98 22.6 22.6 72 0.05 0.00 3.43 3.51 0.95 0.95 31.8 32.3 96 -0.03 4.98 0.90 40.6 120 -0.03 6.60 0.82 48.9 144 -0.04 7.97 0.74 55.4 168 -0.07 9.36 0.65 60.5 192 -0.07 10.65 0.55 65.3 216 0.00 11.65 0.46 67.8 240 0.07 12.07 0.41 69.5 264 0.09 12.53 0.36 70.9 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.66 8.55 8.70 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.8 48 -1.16 -1.38 18.62 18.99 0.99 0.99 18.3 18.5 72 -1.70 -2.02 30.81 31.69 0.96 0.96 26.3 26.7 96 -2.65 46.13 0.92 34.5 120 -3.20 61.91 0.85 42.0 144 -3.67 77.57 0.76 48.4 168 -3.66 92.98 0.67 54.3 192 -3.81 106.81 0.56 58.8 216 -3.82 118.04 0.46 62.1 240 -3.63 125.36 0.39 64.3 264 -4.49 131.11 0.31 66.1 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -1.13 11.08 11.16 1.00 1.00 7.8 7.8 48 -2.25 -2.45 22.79 23.32 0.99 0.99 13.9 14.1 72 -3.67 -3.83 37.84 38.88 0.97 0.97 20.3 20.7 96 -4.94 57.63 0.93 27.6 120 -5.71 78.36 0.86 34.5 144 -6.53 99.59 0.78 40.7 168 -6.96 121.39 0.68 46.6 192 -8.04 139.55 0.58 51.3 216 -9.09 153.15 0.48 54.4 240 -10.03 164.31 0.40 56.7 264 -11.67 173.44 0.32 58.6 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.53 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.04 1.01 1.02 0.97 0.97 72 -0.08 -0.07 1.51 1.54 0.93 0.93 96 -0.10 2.09 0.86 120 -0.13 2.67 0.78 144 -0.15 3.24 0.67 168 -0.15 3.78 0.56 192 -0.21 4.18 0.47 216 -0.26 4.47 0.38 240 -0.32 4.68 0.31 264 -0.39 4.86 0.25 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 0.62 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.10 -0.10 1.05 1.07 0.94 0.94 72 -0.14 -0.13 1.50 1.53 0.88 0.88 96 -0.15 1.96 0.79 120 -0.14 2.42 0.68 144 -0.16 2.82 0.57 168 -0.17 3.13 0.47 192 -0.19 3.40 0.38 216 -0.23 3.60 0.31 240 -0.24 3.78 0.24 264 -0.23 3.92 0.19 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.04 2.48 2.52 48 -0.01 -0.03 4.72 4.77 72 -0.01 0.00 6.87 6.98 96 0.02 9.18 120 0.03 11.33 144 0.08 13.39 168 0.07 15.24 192 -0.03 16.75 216 -0.10 17.78 240 -0.22 18.47 264 -0.26 19.12 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.10 3.30 3.30 48 -0.24 -0.19 5.78 5.85 72 -0.33 -0.26 8.49 8.64 96 -0.34 11.66 120 -0.41 14.78 144 -0.40 17.72 168 -0.41 20.65 192 -0.54 22.98 216 -0.68 24.61 240 -0.86 25.85 264 -0.82 27.04 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.34 -2.58 8.27 7.84 0.97 0.97 48 -4.41 -1.77 10.31 10.00 0.97 0.97 72 -3.24 -1.95 12.98 12.55 0.95 0.96 96 -2.63 16.72 0.93 120 -3.43 22.72 0.89 144 -4.53 26.72 0.85 168 -7.74 30.65 0.79 192 -9.29 35.02 0.72 216 -8.85 36.85 0.71 240 -7.34 40.60 0.65 264 -7.07 43.89 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.31 -5.72 10.21 9.66 0.97 0.97 48 -5.63 -4.31 12.39 11.82 0.98 0.97 72 -3.87 -3.92 16.29 15.31 0.96 0.96 96 -4.09 21.57 0.93 120 -4.26 29.07 0.91 144 -5.13 35.34 0.88 168 -8.21 40.24 0.83 192 -10.60 47.32 0.76 216 -10.92 49.94 0.75 240 -9.84 54.86 0.71 264 -9.77 59.85 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.55 -7.03 14.26 13.82 0.97 0.97 48 -7.14 -6.08 19.11 18.35 0.98 0.98 72 -5.68 -6.09 26.83 24.71 0.96 0.96 96 -6.41 34.23 0.94 120 -5.72 47.00 0.91 144 -5.70 59.33 0.88 168 -8.09 66.37 0.82 192 -11.74 79.17 0.73 216 -12.80 84.53 0.73 240 -12.85 89.66 0.72 264 -14.91 96.40 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.79 1.33 1.63 0.88 0.88 48 -0.57 -0.82 1.49 1.75 0.91 0.92 72 -0.54 -0.79 1.63 1.87 0.91 0.91 96 -0.78 2.06 0.88 120 -0.73 2.35 0.87 144 -0.73 2.77 0.82 168 -0.71 2.97 0.78 192 -0.77 3.30 0.73 216 -0.75 3.60 0.69 240 -0.74 3.67 0.69 264 -0.71 3.92 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.17 0.79 0.82 0.87 0.87 48 0.24 0.23 0.95 0.98 0.90 0.90 72 0.28 0.27 1.14 1.16 0.88 0.87 96 0.30 1.37 0.85 120 0.31 1.65 0.81 144 0.34 1.90 0.79 168 0.36 2.04 0.73 192 0.29 2.27 0.67 216 0.24 2.42 0.67 240 0.20 2.48 0.65 264 0.11 2.54 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.17 0.92 0.82 0.85 0.87 48 -0.25 -0.27 1.12 1.06 0.87 0.88 72 -0.28 -0.28 1.30 1.24 0.84 0.85 96 -0.24 1.46 0.81 120 -0.17 1.66 0.81 144 -0.14 1.95 0.77 168 -0.06 2.18 0.69 192 -0.07 2.30 0.65 216 -0.04 2.39 0.63 240 -0.11 2.43 0.66 264 -0.17 2.52 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -1.03 3.41 3.59 48 -0.72 -1.07 3.87 4.02 72 -0.78 -1.12 4.30 4.51 96 -1.12 5.08 120 -1.17 5.77 144 -1.12 6.43 168 -1.01 6.92 192 -1.01 7.48 216 -1.07 7.82 240 -1.34 7.87 264 -1.23 8.23 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.72 3.68 3.63 48 -0.77 -0.78 4.22 4.24 72 -0.79 -0.81 5.11 4.89 96 -0.72 5.92 120 -0.76 7.18 144 -0.72 8.01 168 -0.56 8.78 192 -0.56 9.65 216 -0.52 10.20 240 -0.69 10.58 264 -0.77 11.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.73 5.61 5.38 48 -0.94 -0.89 6.95 6.74 72 -0.96 -0.91 8.78 8.27 96 -0.76 10.08 120 -0.69 12.33 144 -0.55 14.32 168 -0.51 15.43 192 -0.62 17.16 216 -0.48 18.45 240 -0.75 18.50 264 -0.77 19.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.43 -5.44 10.01 8.86 0.96 0.96 48 -10.72 -9.82 13.90 13.21 0.97 0.97 72 -12.50 -12.72 17.87 17.72 0.95 0.96 96 -11.16 20.58 0.91 120 -8.53 24.30 0.85 144 -6.19 26.78 0.80 168 -4.90 29.77 0.76 192 -4.29 35.21 0.67 216 -3.48 38.19 0.61 240 -7.09 38.77 0.63 264 -10.87 39.38 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.68 -5.76 12.05 9.96 0.97 0.97 48 -11.78 -9.96 17.11 15.65 0.97 0.97 72 -13.83 -13.30 23.77 22.39 0.95 0.96 96 -11.80 28.58 0.92 120 -7.79 36.46 0.86 144 -2.31 42.44 0.81 168 1.28 49.46 0.76 192 1.92 57.46 0.67 216 2.35 60.86 0.63 240 -1.51 63.73 0.62 264 -9.31 68.52 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.94 -5.00 16.10 15.14 0.97 0.98 48 -10.76 -9.41 22.62 22.15 0.97 0.97 72 -13.20 -13.03 32.72 30.61 0.95 0.96 96 -11.95 42.07 0.93 120 -7.85 55.78 0.86 144 -1.96 65.64 0.81 168 2.53 79.78 0.73 192 3.55 89.58 0.67 216 3.76 94.11 0.64 240 -3.16 100.48 0.62 264 -14.79 108.58 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.11 1.34 1.11 0.86 0.84 48 -0.90 -0.29 1.60 1.33 0.89 0.88 72 -1.05 -0.39 1.90 1.54 0.87 0.88 96 -0.44 1.76 0.85 120 -0.36 2.12 0.77 144 -0.11 2.49 0.73 168 0.16 2.74 0.72 192 0.23 3.00 0.66 216 0.07 3.12 0.63 240 0.00 3.23 0.61 264 -0.23 3.47 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.14 0.75 0.74 0.88 0.89 48 0.25 0.19 0.92 0.93 0.90 0.89 72 0.25 0.19 1.17 1.11 0.86 0.89 96 0.18 1.42 0.83 120 0.28 1.74 0.76 144 0.37 1.95 0.72 168 0.42 2.28 0.63 192 0.42 2.45 0.61 216 0.50 2.50 0.62 240 0.44 2.71 0.60 264 0.23 2.87 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.11 1.01 0.94 0.89 0.90 48 0.02 0.07 1.22 1.18 0.88 0.89 72 0.07 0.05 1.50 1.41 0.84 0.87 96 0.01 1.75 0.82 120 -0.01 2.10 0.78 144 -0.12 2.32 0.75 168 -0.10 2.56 0.72 192 -0.09 2.88 0.65 216 -0.18 2.97 0.65 240 -0.41 3.13 0.64 264 -0.51 3.21 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.53 3.40 3.29 48 -0.81 -0.63 3.79 3.60 72 -0.92 -0.75 4.32 4.09 96 -0.92 4.70 120 -1.03 5.25 144 -0.95 5.78 168 -0.90 6.36 192 -0.75 6.91 216 -0.57 7.38 240 -0.38 7.47 264 -0.39 7.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.28 3.32 3.26 48 -0.60 -0.46 4.27 4.08 72 -0.79 -0.62 5.32 5.06 96 -0.75 6.52 120 -0.64 7.94 144 -0.32 8.91 168 -0.29 10.09 192 -0.40 10.94 216 -0.38 11.70 240 -0.32 11.95 264 -0.20 12.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.73 5.20 4.88 48 -0.82 -0.70 6.74 6.27 72 -0.90 -0.75 9.24 8.19 96 -0.88 10.94 120 -0.86 13.54 144 -0.51 15.77 168 -0.74 17.84 192 -0.99 19.04 216 -1.15 19.97 240 -1.25 20.84 264 -1.19 21.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.10 -4.02 9.21 9.70 0.94 0.94 48 -2.93 -4.35 11.60 12.16 0.95 0.94 72 -2.25 -2.37 15.15 14.77 0.93 0.93 96 -1.79 18.62 0.89 120 -2.27 23.92 0.82 144 -2.50 29.01 0.76 168 -2.09 32.75 0.70 192 -1.48 35.37 0.65 216 -1.78 37.50 0.63 240 -4.32 40.10 0.61 264 -4.47 41.37 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 116 12 UTC = 116 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.75 -3.56 12.32 11.54 0.93 0.93 48 -3.41 -2.65 14.84 14.30 0.95 0.94 72 -1.75 0.14 18.84 18.27 0.93 0.93 96 1.60 23.18 0.90 120 2.01 29.21 0.84 144 2.65 36.39 0.78 168 3.45 43.48 0.70 192 3.88 47.04 0.67 216 3.97 50.48 0.64 240 0.68 52.53 0.64 264 -0.15 54.16 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.29 -4.60 19.98 19.28 0.93 0.93 48 -5.79 -3.57 24.15 23.63 0.95 0.95 72 -4.19 -1.27 31.29 30.90 0.93 0.93 96 -0.19 39.65 0.89 120 0.10 48.71 0.85 144 0.61 59.05 0.79 168 0.96 69.13 0.74 192 1.41 77.21 0.69 216 0.45 82.10 0.67 240 -3.32 84.90 0.67 264 -5.50 88.11 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.35 1.56 1.50 0.81 0.84 48 -0.29 -0.30 1.70 1.70 0.86 0.87 72 -0.22 -0.24 1.87 1.92 0.85 0.85 96 -0.17 2.15 0.83 120 -0.06 2.42 0.78 144 0.08 2.80 0.73 168 0.14 3.24 0.67 192 0.15 3.53 0.61 216 0.27 3.71 0.54 240 0.31 3.83 0.51 264 0.31 3.96 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 134 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.13 0.92 0.96 0.82 0.83 48 0.10 0.20 1.06 1.10 0.87 0.87 72 0.15 0.23 1.27 1.29 0.85 0.86 96 0.26 1.48 0.83 120 0.28 1.72 0.78 144 0.28 1.99 0.73 168 0.28 2.23 0.68 192 0.27 2.44 0.62 216 0.25 2.60 0.59 240 0.23 2.60 0.60 264 0.18 2.63 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.21 1.21 1.15 0.85 0.85 48 -0.29 -0.27 1.45 1.42 0.86 0.86 72 -0.32 -0.32 1.72 1.68 0.83 0.83 96 -0.37 1.86 0.79 120 -0.39 2.10 0.74 144 -0.45 2.36 0.71 168 -0.48 2.60 0.64 192 -0.47 2.71 0.62 216 -0.46 2.87 0.60 240 -0.50 2.97 0.59 264 -0.54 3.00 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 151 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.64 3.73 3.59 48 -1.01 -0.63 4.28 4.14 72 -1.07 -0.63 4.92 4.71 96 -0.64 5.41 120 -0.59 6.12 144 -0.55 6.79 168 -0.54 7.37 192 -0.44 7.89 216 -0.42 8.19 240 -0.49 8.18 264 -0.45 8.31 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.75 3.73 3.80 48 -0.85 -0.86 4.51 4.66 72 -0.93 -0.94 5.43 5.50 96 -1.00 6.45 120 -1.01 7.48 144 -0.93 8.33 168 -0.83 9.14 192 -0.88 9.71 216 -0.89 10.07 240 -0.85 10.34 264 -0.94 10.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 151 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.75 5.42 5.63 48 -0.60 -0.85 7.23 7.27 72 -0.54 -0.97 9.06 8.98 96 -0.91 10.94 120 -0.98 12.53 144 -1.06 14.44 168 -1.12 15.77 192 -1.23 16.87 216 -1.15 17.74 240 -0.91 18.16 264 -1.17 18.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 151 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.71 -4.47 8.93 8.24 0.99 0.99 48 -1.76 -1.79 10.44 11.45 0.98 0.99 72 -0.67 0.78 14.64 18.90 0.97 0.97 96 0.84 28.89 0.95 120 2.66 37.35 0.87 144 6.61 46.45 0.80 168 7.41 55.45 0.74 192 11.77 67.69 0.63 216 15.51 71.80 0.52 240 17.49 82.25 0.36 264 15.93 89.28 0.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.58 -10.21 13.07 14.02 0.98 0.99 48 -7.16 -8.27 15.01 17.32 0.98 0.98 72 -6.95 -6.98 20.31 25.17 0.97 0.97 96 -7.24 36.88 0.94 120 -7.04 48.60 0.88 144 -1.83 61.45 0.83 168 -1.47 72.56 0.74 192 0.87 88.35 0.65 216 7.58 91.58 0.56 240 8.64 103.27 0.50 264 1.65 118.83 0.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.53 -11.10 14.73 16.85 0.99 0.99 48 -6.75 -10.27 18.88 20.88 0.99 0.99 72 -8.51 -10.93 26.65 30.17 0.98 0.98 96 -12.77 45.23 0.95 120 -12.88 63.33 0.88 144 -8.75 81.56 0.83 168 -5.85 98.88 0.70 192 -4.41 114.22 0.64 216 0.35 120.66 0.62 240 0.34 131.59 0.59 264 -12.98 152.83 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.78 1.22 1.39 0.83 0.77 48 -0.68 -0.87 1.34 1.52 0.88 0.86 72 -0.72 -0.97 1.56 1.74 0.87 0.85 96 -0.97 1.93 0.84 120 -0.93 2.10 0.80 144 -0.80 2.40 0.72 168 -0.86 2.68 0.63 192 -0.92 2.91 0.61 216 -0.83 2.93 0.57 240 -0.96 3.11 0.48 264 -1.10 3.49 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.06 1.01 1.02 0.91 0.92 48 0.02 -0.06 1.19 1.16 0.93 0.89 72 -0.01 -0.10 1.40 1.35 0.92 0.92 96 -0.17 1.71 0.88 120 -0.28 2.18 0.82 144 -0.24 2.54 0.75 168 -0.17 2.98 0.65 192 -0.44 3.24 0.61 216 -0.34 3.52 0.53 240 -0.29 3.44 0.57 264 -0.89 3.99 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.21 1.01 1.19 0.92 0.91 48 -0.09 0.09 1.20 1.48 0.93 0.92 72 -0.27 0.07 1.50 1.77 0.92 0.90 96 0.04 2.20 0.86 120 0.03 2.63 0.81 144 -0.18 2.96 0.80 168 0.08 3.23 0.77 192 0.16 3.71 0.67 216 0.05 3.79 0.59 240 -0.09 4.18 0.56 264 0.27 4.52 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.80 3.72 3.91 48 -0.41 -0.86 4.16 4.45 72 -0.47 -0.98 4.90 5.23 96 -1.06 6.61 120 -1.08 7.27 144 -0.97 9.05 168 -0.63 10.19 192 -0.85 11.38 216 -0.52 11.90 240 -1.11 12.23 264 -1.15 12.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.61 4.42 4.91 48 -0.70 -0.61 5.28 6.11 72 -0.69 -0.76 6.52 7.30 96 -0.99 8.89 120 -0.93 10.11 144 -1.30 12.74 168 -1.17 14.23 192 -0.88 15.08 216 -0.90 16.45 240 -1.28 16.95 264 -1.54 17.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.25 5.06 5.13 48 -1.23 -0.13 6.14 6.42 72 -1.47 -0.48 7.77 8.10 96 -0.65 10.21 120 -0.64 12.43 144 -1.02 16.08 168 -1.14 18.00 192 -0.51 19.40 216 -0.08 22.69 240 -0.81 23.50 264 -1.42 24.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.58 -2.99 8.54 8.07 0.67 0.69 48 -2.98 -2.55 8.85 8.38 0.77 0.80 72 -2.64 -2.51 9.20 8.72 0.78 0.79 96 -2.06 9.20 0.78 120 -1.93 9.80 0.77 144 -1.75 10.44 0.75 168 -1.69 11.31 0.67 192 -1.52 11.89 0.61 216 -1.95 12.64 0.59 240 -2.18 13.67 0.53 264 -2.04 14.18 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.02 -5.47 11.76 11.41 0.61 0.61 48 -5.57 -5.19 11.97 11.87 0.73 0.73 72 -5.75 -5.60 12.52 12.55 0.76 0.73 96 -5.64 12.81 0.73 120 -5.95 13.39 0.70 144 -6.27 14.09 0.70 168 -6.39 14.75 0.66 192 -6.69 15.23 0.61 216 -7.29 15.97 0.57 240 -8.13 16.95 0.53 264 -8.65 17.74 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.73 -7.07 14.40 14.77 0.68 0.67 48 -8.15 -8.81 16.19 16.93 0.79 0.77 72 -10.02 -10.99 18.29 19.27 0.81 0.79 96 -12.74 21.05 0.77 120 -14.32 22.77 0.72 144 -15.42 24.40 0.69 168 -16.20 25.68 0.65 192 -17.51 27.42 0.60 216 -18.66 28.83 0.56 240 -20.48 30.64 0.55 264 -22.07 32.40 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.35 1.09 1.08 0.46 0.43 48 -0.39 -0.37 1.14 1.12 0.51 0.51 72 -0.39 -0.34 1.15 1.13 0.55 0.54 96 -0.31 1.14 0.56 120 -0.31 1.16 0.54 144 -0.31 1.22 0.53 168 -0.31 1.26 0.49 192 -0.34 1.32 0.44 216 -0.37 1.35 0.47 240 -0.43 1.45 0.42 264 -0.46 1.48 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.12 0.83 0.83 0.63 0.58 48 0.16 0.12 0.89 0.88 0.69 0.63 72 0.15 0.11 0.93 0.91 0.70 0.64 96 0.07 0.93 0.64 120 0.02 0.98 0.64 144 -0.03 1.02 0.63 168 -0.07 1.08 0.59 192 -0.10 1.14 0.55 216 -0.09 1.17 0.53 240 -0.12 1.19 0.51 264 -0.16 1.20 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.26 0.61 0.64 0.65 0.67 48 -0.43 -0.46 0.76 0.79 0.72 0.74 72 -0.55 -0.61 0.89 0.92 0.73 0.76 96 -0.71 1.03 0.73 120 -0.78 1.11 0.68 144 -0.83 1.20 0.64 168 -0.88 1.28 0.60 192 -0.95 1.37 0.54 216 -0.98 1.42 0.54 240 -0.99 1.46 0.55 264 -1.03 1.53 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.27 3.46 3.39 48 -0.38 -0.41 3.78 3.70 72 -0.43 -0.45 4.10 3.98 96 -0.47 4.26 120 -0.50 4.55 144 -0.59 4.84 168 -0.66 5.09 192 -0.62 5.34 216 -0.56 5.53 240 -0.58 5.71 264 -0.58 5.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.82 3.72 3.80 48 -0.89 -0.84 4.17 4.24 72 -0.79 -0.70 4.54 4.62 96 -0.63 4.94 120 -0.60 5.23 144 -0.58 5.58 168 -0.70 5.97 192 -0.75 6.31 216 -0.76 6.70 240 -0.74 6.87 264 -0.75 6.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.94 4.71 4.65 48 -0.85 -1.12 5.57 5.63 72 -1.02 -1.29 6.37 6.40 96 -1.31 7.15 120 -1.27 7.97 144 -1.35 8.72 168 -1.30 9.35 192 -1.32 9.99 216 -1.14 10.57 240 -1.05 11.10 264 -0.97 11.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.85 -4.45 9.51 9.37 0.96 0.96 48 -5.69 -5.49 12.46 12.55 0.97 0.96 72 -5.55 -5.26 16.27 15.99 0.95 0.95 96 -4.90 20.49 0.92 120 -5.08 26.07 0.88 144 -5.43 31.54 0.83 168 -6.14 36.59 0.77 192 -6.29 41.09 0.71 216 -6.20 43.98 0.67 240 -7.19 46.98 0.63 264 -7.85 49.22 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 382 12 UTC = 376 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.35 -5.21 12.06 11.29 0.97 0.96 48 -6.41 -5.51 15.43 14.86 0.97 0.97 72 -5.70 -4.68 21.00 20.07 0.95 0.95 96 -3.99 27.23 0.92 120 -3.79 35.42 0.88 144 -3.38 43.67 0.83 168 -3.66 51.32 0.77 192 -4.16 58.38 0.71 216 -4.17 62.67 0.68 240 -5.69 66.67 0.65 264 -7.24 70.46 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 396 12 UTC = 389 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.52 -6.09 17.94 17.53 0.96 0.96 48 -8.02 -6.88 23.00 22.70 0.97 0.97 72 -7.81 -6.63 31.92 30.70 0.95 0.95 96 -6.63 41.81 0.92 120 -6.45 54.43 0.88 144 -5.78 66.83 0.83 168 -6.23 78.31 0.78 192 -7.05 89.41 0.72 216 -7.73 96.06 0.69 240 -10.44 101.39 0.67 264 -13.95 107.70 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 396 12 UTC = 389 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.44 1.44 1.45 0.86 0.87 48 -0.53 -0.46 1.61 1.62 0.90 0.90 72 -0.52 -0.44 1.81 1.83 0.89 0.89 96 -0.42 2.07 0.86 120 -0.36 2.44 0.82 144 -0.28 2.83 0.76 168 -0.21 3.15 0.71 192 -0.25 3.49 0.65 216 -0.24 3.74 0.61 240 -0.24 3.89 0.59 264 -0.23 4.03 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 407 12 UTC = 397 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.12 0.87 0.88 0.87 0.87 48 0.14 0.17 1.03 1.05 0.90 0.90 72 0.17 0.20 1.27 1.26 0.87 0.88 96 0.21 1.52 0.84 120 0.22 1.83 0.80 144 0.23 2.10 0.76 168 0.22 2.36 0.71 192 0.21 2.58 0.67 216 0.20 2.74 0.64 240 0.16 2.85 0.62 264 0.08 2.94 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 435 12 UTC = 426 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.11 1.13 1.09 0.89 0.89 48 -0.19 -0.19 1.39 1.36 0.88 0.89 72 -0.25 -0.25 1.70 1.64 0.85 0.86 96 -0.29 1.97 0.81 120 -0.29 2.27 0.78 144 -0.32 2.55 0.74 168 -0.31 2.81 0.69 192 -0.32 3.02 0.65 216 -0.33 3.17 0.62 240 -0.40 3.24 0.62 264 -0.46 3.36 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 432 12 UTC = 421 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.69 3.57 3.53 48 -0.85 -0.72 4.07 4.01 72 -0.93 -0.79 4.66 4.59 96 -0.85 5.27 120 -0.89 5.97 144 -0.87 6.64 168 -0.81 7.24 192 -0.74 7.79 216 -0.69 8.13 240 -0.74 8.19 264 -0.72 8.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 398 12 UTC = 386 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.64 3.59 3.61 48 -0.78 -0.75 4.42 4.42 72 -0.87 -0.82 5.43 5.34 96 -0.85 6.51 120 -0.86 7.79 144 -0.79 8.78 168 -0.70 9.75 192 -0.71 10.47 216 -0.71 11.05 240 -0.72 11.35 264 -0.77 11.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 429 12 UTC = 419 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.72 5.24 5.27 48 -0.74 -0.82 6.87 6.83 72 -0.76 -0.85 8.89 8.65 96 -0.81 10.81 120 -0.81 12.95 144 -0.70 15.01 168 -0.74 16.49 192 -0.80 17.67 216 -0.78 18.74 240 -0.76 19.16 264 -0.81 19.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 426 12 UTC = 415 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.17 -0.48 9.18 9.49 0.98 0.98 48 0.34 -0.07 12.39 13.26 0.98 0.98 72 0.60 -0.90 17.59 19.43 0.96 0.96 96 -1.40 27.32 0.92 120 -0.40 33.67 0.90 144 1.85 41.18 0.85 168 0.50 49.98 0.78 192 -0.13 57.41 0.68 216 -0.06 64.26 0.62 240 0.95 68.38 0.55 264 1.23 70.82 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.05 -7.77 13.77 13.48 0.98 0.98 48 -7.68 -8.77 18.02 18.98 0.98 0.98 72 -8.07 -10.73 25.51 27.82 0.96 0.97 96 -11.75 37.76 0.94 120 -12.49 46.00 0.92 144 -8.99 55.21 0.88 168 -10.43 67.79 0.82 192 -13.11 80.94 0.74 216 -12.67 90.63 0.67 240 -11.92 98.61 0.60 264 -14.05 106.44 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.42 -8.35 17.23 17.88 0.98 0.98 48 -8.83 -10.23 24.19 25.68 0.98 0.98 72 -10.71 -14.09 34.40 36.61 0.97 0.97 96 -17.25 50.76 0.95 120 -19.29 63.11 0.93 144 -18.44 80.92 0.88 168 -19.02 96.72 0.82 192 -25.38 112.97 0.76 216 -28.83 127.61 0.70 240 -29.07 140.27 0.63 264 -34.01 151.52 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.98 1.66 1.90 0.89 0.86 48 -0.86 -1.05 1.81 2.04 0.91 0.91 72 -0.88 -1.07 2.01 2.27 0.90 0.90 96 -1.07 2.53 0.88 120 -1.10 2.89 0.86 144 -1.02 3.23 0.83 168 -0.95 3.59 0.79 192 -0.93 4.05 0.73 216 -1.08 4.52 0.65 240 -1.06 4.90 0.58 264 -0.93 4.91 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.04 1.01 0.99 0.93 0.93 48 -0.14 -0.06 1.23 1.21 0.94 0.94 72 -0.16 -0.13 1.50 1.54 0.92 0.93 96 -0.19 1.93 0.91 120 -0.29 2.26 0.88 144 -0.26 2.78 0.82 168 -0.20 3.15 0.77 192 -0.47 3.54 0.72 216 -0.55 3.90 0.67 240 -0.53 4.07 0.61 264 -0.73 4.34 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.28 1.06 1.14 0.93 0.91 48 0.11 0.21 1.22 1.33 0.93 0.91 72 -0.05 0.14 1.53 1.57 0.91 0.89 96 0.05 1.92 0.85 120 0.00 2.28 0.81 144 -0.20 2.51 0.80 168 -0.18 2.79 0.74 192 -0.20 3.14 0.67 216 -0.30 3.30 0.65 240 -0.37 3.59 0.60 264 -0.31 3.56 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.84 4.38 4.64 48 -0.69 -0.92 4.87 5.15 72 -0.71 -0.90 5.57 5.81 96 -0.84 6.75 120 -0.98 7.53 144 -1.03 8.65 168 -0.66 9.77 192 -0.57 10.74 216 -0.42 11.03 240 -0.70 11.45 264 -0.78 11.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.56 4.60 4.77 48 -0.60 -0.45 5.57 5.92 72 -0.57 -0.33 6.97 7.26 96 -0.26 8.74 120 -0.21 9.76 144 -0.47 11.77 168 -0.33 13.49 192 -0.09 14.80 216 -0.40 15.77 240 -0.67 16.84 264 -0.93 17.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.30 5.44 5.75 48 -0.90 -0.25 6.78 7.30 72 -1.01 -0.27 8.57 9.13 96 -0.31 11.33 120 -0.25 13.54 144 -0.41 16.60 168 -0.58 19.16 192 -0.88 21.20 216 -1.33 22.86 240 -1.91 25.14 264 -2.37 26.09 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------