VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY SEPTEMBER 2018 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.03 0.76 0.76 0.99 0.99 16.7 16.7 48 -0.06 -0.04 1.30 1.31 0.98 0.98 25.9 25.8 72 -0.04 -0.02 1.90 1.95 0.96 0.96 34.3 34.4 96 0.01 2.76 0.91 43.1 120 0.04 3.68 0.84 51.7 144 0.09 4.74 0.74 59.6 168 0.15 5.78 0.61 66.4 192 0.16 6.61 0.50 72.0 216 0.19 7.34 0.39 76.4 240 0.20 7.95 0.29 79.8 264 0.26 8.39 0.20 81.6 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 0.03 5.79 5.94 1.00 1.00 11.1 11.1 48 -0.10 0.17 11.34 11.56 0.99 0.99 19.4 19.4 72 0.22 0.54 18.26 18.98 0.98 0.97 27.8 28.1 96 0.84 27.50 0.94 36.6 120 1.05 37.66 0.89 44.6 144 1.45 49.97 0.81 52.7 168 1.84 62.52 0.70 59.6 192 1.95 72.92 0.60 65.6 216 2.10 82.04 0.49 70.3 240 2.17 91.74 0.37 74.6 264 2.71 97.49 0.29 76.7 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.23 8.23 8.44 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.7 48 -1.21 -0.92 16.51 16.70 0.99 0.99 17.0 17.1 72 -1.98 -1.52 26.57 27.56 0.98 0.98 24.8 25.1 96 -2.16 39.71 0.95 32.9 120 -2.82 55.05 0.91 40.7 144 -2.93 73.06 0.83 48.2 168 -2.57 90.73 0.74 55.1 192 -2.60 105.98 0.65 60.8 216 -2.82 120.16 0.54 65.5 240 -3.31 135.74 0.41 69.8 264 -3.46 144.23 0.33 71.7 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.06 0.43 0.43 0.99 0.99 48 0.09 0.08 0.76 0.76 0.98 0.98 72 0.09 0.10 1.10 1.13 0.95 0.95 96 0.10 1.51 0.91 120 0.08 1.94 0.84 144 0.08 2.39 0.77 168 0.07 2.78 0.68 192 0.06 3.13 0.59 216 0.03 3.46 0.50 240 0.02 3.81 0.38 264 0.00 3.97 0.32 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.19 0.62 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.36 -0.35 1.03 1.03 0.95 0.95 72 -0.48 -0.46 1.45 1.47 0.89 0.89 96 -0.55 1.89 0.81 120 -0.63 2.31 0.71 144 -0.66 2.67 0.61 168 -0.66 2.93 0.53 192 -0.67 3.17 0.44 216 -0.69 3.39 0.36 240 -0.70 3.53 0.30 264 -0.73 3.71 0.23 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.14 1.92 1.91 48 -0.25 -0.25 3.29 3.31 72 -0.33 -0.33 4.71 4.78 96 -0.38 6.28 120 -0.40 7.74 144 -0.43 9.31 168 -0.39 10.77 192 -0.38 12.05 216 -0.40 13.06 240 -0.42 13.98 264 -0.45 14.35 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.20 3.15 3.15 48 -0.36 -0.37 5.28 5.24 72 -0.47 -0.49 7.48 7.54 96 -0.57 9.90 120 -0.63 12.39 144 -0.64 14.99 168 -0.61 17.42 192 -0.66 19.43 216 -0.71 21.14 240 -0.68 22.64 264 -0.71 23.27 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.09 2.88 2.99 0.98 0.97 23.6 23.9 48 0.16 0.07 4.49 4.82 0.95 0.93 32.1 32.1 72 0.08 -0.01 5.72 6.01 0.91 0.89 38.0 38.1 96 -0.04 7.12 0.85 43.1 120 -0.05 8.42 0.78 47.7 144 0.08 9.71 0.70 51.9 168 0.18 10.59 0.62 54.8 192 0.35 11.67 0.56 57.2 216 0.21 12.67 0.49 59.7 240 -0.17 13.61 0.42 61.6 264 -0.36 14.39 0.37 62.8 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.26 -1.56 4.20 4.48 0.98 0.98 22.1 22.1 48 -4.00 -4.50 7.31 7.85 0.96 0.95 30.1 30.1 72 -6.29 -6.66 10.01 10.39 0.93 0.92 36.0 36.1 96 -8.39 12.50 0.90 40.7 120 -9.47 14.40 0.86 44.8 144 -10.20 16.47 0.79 49.0 168 -10.90 18.50 0.72 52.9 192 -11.41 20.22 0.66 55.9 216 -11.96 21.81 0.59 58.3 240 -12.32 22.97 0.53 59.7 264 -12.56 24.33 0.45 62.1 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.09 0.39 0.41 0.97 0.97 48 -0.12 -0.11 0.61 0.62 0.92 0.93 72 -0.14 -0.12 0.76 0.77 0.86 0.88 96 -0.14 0.91 0.84 120 -0.15 1.02 0.79 144 -0.17 1.16 0.74 168 -0.20 1.28 0.68 192 -0.22 1.36 0.63 216 -0.25 1.44 0.59 240 -0.29 1.53 0.55 264 -0.32 1.62 0.50 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.36 0.47 0.49 0.94 0.93 48 -0.56 -0.59 0.73 0.76 0.87 0.85 72 -0.67 -0.70 0.88 0.90 0.80 0.77 96 -0.77 1.00 0.71 120 -0.82 1.09 0.63 144 -0.86 1.17 0.54 168 -0.90 1.23 0.46 192 -0.92 1.28 0.41 216 -0.93 1.32 0.35 240 -0.93 1.34 0.30 264 -0.93 1.37 0.25 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.10 1.42 1.42 48 -0.16 -0.16 2.18 2.15 72 -0.21 -0.22 2.76 2.72 96 -0.25 3.23 120 -0.27 3.69 144 -0.30 4.13 168 -0.31 4.44 192 -0.31 4.72 216 -0.26 5.00 240 -0.22 5.23 264 -0.20 5.35 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.22 2.86 2.86 48 -0.30 -0.37 4.25 4.26 72 -0.31 -0.39 5.35 5.33 96 -0.32 6.24 120 -0.28 7.03 144 -0.29 7.82 168 -0.29 8.63 192 -0.29 9.30 216 -0.25 9.84 240 -0.20 10.30 264 -0.16 10.83 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.01 1.02 0.98 1.00 1.00 12.3 12.1 48 0.04 0.02 2.08 2.03 0.98 0.98 22.1 21.8 72 0.03 0.00 3.38 3.33 0.95 0.95 31.4 31.1 96 -0.02 4.90 0.89 40.1 120 -0.07 6.46 0.81 48.0 144 -0.10 7.90 0.71 54.7 168 -0.14 9.24 0.62 59.6 192 -0.12 10.45 0.53 63.4 216 -0.14 11.38 0.46 66.0 240 -0.13 11.90 0.40 67.9 264 -0.21 12.39 0.33 69.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.28 8.48 8.30 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.6 48 -0.56 -0.71 17.86 17.64 0.99 0.99 18.0 17.8 72 -1.03 -1.15 29.89 29.68 0.96 0.96 26.0 25.9 96 -1.49 44.76 0.91 34.1 120 -1.63 60.60 0.84 41.5 144 -1.73 75.29 0.75 48.1 168 -1.93 89.72 0.66 53.3 192 -1.98 103.02 0.55 57.7 216 -1.84 112.66 0.47 60.5 240 -1.35 119.65 0.40 62.9 264 -1.37 127.74 0.32 65.1 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.73 10.83 10.75 1.00 1.00 7.8 7.8 48 -1.71 -1.83 22.50 22.05 0.99 0.99 14.0 13.8 72 -2.70 -2.71 37.66 37.29 0.97 0.97 20.6 20.4 96 -3.61 57.30 0.92 27.8 120 -4.33 78.66 0.85 34.9 144 -5.19 97.69 0.77 40.9 168 -5.49 116.30 0.67 46.2 192 -5.60 134.27 0.56 50.8 216 -5.28 147.70 0.48 53.8 240 -4.80 156.83 0.41 56.0 264 -5.66 168.74 0.33 58.1 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.53 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.02 -0.02 1.01 0.99 0.96 0.97 72 -0.04 -0.03 1.51 1.49 0.92 0.92 96 -0.05 2.07 0.85 120 -0.04 2.64 0.75 144 -0.05 3.14 0.65 168 -0.05 3.60 0.54 192 -0.06 4.00 0.44 216 -0.06 4.28 0.37 240 -0.06 4.47 0.32 264 -0.08 4.69 0.25 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 0.60 0.60 0.98 0.98 48 -0.15 -0.15 1.03 1.04 0.94 0.94 72 -0.18 -0.18 1.46 1.47 0.88 0.88 96 -0.22 1.91 0.80 120 -0.25 2.34 0.70 144 -0.30 2.74 0.58 168 -0.29 3.07 0.47 192 -0.28 3.33 0.39 216 -0.23 3.46 0.34 240 -0.26 3.64 0.28 264 -0.30 3.76 0.22 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.02 2.45 2.42 48 -0.02 -0.03 4.56 4.52 72 -0.02 -0.02 6.60 6.62 96 -0.01 8.85 120 0.03 11.00 144 0.04 12.91 168 0.08 14.62 192 0.12 16.08 216 0.06 16.92 240 0.02 17.60 264 0.02 18.32 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 3.26 3.24 48 -0.19 -0.16 5.77 5.68 72 -0.23 -0.23 8.43 8.37 96 -0.22 11.52 120 -0.20 14.71 144 -0.21 17.61 168 -0.20 20.20 192 -0.16 22.48 216 -0.14 23.99 240 -0.24 24.95 264 -0.26 26.10 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.57 -2.15 8.29 8.35 0.98 0.97 48 -3.24 -2.70 10.56 11.00 0.97 0.96 72 -2.61 -3.54 13.60 14.54 0.95 0.95 96 -4.44 19.08 0.92 120 -4.05 24.05 0.88 144 -3.94 27.96 0.84 168 -6.19 33.16 0.74 192 -8.05 39.08 0.69 216 -9.38 43.68 0.59 240 -7.88 47.89 0.53 264 -6.57 48.42 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.07 -5.37 9.82 9.63 0.98 0.97 48 -5.56 -6.12 12.29 12.46 0.98 0.97 72 -4.10 -6.62 15.67 16.71 0.97 0.96 96 -7.27 22.77 0.94 120 -6.30 29.31 0.91 144 -5.33 35.71 0.88 168 -7.97 44.03 0.83 192 -10.62 52.28 0.74 216 -12.41 64.54 0.61 240 -12.50 74.12 0.55 264 -9.91 75.42 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.11 -7.28 13.38 13.41 0.98 0.98 48 -7.80 -9.23 18.36 19.39 0.98 0.98 72 -7.24 -10.78 24.65 26.27 0.97 0.97 96 -12.05 36.16 0.94 120 -11.21 46.98 0.92 144 -10.41 58.62 0.88 168 -13.94 73.46 0.81 192 -17.27 86.94 0.74 216 -19.75 107.33 0.63 240 -22.25 123.25 0.57 264 -18.48 126.15 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.56 1.30 1.60 0.89 0.89 48 -0.34 -0.57 1.44 1.77 0.91 0.91 72 -0.27 -0.54 1.62 1.95 0.91 0.91 96 -0.50 2.16 0.90 120 -0.45 2.49 0.86 144 -0.40 2.82 0.83 168 -0.41 3.29 0.77 192 -0.47 3.76 0.68 216 -0.52 4.23 0.61 240 -0.65 4.81 0.57 264 -0.55 4.76 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.07 0.81 0.81 0.92 0.91 48 0.11 0.08 0.97 0.99 0.93 0.92 72 0.13 0.07 1.18 1.19 0.92 0.92 96 0.08 1.47 0.88 120 0.10 1.79 0.86 144 0.12 2.10 0.82 168 0.09 2.43 0.76 192 0.06 2.74 0.70 216 0.09 3.24 0.62 240 0.04 3.65 0.56 264 0.07 3.73 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.14 0.88 0.87 0.90 0.90 48 -0.25 -0.27 1.11 1.12 0.90 0.90 72 -0.35 -0.37 1.37 1.36 0.88 0.88 96 -0.41 1.57 0.83 120 -0.41 1.90 0.77 144 -0.43 2.04 0.76 168 -0.42 2.22 0.73 192 -0.51 2.52 0.66 216 -0.56 2.75 0.61 240 -0.62 2.98 0.55 264 -0.58 3.22 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -1.00 3.61 3.69 48 -0.87 -1.09 3.94 4.24 72 -0.94 -1.20 4.57 4.80 96 -1.23 5.53 120 -1.27 6.32 144 -1.27 6.97 168 -1.23 7.53 192 -1.15 8.38 216 -1.04 9.16 240 -1.00 9.58 264 -0.82 9.83 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.66 3.60 3.67 48 -0.79 -0.76 4.23 4.38 72 -0.78 -0.82 5.04 5.23 96 -0.82 6.17 120 -0.88 7.24 144 -0.78 8.13 168 -0.56 9.23 192 -0.38 10.48 216 -0.04 11.77 240 -0.06 12.98 264 -0.14 13.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -0.87 5.19 4.96 48 -1.12 -1.15 6.65 6.35 72 -1.28 -1.35 8.11 7.84 96 -1.47 9.76 120 -1.59 11.73 144 -1.40 13.81 168 -1.13 15.81 192 -0.86 18.11 216 -0.60 20.51 240 -0.62 22.43 264 -0.90 22.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.27 -4.84 9.44 8.90 0.96 0.97 48 -6.63 -7.06 12.14 12.02 0.97 0.97 72 -5.96 -6.56 15.54 15.93 0.94 0.94 96 -3.72 21.82 0.89 120 -1.70 27.84 0.85 144 0.01 35.63 0.79 168 0.67 44.69 0.64 192 -3.32 51.47 0.54 216 -4.00 57.15 0.47 240 -2.80 69.94 0.31 264 -4.91 72.51 0.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 56 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.04 -6.95 12.13 11.14 0.98 0.98 48 -10.40 -9.92 16.78 15.82 0.98 0.98 72 -8.86 -8.66 22.27 21.62 0.96 0.96 96 -5.06 29.42 0.92 120 -2.39 39.47 0.89 144 -1.50 51.60 0.84 168 5.06 68.92 0.71 192 5.11 80.47 0.63 216 1.48 86.91 0.56 240 1.38 105.28 0.41 264 -1.80 116.42 0.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 56 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.33 -7.11 17.30 15.56 0.98 0.98 48 -12.72 -11.94 24.57 22.59 0.98 0.98 72 -12.67 -11.86 34.42 32.69 0.96 0.96 96 -7.62 45.42 0.94 120 -6.86 61.26 0.90 144 -5.93 80.46 0.87 168 6.27 104.56 0.73 192 5.67 120.70 0.64 216 -3.62 129.47 0.57 240 -5.88 155.00 0.43 264 -10.90 171.49 0.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.07 1.21 1.10 0.88 0.88 48 -0.59 -0.23 1.43 1.29 0.92 0.91 72 -0.58 -0.25 1.71 1.52 0.90 0.91 96 -0.17 1.78 0.89 120 -0.02 2.27 0.82 144 -0.11 2.71 0.75 168 0.19 3.24 0.64 192 0.49 3.85 0.52 216 0.52 3.87 0.51 240 0.54 4.30 0.50 264 0.42 4.99 0.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 0.01 0.77 0.81 0.93 0.93 48 -0.05 -0.01 0.95 0.98 0.94 0.94 72 -0.03 0.08 1.29 1.31 0.92 0.91 96 0.12 1.68 0.90 120 0.03 1.99 0.86 144 0.02 2.45 0.81 168 0.40 3.07 0.68 192 0.49 3.37 0.62 216 0.17 3.59 0.55 240 0.04 4.01 0.46 264 -0.03 4.12 0.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.20 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.91 48 -0.02 0.04 1.14 1.12 0.90 0.88 72 -0.20 -0.17 1.45 1.38 0.85 0.85 96 -0.29 1.71 0.77 120 -0.29 1.92 0.73 144 -0.30 2.24 0.63 168 -0.23 2.33 0.60 192 -0.35 2.55 0.53 216 -0.54 2.81 0.51 240 -0.53 2.90 0.47 264 -0.65 2.93 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.72 3.56 3.55 48 -0.75 -0.77 3.91 3.88 72 -0.83 -0.81 4.52 4.64 96 -1.02 5.47 120 -0.94 6.24 144 -1.07 6.84 168 -1.19 8.01 192 -1.31 8.77 216 -1.55 9.28 240 -1.65 10.22 264 -1.58 10.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.48 3.77 3.61 48 -0.49 -0.56 4.58 4.42 72 -0.62 -0.69 5.94 5.76 96 -0.85 7.19 120 -0.99 8.92 144 -0.90 10.74 168 -0.93 13.07 192 -1.19 14.34 216 -1.36 14.74 240 -1.51 16.81 264 -1.61 17.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.69 5.58 5.25 48 -0.91 -0.97 7.13 6.74 72 -1.23 -1.26 9.52 9.49 96 -1.56 12.29 120 -1.84 14.99 144 -0.95 18.06 168 -0.89 22.01 192 -1.81 23.36 216 -2.31 24.00 240 -2.57 26.71 264 -2.37 27.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.33 -2.69 9.41 9.01 0.97 0.97 48 -0.79 -1.58 11.79 11.32 0.97 0.97 72 -1.09 -0.53 15.26 14.20 0.97 0.97 96 -0.02 18.48 0.95 120 -0.18 23.82 0.91 144 0.34 29.13 0.86 168 1.69 35.00 0.80 192 2.40 40.47 0.74 216 3.60 42.61 0.70 240 6.20 47.12 0.69 264 7.87 52.72 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 120 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.62 -3.02 12.32 11.37 0.97 0.97 48 -1.62 -0.57 14.68 14.58 0.97 0.98 72 -0.45 2.09 19.40 19.77 0.96 0.96 96 3.44 25.97 0.94 120 3.54 33.32 0.90 144 4.05 41.57 0.84 168 4.34 50.24 0.79 192 4.19 57.27 0.74 216 5.34 60.99 0.73 240 8.08 66.77 0.69 264 10.44 72.24 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 128 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.45 -4.42 21.29 19.41 0.96 0.96 48 -5.57 -2.07 23.59 23.43 0.97 0.97 72 -4.37 0.73 29.36 30.58 0.96 0.96 96 1.31 39.18 0.94 120 1.58 51.43 0.90 144 0.65 64.86 0.86 168 -1.11 77.21 0.81 192 -2.96 87.39 0.78 216 -3.65 94.61 0.76 240 -2.77 102.55 0.72 264 -0.39 111.47 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 127 12 UTC = 127 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.42 1.56 1.45 0.88 0.89 48 -0.24 -0.30 1.71 1.59 0.91 0.92 72 -0.16 -0.21 1.87 1.75 0.91 0.92 96 -0.17 1.97 0.90 120 -0.12 2.30 0.86 144 -0.11 2.70 0.79 168 -0.16 2.93 0.74 192 -0.16 3.19 0.70 216 -0.07 3.53 0.68 240 -0.01 3.81 0.65 264 0.10 4.08 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 0.01 0.97 0.95 0.90 0.90 48 0.01 0.07 1.11 1.12 0.92 0.93 72 0.07 0.13 1.32 1.34 0.91 0.91 96 0.15 1.58 0.89 120 0.17 1.87 0.85 144 0.13 2.23 0.79 168 0.02 2.51 0.75 192 -0.03 2.75 0.71 216 -0.11 3.02 0.68 240 -0.13 3.18 0.65 264 -0.10 3.32 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.04 1.15 1.11 0.89 0.90 48 -0.27 -0.12 1.36 1.33 0.90 0.91 72 -0.30 -0.15 1.63 1.62 0.88 0.88 96 -0.22 1.87 0.86 120 -0.27 2.16 0.82 144 -0.29 2.54 0.75 168 -0.30 2.68 0.73 192 -0.40 2.97 0.69 216 -0.50 3.14 0.66 240 -0.67 3.28 0.65 264 -0.82 3.45 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -0.81 3.70 3.66 48 -1.06 -0.87 4.14 4.08 72 -1.09 -0.88 4.66 4.63 96 -0.95 5.25 120 -0.98 6.07 144 -1.05 6.69 168 -1.05 7.37 192 -1.17 7.91 216 -1.29 8.31 240 -1.36 8.70 264 -1.42 9.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.61 3.95 3.93 48 -0.94 -0.79 4.80 4.79 72 -1.06 -0.92 5.75 5.75 96 -1.08 6.99 120 -1.11 8.03 144 -1.16 9.26 168 -1.22 10.11 192 -1.36 10.95 216 -1.57 11.59 240 -1.78 12.36 264 -1.87 12.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.50 5.17 5.16 48 -0.71 -0.79 6.56 6.53 72 -0.92 -0.98 8.09 8.21 96 -1.20 9.90 120 -1.23 11.94 144 -1.22 13.97 168 -1.20 15.49 192 -1.39 17.13 216 -1.48 18.32 240 -1.58 19.69 264 -1.47 21.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 149 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.73 -4.23 8.36 9.86 0.98 0.98 48 0.10 -2.71 10.55 11.99 0.98 0.98 72 -1.03 -3.58 13.08 16.76 0.97 0.97 96 -5.22 20.39 0.95 120 -6.77 26.88 0.93 144 -4.85 31.90 0.88 168 -3.79 39.58 0.81 192 -2.73 43.90 0.80 216 -3.45 52.74 0.70 240 -9.13 60.97 0.62 264 -8.84 60.97 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.82 -10.24 11.46 14.96 0.99 0.98 48 -5.86 -8.52 14.34 18.02 0.98 0.98 72 -7.83 -10.85 19.78 25.72 0.97 0.96 96 -14.22 32.03 0.94 120 -16.21 42.68 0.91 144 -16.07 47.50 0.88 168 -15.53 61.05 0.82 192 -14.13 67.76 0.77 216 -13.34 78.47 0.69 240 -21.88 83.97 0.63 264 -22.90 91.80 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.48 -9.68 12.47 15.15 0.99 0.99 48 -6.49 -9.51 16.58 18.94 0.99 0.99 72 -9.98 -12.75 23.54 28.03 0.98 0.98 96 -18.83 37.60 0.96 120 -23.38 51.33 0.92 144 -25.07 60.98 0.88 168 -27.06 77.53 0.84 192 -24.28 89.78 0.78 216 -22.93 102.03 0.70 240 -33.25 104.99 0.66 264 -35.39 115.21 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.56 1.33 1.22 0.90 0.90 48 -0.77 -0.55 1.44 1.37 0.93 0.94 72 -0.80 -0.57 1.62 1.58 0.92 0.91 96 -0.58 1.81 0.86 120 -0.65 2.21 0.81 144 -0.83 2.50 0.79 168 -0.85 2.80 0.77 192 -0.76 3.22 0.72 216 -0.75 3.66 0.64 240 -0.82 3.89 0.59 264 -1.03 4.04 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.04 0.93 0.93 0.90 0.91 48 0.01 0.04 1.11 1.12 0.92 0.92 72 -0.03 -0.03 1.24 1.21 0.91 0.91 96 -0.19 1.54 0.85 120 -0.17 1.96 0.81 144 -0.34 2.26 0.80 168 -0.43 2.64 0.76 192 -0.43 2.91 0.73 216 -0.36 3.18 0.68 240 -0.63 3.25 0.65 264 -0.62 3.44 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.13 1.06 1.05 0.90 0.88 48 -0.13 -0.06 1.30 1.33 0.89 0.90 72 -0.23 -0.08 1.51 1.58 0.89 0.86 96 -0.05 1.95 0.85 120 -0.23 2.36 0.78 144 -0.29 2.69 0.72 168 -0.40 3.16 0.63 192 -0.53 3.30 0.65 216 -0.50 3.16 0.69 240 -0.50 3.59 0.61 264 -0.51 3.76 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.49 3.80 3.79 48 -0.68 -0.39 4.19 4.21 72 -0.70 -0.35 4.83 4.97 96 -0.37 5.71 120 -0.13 6.76 144 -0.40 7.45 168 -0.77 8.07 192 -0.71 9.16 216 -0.23 10.27 240 -0.02 10.57 264 -0.53 10.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.32 4.08 3.89 48 -0.61 -0.42 4.89 4.81 72 -0.57 -0.28 5.69 5.92 96 -0.04 7.30 120 0.03 8.84 144 0.01 10.16 168 -0.36 11.27 192 -0.49 13.10 216 -0.04 14.75 240 0.05 15.63 264 -0.08 16.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.55 5.01 4.83 48 -0.83 -0.58 5.95 5.86 72 -0.78 -0.51 7.24 7.02 96 -0.07 8.87 120 0.07 11.04 144 0.13 12.76 168 -0.17 15.51 192 -0.03 18.05 216 0.97 19.80 240 1.64 20.73 264 0.91 22.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.46 -3.09 9.24 9.13 0.74 0.74 48 -3.19 -2.78 9.63 9.64 0.84 0.82 72 -3.96 -3.31 10.46 10.21 0.85 0.84 96 -4.20 10.87 0.83 120 -4.72 11.58 0.81 144 -4.49 12.44 0.77 168 -4.28 13.17 0.73 192 -3.86 13.92 0.66 216 -3.71 14.51 0.61 240 -3.83 16.06 0.50 264 -3.73 16.41 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.60 -4.87 12.01 11.43 0.65 0.63 48 -5.07 -4.45 12.28 11.88 0.78 0.73 72 -5.94 -5.08 13.38 12.70 0.80 0.77 96 -6.23 13.40 0.76 120 -6.80 14.11 0.76 144 -6.62 14.78 0.74 168 -6.52 15.46 0.70 192 -6.47 15.99 0.65 216 -6.54 16.49 0.63 240 -6.94 17.58 0.60 264 -7.01 18.04 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.86 -6.24 14.36 13.45 0.67 0.65 48 -8.18 -7.97 15.85 15.31 0.79 0.78 72 -10.26 -10.07 18.06 17.42 0.81 0.81 96 -12.04 19.14 0.81 120 -12.93 20.57 0.78 144 -13.09 21.99 0.73 168 -13.34 23.28 0.67 192 -13.47 23.95 0.65 216 -13.59 24.51 0.67 240 -13.80 25.07 0.68 264 -13.99 26.37 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.29 0.99 1.03 0.54 0.46 48 -0.39 -0.27 1.03 1.06 0.63 0.60 72 -0.38 -0.24 1.06 1.10 0.66 0.62 96 -0.21 1.15 0.61 120 -0.18 1.23 0.58 144 -0.17 1.30 0.57 168 -0.16 1.37 0.54 192 -0.20 1.41 0.50 216 -0.22 1.48 0.45 240 -0.26 1.49 0.43 264 -0.28 1.53 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.21 0.79 0.77 0.62 0.55 48 0.19 0.20 0.83 0.81 0.69 0.62 72 0.18 0.19 0.86 0.83 0.71 0.66 96 0.16 0.85 0.67 120 0.13 0.89 0.65 144 0.11 0.92 0.63 168 0.09 0.96 0.61 192 0.05 1.02 0.58 216 0.04 1.06 0.56 240 0.05 1.10 0.52 264 0.03 1.11 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.36 0.66 0.66 0.60 0.60 48 -0.51 -0.55 0.82 0.83 0.67 0.67 72 -0.59 -0.64 0.91 0.93 0.68 0.69 96 -0.67 0.99 0.67 120 -0.69 1.03 0.65 144 -0.73 1.09 0.65 168 -0.75 1.13 0.62 192 -0.76 1.15 0.63 216 -0.77 1.18 0.61 240 -0.79 1.22 0.59 264 -0.81 1.27 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.36 3.25 3.40 48 -0.47 -0.42 3.53 3.70 72 -0.50 -0.49 3.86 3.90 96 -0.48 4.27 120 -0.55 4.63 144 -0.67 5.06 168 -0.74 5.37 192 -0.84 5.67 216 -0.85 5.87 240 -0.87 6.11 264 -0.90 6.31 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -1.01 3.62 3.65 48 -0.97 -1.07 3.97 4.03 72 -1.01 -1.06 4.33 4.36 96 -1.15 4.68 120 -1.29 5.09 144 -1.36 5.51 168 -1.43 5.93 192 -1.59 6.34 216 -1.69 6.61 240 -1.62 6.87 264 -1.62 7.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.67 4.51 4.52 48 -0.43 -0.68 5.35 5.34 72 -0.48 -0.61 6.16 6.10 96 -0.57 6.82 120 -0.66 7.43 144 -0.59 8.05 168 -0.62 8.59 192 -0.77 9.07 216 -1.04 9.38 240 -1.22 9.72 264 -1.41 10.17 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.66 -3.42 9.29 9.19 0.98 0.97 48 -3.53 -3.78 12.10 12.23 0.98 0.98 72 -3.32 -3.38 15.77 15.99 0.97 0.96 96 -2.75 21.38 0.93 120 -2.17 27.80 0.90 144 -1.42 34.99 0.84 168 -0.98 42.64 0.76 192 -1.51 49.40 0.68 216 -1.62 55.06 0.61 240 -0.16 62.35 0.52 264 1.32 66.57 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 387 12 UTC = 379 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.93 -4.77 11.97 11.32 0.98 0.98 48 -5.38 -4.73 15.35 15.24 0.98 0.98 72 -4.43 -3.56 20.64 21.04 0.97 0.97 96 -2.66 28.26 0.95 120 -1.90 36.99 0.91 144 -0.92 48.23 0.86 168 -0.29 60.52 0.79 192 -0.39 70.35 0.72 216 -0.65 78.58 0.67 240 0.04 90.17 0.57 264 0.88 97.71 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 399 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.14 -5.68 18.61 17.81 0.98 0.98 48 -7.64 -6.44 23.08 23.14 0.98 0.98 72 -7.56 -5.97 30.95 31.73 0.97 0.97 96 -5.88 42.37 0.95 120 -5.96 56.22 0.92 144 -5.39 73.66 0.87 168 -4.52 91.12 0.81 192 -4.96 104.96 0.75 216 -6.68 117.94 0.70 240 -7.75 134.97 0.62 264 -8.39 146.50 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 389 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.37 1.42 1.39 0.89 0.90 48 -0.42 -0.36 1.57 1.55 0.92 0.92 72 -0.38 -0.33 1.77 1.75 0.92 0.92 96 -0.30 2.01 0.90 120 -0.26 2.36 0.86 144 -0.25 2.79 0.81 168 -0.24 3.18 0.75 192 -0.19 3.60 0.69 216 -0.15 3.89 0.66 240 -0.17 4.34 0.61 264 -0.18 4.67 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 416 12 UTC = 404 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.04 0.90 0.89 0.93 0.92 48 0.04 0.07 1.06 1.07 0.94 0.94 72 0.07 0.10 1.32 1.34 0.93 0.93 96 0.10 1.66 0.90 120 0.08 2.01 0.87 144 0.08 2.43 0.81 168 0.08 2.83 0.76 192 0.09 3.15 0.71 216 0.04 3.46 0.66 240 -0.01 3.81 0.60 264 -0.07 3.96 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 439 12 UTC = 428 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.01 1.09 1.06 0.91 0.91 48 -0.18 -0.14 1.32 1.31 0.92 0.92 72 -0.28 -0.22 1.63 1.62 0.90 0.89 96 -0.31 1.96 0.86 120 -0.36 2.28 0.82 144 -0.39 2.62 0.76 168 -0.36 2.81 0.74 192 -0.45 3.08 0.70 216 -0.50 3.29 0.66 240 -0.59 3.48 0.64 264 -0.68 3.62 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 436 12 UTC = 425 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.77 3.62 3.62 48 -0.92 -0.85 4.03 4.06 72 -0.98 -0.89 4.64 4.72 96 -0.96 5.53 120 -0.98 6.43 144 -1.00 7.18 168 -1.03 7.92 192 -1.03 8.68 216 -1.13 9.22 240 -1.13 9.85 264 -1.17 10.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 387 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.60 3.76 3.76 48 -0.74 -0.70 4.58 4.62 72 -0.83 -0.80 5.69 5.75 96 -0.88 7.09 120 -0.94 8.47 144 -0.91 9.86 168 -0.86 11.17 192 -0.90 12.39 216 -0.89 13.24 240 -0.97 14.37 264 -1.05 14.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 428 12 UTC = 416 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.59 5.06 4.96 48 -0.81 -0.80 6.54 6.46 72 -0.99 -0.99 8.47 8.44 96 -1.14 10.61 120 -1.22 13.09 144 -1.04 15.52 168 -0.95 17.86 192 -1.02 19.76 216 -1.01 21.28 240 -1.05 22.97 264 -1.06 23.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 425 12 UTC = 413 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 -0.26 8.95 9.02 0.98 0.98 48 1.23 -0.57 12.56 12.16 0.97 0.98 72 0.29 -1.32 16.77 17.37 0.96 0.96 96 -3.01 23.48 0.94 120 -4.80 32.98 0.88 144 -4.29 39.04 0.84 168 -1.70 45.97 0.76 192 -0.65 52.24 0.71 216 -2.37 58.76 0.64 240 -3.01 61.81 0.59 264 -0.46 60.94 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.76 -5.39 11.74 12.37 0.98 0.98 48 -5.37 -5.74 16.24 17.64 0.98 0.98 72 -7.48 -6.96 24.13 25.74 0.96 0.97 96 -9.86 35.49 0.94 120 -10.88 48.37 0.89 144 -10.54 58.13 0.85 168 -6.71 68.80 0.78 192 -3.99 73.94 0.75 216 -5.88 85.86 0.69 240 -5.74 89.62 0.63 264 -2.74 93.57 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.78 -5.11 15.28 15.80 0.98 0.98 48 -7.08 -6.21 21.95 23.26 0.98 0.98 72 -10.50 -8.16 32.02 33.67 0.97 0.97 96 -12.79 48.37 0.94 120 -15.13 65.25 0.90 144 -15.73 79.73 0.85 168 -11.90 94.84 0.79 192 -8.63 104.62 0.76 216 -10.54 121.60 0.70 240 -9.80 124.51 0.65 264 -8.33 129.90 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.59 1.66 1.68 0.90 0.89 48 -0.70 -0.61 1.80 1.85 0.93 0.92 72 -0.74 -0.57 2.06 2.16 0.91 0.90 96 -0.58 2.53 0.88 120 -0.62 2.94 0.84 144 -0.49 3.47 0.79 168 -0.35 4.07 0.71 192 -0.25 4.47 0.69 216 -0.17 4.84 0.64 240 -0.07 5.17 0.60 264 -0.10 5.34 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.03 0.97 0.97 0.92 0.93 48 -0.10 -0.04 1.22 1.22 0.93 0.94 72 -0.16 -0.05 1.46 1.47 0.92 0.92 96 -0.15 1.85 0.89 120 -0.12 2.32 0.84 144 -0.14 2.73 0.77 168 -0.07 3.16 0.72 192 -0.04 3.46 0.70 216 -0.17 3.91 0.63 240 -0.13 3.87 0.60 264 -0.07 3.96 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.18 1.08 1.05 0.91 0.91 48 0.00 0.11 1.30 1.30 0.90 0.91 72 -0.08 0.06 1.59 1.58 0.89 0.86 96 0.06 1.87 0.85 120 -0.10 2.26 0.80 144 -0.13 2.53 0.75 168 -0.22 2.95 0.65 192 -0.30 3.13 0.65 216 -0.16 3.07 0.69 240 -0.13 3.39 0.64 264 -0.10 3.36 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.66 4.46 4.57 48 -0.75 -0.61 4.90 5.05 72 -0.84 -0.55 5.63 5.73 96 -0.50 6.62 120 -0.36 7.69 144 -0.47 8.70 168 -0.57 9.39 192 -0.09 10.34 216 0.30 10.86 240 0.77 11.45 264 0.07 11.09 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.45 4.60 4.63 48 -0.39 -0.41 5.57 5.65 72 -0.28 -0.25 6.95 7.05 96 0.08 8.50 120 0.26 10.24 144 0.08 11.67 168 -0.46 13.01 192 -0.45 14.70 216 -0.39 15.91 240 -0.37 16.77 264 -0.50 16.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.55 5.72 5.61 48 -0.81 -0.48 7.04 7.18 72 -0.76 -0.46 8.95 9.19 96 -0.12 11.81 120 0.02 14.56 144 -0.22 17.15 168 -0.58 19.71 192 -0.79 22.14 216 -0.31 23.98 240 -0.49 24.78 264 -1.19 25.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------