VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY NOVEMBER 2018 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.07 0.88 0.89 0.99 0.99 15.6 16.0 48 0.17 0.14 1.58 1.58 0.98 0.98 24.3 24.7 72 0.24 0.21 2.43 2.37 0.96 0.96 32.8 32.9 96 0.26 3.37 0.92 41.6 120 0.31 4.51 0.86 50.1 144 0.33 5.67 0.78 57.3 168 0.32 6.86 0.68 64.7 192 0.33 8.03 0.56 70.6 216 0.35 9.07 0.46 75.7 240 0.31 9.99 0.36 79.3 264 0.26 10.66 0.28 81.5 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.01 6.38 6.61 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.4 48 0.24 0.19 12.93 13.14 0.99 0.99 16.8 17.0 72 0.28 0.23 21.65 21.44 0.98 0.98 24.6 24.4 96 0.23 32.47 0.95 32.5 120 0.15 44.66 0.90 40.2 144 -0.23 57.29 0.84 47.1 168 -0.74 70.90 0.75 53.6 192 -1.25 84.76 0.64 59.5 216 -1.61 97.18 0.53 64.1 240 -2.26 106.67 0.44 67.0 264 -2.51 115.21 0.36 69.5 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.45 8.66 8.77 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.7 48 -1.32 -1.25 17.43 17.46 0.99 0.99 13.3 13.3 72 -2.45 -2.19 28.77 28.63 0.98 0.98 19.5 19.5 96 -3.16 43.19 0.95 26.3 120 -4.40 60.48 0.91 33.7 144 -6.09 77.79 0.85 40.3 168 -7.95 96.94 0.76 46.7 192 -9.51 117.30 0.65 52.7 216 -10.70 135.62 0.53 57.0 240 -10.21 147.88 0.46 59.8 264 -8.94 159.21 0.38 62.3 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 0.47 0.47 0.99 0.99 48 0.01 0.02 0.84 0.85 0.98 0.98 72 -0.01 0.00 1.27 1.26 0.95 0.95 96 -0.03 1.75 0.91 120 -0.06 2.28 0.84 144 -0.11 2.78 0.76 168 -0.17 3.32 0.66 192 -0.22 3.83 0.54 216 -0.27 4.29 0.42 240 -0.27 4.57 0.36 264 -0.24 4.84 0.29 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.11 0.62 0.61 0.98 0.98 48 -0.24 -0.22 1.02 1.02 0.95 0.95 72 -0.33 -0.30 1.45 1.44 0.90 0.90 96 -0.37 1.87 0.83 120 -0.44 2.30 0.74 144 -0.50 2.69 0.64 168 -0.56 3.04 0.53 192 -0.61 3.33 0.44 216 -0.62 3.57 0.36 240 -0.56 3.76 0.29 264 -0.49 3.90 0.24 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.09 2.11 2.15 48 -0.20 -0.18 3.74 3.79 72 -0.27 -0.25 5.46 5.42 96 -0.31 7.26 120 -0.38 9.00 144 -0.43 10.69 168 -0.48 12.35 192 -0.57 13.86 216 -0.62 15.16 240 -0.46 16.02 264 -0.33 16.80 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.11 3.19 3.18 48 -0.28 -0.22 5.28 5.23 72 -0.36 -0.28 7.54 7.53 96 -0.36 10.13 120 -0.49 12.84 144 -0.56 15.54 168 -0.67 18.24 192 -0.75 20.83 216 -0.72 22.72 240 -0.52 24.12 264 -0.34 25.30 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.01 3.02 2.90 0.97 0.97 23.7 25.0 48 -0.39 -0.30 4.32 4.41 0.95 0.94 31.2 32.2 72 -0.74 -0.64 5.29 5.48 0.92 0.90 36.1 37.2 96 -1.03 6.27 0.87 40.9 120 -1.54 7.11 0.84 44.0 144 -2.23 8.05 0.81 46.9 168 -2.93 9.11 0.77 49.8 192 -3.62 10.20 0.72 52.8 216 -4.18 11.18 0.68 55.6 240 -4.24 12.26 0.61 57.9 264 -3.90 12.97 0.54 60.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.07 -1.12 4.09 4.01 0.99 0.99 18.2 18.3 48 -3.91 -3.93 7.17 7.15 0.97 0.97 24.9 25.2 72 -6.22 -6.23 10.11 10.14 0.95 0.94 30.4 30.5 96 -8.09 12.74 0.91 35.2 120 -9.72 15.33 0.87 39.7 144 -11.22 18.03 0.82 43.8 168 -12.71 20.91 0.75 48.1 192 -14.38 23.83 0.68 51.8 216 -15.96 26.85 0.60 55.5 240 -17.03 29.16 0.51 58.8 264 -17.67 31.17 0.42 61.9 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.10 0.38 0.41 0.97 0.97 48 -0.14 -0.13 0.59 0.61 0.92 0.93 72 -0.15 -0.14 0.72 0.75 0.88 0.89 96 -0.14 0.84 0.86 120 -0.16 0.92 0.83 144 -0.17 1.01 0.80 168 -0.18 1.12 0.75 192 -0.17 1.22 0.71 216 -0.17 1.30 0.67 240 -0.18 1.40 0.62 264 -0.18 1.47 0.58 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.35 0.47 0.49 0.93 0.93 48 -0.54 -0.58 0.73 0.76 0.86 0.84 72 -0.66 -0.70 0.88 0.91 0.79 0.77 96 -0.77 1.01 0.71 120 -0.82 1.09 0.65 144 -0.85 1.15 0.60 168 -0.88 1.21 0.54 192 -0.91 1.28 0.47 216 -0.95 1.35 0.42 240 -0.98 1.40 0.37 264 -1.02 1.44 0.33 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.12 1.38 1.37 48 -0.24 -0.22 2.04 2.00 72 -0.29 -0.28 2.47 2.42 96 -0.27 2.78 120 -0.27 3.10 144 -0.27 3.43 168 -0.26 3.74 192 -0.23 4.08 216 -0.21 4.41 240 -0.19 4.67 264 -0.16 4.96 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.34 2.88 2.86 48 -0.59 -0.57 4.32 4.34 72 -0.68 -0.66 5.49 5.48 96 -0.70 6.45 120 -0.71 7.36 144 -0.66 8.23 168 -0.64 9.14 192 -0.57 9.97 216 -0.56 10.76 240 -0.55 11.58 264 -0.54 12.24 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 0.81 0.81 1.00 1.00 12.0 12.1 48 -0.13 -0.12 1.56 1.51 0.99 0.98 20.5 20.4 72 -0.14 -0.13 2.45 2.36 0.96 0.96 28.3 28.0 96 -0.13 3.33 0.93 35.6 120 -0.11 4.43 0.87 42.9 144 -0.05 5.56 0.79 49.4 168 0.04 6.58 0.70 54.5 192 0.11 7.71 0.60 59.6 216 0.16 8.65 0.49 64.5 240 0.22 9.64 0.37 68.3 264 0.24 10.21 0.30 70.3 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.60 0.49 7.29 7.35 1.00 1.00 9.3 9.4 48 0.84 0.70 14.61 14.38 0.99 0.99 16.7 16.5 72 1.14 1.01 23.64 22.98 0.97 0.97 23.9 23.5 96 1.36 32.79 0.94 30.1 120 1.92 44.35 0.90 36.9 144 2.58 57.64 0.83 43.4 168 3.34 70.44 0.74 48.9 192 4.12 83.32 0.64 54.1 216 4.80 93.58 0.54 58.2 240 5.35 105.50 0.41 62.6 264 5.73 112.82 0.34 65.1 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.31 9.54 9.59 1.00 1.00 7.9 8.0 48 -0.61 -0.80 18.74 18.67 0.99 0.99 13.8 13.7 72 -0.79 -1.07 30.05 29.70 0.97 0.98 19.7 19.6 96 -1.27 42.95 0.95 25.6 120 -1.33 58.52 0.90 32.0 144 -1.42 76.15 0.84 38.2 168 -1.27 94.30 0.75 43.9 192 -1.06 113.80 0.64 49.5 216 -0.10 127.19 0.54 53.6 240 0.96 143.53 0.41 57.9 264 1.72 153.26 0.34 60.5 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.04 0.48 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 0.04 0.03 0.88 0.89 0.97 0.97 72 0.04 0.03 1.30 1.28 0.94 0.94 96 0.04 1.71 0.89 120 0.05 2.17 0.82 144 0.03 2.65 0.73 168 0.01 3.14 0.63 192 -0.01 3.55 0.52 216 0.01 3.85 0.43 240 0.04 4.18 0.33 264 0.08 4.37 0.26 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.10 0.58 0.59 0.99 0.99 48 -0.16 -0.17 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 72 -0.21 -0.22 1.34 1.35 0.93 0.93 96 -0.27 1.72 0.88 120 -0.31 2.10 0.82 144 -0.35 2.54 0.74 168 -0.38 2.91 0.66 192 -0.42 3.28 0.56 216 -0.42 3.55 0.49 240 -0.42 3.83 0.40 264 -0.43 3.96 0.33 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.10 2.17 2.19 48 -0.16 -0.16 3.92 3.87 72 -0.21 -0.21 5.54 5.42 96 -0.24 6.98 120 -0.29 8.58 144 -0.37 10.27 168 -0.44 11.81 192 -0.44 13.37 216 -0.36 14.66 240 -0.35 15.99 264 -0.33 16.71 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 3.19 3.22 48 -0.15 -0.15 5.40 5.36 72 -0.20 -0.22 7.56 7.51 96 -0.26 9.72 120 -0.32 12.21 144 -0.39 14.78 168 -0.45 17.35 192 -0.48 19.86 216 -0.44 21.88 240 -0.36 23.99 264 -0.26 25.23 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 0.23 7.49 7.96 0.99 0.99 48 0.19 -0.18 10.90 11.28 0.99 0.99 72 1.93 -0.10 16.00 16.37 0.97 0.97 96 1.47 23.17 0.94 120 2.40 31.94 0.90 144 5.62 41.71 0.80 168 8.66 50.34 0.73 192 4.50 56.90 0.71 216 4.79 62.24 0.65 240 3.13 69.17 0.60 264 5.37 72.32 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.30 -3.20 10.20 10.61 0.99 0.99 48 -4.76 -4.72 15.30 16.12 0.99 0.99 72 -2.85 -4.96 22.97 23.28 0.98 0.98 96 -3.58 33.73 0.95 120 -2.92 45.82 0.92 144 -0.90 56.74 0.87 168 4.28 71.08 0.80 192 2.53 84.99 0.76 216 5.83 93.06 0.73 240 6.52 105.57 0.66 264 11.89 117.58 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.38 -5.14 14.19 14.13 0.99 0.99 48 -8.69 -8.62 23.21 23.33 0.99 0.99 72 -6.45 -8.65 34.38 33.61 0.98 0.98 96 -8.12 46.85 0.96 120 -8.95 65.02 0.93 144 -9.04 81.23 0.88 168 -3.70 101.97 0.83 192 -3.72 125.96 0.76 216 -0.65 141.31 0.73 240 4.79 156.90 0.66 264 11.07 177.85 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.36 1.44 1.59 0.94 0.94 48 -0.26 -0.37 1.69 1.82 0.96 0.95 72 -0.19 -0.34 2.02 2.10 0.94 0.94 96 -0.33 2.50 0.93 120 -0.32 3.01 0.89 144 -0.35 3.64 0.83 168 -0.23 4.36 0.77 192 -0.08 5.03 0.72 216 0.18 5.55 0.69 240 0.42 6.16 0.63 264 0.85 6.64 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.05 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.96 48 -0.10 -0.11 1.18 1.23 0.96 0.96 72 -0.07 -0.10 1.56 1.53 0.95 0.95 96 -0.13 1.95 0.93 120 -0.19 2.47 0.88 144 -0.22 2.90 0.84 168 -0.09 3.53 0.79 192 0.02 4.10 0.73 216 0.12 4.56 0.68 240 0.21 4.94 0.64 264 0.33 5.41 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.11 0.98 1.01 0.94 0.93 48 -0.12 -0.02 1.24 1.32 0.93 0.92 72 -0.15 -0.07 1.56 1.58 0.90 0.90 96 -0.11 1.84 0.87 120 -0.20 2.27 0.81 144 -0.36 2.67 0.75 168 -0.49 3.01 0.69 192 -0.44 3.23 0.66 216 -0.50 3.51 0.60 240 -0.20 3.68 0.56 264 -0.15 3.64 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -0.98 3.85 4.05 48 -1.09 -1.12 4.44 4.60 72 -1.13 -1.18 5.22 5.34 96 -1.27 6.35 120 -1.44 7.55 144 -1.48 8.63 168 -1.54 9.85 192 -1.38 10.89 216 -1.27 11.16 240 -1.10 12.03 264 -1.26 12.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.74 4.24 4.39 48 -0.95 -0.96 5.22 5.37 72 -1.14 -0.97 6.55 6.64 96 -1.20 8.36 120 -1.32 9.92 144 -1.60 11.34 168 -1.73 13.45 192 -1.91 15.79 216 -2.33 16.71 240 -2.09 17.62 264 -2.43 18.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.07 -0.82 5.80 5.44 48 -1.43 -1.20 7.37 7.19 72 -1.63 -1.35 9.59 9.20 96 -1.64 11.91 120 -2.17 14.44 144 -2.42 17.36 168 -2.72 20.78 192 -3.37 24.82 216 -3.83 26.45 240 -3.50 27.77 264 -3.86 29.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.45 -4.17 8.43 8.70 0.98 0.98 48 -4.04 -4.42 11.32 10.91 0.98 0.98 72 -4.99 -4.27 15.48 15.03 0.97 0.97 96 -4.03 21.21 0.96 120 -0.58 31.28 0.93 144 -0.55 43.29 0.89 168 0.77 51.28 0.85 192 -1.16 57.62 0.83 216 -9.88 67.61 0.81 240 -10.53 78.75 0.79 264 -13.71 87.00 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.11 -7.89 11.16 11.94 0.99 0.99 48 -7.98 -8.59 16.32 16.24 0.98 0.99 72 -9.77 -8.25 24.47 23.61 0.97 0.98 96 -8.14 35.90 0.97 120 -4.59 51.36 0.93 144 -4.96 68.64 0.89 168 -4.32 82.04 0.86 192 -7.99 94.65 0.84 216 -20.96 106.60 0.80 240 -26.29 115.47 0.78 264 -39.21 126.79 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.65 -9.16 15.77 16.86 0.99 0.99 48 -7.98 -9.24 22.12 22.34 0.99 0.99 72 -10.75 -9.21 33.27 33.09 0.98 0.98 96 -10.17 52.51 0.97 120 -8.09 74.53 0.94 144 -10.71 97.69 0.89 168 -11.41 117.73 0.87 192 -19.70 137.56 0.84 216 -39.49 153.86 0.80 240 -47.72 166.36 0.77 264 -64.99 176.85 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.17 1.29 1.28 0.89 0.89 48 -0.39 -0.21 1.43 1.42 0.92 0.92 72 -0.46 -0.26 1.66 1.64 0.92 0.91 96 -0.29 2.00 0.91 120 -0.31 2.38 0.89 144 -0.29 2.99 0.82 168 -0.25 3.53 0.77 192 -0.34 4.04 0.73 216 -0.55 4.39 0.70 240 -0.93 4.48 0.69 264 -1.49 4.70 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.09 0.78 0.78 0.95 0.95 48 -0.04 -0.09 0.99 1.02 0.95 0.95 72 -0.09 -0.04 1.32 1.32 0.94 0.94 96 -0.09 1.84 0.92 120 -0.11 2.48 0.88 144 -0.20 2.99 0.81 168 -0.28 3.57 0.78 192 -0.41 3.92 0.77 216 -0.72 4.18 0.73 240 -0.99 4.34 0.70 264 -1.55 4.70 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.22 1.02 0.97 0.92 0.91 48 0.20 0.23 1.24 1.18 0.91 0.92 72 0.15 0.11 1.57 1.45 0.87 0.88 96 -0.01 1.97 0.79 120 -0.12 2.32 0.75 144 -0.05 2.62 0.71 168 -0.13 2.88 0.64 192 -0.45 3.13 0.56 216 -0.72 3.33 0.53 240 -0.72 3.33 0.52 264 -0.51 3.80 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.81 3.93 3.90 48 -0.78 -0.82 4.34 4.20 72 -0.78 -0.82 4.88 4.79 96 -0.78 5.70 120 -0.77 6.99 144 -0.71 7.90 168 -0.95 8.91 192 -1.24 9.35 216 -1.24 10.06 240 -0.92 10.83 264 -0.28 11.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.53 4.14 4.10 48 -0.56 -0.57 5.27 5.22 72 -0.55 -0.59 6.54 6.57 96 -0.53 8.60 120 -0.68 10.34 144 -0.53 12.73 168 -0.81 14.49 192 -0.98 16.12 216 -1.27 16.83 240 -0.96 17.58 264 -0.45 18.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.49 5.28 5.06 48 -0.56 -0.58 7.04 6.67 72 -0.54 -0.41 9.35 9.44 96 -0.71 12.62 120 -1.32 15.87 144 -1.59 20.18 168 -2.17 23.41 192 -2.70 26.11 216 -3.10 27.28 240 -2.30 28.35 264 -1.82 28.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.43 0.22 10.18 8.85 0.97 0.97 48 3.65 2.43 13.17 11.98 0.96 0.96 72 4.31 4.04 16.75 15.79 0.95 0.95 96 3.90 20.43 0.93 120 3.47 24.54 0.90 144 4.79 30.96 0.87 168 6.79 35.77 0.85 192 10.28 42.75 0.79 216 12.85 47.37 0.68 240 12.57 53.77 0.58 264 11.24 54.19 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 115 12 UTC = 117 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.69 11.59 11.64 0.98 0.98 48 3.00 2.42 16.15 15.78 0.98 0.98 72 4.89 5.38 22.93 22.77 0.96 0.97 96 5.93 30.39 0.95 120 5.68 37.77 0.93 144 7.13 48.16 0.90 168 11.22 54.76 0.89 192 13.88 66.48 0.83 216 15.96 75.03 0.74 240 17.14 83.43 0.65 264 17.04 87.62 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 125 12 UTC = 125 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.99 -3.14 18.35 17.76 0.97 0.97 48 0.44 0.11 23.23 23.06 0.98 0.98 72 1.72 2.48 32.06 31.61 0.97 0.97 96 2.35 41.07 0.96 120 1.55 50.88 0.94 144 3.62 65.90 0.91 168 9.02 79.70 0.88 192 11.88 93.84 0.83 216 14.80 105.88 0.75 240 15.60 117.41 0.67 264 16.12 125.15 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 124 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.34 1.56 1.53 0.90 0.91 48 -0.22 -0.29 1.76 1.74 0.93 0.93 72 -0.15 -0.22 2.00 2.01 0.93 0.93 96 -0.15 2.32 0.92 120 -0.14 2.68 0.90 144 -0.05 3.15 0.86 168 0.10 3.56 0.84 192 0.09 4.04 0.79 216 0.00 4.37 0.71 240 0.04 4.63 0.65 264 0.17 4.93 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.02 0.98 1.01 0.95 0.95 48 0.01 0.04 1.18 1.22 0.96 0.95 72 0.06 0.09 1.49 1.53 0.95 0.95 96 0.08 1.88 0.94 120 0.06 2.23 0.91 144 0.09 2.67 0.87 168 0.11 3.18 0.83 192 0.09 3.52 0.80 216 0.12 3.91 0.72 240 0.10 4.27 0.64 264 0.13 4.47 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 151 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 0.02 1.18 1.16 0.90 0.91 48 -0.22 -0.10 1.41 1.42 0.91 0.91 72 -0.30 -0.16 1.71 1.69 0.89 0.89 96 -0.19 2.00 0.86 120 -0.11 2.26 0.83 144 -0.03 2.55 0.78 168 0.05 2.76 0.76 192 0.07 3.00 0.74 216 0.17 3.39 0.67 240 0.22 3.62 0.62 264 0.12 3.78 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 149 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.85 3.91 3.72 48 -0.90 -0.90 4.34 4.14 72 -1.01 -1.00 4.84 4.66 96 -1.05 5.34 120 -1.05 5.82 144 -1.06 6.44 168 -1.14 6.97 192 -1.07 7.79 216 -1.02 8.32 240 -0.82 8.78 264 -0.90 8.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 131 12 UTC = 132 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.52 4.35 4.27 48 -0.89 -0.70 5.29 5.15 72 -0.99 -0.75 6.45 6.22 96 -0.86 7.45 120 -0.89 8.49 144 -0.91 9.69 168 -0.97 10.88 192 -1.37 11.93 216 -1.49 12.81 240 -1.42 13.72 264 -1.36 14.31 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 146 12 UTC = 146 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.71 5.12 4.97 48 -1.15 -1.05 6.56 6.44 72 -1.34 -1.09 8.04 7.96 96 -1.16 9.63 120 -1.17 11.16 144 -1.22 13.06 168 -1.31 15.20 192 -1.56 16.93 216 -1.60 18.01 240 -1.50 19.91 264 -1.44 21.02 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 145 12 UTC = 145 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.15 -4.82 8.54 10.72 0.97 0.98 48 -2.14 -3.59 9.65 12.07 0.98 0.98 72 -2.75 -4.02 12.25 14.73 0.97 0.97 96 -6.43 20.28 0.95 120 -7.35 24.87 0.93 144 -4.34 28.63 0.90 168 -1.97 37.56 0.82 192 -0.28 45.57 0.76 216 2.52 53.75 0.72 240 6.04 57.18 0.69 264 8.60 58.72 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.14 -10.86 11.75 15.47 0.98 0.97 48 -6.03 -9.84 13.31 17.30 0.98 0.98 72 -7.02 -10.70 16.81 21.31 0.97 0.97 96 -13.53 27.92 0.96 120 -14.77 36.01 0.93 144 -10.71 41.01 0.89 168 -8.11 51.80 0.85 192 -5.90 66.72 0.76 216 -2.31 79.08 0.71 240 -0.70 85.58 0.67 264 4.10 90.27 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.38 -11.06 13.25 17.63 0.98 0.98 48 -5.81 -10.60 16.89 21.35 0.98 0.98 72 -7.97 -12.65 23.40 28.00 0.97 0.97 96 -16.36 36.56 0.96 120 -18.04 47.59 0.94 144 -13.78 56.02 0.88 168 -12.02 67.38 0.86 192 -11.79 87.99 0.76 216 -8.26 103.57 0.71 240 -7.64 115.79 0.65 264 0.77 126.10 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.60 1.29 1.29 0.88 0.89 48 -0.45 -0.60 1.41 1.39 0.92 0.92 72 -0.46 -0.58 1.59 1.56 0.92 0.92 96 -0.63 1.68 0.91 120 -0.59 1.86 0.90 144 -0.57 2.07 0.87 168 -0.51 2.42 0.78 192 -0.35 2.87 0.73 216 -0.19 3.53 0.69 240 -0.33 3.81 0.67 264 -0.25 4.53 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.04 0.86 0.88 0.89 0.90 48 0.10 0.03 1.01 1.10 0.92 0.89 72 0.07 -0.01 1.20 1.27 0.89 0.89 96 0.03 1.47 0.91 120 0.00 1.80 0.85 144 0.05 1.95 0.82 168 0.09 2.23 0.78 192 0.01 2.57 0.75 216 -0.01 2.82 0.74 240 -0.09 3.16 0.68 264 0.12 3.70 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 0.98 1.10 0.90 0.88 48 -0.11 -0.16 1.21 1.40 0.88 0.85 72 -0.17 -0.20 1.45 1.59 0.87 0.84 96 -0.29 1.79 0.83 120 -0.39 1.91 0.85 144 -0.40 2.15 0.81 168 -0.53 2.44 0.77 192 -0.62 2.67 0.71 216 -0.59 2.83 0.68 240 -0.60 2.96 0.66 264 -0.67 3.12 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.59 3.80 4.04 48 -0.73 -0.66 4.23 4.32 72 -0.75 -0.63 4.78 4.79 96 -0.53 5.22 120 -0.36 5.83 144 -0.48 6.63 168 -0.51 6.89 192 -0.26 8.13 216 -0.01 9.19 240 -0.01 9.43 264 -0.17 10.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.86 4.07 4.34 48 -0.74 -0.71 4.75 5.18 72 -0.66 -0.66 5.54 5.97 96 -0.68 6.84 120 -0.30 8.05 144 -0.52 9.18 168 -0.86 10.14 192 -0.68 11.61 216 -0.55 13.52 240 -0.10 15.06 264 -0.79 15.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.76 5.16 5.55 48 -0.85 -0.75 6.55 6.77 72 -0.74 -0.65 7.88 7.93 96 -0.46 9.68 120 -0.17 11.61 144 -0.90 12.62 168 -0.45 14.28 192 -0.40 17.27 216 -0.15 20.06 240 0.13 22.63 264 -0.70 22.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.57 -2.41 8.80 8.88 0.71 0.70 48 -2.45 -2.40 9.04 9.31 0.82 0.79 72 -3.05 -2.88 9.79 9.99 0.83 0.80 96 -4.03 10.58 0.78 120 -5.46 11.37 0.78 144 -6.07 12.20 0.76 168 -6.48 13.05 0.72 192 -7.30 13.59 0.72 216 -7.77 14.50 0.70 240 -7.70 15.10 0.69 264 -7.72 15.86 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.19 -4.94 11.71 11.38 0.62 0.59 48 -5.36 -5.14 12.03 11.86 0.75 0.74 72 -6.25 -5.83 13.03 12.73 0.80 0.76 96 -7.36 13.66 0.75 120 -9.07 14.79 0.75 144 -10.00 15.72 0.74 168 -10.69 16.65 0.71 192 -11.69 17.45 0.71 216 -12.34 18.47 0.68 240 -12.58 19.34 0.67 264 -12.98 20.34 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.59 -7.00 13.99 13.13 0.68 0.65 48 -9.79 -9.45 15.55 14.93 0.80 0.78 72 -12.18 -11.50 17.79 16.94 0.84 0.81 96 -14.08 19.16 0.81 120 -16.73 21.46 0.80 144 -18.36 23.33 0.80 168 -19.61 24.95 0.78 192 -21.26 27.12 0.74 216 -22.72 29.60 0.70 240 -23.67 31.27 0.69 264 -25.20 32.83 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.27 0.91 0.90 0.42 0.44 48 -0.31 -0.27 0.94 0.93 0.51 0.53 72 -0.28 -0.25 0.95 0.96 0.57 0.55 96 -0.26 0.98 0.56 120 -0.26 1.00 0.57 144 -0.26 1.04 0.56 168 -0.27 1.09 0.54 192 -0.29 1.11 0.51 216 -0.30 1.14 0.48 240 -0.33 1.19 0.49 264 -0.33 1.23 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.13 0.73 0.72 0.57 0.51 48 0.12 0.11 0.75 0.75 0.63 0.57 72 0.08 0.08 0.77 0.77 0.66 0.59 96 0.04 0.78 0.61 120 0.02 0.82 0.59 144 -0.02 0.85 0.56 168 -0.03 0.87 0.55 192 -0.03 0.90 0.56 216 -0.02 0.95 0.55 240 -0.03 1.00 0.51 264 -0.04 1.04 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.41 0.68 0.66 0.63 0.66 48 -0.59 -0.62 0.84 0.85 0.69 0.70 72 -0.67 -0.71 0.93 0.95 0.72 0.70 96 -0.77 1.01 0.71 120 -0.83 1.09 0.68 144 -0.87 1.15 0.66 168 -0.91 1.21 0.65 192 -0.95 1.27 0.63 216 -0.99 1.34 0.61 240 -1.04 1.40 0.60 264 -1.10 1.45 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.48 3.07 3.11 48 -0.52 -0.56 3.28 3.31 72 -0.62 -0.67 3.48 3.52 96 -0.71 3.77 120 -0.72 4.03 144 -0.71 4.33 168 -0.69 4.64 192 -0.69 4.95 216 -0.72 5.20 240 -0.63 5.36 264 -0.56 5.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.98 3.49 3.52 48 -1.10 -1.12 3.77 3.86 72 -1.07 -1.10 3.99 4.06 96 -1.10 4.36 120 -1.05 4.73 144 -0.97 5.08 168 -0.92 5.38 192 -0.95 5.86 216 -0.96 6.18 240 -0.82 6.58 264 -0.81 6.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.90 4.35 4.28 48 -0.98 -1.07 5.00 5.10 72 -1.14 -1.24 5.61 5.73 96 -1.31 6.26 120 -1.36 6.87 144 -1.33 7.42 168 -1.29 7.99 192 -1.19 8.71 216 -1.29 9.08 240 -1.24 9.77 264 -1.21 10.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -1.07 9.46 9.32 0.98 0.98 48 -0.30 -0.51 12.78 12.48 0.98 0.98 72 0.34 0.28 17.31 17.21 0.97 0.97 96 0.80 23.26 0.95 120 1.29 31.15 0.92 144 1.58 40.18 0.87 168 1.76 49.12 0.83 192 0.95 57.97 0.77 216 0.33 65.15 0.72 240 0.48 72.19 0.65 264 0.69 77.02 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 380 12 UTC = 378 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.17 -3.19 11.72 11.73 0.99 0.99 48 -2.73 -2.73 16.65 16.51 0.99 0.99 72 -1.75 -1.53 24.37 24.16 0.97 0.98 96 -0.81 34.57 0.96 120 -0.36 46.33 0.93 144 -0.18 58.92 0.89 168 0.67 72.10 0.85 192 -0.83 87.50 0.79 216 -1.86 98.30 0.74 240 -2.34 108.42 0.67 264 -2.95 116.28 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 393 12 UTC = 389 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.53 -4.61 17.61 17.49 0.99 0.99 48 -4.60 -4.70 23.81 23.76 0.99 0.99 72 -4.10 -3.93 33.90 33.54 0.98 0.98 96 -4.13 47.11 0.96 120 -4.89 63.49 0.94 144 -5.59 80.82 0.90 168 -4.87 99.83 0.86 192 -7.72 122.46 0.80 216 -10.06 138.96 0.75 240 -10.05 151.98 0.69 264 -10.50 163.28 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 392 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.27 1.47 1.49 0.92 0.92 48 -0.27 -0.28 1.66 1.69 0.94 0.94 72 -0.25 -0.25 1.94 1.96 0.94 0.94 96 -0.23 2.34 0.92 120 -0.22 2.73 0.90 144 -0.18 3.26 0.85 168 -0.11 3.85 0.81 192 -0.13 4.46 0.76 216 -0.14 4.87 0.71 240 -0.21 5.26 0.65 264 -0.20 5.59 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 406 12 UTC = 398 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.04 0.92 0.95 0.96 0.96 48 -0.03 -0.03 1.14 1.19 0.96 0.96 72 -0.01 0.00 1.49 1.51 0.95 0.95 96 -0.02 1.93 0.93 120 -0.05 2.41 0.90 144 -0.07 2.88 0.86 168 -0.08 3.42 0.81 192 -0.13 3.94 0.77 216 -0.18 4.38 0.70 240 -0.24 4.69 0.66 264 -0.28 4.99 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 433 12 UTC = 426 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.12 1.11 1.10 0.92 0.93 48 -0.03 0.03 1.36 1.36 0.92 0.92 72 -0.09 -0.04 1.69 1.65 0.90 0.90 96 -0.09 2.02 0.87 120 -0.12 2.39 0.82 144 -0.14 2.74 0.78 168 -0.16 3.03 0.74 192 -0.19 3.29 0.70 216 -0.21 3.59 0.64 240 -0.13 3.77 0.61 264 -0.11 3.93 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 429 12 UTC = 422 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.82 3.84 3.82 48 -0.86 -0.88 4.33 4.29 72 -0.92 -0.95 5.01 4.96 96 -0.98 5.82 120 -1.04 6.77 144 -1.03 7.58 168 -1.08 8.55 192 -1.12 9.47 216 -1.04 10.02 240 -0.84 10.69 264 -0.77 11.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 391 12 UTC = 382 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.64 4.20 4.20 48 -0.83 -0.79 5.20 5.23 72 -0.95 -0.84 6.58 6.55 96 -0.94 8.18 120 -1.05 9.62 144 -1.10 11.20 168 -1.18 12.82 192 -1.37 14.48 216 -1.53 15.41 240 -1.31 16.28 264 -1.26 16.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 420 12 UTC = 412 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.62 5.08 4.93 48 -0.92 -0.84 6.60 6.49 72 -1.07 -0.88 8.59 8.51 96 -1.04 10.94 120 -1.35 13.28 144 -1.54 15.93 168 -1.70 18.64 192 -2.02 21.40 216 -2.07 22.97 240 -1.77 24.33 264 -1.62 25.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 417 12 UTC = 409 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.33 -2.06 8.50 8.62 0.97 0.98 48 -0.98 -2.00 10.89 11.23 0.98 0.98 72 -1.53 -1.85 14.42 14.62 0.97 0.97 96 -3.44 19.74 0.95 120 -5.22 26.26 0.91 144 -5.52 32.59 0.87 168 -4.07 39.96 0.81 192 -4.19 44.97 0.77 216 -3.64 49.88 0.72 240 -3.72 56.45 0.65 264 -4.13 59.45 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.19 -6.45 11.64 12.59 0.98 0.98 48 -4.46 -6.12 14.47 15.29 0.98 0.98 72 -5.52 -6.09 19.51 19.36 0.97 0.97 96 -8.09 26.97 0.95 120 -10.15 35.73 0.93 144 -10.31 43.70 0.89 168 -9.44 54.56 0.84 192 -10.16 63.60 0.80 216 -10.38 70.74 0.76 240 -10.17 80.99 0.68 264 -8.55 86.57 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.91 -7.63 14.79 16.62 0.98 0.98 48 -5.02 -7.37 19.08 20.77 0.98 0.98 72 -6.79 -7.64 27.10 27.69 0.97 0.97 96 -10.83 38.19 0.96 120 -13.89 51.29 0.93 144 -15.36 63.33 0.90 168 -15.55 78.54 0.85 192 -18.33 92.00 0.81 216 -18.72 100.28 0.78 240 -18.55 114.65 0.70 264 -14.71 125.52 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.33 1.50 1.49 0.90 0.89 48 -0.45 -0.25 1.59 1.60 0.93 0.92 72 -0.44 -0.21 1.73 1.70 0.94 0.92 96 -0.30 1.87 0.91 120 -0.36 2.11 0.88 144 -0.43 2.56 0.84 168 -0.48 2.96 0.81 192 -0.47 3.35 0.77 216 -0.47 3.70 0.74 240 -0.40 4.14 0.68 264 -0.21 4.45 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 46 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 -0.02 0.89 0.90 0.92 0.93 48 0.03 -0.02 1.08 1.09 0.94 0.94 72 -0.01 -0.05 1.34 1.34 0.92 0.93 96 -0.03 1.65 0.91 120 -0.06 2.03 0.88 144 -0.07 2.32 0.84 168 -0.13 2.75 0.79 192 -0.22 3.01 0.76 216 -0.26 3.21 0.75 240 -0.26 3.47 0.68 264 -0.05 3.84 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 49 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.03 1.04 1.04 0.90 0.89 48 -0.01 -0.06 1.22 1.27 0.90 0.90 72 -0.04 -0.06 1.48 1.45 0.89 0.89 96 -0.15 1.71 0.86 120 -0.18 1.92 0.84 144 -0.24 2.22 0.81 168 -0.30 2.53 0.78 192 -0.33 2.84 0.71 216 -0.35 2.98 0.69 240 -0.34 3.13 0.65 264 -0.37 3.17 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 48 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -1.04 4.27 4.56 48 -0.79 -1.01 4.67 4.90 72 -0.76 -1.04 5.19 5.31 96 -0.97 5.81 120 -0.95 6.57 144 -1.03 7.59 168 -1.37 8.14 192 -1.17 8.90 216 -1.01 9.43 240 -0.91 9.92 264 -0.78 10.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.93 4.42 4.38 48 -0.86 -0.98 5.16 5.16 72 -0.81 -0.97 5.98 6.01 96 -0.87 6.91 120 -0.73 8.17 144 -0.43 9.68 168 -0.53 10.58 192 -0.41 11.73 216 -0.29 12.61 240 -0.13 13.85 264 -0.57 14.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 47 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2018 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.43 5.33 5.53 48 -0.83 -0.40 6.73 6.76 72 -0.62 -0.16 8.14 8.15 96 -0.13 9.45 120 -0.07 11.69 144 0.05 14.14 168 0.21 15.63 192 0.00 17.76 216 0.75 19.63 240 0.92 21.42 264 0.04 22.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 47 ---------------------------------------------------------