VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JANUARY 2019 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.02 1.01 1.02 0.99 0.99 16.1 16.6 48 0.15 0.09 1.80 1.82 0.98 0.98 25.3 25.8 72 0.20 0.13 2.70 2.71 0.95 0.95 33.7 34.2 96 0.17 3.85 0.90 42.7 120 0.19 5.11 0.83 51.9 144 0.17 6.41 0.73 60.1 168 0.16 7.79 0.60 67.3 192 0.10 8.93 0.48 72.7 216 -0.06 9.80 0.38 76.1 240 -0.11 10.36 0.31 79.2 264 -0.11 11.26 0.21 82.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.89 7.42 7.64 1.00 1.00 9.3 9.3 48 -1.03 -1.41 15.28 15.77 0.99 0.99 17.0 17.2 72 -1.63 -1.99 25.07 25.19 0.97 0.97 24.7 24.7 96 -2.56 36.97 0.93 32.2 120 -3.29 50.34 0.87 39.6 144 -4.33 63.77 0.79 46.4 168 -5.07 77.49 0.69 52.4 192 -6.15 89.18 0.58 57.2 216 -7.64 100.65 0.47 61.0 240 -8.40 109.58 0.38 63.6 264 -8.81 119.52 0.26 66.5 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -1.07 9.41 9.63 1.00 1.00 7.2 7.3 48 -2.35 -2.50 18.58 19.01 0.99 0.99 12.3 12.4 72 -4.10 -4.26 30.21 29.88 0.98 0.98 17.8 17.7 96 -6.52 44.82 0.95 23.9 120 -9.08 62.18 0.90 30.4 144 -11.84 79.83 0.83 36.5 168 -13.72 97.80 0.74 42.3 192 -15.32 115.18 0.63 47.3 216 -16.57 131.99 0.52 51.5 240 -17.34 146.11 0.42 54.6 264 -18.29 157.71 0.32 56.9 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.02 0.51 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 0.00 0.93 0.94 0.97 0.97 72 -0.04 -0.03 1.38 1.38 0.94 0.94 96 -0.10 1.87 0.89 120 -0.17 2.40 0.82 144 -0.24 2.94 0.73 168 -0.29 3.46 0.63 192 -0.33 3.97 0.51 216 -0.34 4.40 0.39 240 -0.37 4.70 0.31 264 -0.37 4.91 0.25 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.09 0.68 0.68 0.99 0.99 48 -0.22 -0.19 1.12 1.13 0.96 0.96 72 -0.29 -0.27 1.58 1.57 0.92 0.92 96 -0.34 2.06 0.87 120 -0.43 2.55 0.79 144 -0.50 3.00 0.71 168 -0.55 3.43 0.62 192 -0.57 3.75 0.55 216 -0.59 4.01 0.49 240 -0.58 4.17 0.45 264 -0.60 4.39 0.40 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 2.37 2.39 48 -0.17 -0.14 4.31 4.33 72 -0.24 -0.24 6.21 6.19 96 -0.34 8.14 120 -0.41 10.07 144 -0.46 11.86 168 -0.46 13.60 192 -0.47 15.07 216 -0.39 16.43 240 -0.35 17.41 264 -0.34 18.26 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.16 3.28 3.27 48 -0.31 -0.29 5.31 5.30 72 -0.41 -0.41 7.49 7.35 96 -0.55 9.87 120 -0.62 12.48 144 -0.68 15.16 168 -0.74 17.80 192 -0.75 20.28 216 -0.68 22.59 240 -0.58 24.42 264 -0.54 25.47 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 0.00 3.29 2.96 0.97 0.98 24.3 25.0 48 -0.52 -0.26 4.83 4.92 0.94 0.94 31.6 32.5 72 -0.72 -0.45 5.92 6.23 0.92 0.91 36.5 37.6 96 -0.48 6.94 0.88 41.5 120 -0.59 8.04 0.84 45.4 144 -0.48 9.03 0.79 48.5 168 -0.74 10.01 0.73 51.9 192 -1.02 11.01 0.69 55.2 216 -1.29 12.12 0.65 57.5 240 -1.76 13.22 0.59 59.6 264 -2.36 13.88 0.54 61.4 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.37 -1.41 4.64 4.71 0.99 0.99 18.7 18.9 48 -4.42 -4.34 8.54 8.51 0.97 0.97 25.9 25.9 72 -6.95 -6.80 12.09 11.82 0.94 0.95 30.9 30.7 96 -9.07 15.29 0.91 35.4 120 -11.25 18.67 0.87 39.5 144 -13.13 21.89 0.82 43.4 168 -15.27 25.01 0.76 47.3 192 -17.46 28.11 0.71 51.0 216 -19.14 31.38 0.63 54.6 240 -20.63 34.04 0.56 57.5 264 -22.07 36.08 0.52 59.7 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.09 0.39 0.41 0.97 0.97 48 -0.15 -0.14 0.60 0.62 0.93 0.93 72 -0.18 -0.17 0.76 0.78 0.88 0.89 96 -0.19 0.90 0.86 120 -0.21 1.01 0.82 144 -0.23 1.12 0.78 168 -0.26 1.22 0.74 192 -0.28 1.35 0.68 216 -0.31 1.46 0.63 240 -0.34 1.55 0.58 264 -0.35 1.60 0.55 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.31 0.45 0.48 0.95 0.95 48 -0.49 -0.53 0.71 0.75 0.89 0.90 72 -0.62 -0.68 0.89 0.93 0.83 0.85 96 -0.77 1.06 0.80 120 -0.85 1.17 0.75 144 -0.93 1.28 0.70 168 -0.99 1.38 0.64 192 -1.05 1.48 0.58 216 -1.10 1.57 0.51 240 -1.13 1.65 0.43 264 -1.18 1.72 0.38 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.07 1.42 1.42 48 -0.15 -0.13 2.11 2.09 72 -0.20 -0.18 2.62 2.60 96 -0.20 3.03 120 -0.23 3.41 144 -0.24 3.76 168 -0.27 4.08 192 -0.27 4.41 216 -0.24 4.67 240 -0.22 4.91 264 -0.20 5.15 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.28 3.17 3.18 48 -0.41 -0.41 4.73 4.75 72 -0.47 -0.50 5.89 5.90 96 -0.52 6.97 120 -0.51 7.89 144 -0.50 8.79 168 -0.44 9.64 192 -0.36 10.42 216 -0.39 11.23 240 -0.45 11.89 264 -0.57 12.44 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.04 0.79 0.78 1.00 0.99 12.8 13.3 48 -0.11 -0.10 1.47 1.44 0.98 0.98 21.5 21.9 72 -0.14 -0.12 2.26 2.21 0.96 0.96 29.6 30.0 96 -0.15 3.08 0.91 37.7 120 -0.16 4.09 0.85 45.3 144 -0.15 5.10 0.76 51.9 168 -0.12 6.16 0.66 58.1 192 -0.06 6.99 0.56 62.2 216 0.06 7.73 0.46 65.8 240 0.17 8.40 0.35 68.7 264 0.26 8.89 0.27 70.6 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.91 0.87 7.08 7.08 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.7 48 1.27 1.26 14.17 13.97 0.99 0.99 17.4 17.2 72 1.56 1.53 22.49 22.16 0.97 0.97 24.8 24.5 96 1.48 32.00 0.94 31.8 120 1.48 43.47 0.88 39.2 144 1.61 54.81 0.80 45.6 168 1.97 67.17 0.71 51.6 192 2.46 77.40 0.62 55.9 216 3.38 86.35 0.53 59.6 240 3.91 95.50 0.42 62.8 264 4.26 101.82 0.33 65.0 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.40 9.42 9.41 1.00 1.00 8.6 8.6 48 -1.10 -1.26 19.03 18.97 0.99 0.99 15.3 15.2 72 -1.94 -2.32 30.85 30.78 0.97 0.97 22.2 22.1 96 -3.19 44.36 0.94 29.2 120 -3.81 60.27 0.89 36.3 144 -4.08 76.94 0.81 42.7 168 -4.03 94.98 0.71 48.8 192 -4.23 109.53 0.63 53.3 216 -4.41 121.93 0.54 57.1 240 -4.90 135.07 0.42 60.5 264 -4.84 144.84 0.33 62.9 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.05 0.46 0.46 0.99 0.99 48 0.07 0.06 0.86 0.85 0.97 0.97 72 0.07 0.06 1.26 1.26 0.93 0.93 96 0.06 1.68 0.87 120 0.06 2.10 0.80 144 0.06 2.52 0.71 168 0.07 2.96 0.60 192 0.05 3.30 0.50 216 0.01 3.60 0.41 240 -0.03 3.86 0.32 264 -0.06 4.06 0.24 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.18 0.61 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.30 -0.32 1.10 1.10 0.95 0.95 72 -0.40 -0.43 1.56 1.55 0.89 0.89 96 -0.49 2.03 0.81 120 -0.56 2.45 0.73 144 -0.62 2.84 0.63 168 -0.65 3.20 0.53 192 -0.71 3.49 0.44 216 -0.78 3.71 0.36 240 -0.84 3.91 0.29 264 -0.84 4.05 0.24 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.14 2.05 2.06 48 -0.26 -0.24 3.69 3.67 72 -0.32 -0.32 5.28 5.22 96 -0.35 6.79 120 -0.34 8.51 144 -0.36 9.97 168 -0.35 11.51 192 -0.41 12.59 216 -0.45 13.51 240 -0.51 14.33 264 -0.51 14.98 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.14 3.09 3.10 48 -0.20 -0.21 5.45 5.42 72 -0.26 -0.31 8.01 7.89 96 -0.33 10.42 120 -0.39 13.07 144 -0.43 15.48 168 -0.46 17.99 192 -0.49 19.79 216 -0.57 21.42 240 -0.71 22.73 264 -0.69 23.99 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -1.37 8.98 8.90 0.99 0.99 48 -1.37 -2.06 13.41 13.73 0.98 0.98 72 -0.95 -2.75 19.32 19.77 0.96 0.96 96 -2.92 27.39 0.91 120 -3.21 35.93 0.86 144 -7.50 44.54 0.85 168 -8.85 55.29 0.77 192 -4.81 62.82 0.70 216 -3.19 70.44 0.62 240 -2.99 74.75 0.55 264 -6.41 76.98 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.38 -5.02 11.20 11.77 0.99 0.99 48 -6.33 -7.10 18.62 20.22 0.99 0.98 72 -6.04 -7.59 29.08 30.13 0.97 0.97 96 -7.23 41.86 0.94 120 -7.66 53.73 0.90 144 -13.24 70.63 0.88 168 -16.10 86.00 0.83 192 -14.64 105.85 0.74 216 -19.19 120.32 0.67 240 -21.04 131.37 0.58 264 -21.14 133.82 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.05 -5.87 15.16 15.71 0.99 0.99 48 -9.81 -9.44 26.77 28.08 0.99 0.99 72 -8.93 -10.45 41.50 41.93 0.97 0.97 96 -10.05 59.63 0.93 120 -11.82 76.13 0.91 144 -18.43 96.56 0.89 168 -25.72 116.57 0.85 192 -25.38 149.19 0.76 216 -32.61 170.51 0.69 240 -36.51 190.61 0.61 264 -34.44 193.95 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.39 1.69 1.76 0.94 0.93 48 -0.34 -0.44 1.97 2.04 0.95 0.95 72 -0.36 -0.47 2.47 2.46 0.93 0.93 96 -0.44 2.99 0.89 120 -0.45 3.70 0.86 144 -0.59 4.58 0.80 168 -0.46 5.51 0.75 192 -0.47 6.54 0.64 216 -0.93 7.30 0.55 240 -0.95 7.92 0.46 264 -0.68 8.06 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.04 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.96 48 -0.12 -0.11 1.31 1.36 0.96 0.96 72 -0.11 -0.12 1.82 1.89 0.94 0.94 96 -0.11 2.48 0.89 120 -0.13 2.93 0.87 144 -0.27 3.44 0.84 168 -0.54 4.03 0.79 192 -0.69 4.88 0.71 216 -0.97 5.61 0.62 240 -1.09 6.18 0.54 264 -0.92 6.22 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.16 1.12 1.18 0.94 0.94 48 -0.01 0.06 1.44 1.50 0.92 0.92 72 -0.01 0.01 1.79 1.85 0.91 0.90 96 0.03 2.28 0.86 120 -0.03 2.66 0.82 144 0.05 3.09 0.75 168 0.09 3.53 0.70 192 0.04 4.00 0.62 216 0.10 4.24 0.57 240 0.01 4.48 0.56 264 -0.09 4.55 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.94 -1.08 4.10 4.23 48 -1.13 -1.27 4.72 4.96 72 -1.31 -1.40 5.70 5.93 96 -1.32 7.02 120 -1.44 8.27 144 -1.34 9.66 168 -1.62 10.96 192 -1.59 11.93 216 -1.44 12.77 240 -1.20 13.69 264 -1.16 13.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.70 4.59 4.61 48 -0.90 -0.95 5.84 6.04 72 -1.08 -1.23 7.69 7.89 96 -1.32 9.68 120 -1.43 11.89 144 -1.42 13.90 168 -1.63 15.89 192 -1.91 17.76 216 -1.47 19.51 240 -0.99 20.98 264 -0.86 20.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.28 -1.15 6.06 6.18 48 -1.65 -1.37 8.29 8.10 72 -1.78 -1.59 10.99 10.81 96 -1.73 14.06 120 -1.81 16.91 144 -1.76 19.58 168 -1.98 22.73 192 -1.93 26.06 216 -1.68 28.69 240 -1.34 31.25 264 -0.69 31.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.41 -7.76 10.65 11.95 0.98 0.98 48 -6.85 -9.82 14.24 15.61 0.98 0.98 72 -7.07 -8.59 18.33 19.76 0.96 0.96 96 -6.35 27.75 0.91 120 -2.43 40.67 0.87 144 2.18 53.69 0.83 168 4.79 62.97 0.70 192 2.66 66.27 0.66 216 -2.49 70.06 0.62 240 -12.95 83.95 0.59 264 -18.83 95.45 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.80 -11.95 14.92 15.66 0.99 0.99 48 -12.79 -15.47 20.80 22.02 0.99 0.99 72 -13.19 -13.85 27.71 30.23 0.97 0.96 96 -12.25 40.97 0.93 120 -6.70 59.90 0.86 144 -2.64 79.88 0.81 168 -0.86 101.39 0.64 192 -2.39 110.85 0.64 216 -7.13 111.09 0.67 240 -13.17 126.99 0.67 264 -12.80 139.87 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.69 -13.00 18.05 19.97 0.99 0.99 48 -13.50 -17.29 25.13 27.15 0.99 0.99 72 -14.25 -16.03 34.05 37.09 0.97 0.97 96 -16.65 52.50 0.93 120 -11.93 79.98 0.84 144 -9.59 109.12 0.77 168 -8.11 137.28 0.60 192 -7.13 152.99 0.63 216 -12.94 158.99 0.68 240 -11.72 180.29 0.64 264 -6.62 192.66 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.45 1.50 1.41 0.88 0.87 48 -0.75 -0.62 1.70 1.63 0.90 0.89 72 -0.87 -0.70 1.97 1.89 0.88 0.87 96 -0.75 2.18 0.83 120 -0.66 2.61 0.76 144 -0.66 3.14 0.66 168 -0.84 3.76 0.58 192 -0.82 4.20 0.53 216 -0.57 4.22 0.55 240 -0.21 4.34 0.54 264 0.27 4.62 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.07 0.92 0.87 0.96 0.97 48 -0.13 -0.09 1.22 1.18 0.96 0.96 72 -0.12 -0.01 1.57 1.58 0.92 0.93 96 -0.09 2.04 0.87 120 -0.09 2.92 0.79 144 -0.16 3.67 0.71 168 -0.13 4.33 0.55 192 -0.03 4.69 0.60 216 -0.13 5.25 0.56 240 0.21 5.53 0.55 264 0.57 5.63 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.42 0.36 1.19 1.11 0.94 0.95 48 0.34 0.29 1.40 1.38 0.94 0.95 72 0.17 0.05 1.71 1.78 0.91 0.90 96 -0.08 2.17 0.85 120 -0.18 2.82 0.79 144 -0.40 3.29 0.74 168 -0.50 3.83 0.62 192 -0.37 4.02 0.61 216 -0.51 4.45 0.53 240 -0.20 4.51 0.54 264 0.09 4.49 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.63 4.25 4.20 48 -0.85 -0.68 4.67 4.70 72 -0.81 -0.67 5.42 5.43 96 -0.79 6.38 120 -0.93 7.83 144 -0.86 8.97 168 -1.04 10.18 192 -0.92 10.79 216 -1.03 11.40 240 -0.85 12.08 264 -0.45 13.04 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.41 4.50 4.35 48 -0.55 -0.37 5.60 5.40 72 -0.69 -0.64 7.20 7.24 96 -0.92 9.17 120 -1.04 11.86 144 -0.99 14.25 168 -1.18 16.50 192 -1.42 17.62 216 -1.47 18.61 240 -1.02 20.37 264 -0.91 21.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.58 4.76 4.74 48 -0.56 -0.66 5.95 5.78 72 -0.56 -0.81 8.11 8.13 96 -0.89 11.24 120 -0.88 15.66 144 -0.84 20.17 168 -0.89 23.12 192 -1.25 25.16 216 -1.74 27.01 240 -0.43 30.41 264 -0.10 31.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.42 -1.47 11.02 9.92 0.96 0.97 48 2.57 0.63 13.57 12.18 0.96 0.96 72 3.73 2.52 16.64 15.36 0.94 0.94 96 3.18 19.30 0.93 120 1.86 24.37 0.88 144 1.52 30.66 0.82 168 -0.38 39.57 0.75 192 -1.76 41.19 0.75 216 -1.34 45.17 0.71 240 0.98 50.51 0.63 264 1.24 50.42 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 116 12 UTC = 116 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -1.52 12.93 13.03 0.98 0.98 48 2.80 1.21 16.97 16.95 0.98 0.98 72 4.44 3.59 22.95 22.63 0.96 0.96 96 4.02 29.69 0.95 120 2.88 38.42 0.92 144 2.83 47.75 0.89 168 -0.11 58.51 0.83 192 -3.58 63.68 0.81 216 -2.07 69.75 0.76 240 2.01 75.44 0.70 264 1.78 80.43 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 125 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.16 -5.02 19.39 19.34 0.97 0.97 48 -2.50 -3.61 22.69 22.88 0.98 0.98 72 -1.83 -2.03 29.65 28.97 0.97 0.97 96 -2.33 36.36 0.96 120 -3.68 47.31 0.94 144 -4.11 60.08 0.91 168 -9.08 75.07 0.86 192 -16.77 84.40 0.84 216 -18.96 96.87 0.78 240 -17.51 107.36 0.70 264 -19.33 113.99 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 125 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.13 1.71 1.68 0.89 0.90 48 0.04 -0.05 1.88 1.84 0.90 0.91 72 0.09 0.03 2.05 2.02 0.90 0.90 96 0.06 2.33 0.88 120 0.11 2.72 0.86 144 0.13 3.17 0.82 168 0.16 3.80 0.74 192 0.24 4.19 0.71 216 0.48 4.52 0.70 240 0.68 4.78 0.66 264 0.83 4.87 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.11 1.06 1.03 0.94 0.94 48 -0.11 -0.10 1.25 1.26 0.95 0.95 72 -0.13 -0.14 1.53 1.51 0.94 0.94 96 -0.19 1.79 0.92 120 -0.21 2.14 0.90 144 -0.25 2.53 0.87 168 -0.42 3.14 0.80 192 -0.60 3.52 0.77 216 -0.60 3.82 0.72 240 -0.59 4.03 0.67 264 -0.72 4.24 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 151 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 1.26 1.25 0.93 0.92 48 -0.17 -0.14 1.55 1.51 0.92 0.92 72 -0.21 -0.15 1.87 1.81 0.89 0.89 96 -0.13 2.15 0.87 120 -0.16 2.51 0.83 144 -0.14 2.79 0.80 168 -0.13 3.12 0.73 192 -0.24 3.47 0.68 216 -0.44 3.73 0.65 240 -0.57 3.93 0.61 264 -0.48 4.11 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 149 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.97 3.87 3.85 48 -1.00 -1.14 4.20 4.17 72 -1.11 -1.26 4.58 4.53 96 -1.31 5.10 120 -1.35 5.73 144 -1.44 6.42 168 -1.48 7.23 192 -1.59 7.40 216 -1.64 7.93 240 -1.68 8.49 264 -1.64 8.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 131 12 UTC = 132 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.47 4.39 4.58 48 -0.82 -0.58 5.28 5.46 72 -0.96 -0.65 6.47 6.55 96 -0.73 7.79 120 -0.82 9.13 144 -0.71 10.21 168 -0.72 11.85 192 -1.03 12.84 216 -1.46 14.03 240 -1.74 14.87 264 -1.65 15.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 147 12 UTC = 147 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -0.88 4.98 4.89 48 -1.27 -1.14 5.99 5.90 72 -1.46 -1.18 7.17 7.01 96 -1.32 8.42 120 -1.50 9.98 144 -1.33 11.96 168 -1.22 14.46 192 -1.78 16.33 216 -2.32 18.41 240 -2.76 20.23 264 -2.80 20.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 145 12 UTC = 145 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.45 -6.00 9.06 11.84 0.96 0.97 48 -3.70 -5.11 10.54 13.20 0.96 0.97 72 -3.96 -5.14 12.13 15.35 0.95 0.94 96 -5.93 19.21 0.91 120 -5.04 22.48 0.90 144 -3.65 28.09 0.83 168 -4.79 34.74 0.72 192 -5.93 35.53 0.71 216 -4.32 40.80 0.69 240 -3.48 48.20 0.61 264 -3.06 45.61 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.51 -13.00 13.03 17.52 0.97 0.97 48 -10.49 -11.94 15.30 18.59 0.98 0.98 72 -11.30 -13.00 18.02 22.21 0.97 0.96 96 -15.25 28.36 0.91 120 -14.17 34.59 0.91 144 -12.13 44.33 0.84 168 -14.99 56.87 0.71 192 -18.84 56.44 0.71 216 -20.10 61.63 0.74 240 -20.55 73.18 0.63 264 -20.51 68.63 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.96 -10.98 12.49 17.96 0.98 0.97 48 -8.72 -10.17 17.00 20.21 0.98 0.98 72 -10.90 -12.06 22.95 26.89 0.97 0.96 96 -14.09 34.74 0.94 120 -13.03 47.93 0.94 144 -11.84 62.54 0.88 168 -16.67 81.77 0.76 192 -25.34 85.18 0.73 216 -31.49 91.77 0.72 240 -35.43 109.25 0.57 264 -35.58 103.04 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.76 1.58 1.39 0.85 0.90 48 -0.84 -0.77 1.69 1.52 0.89 0.92 72 -0.85 -0.79 1.83 1.72 0.90 0.91 96 -0.79 1.92 0.90 120 -0.85 2.16 0.90 144 -0.91 2.77 0.82 168 -1.15 3.37 0.69 192 -1.38 3.62 0.65 216 -1.47 3.56 0.67 240 -1.53 3.84 0.60 264 -1.37 3.69 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.29 0.19 0.93 0.97 0.85 0.85 48 0.30 0.21 1.01 1.09 0.87 0.86 72 0.27 0.19 1.12 1.18 0.83 0.87 96 0.14 1.39 0.84 120 0.11 1.62 0.85 144 0.17 2.00 0.80 168 0.13 2.37 0.73 192 -0.12 2.31 0.67 216 -0.25 2.52 0.63 240 -0.38 2.89 0.48 264 -0.37 2.80 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.10 0.84 0.99 0.84 0.89 48 -0.11 -0.19 1.04 1.12 0.86 0.88 72 -0.20 -0.19 1.18 1.29 0.83 0.83 96 -0.19 1.57 0.82 120 -0.19 1.73 0.81 144 -0.34 2.12 0.78 168 -0.35 2.54 0.68 192 -0.51 2.63 0.67 216 -0.83 2.87 0.63 240 -0.98 3.04 0.61 264 -1.14 2.88 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.59 4.00 4.25 48 -0.74 -0.70 4.49 4.68 72 -0.88 -0.83 4.97 5.10 96 -0.74 5.85 120 -0.62 6.20 144 -0.66 7.23 168 -0.56 8.19 192 -0.96 8.24 216 -1.02 8.88 240 -1.03 9.04 264 -0.94 9.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.11 -0.66 4.05 4.08 48 -1.28 -0.88 4.70 4.66 72 -1.52 -1.08 5.37 5.32 96 -1.02 6.76 120 -0.84 7.94 144 -0.81 9.67 168 -1.22 10.55 192 -1.20 11.11 216 -1.34 12.18 240 -1.81 12.88 264 -1.51 13.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.65 4.95 5.26 48 -0.87 -0.50 6.05 6.31 72 -0.88 -0.55 7.11 7.51 96 -0.28 9.83 120 -0.36 11.60 144 -0.34 14.14 168 -0.70 15.23 192 -0.87 16.45 216 -0.38 18.88 240 -0.66 20.83 264 -1.20 19.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.51 -3.44 9.26 9.41 0.67 0.68 48 -3.87 -3.38 9.79 9.86 0.77 0.77 72 -4.41 -3.91 10.21 10.40 0.81 0.79 96 -4.18 10.93 0.79 120 -5.22 11.60 0.78 144 -5.11 11.99 0.77 168 -5.48 12.54 0.75 192 -5.87 13.42 0.75 216 -6.23 14.54 0.73 240 -6.34 15.15 0.70 264 -7.16 15.42 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.56 -6.25 12.26 11.83 0.58 0.58 48 -7.31 -6.52 12.98 12.33 0.73 0.74 72 -8.37 -7.39 13.79 13.17 0.78 0.78 96 -8.21 13.85 0.78 120 -9.62 14.68 0.79 144 -9.91 15.33 0.77 168 -10.74 16.39 0.78 192 -11.91 17.88 0.78 216 -12.88 19.59 0.73 240 -13.51 20.83 0.68 264 -14.89 22.01 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.54 -7.82 14.11 13.59 0.67 0.68 48 -9.90 -9.66 15.93 15.19 0.81 0.80 72 -12.19 -11.67 18.20 17.24 0.82 0.82 96 -13.11 18.87 0.82 120 -15.43 21.03 0.82 144 -16.67 22.72 0.78 168 -18.40 24.93 0.76 192 -20.43 27.46 0.73 216 -22.29 30.89 0.66 240 -23.94 33.08 0.63 264 -25.91 34.79 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.29 1.00 0.94 0.46 0.49 48 -0.33 -0.30 1.04 0.97 0.56 0.56 72 -0.34 -0.31 1.09 1.00 0.58 0.57 96 -0.31 1.05 0.59 120 -0.32 1.09 0.58 144 -0.31 1.13 0.55 168 -0.32 1.15 0.56 192 -0.34 1.19 0.54 216 -0.36 1.23 0.50 240 -0.37 1.30 0.46 264 -0.41 1.36 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.16 0.79 0.79 0.57 0.58 48 0.14 0.14 0.84 0.85 0.64 0.63 72 0.11 0.11 0.89 0.88 0.65 0.62 96 0.08 0.91 0.63 120 0.05 0.93 0.64 144 0.02 0.95 0.65 168 -0.02 1.01 0.63 192 -0.08 1.05 0.62 216 -0.12 1.10 0.58 240 -0.15 1.16 0.56 264 -0.15 1.19 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.35 0.64 0.69 0.59 0.58 48 -0.47 -0.54 0.79 0.84 0.67 0.64 72 -0.56 -0.62 0.90 0.93 0.65 0.65 96 -0.67 1.00 0.63 120 -0.72 1.06 0.66 144 -0.77 1.12 0.66 168 -0.81 1.18 0.64 192 -0.84 1.25 0.64 216 -0.87 1.32 0.62 240 -0.92 1.40 0.60 264 -0.95 1.47 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.36 3.53 3.58 48 -0.37 -0.36 3.91 3.90 72 -0.35 -0.29 4.23 4.22 96 -0.30 4.48 120 -0.38 4.68 144 -0.45 4.88 168 -0.53 5.07 192 -0.57 5.28 216 -0.59 5.52 240 -0.69 5.77 264 -0.70 6.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.88 3.96 3.93 48 -0.95 -0.93 4.33 4.26 72 -0.92 -0.91 4.66 4.55 96 -0.88 4.80 120 -0.84 5.18 144 -0.88 5.56 168 -1.02 5.96 192 -1.08 6.30 216 -1.10 6.70 240 -1.14 7.11 264 -1.30 7.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.12 -1.01 4.88 4.88 48 -1.11 -1.16 5.87 5.80 72 -1.25 -1.34 6.53 6.63 96 -1.49 7.31 120 -1.57 7.87 144 -1.67 8.46 168 -1.61 8.70 192 -1.36 9.24 216 -1.24 9.92 240 -1.17 10.63 264 -1.17 10.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.53 -2.40 10.45 10.35 0.98 0.98 48 -1.13 -2.13 14.07 14.06 0.98 0.98 72 -0.84 -1.41 19.07 18.91 0.96 0.96 96 -0.98 26.30 0.93 120 -1.18 35.60 0.89 144 -2.11 44.88 0.85 168 -1.77 54.31 0.78 192 -2.27 59.77 0.74 216 -4.47 66.29 0.69 240 -5.52 71.72 0.64 264 -6.35 76.41 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 375 12 UTC = 372 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.43 -4.13 13.20 13.24 0.99 0.99 48 -3.44 -4.35 18.93 19.35 0.98 0.98 72 -3.05 -3.53 26.97 27.42 0.97 0.97 96 -3.43 37.73 0.94 120 -3.88 50.95 0.91 144 -5.71 65.98 0.85 168 -6.73 80.26 0.80 192 -8.27 91.85 0.74 216 -10.95 100.77 0.70 240 -11.67 110.21 0.65 264 -11.61 116.88 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 389 12 UTC = 385 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.70 -5.45 18.51 18.81 0.99 0.99 48 -6.06 -6.89 24.93 25.64 0.99 0.99 72 -6.24 -6.77 34.70 35.23 0.97 0.97 96 -7.68 48.55 0.95 120 -9.24 65.66 0.92 144 -12.29 85.70 0.87 168 -15.64 105.07 0.82 192 -18.72 124.46 0.76 216 -23.14 138.48 0.71 240 -24.28 154.04 0.64 264 -23.82 162.43 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 389 12 UTC = 385 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.24 1.60 1.59 0.92 0.92 48 -0.26 -0.25 1.80 1.80 0.94 0.93 72 -0.26 -0.25 2.10 2.08 0.92 0.92 96 -0.25 2.49 0.90 120 -0.25 3.00 0.87 144 -0.30 3.62 0.82 168 -0.36 4.34 0.76 192 -0.32 4.93 0.69 216 -0.30 5.33 0.63 240 -0.21 5.68 0.57 264 -0.05 5.85 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 389 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 1.01 0.98 0.96 0.96 48 -0.09 -0.08 1.26 1.27 0.96 0.96 72 -0.11 -0.09 1.62 1.64 0.94 0.94 96 -0.14 2.08 0.91 120 -0.19 2.58 0.88 144 -0.29 3.13 0.83 168 -0.42 3.71 0.79 192 -0.49 4.23 0.73 216 -0.54 4.66 0.66 240 -0.56 5.00 0.61 264 -0.55 5.17 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 429 12 UTC = 420 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.16 1.20 1.20 0.94 0.94 48 0.03 0.05 1.49 1.49 0.93 0.93 72 -0.02 -0.01 1.84 1.84 0.91 0.91 96 -0.04 2.26 0.87 120 -0.08 2.70 0.83 144 -0.11 3.11 0.79 168 -0.13 3.51 0.74 192 -0.20 3.86 0.69 216 -0.27 4.11 0.65 240 -0.28 4.30 0.62 264 -0.20 4.45 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 425 12 UTC = 417 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.88 4.01 4.02 48 -0.98 -1.03 4.50 4.55 72 -1.06 -1.13 5.24 5.25 96 -1.17 6.17 120 -1.23 7.27 144 -1.24 8.34 168 -1.34 9.41 192 -1.25 9.99 216 -1.22 10.51 240 -1.20 11.20 264 -1.14 11.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 384 12 UTC = 375 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.63 4.44 4.49 48 -0.83 -0.74 5.54 5.63 72 -0.97 -0.91 7.11 7.16 96 -1.01 8.82 120 -1.06 10.76 144 -1.05 12.44 168 -1.09 14.26 192 -1.27 15.54 216 -1.32 16.71 240 -1.29 17.92 264 -1.15 18.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 415 12 UTC = 407 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.76 5.02 5.00 48 -1.01 -0.92 6.42 6.33 72 -1.10 -1.03 8.32 8.20 96 -1.13 10.65 120 -1.22 13.25 144 -1.21 15.97 168 -1.18 18.75 192 -1.43 21.03 216 -1.64 22.97 240 -1.62 25.18 264 -1.35 25.93 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 413 12 UTC = 404 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.07 -3.84 8.12 8.96 0.97 0.97 48 -3.38 -3.82 10.40 10.98 0.96 0.97 72 -3.47 -4.22 12.71 14.21 0.95 0.95 96 -5.01 18.33 0.93 120 -5.42 22.53 0.90 144 -4.42 28.71 0.82 168 -4.55 34.33 0.74 192 -6.55 38.32 0.70 216 -6.73 42.80 0.63 240 -6.21 49.05 0.55 264 -6.39 49.23 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.71 -8.87 12.90 13.61 0.97 0.97 48 -8.85 -8.27 15.59 15.76 0.97 0.98 72 -8.79 -8.65 18.78 19.93 0.96 0.96 96 -9.56 26.30 0.94 120 -10.16 34.52 0.91 144 -9.43 43.65 0.86 168 -8.68 54.39 0.76 192 -10.09 60.12 0.72 216 -12.33 64.95 0.67 240 -11.56 72.58 0.58 264 -11.48 73.12 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.15 -7.76 15.04 17.05 0.98 0.98 48 -6.82 -8.19 19.78 20.87 0.98 0.98 72 -7.66 -9.42 25.77 27.31 0.96 0.97 96 -10.67 36.39 0.95 120 -12.15 49.91 0.92 144 -12.17 62.48 0.88 168 -9.26 78.17 0.79 192 -11.18 89.01 0.74 216 -15.44 95.19 0.70 240 -15.46 104.91 0.63 264 -14.10 108.61 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.68 1.59 1.51 0.88 0.87 48 -0.75 -0.69 1.68 1.63 0.91 0.91 72 -0.73 -0.69 1.82 1.76 0.90 0.90 96 -0.67 1.95 0.89 120 -0.71 2.22 0.87 144 -0.75 2.61 0.81 168 -0.79 3.07 0.73 192 -0.77 3.31 0.70 216 -0.76 3.53 0.68 240 -0.79 3.80 0.61 264 -0.78 3.79 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.12 0.92 0.94 0.90 0.90 48 0.26 0.13 1.05 1.09 0.92 0.92 72 0.27 0.12 1.22 1.27 0.90 0.91 96 0.12 1.58 0.86 120 0.11 1.90 0.85 144 0.09 2.19 0.81 168 0.22 2.54 0.74 192 0.16 2.85 0.67 216 0.04 3.09 0.63 240 0.05 3.16 0.60 264 0.05 3.26 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 49 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.15 0.95 1.04 0.90 0.92 48 -0.15 -0.28 1.23 1.28 0.91 0.92 72 -0.23 -0.35 1.45 1.55 0.89 0.91 96 -0.41 1.92 0.88 120 -0.50 2.25 0.83 144 -0.54 2.56 0.79 168 -0.53 2.99 0.70 192 -0.48 3.12 0.67 216 -0.54 3.33 0.66 240 -0.54 3.56 0.58 264 -0.50 3.58 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 48 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -1.18 4.30 4.41 48 -0.85 -1.27 4.58 4.81 72 -0.95 -1.40 4.98 5.15 96 -1.36 5.76 120 -1.27 6.17 144 -1.29 6.90 168 -1.26 7.56 192 -1.42 8.11 216 -1.32 8.64 240 -1.45 9.05 264 -1.30 9.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.74 3.99 4.00 48 -1.03 -0.82 4.67 4.63 72 -1.21 -0.94 5.47 5.37 96 -1.04 6.73 120 -0.91 7.69 144 -0.90 8.94 168 -0.92 10.06 192 -1.09 10.83 216 -1.01 11.81 240 -1.17 12.39 264 -0.98 12.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 48 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.62 4.89 4.82 48 -0.75 -0.62 6.13 6.06 72 -0.85 -0.82 7.54 7.68 96 -0.86 9.86 120 -0.96 11.49 144 -0.91 13.54 168 -1.02 15.59 192 -0.89 16.92 216 -0.50 19.19 240 -0.66 20.22 264 -0.84 20.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 48 ---------------------------------------------------------