VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY FEBRUARY 2019 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.02 1.03 1.06 0.99 0.99 16.0 16.3 48 0.04 0.00 1.87 1.89 0.98 0.98 25.0 25.5 72 0.05 0.00 2.90 2.91 0.96 0.96 34.0 34.5 96 0.03 4.05 0.92 43.1 120 0.10 5.07 0.87 50.3 144 0.21 6.33 0.80 57.8 168 0.34 7.70 0.71 65.1 192 0.37 8.70 0.62 70.0 216 0.32 9.59 0.53 74.1 240 0.33 10.31 0.46 77.5 264 0.43 11.08 0.40 80.2 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -1.08 7.41 7.61 1.00 1.00 9.3 9.4 48 -1.30 -1.63 15.73 15.94 0.99 0.99 17.2 17.5 72 -1.87 -2.29 26.43 26.79 0.97 0.97 25.6 25.7 96 -2.87 38.53 0.94 33.5 120 -3.27 50.52 0.89 40.5 144 -3.21 64.50 0.83 47.0 168 -2.98 78.90 0.74 53.0 192 -3.29 91.33 0.65 57.5 216 -4.52 104.18 0.54 61.4 240 -5.63 112.79 0.47 64.1 264 -6.06 120.10 0.41 66.4 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.47 -1.59 9.52 9.76 1.00 1.00 7.6 7.7 48 -3.08 -3.31 19.61 19.76 0.99 0.99 13.2 13.3 72 -4.81 -5.10 32.65 32.89 0.97 0.97 19.4 19.5 96 -7.28 47.79 0.94 26.0 120 -9.52 62.98 0.90 32.2 144 -11.03 81.47 0.83 38.3 168 -12.00 99.74 0.75 43.9 192 -12.38 117.73 0.65 48.5 216 -14.10 134.75 0.56 52.3 240 -16.50 147.23 0.48 55.2 264 -18.15 157.23 0.42 57.6 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.52 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 -0.02 -0.01 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 72 -0.05 -0.04 1.47 1.46 0.94 0.94 96 -0.09 2.00 0.88 120 -0.14 2.48 0.82 144 -0.19 2.99 0.73 168 -0.26 3.52 0.64 192 -0.30 3.99 0.55 216 -0.38 4.38 0.47 240 -0.47 4.67 0.40 264 -0.57 4.93 0.34 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.10 0.72 0.72 0.98 0.98 48 -0.24 -0.23 1.23 1.23 0.95 0.95 72 -0.32 -0.31 1.77 1.76 0.90 0.90 96 -0.40 2.26 0.84 120 -0.48 2.73 0.76 144 -0.54 3.18 0.67 168 -0.55 3.60 0.58 192 -0.53 3.89 0.51 216 -0.46 4.13 0.45 240 -0.45 4.35 0.39 264 -0.46 4.48 0.36 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.06 2.38 2.41 48 -0.13 -0.12 4.36 4.44 72 -0.15 -0.14 6.39 6.43 96 -0.16 8.37 120 -0.16 10.19 144 -0.21 11.91 168 -0.23 13.63 192 -0.25 14.95 216 -0.24 16.20 240 -0.22 17.09 264 -0.26 17.81 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.13 3.42 3.43 48 -0.21 -0.22 5.73 5.73 72 -0.28 -0.29 8.12 8.14 96 -0.38 10.62 120 -0.48 13.05 144 -0.60 15.49 168 -0.69 17.80 192 -0.63 20.17 216 -0.39 22.05 240 -0.39 23.60 264 -0.43 24.92 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 0.00 3.25 2.96 0.98 0.98 24.3 24.9 48 -0.45 -0.17 4.58 4.49 0.97 0.96 31.6 32.2 72 -0.71 -0.31 5.60 5.72 0.95 0.94 36.9 37.6 96 -0.50 6.52 0.92 41.8 120 -1.17 7.58 0.90 45.8 144 -2.07 8.90 0.87 49.4 168 -2.57 10.21 0.83 52.7 192 -2.58 11.71 0.76 56.0 216 -2.51 12.64 0.72 58.7 240 -3.18 13.94 0.68 61.5 264 -4.04 15.67 0.63 63.6 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.90 4.45 4.44 0.99 0.99 18.0 18.1 48 -3.82 -3.59 7.67 7.62 0.97 0.97 24.5 24.8 72 -5.95 -5.76 10.57 10.60 0.95 0.94 29.0 29.3 96 -7.89 13.68 0.91 33.7 120 -9.89 16.54 0.87 37.8 144 -11.73 19.46 0.81 41.4 168 -12.91 22.14 0.75 44.9 192 -13.55 24.08 0.70 47.9 216 -14.11 25.91 0.65 50.4 240 -15.09 27.53 0.61 52.9 264 -16.35 29.59 0.55 55.5 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.11 0.40 0.42 0.97 0.97 48 -0.15 -0.15 0.63 0.64 0.93 0.93 72 -0.17 -0.16 0.80 0.80 0.89 0.90 96 -0.16 0.93 0.86 120 -0.15 1.04 0.82 144 -0.14 1.16 0.77 168 -0.15 1.31 0.71 192 -0.16 1.44 0.65 216 -0.17 1.53 0.60 240 -0.16 1.63 0.56 264 -0.17 1.75 0.49 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.34 0.50 0.51 0.95 0.95 48 -0.55 -0.59 0.78 0.81 0.90 0.90 72 -0.68 -0.73 0.96 1.00 0.85 0.84 96 -0.80 1.12 0.79 120 -0.82 1.20 0.74 144 -0.83 1.28 0.68 168 -0.85 1.36 0.63 192 -0.88 1.43 0.58 216 -0.90 1.50 0.55 240 -0.90 1.55 0.51 264 -0.89 1.59 0.48 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.07 1.42 1.43 48 -0.12 -0.13 2.15 2.10 72 -0.16 -0.18 2.67 2.61 96 -0.23 3.00 120 -0.23 3.39 144 -0.20 3.78 168 -0.16 4.16 192 -0.14 4.49 216 -0.10 4.85 240 -0.02 5.20 264 0.07 5.45 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.31 3.09 3.07 48 -0.49 -0.52 4.59 4.53 72 -0.51 -0.52 5.61 5.65 96 -0.52 6.65 120 -0.52 7.51 144 -0.51 8.20 168 -0.50 9.04 192 -0.44 9.79 216 -0.39 10.35 240 -0.37 10.91 264 -0.34 11.59 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.80 1.00 1.00 12.7 13.1 48 -0.02 -0.02 1.51 1.50 0.98 0.98 21.5 22.0 72 -0.02 -0.02 2.38 2.34 0.96 0.96 29.7 30.2 96 -0.03 3.37 0.91 38.3 120 -0.01 4.44 0.85 45.7 144 -0.02 5.51 0.77 52.3 168 -0.07 6.72 0.65 58.5 192 -0.11 7.76 0.53 63.5 216 -0.09 8.68 0.42 67.8 240 -0.02 9.07 0.37 69.5 264 0.03 9.70 0.29 71.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.35 1.22 7.34 7.31 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.5 48 1.93 1.89 14.56 14.65 0.99 0.99 17.0 17.1 72 2.55 2.48 23.36 23.29 0.97 0.97 24.4 24.5 96 2.65 34.40 0.94 31.9 120 2.82 46.83 0.88 39.2 144 2.76 59.39 0.81 46.2 168 2.41 73.78 0.70 52.4 192 2.20 87.73 0.56 57.8 216 2.67 99.96 0.44 62.9 240 3.70 106.87 0.36 65.3 264 3.95 114.73 0.27 67.9 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 -0.05 9.56 9.61 1.00 1.00 8.6 8.6 48 -0.64 -0.73 19.45 19.64 0.99 0.99 15.2 15.1 72 -1.19 -1.36 31.35 31.50 0.97 0.97 21.7 21.9 96 -2.19 46.66 0.94 29.1 120 -2.56 64.01 0.89 36.5 144 -2.61 81.56 0.82 43.3 168 -2.65 100.91 0.72 49.3 192 -2.53 120.41 0.60 54.5 216 -1.47 137.80 0.47 59.6 240 -0.05 149.43 0.38 62.6 264 -0.03 161.44 0.29 65.4 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.05 0.47 0.47 0.99 0.99 48 0.07 0.07 0.88 0.88 0.97 0.97 72 0.08 0.08 1.30 1.31 0.94 0.94 96 0.08 1.74 0.88 120 0.07 2.22 0.81 144 0.07 2.64 0.73 168 0.07 3.07 0.63 192 0.08 3.48 0.52 216 0.11 3.89 0.40 240 0.13 4.19 0.30 264 0.13 4.40 0.24 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.19 0.63 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 -0.33 -0.34 1.12 1.12 0.95 0.95 72 -0.43 -0.45 1.59 1.61 0.90 0.89 96 -0.54 2.11 0.81 120 -0.58 2.59 0.71 144 -0.59 3.04 0.60 168 -0.59 3.46 0.50 192 -0.55 3.76 0.40 216 -0.54 4.08 0.30 240 -0.52 4.27 0.24 264 -0.54 4.41 0.18 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.16 2.09 2.09 48 -0.28 -0.27 3.72 3.77 72 -0.36 -0.37 5.32 5.38 96 -0.44 7.02 120 -0.47 8.78 144 -0.54 10.41 168 -0.59 11.90 192 -0.63 13.37 216 -0.68 14.79 240 -0.75 15.55 264 -0.81 16.20 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.14 3.15 3.15 48 -0.24 -0.22 5.50 5.52 72 -0.29 -0.29 7.90 8.00 96 -0.34 10.61 120 -0.34 13.39 144 -0.41 15.93 168 -0.46 18.30 192 -0.44 20.47 216 -0.53 22.59 240 -0.61 24.08 264 -0.71 25.28 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.82 -2.39 9.27 9.46 0.99 0.98 48 -3.19 -4.50 13.19 13.49 0.98 0.98 72 -4.46 -6.61 19.31 19.54 0.96 0.96 96 -8.56 28.31 0.94 120 -6.48 36.06 0.89 144 -4.78 45.98 0.81 168 -2.19 53.32 0.73 192 -1.07 59.06 0.65 216 -1.93 65.59 0.61 240 1.59 70.40 0.57 264 4.04 75.57 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.78 -4.34 10.71 11.42 0.99 0.99 48 -6.43 -7.41 17.57 17.58 0.99 0.99 72 -8.57 -11.29 28.09 27.91 0.97 0.98 96 -14.06 41.75 0.95 120 -14.38 54.25 0.93 144 -15.42 67.21 0.90 168 -16.02 80.52 0.85 192 -14.88 93.80 0.78 216 -13.80 105.98 0.73 240 -11.49 113.94 0.68 264 -9.02 122.79 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.31 -5.51 14.54 14.76 0.99 0.99 48 -10.75 -11.20 24.95 25.01 0.99 0.99 72 -13.49 -15.61 38.57 37.39 0.98 0.98 96 -18.76 55.88 0.96 120 -21.98 74.71 0.93 144 -24.31 94.57 0.90 168 -26.50 111.68 0.87 192 -24.74 133.99 0.80 216 -24.19 148.43 0.78 240 -25.38 160.57 0.72 264 -24.48 174.88 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.15 1.71 1.77 0.93 0.92 48 0.00 -0.07 1.91 2.01 0.95 0.94 72 0.06 -0.09 2.30 2.36 0.93 0.93 96 -0.08 3.00 0.92 120 -0.20 3.70 0.88 144 -0.46 4.51 0.84 168 -0.70 5.35 0.78 192 -0.90 5.92 0.77 216 -0.69 6.54 0.69 240 -0.83 7.34 0.65 264 -0.71 7.90 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 0.00 1.03 0.98 0.96 0.96 48 -0.16 -0.15 1.30 1.27 0.97 0.96 72 -0.23 -0.24 1.78 1.67 0.95 0.95 96 -0.33 2.31 0.91 120 -0.48 2.91 0.88 144 -0.68 3.65 0.85 168 -0.82 4.13 0.83 192 -0.79 4.80 0.75 216 -0.83 5.17 0.74 240 -1.08 5.52 0.69 264 -1.19 5.93 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.17 1.14 1.15 0.95 0.94 48 0.05 0.09 1.45 1.50 0.95 0.94 72 0.05 0.12 2.00 1.98 0.91 0.92 96 0.14 2.45 0.88 120 0.03 2.89 0.82 144 0.06 3.36 0.75 168 0.16 3.80 0.71 192 0.35 3.98 0.67 216 0.42 4.15 0.65 240 0.60 4.33 0.66 264 0.55 4.48 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.94 4.14 4.21 48 -0.87 -1.03 4.65 4.75 72 -0.85 -1.04 5.52 5.63 96 -1.05 6.69 120 -1.39 7.92 144 -1.46 9.21 168 -1.52 10.69 192 -1.46 11.10 216 -1.34 11.69 240 -1.13 12.68 264 -1.28 13.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.75 4.68 4.72 48 -0.82 -0.88 5.84 5.84 72 -0.81 -0.90 7.63 7.44 96 -0.91 9.57 120 -0.88 11.36 144 -0.75 13.14 168 -0.89 15.15 192 -0.37 16.66 216 -0.26 17.91 240 -0.68 18.91 264 -1.09 20.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.88 5.86 5.86 48 -0.80 -1.08 8.00 7.75 72 -0.92 -1.16 10.67 10.23 96 -1.09 13.02 120 -1.00 15.84 144 -0.79 18.61 168 -0.54 21.15 192 0.03 23.72 216 -0.08 25.16 240 -0.56 26.94 264 -1.08 29.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.89 -7.37 10.39 11.15 0.98 0.98 48 -8.56 -9.65 14.96 14.90 0.97 0.98 72 -10.90 -11.95 21.00 21.58 0.96 0.97 96 -13.60 29.73 0.94 120 -13.62 38.61 0.92 144 -13.25 48.12 0.84 168 -11.86 60.21 0.76 192 -9.65 70.38 0.67 216 -13.68 78.36 0.56 240 -24.12 90.29 0.47 264 -39.37 102.89 0.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.44 -10.07 13.83 13.98 0.99 0.99 48 -12.36 -12.42 20.48 19.11 0.98 0.99 72 -14.37 -15.29 29.08 29.66 0.97 0.97 96 -16.51 41.60 0.95 120 -19.81 54.59 0.93 144 -21.59 69.67 0.85 168 -25.76 88.92 0.76 192 -29.39 105.08 0.71 216 -32.14 121.85 0.62 240 -48.17 142.15 0.50 264 -65.57 155.41 0.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.18 -10.22 16.13 15.56 0.99 0.99 48 -12.55 -13.25 24.52 23.09 0.99 0.99 72 -15.56 -17.37 36.74 38.20 0.98 0.97 96 -19.38 54.70 0.94 120 -27.07 72.60 0.93 144 -32.30 95.41 0.84 168 -40.64 115.30 0.76 192 -48.04 134.65 0.71 216 -45.55 162.86 0.63 240 -67.39 189.83 0.54 264 -86.07 207.73 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.28 1.39 1.27 0.91 0.91 48 -0.56 -0.36 1.59 1.46 0.92 0.93 72 -0.58 -0.40 1.87 1.74 0.92 0.92 96 -0.29 2.05 0.90 120 -0.48 2.50 0.88 144 -0.61 3.17 0.79 168 -0.93 4.03 0.68 192 -1.46 4.45 0.65 216 -1.42 4.87 0.61 240 -1.55 5.49 0.51 264 -1.53 5.64 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.08 0.81 0.76 0.96 0.96 48 -0.10 -0.10 1.10 1.04 0.95 0.95 72 -0.11 -0.13 1.55 1.51 0.93 0.91 96 -0.13 1.99 0.87 120 -0.35 2.35 0.87 144 -0.56 2.91 0.77 168 -0.86 3.28 0.72 192 -1.12 3.60 0.71 216 -0.97 4.31 0.65 240 -1.48 4.96 0.57 264 -1.58 5.17 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.27 0.99 0.93 0.93 0.93 48 0.30 0.28 1.29 1.19 0.89 0.90 72 0.19 0.21 1.61 1.56 0.86 0.84 96 0.18 1.90 0.82 120 0.12 2.16 0.76 144 0.04 2.49 0.71 168 0.08 2.81 0.68 192 0.03 2.85 0.65 216 0.30 3.16 0.63 240 0.22 3.27 0.62 264 0.44 3.27 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.58 4.10 4.04 48 -0.72 -0.68 4.77 4.65 72 -0.86 -0.80 5.70 5.55 96 -1.07 6.61 120 -1.35 7.61 144 -1.48 8.75 168 -1.48 9.80 192 -1.52 10.39 216 -1.61 11.08 240 -1.18 12.20 264 -1.04 12.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.55 4.46 4.25 48 -0.60 -0.64 5.66 5.46 72 -0.70 -0.55 7.42 7.36 96 -0.86 9.51 120 -1.08 11.48 144 -1.48 13.61 168 -1.67 15.76 192 -1.91 16.77 216 -1.43 18.09 240 -1.20 20.14 264 -0.80 21.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.53 4.91 4.82 48 -0.32 -0.54 6.63 6.54 72 -0.23 -0.45 9.48 9.57 96 -0.86 13.01 120 -0.96 15.37 144 -1.30 19.40 168 -2.01 21.63 192 -2.16 22.99 216 -1.26 25.94 240 -1.66 29.20 264 -0.30 30.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.26 0.79 11.97 10.41 0.95 0.95 48 3.34 1.98 14.20 13.02 0.96 0.96 72 3.01 2.00 17.03 16.09 0.95 0.95 96 0.74 20.17 0.93 120 -1.17 24.82 0.90 144 -2.36 30.49 0.83 168 -2.44 36.01 0.79 192 -2.52 43.44 0.73 216 -5.81 49.59 0.67 240 -6.89 50.03 0.68 264 -5.70 50.60 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 117 12 UTC = 116 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.01 0.36 12.91 13.53 0.97 0.97 48 3.51 2.93 16.08 17.22 0.98 0.97 72 4.53 4.85 21.66 22.67 0.96 0.96 96 4.39 29.55 0.93 120 2.43 40.10 0.88 144 1.57 51.40 0.81 168 2.96 59.75 0.76 192 2.75 70.48 0.74 216 -0.99 82.06 0.73 240 -1.37 85.27 0.71 264 -0.75 84.88 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 127 12 UTC = 125 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.47 -3.64 19.78 20.87 0.97 0.96 48 -2.05 -2.14 23.43 24.38 0.98 0.97 72 -1.81 -0.60 29.72 30.99 0.97 0.96 96 -0.67 38.40 0.94 120 -2.01 52.66 0.90 144 -2.31 68.79 0.83 168 -1.38 79.35 0.80 192 -1.77 93.17 0.78 216 -5.15 107.87 0.76 240 -5.21 116.68 0.73 264 -4.39 119.11 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 124 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.31 1.91 1.82 0.87 0.88 48 -0.03 -0.20 2.13 2.08 0.89 0.90 72 0.06 -0.09 2.31 2.33 0.88 0.88 96 -0.05 2.60 0.86 120 -0.01 2.99 0.85 144 0.01 3.47 0.80 168 0.13 4.08 0.76 192 0.16 4.71 0.73 216 0.22 5.32 0.71 240 0.23 5.62 0.69 264 0.26 5.74 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.14 1.07 1.04 0.94 0.94 48 -0.16 -0.10 1.23 1.25 0.94 0.94 72 -0.14 -0.05 1.47 1.51 0.93 0.92 96 -0.05 1.76 0.91 120 -0.04 2.23 0.86 144 -0.01 2.71 0.79 168 -0.04 3.17 0.77 192 -0.11 3.68 0.75 216 -0.12 3.94 0.75 240 -0.10 4.13 0.72 264 -0.19 4.25 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.24 1.38 1.35 0.90 0.90 48 0.01 0.09 1.65 1.56 0.91 0.91 72 0.00 0.02 1.90 1.87 0.90 0.89 96 0.01 2.23 0.87 120 0.12 2.65 0.84 144 0.23 3.01 0.78 168 0.33 3.41 0.71 192 0.35 3.74 0.67 216 0.46 4.04 0.62 240 0.56 4.19 0.59 264 0.53 4.34 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 147 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.98 3.93 3.80 48 -0.83 -1.01 4.23 4.13 72 -0.85 -1.04 4.64 4.54 96 -1.00 4.97 120 -0.97 5.60 144 -1.01 6.28 168 -0.96 6.83 192 -0.99 7.74 216 -0.84 8.43 240 -0.73 8.52 264 -0.88 8.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 131 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.46 4.58 4.69 48 -0.83 -0.60 5.39 5.57 72 -0.90 -0.72 6.46 6.56 96 -0.62 7.64 120 -0.61 9.19 144 -0.57 10.51 168 -0.73 11.56 192 -0.55 12.77 216 -0.63 13.89 240 -0.70 14.08 264 -0.73 13.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 146 12 UTC = 145 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.91 -0.88 5.64 5.92 48 -1.07 -1.08 6.81 6.96 72 -1.33 -1.24 8.12 8.32 96 -1.27 9.92 120 -1.32 11.89 144 -1.21 13.68 168 -1.16 14.95 192 -0.71 16.76 216 -0.91 18.56 240 -0.99 19.43 264 -0.98 20.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 144 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.26 -5.67 8.54 11.15 0.98 0.98 48 -2.63 -5.08 9.82 12.52 0.98 0.98 72 -1.73 -3.92 12.68 15.10 0.96 0.97 96 -4.78 20.24 0.94 120 -6.63 26.03 0.88 144 -6.55 28.76 0.90 168 -4.61 32.07 0.85 192 -4.20 37.25 0.81 216 -1.48 41.06 0.75 240 -2.88 51.06 0.63 264 -4.81 50.95 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.46 -12.46 11.89 16.86 0.98 0.98 48 -8.88 -12.13 13.71 18.29 0.99 0.99 72 -8.29 -11.84 16.26 21.41 0.98 0.98 96 -14.02 28.28 0.96 120 -16.36 34.65 0.90 144 -17.02 41.41 0.89 168 -15.20 46.08 0.83 192 -14.19 50.31 0.83 216 -14.57 57.85 0.77 240 -11.66 62.98 0.71 264 -13.35 71.01 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.50 -10.86 11.95 16.53 0.98 0.99 48 -8.64 -10.93 16.25 20.15 0.99 0.99 72 -9.44 -12.14 23.25 26.43 0.98 0.98 96 -17.06 37.53 0.96 120 -19.66 47.93 0.92 144 -21.40 57.50 0.89 168 -20.81 67.14 0.81 192 -17.45 79.00 0.74 216 -16.35 85.00 0.76 240 -10.12 89.18 0.72 264 -16.32 97.79 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.78 1.47 1.45 0.86 0.86 48 -0.79 -0.80 1.59 1.59 0.92 0.94 72 -0.72 -0.82 1.67 1.67 0.92 0.93 96 -0.84 1.93 0.89 120 -0.87 2.17 0.86 144 -0.92 2.43 0.83 168 -0.82 2.46 0.86 192 -0.89 2.94 0.76 216 -1.08 3.28 0.73 240 -0.94 3.53 0.64 264 -0.82 3.73 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.15 0.93 0.89 0.88 0.90 48 0.22 0.14 1.02 1.03 0.90 0.92 72 0.20 0.12 1.16 1.23 0.90 0.91 96 0.03 1.40 0.87 120 0.05 1.67 0.81 144 0.00 1.85 0.79 168 -0.14 1.99 0.76 192 0.04 2.64 0.66 216 -0.08 2.69 0.65 240 0.18 2.70 0.65 264 0.20 2.91 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.05 0.83 0.94 0.90 0.88 48 -0.24 -0.14 1.05 1.14 0.90 0.91 72 -0.37 -0.23 1.26 1.36 0.90 0.91 96 -0.37 1.60 0.86 120 -0.37 1.94 0.82 144 -0.32 2.18 0.80 168 -0.34 2.43 0.64 192 -0.36 2.74 0.65 216 -0.10 3.02 0.60 240 -0.14 3.14 0.58 264 -0.53 3.07 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.73 3.89 3.98 48 -0.47 -0.82 4.28 4.22 72 -0.49 -0.77 4.64 4.67 96 -0.70 5.39 120 -0.66 6.19 144 -0.64 7.02 168 -0.60 7.32 192 -0.60 8.20 216 -0.53 8.53 240 -0.69 9.63 264 -1.04 9.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -0.62 3.90 3.88 48 -1.18 -0.57 4.50 4.43 72 -1.32 -0.81 5.17 5.15 96 -0.68 6.46 120 -0.80 7.86 144 -0.84 8.42 168 -0.99 8.87 192 -0.41 10.42 216 -0.56 11.28 240 -0.39 13.02 264 -0.85 13.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -0.71 4.66 4.86 48 -0.97 -0.71 5.67 5.90 72 -1.11 -0.88 6.79 7.26 96 -0.95 9.54 120 -0.71 12.09 144 -0.85 13.49 168 -1.08 14.37 192 -0.16 15.28 216 -0.39 17.74 240 -0.20 19.85 264 -0.03 20.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.57 -1.92 8.98 8.67 0.77 0.74 48 -2.90 -2.01 9.39 9.00 0.83 0.80 72 -3.20 -2.08 10.11 9.52 0.83 0.82 96 -2.44 10.08 0.82 120 -3.78 11.00 0.82 144 -4.64 11.70 0.81 168 -4.88 12.85 0.77 192 -4.52 14.13 0.70 216 -4.60 14.74 0.67 240 -5.33 15.83 0.65 264 -6.14 17.34 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.51 -5.31 11.67 10.82 0.70 0.65 48 -7.10 -5.78 12.23 11.30 0.81 0.77 72 -7.76 -6.32 12.99 11.96 0.83 0.81 96 -7.33 12.80 0.82 120 -8.98 14.29 0.81 144 -10.12 15.50 0.80 168 -10.66 16.61 0.77 192 -10.71 17.58 0.72 216 -11.27 18.75 0.68 240 -12.03 19.49 0.67 264 -13.06 21.21 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.23 -6.45 14.21 12.66 0.71 0.72 48 -9.87 -8.79 15.92 14.38 0.83 0.84 72 -11.92 -10.73 17.89 16.26 0.85 0.85 96 -12.66 18.42 0.85 120 -15.34 21.36 0.84 144 -17.31 23.47 0.81 168 -18.14 24.90 0.78 192 -18.37 25.92 0.76 216 -18.89 27.81 0.71 240 -20.04 29.09 0.71 264 -21.44 30.94 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.49 1.07 1.03 0.52 0.45 48 -0.53 -0.53 1.10 1.08 0.58 0.59 72 -0.51 -0.52 1.14 1.10 0.62 0.65 96 -0.52 1.15 0.66 120 -0.51 1.17 0.68 144 -0.49 1.19 0.68 168 -0.51 1.26 0.63 192 -0.52 1.33 0.58 216 -0.52 1.36 0.57 240 -0.50 1.41 0.53 264 -0.48 1.45 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.20 0.80 0.78 0.58 0.60 48 0.17 0.19 0.83 0.81 0.65 0.66 72 0.16 0.18 0.86 0.84 0.68 0.69 96 0.15 0.89 0.72 120 0.13 0.96 0.70 144 0.13 1.02 0.68 168 0.10 1.05 0.67 192 0.07 1.09 0.66 216 0.05 1.14 0.62 240 0.06 1.17 0.62 264 0.02 1.21 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.35 0.68 0.71 0.68 0.67 48 -0.50 -0.55 0.85 0.86 0.72 0.73 72 -0.60 -0.65 1.00 0.98 0.68 0.74 96 -0.70 1.06 0.74 120 -0.75 1.14 0.73 144 -0.79 1.22 0.69 168 -0.79 1.26 0.65 192 -0.82 1.32 0.63 216 -0.85 1.36 0.62 240 -0.85 1.42 0.60 264 -0.84 1.47 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.32 3.29 3.26 48 -0.25 -0.29 3.53 3.49 72 -0.22 -0.29 3.76 3.70 96 -0.30 3.95 120 -0.30 4.18 144 -0.29 4.41 168 -0.24 4.59 192 -0.22 4.92 216 -0.22 5.18 240 -0.17 5.46 264 -0.23 5.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.05 -1.00 3.75 3.72 48 -1.20 -1.07 4.16 3.99 72 -1.22 -1.12 4.51 4.34 96 -1.21 4.70 120 -1.24 5.06 144 -1.21 5.52 168 -1.20 5.94 192 -1.14 6.29 216 -1.14 6.62 240 -1.19 7.09 264 -1.26 7.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.17 -0.99 4.44 4.51 48 -1.32 -1.38 5.29 5.34 72 -1.39 -1.44 5.89 5.99 96 -1.53 6.52 120 -1.62 7.04 144 -1.70 7.58 168 -1.74 8.19 192 -1.64 8.89 216 -1.52 9.32 240 -1.36 9.98 264 -1.15 10.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.63 -2.36 10.99 10.77 0.98 0.98 48 -2.12 -2.83 14.52 14.30 0.98 0.98 72 -2.80 -3.73 19.89 19.96 0.97 0.97 96 -4.32 27.91 0.95 120 -4.39 35.26 0.92 144 -4.07 43.37 0.88 168 -2.63 52.60 0.81 192 -1.56 60.84 0.73 216 -3.84 67.65 0.66 240 -6.62 73.53 0.63 264 -7.88 79.52 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 372 12 UTC = 365 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.38 -3.67 13.03 13.25 0.99 0.99 48 -3.86 -4.09 18.55 18.55 0.98 0.98 72 -4.23 -4.81 27.56 27.61 0.97 0.97 96 -5.58 39.60 0.95 120 -6.65 51.54 0.92 144 -7.44 64.21 0.88 168 -7.38 78.48 0.83 192 -7.38 92.56 0.75 216 -9.06 103.98 0.71 240 -13.66 113.48 0.67 264 -15.74 120.80 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 387 12 UTC = 379 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.32 -5.33 18.30 18.55 0.99 0.98 48 -7.00 -7.17 25.20 25.12 0.99 0.99 72 -8.18 -8.62 36.48 36.52 0.98 0.98 96 -10.10 51.20 0.96 120 -13.04 67.49 0.93 144 -14.97 85.97 0.89 168 -16.53 102.75 0.85 192 -17.25 122.11 0.78 216 -18.11 138.44 0.74 240 -24.00 152.66 0.69 264 -26.99 164.28 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 386 12 UTC = 377 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.24 1.67 1.63 0.92 0.92 48 -0.19 -0.22 1.88 1.86 0.94 0.94 72 -0.16 -0.19 2.17 2.16 0.93 0.93 96 -0.18 2.59 0.91 120 -0.22 3.10 0.88 144 -0.31 3.68 0.85 168 -0.39 4.41 0.78 192 -0.50 4.99 0.74 216 -0.42 5.47 0.70 240 -0.50 6.00 0.66 264 -0.46 6.34 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 386 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.07 1.00 0.97 0.95 0.96 48 -0.12 -0.10 1.24 1.23 0.96 0.96 72 -0.13 -0.11 1.64 1.61 0.94 0.94 96 -0.15 2.09 0.92 120 -0.23 2.58 0.88 144 -0.30 3.12 0.84 168 -0.41 3.59 0.80 192 -0.48 4.11 0.75 216 -0.46 4.47 0.73 240 -0.64 4.82 0.69 264 -0.73 5.09 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 431 12 UTC = 419 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.21 1.24 1.23 0.93 0.93 48 0.08 0.11 1.54 1.51 0.93 0.93 72 0.02 0.05 1.94 1.92 0.90 0.90 96 0.01 2.37 0.87 120 -0.01 2.77 0.83 144 -0.01 3.15 0.78 168 0.06 3.56 0.72 192 0.06 3.83 0.68 216 0.14 4.03 0.65 240 0.27 4.17 0.63 264 0.25 4.28 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 426 12 UTC = 414 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.84 4.00 3.95 48 -0.79 -0.90 4.51 4.46 72 -0.83 -0.95 5.30 5.25 96 -1.02 6.16 120 -1.15 7.07 144 -1.17 8.01 168 -1.17 9.08 192 -1.20 9.75 216 -1.10 10.38 240 -0.93 10.95 264 -1.03 11.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 383 12 UTC = 372 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.62 4.52 4.53 48 -0.80 -0.72 5.63 5.65 72 -0.82 -0.76 7.24 7.21 96 -0.76 8.97 120 -0.78 10.69 144 -0.76 12.29 168 -0.95 13.95 192 -0.88 15.18 216 -0.75 16.28 240 -0.71 17.20 264 -0.78 17.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 414 12 UTC = 404 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.74 5.31 5.40 48 -0.76 -0.84 6.95 6.93 72 -0.82 -0.89 9.20 9.17 96 -0.98 11.69 120 -1.01 14.09 144 -0.97 16.53 168 -1.11 18.57 192 -0.96 20.47 216 -0.77 22.42 240 -0.89 24.22 264 -0.88 25.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 410 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.19 -2.56 8.02 8.52 0.98 0.98 48 -2.10 -3.00 10.37 10.93 0.98 0.98 72 -2.17 -2.95 13.83 14.35 0.96 0.97 96 -3.51 20.17 0.95 120 -4.45 25.39 0.92 144 -5.06 30.20 0.89 168 -7.03 37.28 0.84 192 -6.96 42.51 0.74 216 -6.79 47.04 0.68 240 -6.09 49.59 0.65 264 -7.66 51.87 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.63 -7.66 11.80 12.73 0.98 0.98 48 -7.71 -7.70 14.65 15.98 0.98 0.98 72 -7.65 -7.44 18.30 20.86 0.98 0.97 96 -8.46 28.50 0.96 120 -10.65 37.35 0.94 144 -12.77 45.10 0.91 168 -14.14 56.63 0.84 192 -14.31 65.46 0.77 216 -14.65 70.42 0.73 240 -13.75 72.71 0.71 264 -14.89 79.33 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.99 -6.41 14.57 16.68 0.98 0.99 48 -7.15 -7.86 19.95 23.11 0.99 0.99 72 -7.66 -9.08 27.77 31.00 0.98 0.98 96 -12.37 41.87 0.96 120 -16.49 54.63 0.95 144 -20.10 67.42 0.92 168 -22.05 84.22 0.86 192 -24.59 100.39 0.77 216 -24.41 106.07 0.74 240 -20.21 112.36 0.72 264 -20.54 120.09 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.68 1.59 1.55 0.88 0.87 48 -0.79 -0.69 1.71 1.66 0.92 0.92 72 -0.74 -0.66 1.83 1.81 0.92 0.93 96 -0.64 2.04 0.91 120 -0.75 2.24 0.90 144 -0.84 2.70 0.87 168 -0.79 2.96 0.86 192 -0.78 3.42 0.77 216 -0.79 3.74 0.71 240 -0.79 3.93 0.65 264 -0.77 4.22 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.15 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.92 48 0.26 0.15 1.07 1.10 0.93 0.93 72 0.27 0.15 1.25 1.39 0.93 0.92 96 0.09 1.61 0.90 120 -0.04 1.96 0.88 144 -0.14 2.27 0.85 168 -0.16 2.63 0.80 192 -0.17 3.07 0.72 216 -0.13 3.31 0.67 240 -0.06 3.40 0.64 264 0.01 3.56 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 47 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.18 0.99 1.16 0.91 0.91 48 -0.26 -0.31 1.21 1.37 0.92 0.91 72 -0.34 -0.43 1.49 1.72 0.90 0.89 96 -0.51 2.02 0.87 120 -0.50 2.42 0.81 144 -0.56 2.62 0.79 168 -0.60 2.93 0.72 192 -0.62 3.18 0.70 216 -0.61 3.61 0.63 240 -0.50 3.76 0.60 264 -0.53 3.75 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 47 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -1.12 4.19 4.53 48 -0.67 -1.22 4.55 4.73 72 -0.63 -1.32 4.93 5.13 96 -1.30 5.66 120 -1.35 6.38 144 -1.43 7.13 168 -1.22 7.90 192 -1.52 8.95 216 -1.61 9.07 240 -1.46 9.61 264 -1.49 10.02 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.59 3.99 4.08 48 -0.92 -0.62 4.69 4.91 72 -0.97 -0.71 5.56 5.92 96 -0.81 6.99 120 -0.95 8.55 144 -1.26 9.39 168 -1.47 10.63 192 -1.68 12.04 216 -1.67 12.76 240 -1.57 13.72 264 -1.57 14.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 46 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.76 5.14 5.21 48 -0.97 -0.93 6.39 6.78 72 -0.93 -1.03 7.82 8.62 96 -1.24 10.89 120 -1.55 12.99 144 -1.76 15.03 168 -2.17 16.93 192 -2.00 18.68 216 -1.76 19.86 240 -1.72 21.71 264 -1.56 23.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 46 ---------------------------------------------------------