VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MARCH 2019 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.01 0.90 0.91 0.99 0.99 15.9 16.3 48 0.04 0.00 1.68 1.67 0.98 0.98 25.4 25.7 72 0.05 0.01 2.66 2.67 0.96 0.95 34.8 35.4 96 0.04 3.79 0.90 44.8 120 0.04 5.06 0.83 54.1 144 0.04 6.22 0.75 61.7 168 0.08 7.33 0.65 67.5 192 0.07 8.31 0.57 72.5 216 -0.03 9.04 0.49 76.0 240 -0.03 9.51 0.43 78.2 264 -0.05 9.78 0.41 79.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.80 6.79 6.87 1.00 1.00 9.2 9.2 48 -0.94 -1.28 14.47 14.55 0.99 0.99 17.2 17.3 72 -1.37 -1.66 24.35 24.79 0.97 0.97 25.5 25.8 96 -1.94 37.24 0.93 34.5 120 -2.07 50.66 0.86 42.4 144 -1.87 63.32 0.79 48.9 168 -1.31 76.00 0.70 54.0 192 -1.01 87.50 0.61 58.4 216 -1.58 97.35 0.52 61.8 240 -1.28 104.31 0.45 64.3 264 -1.00 108.40 0.41 65.9 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.01 -1.02 9.13 9.25 1.00 1.00 7.5 7.6 48 -2.34 -2.35 18.70 18.76 0.99 0.99 13.1 13.2 72 -3.79 -3.82 31.32 31.49 0.97 0.97 19.6 19.7 96 -5.11 48.16 0.94 27.1 120 -5.85 65.16 0.88 33.9 144 -5.66 81.69 0.81 40.0 168 -5.12 99.21 0.73 45.3 192 -4.91 114.89 0.64 49.9 216 -5.33 130.01 0.54 53.7 240 -5.15 139.81 0.47 56.3 264 -5.07 145.92 0.43 57.9 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.48 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 0.02 0.03 0.91 0.90 0.97 0.97 72 -0.01 0.00 1.40 1.42 0.94 0.93 96 -0.03 1.98 0.87 120 -0.04 2.51 0.80 144 -0.01 3.02 0.71 168 0.00 3.52 0.60 192 0.01 3.91 0.51 216 0.01 4.32 0.40 240 0.02 4.53 0.35 264 0.03 4.67 0.31 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.09 0.66 0.66 0.98 0.98 48 -0.22 -0.20 1.12 1.11 0.95 0.95 72 -0.30 -0.27 1.60 1.62 0.90 0.90 96 -0.33 2.15 0.82 120 -0.37 2.62 0.73 144 -0.39 3.05 0.64 168 -0.39 3.39 0.55 192 -0.40 3.68 0.46 216 -0.41 3.92 0.39 240 -0.41 4.09 0.34 264 -0.43 4.25 0.29 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.04 2.20 2.22 48 -0.12 -0.11 4.05 4.08 72 -0.17 -0.15 5.99 6.07 96 -0.15 8.12 120 -0.13 10.09 144 -0.09 11.77 168 -0.09 13.21 192 -0.04 14.44 216 -0.01 15.52 240 0.02 16.36 264 0.01 16.87 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.15 3.27 3.26 48 -0.28 -0.26 5.44 5.42 72 -0.38 -0.35 7.90 7.85 96 -0.41 10.73 120 -0.41 13.54 144 -0.40 16.04 168 -0.46 18.34 192 -0.46 20.24 216 -0.52 22.18 240 -0.59 23.57 264 -0.68 24.39 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.14 3.05 2.98 0.98 0.98 24.7 25.1 48 -0.51 -0.40 4.17 4.47 0.96 0.95 31.7 32.2 72 -0.83 -0.70 4.97 5.35 0.94 0.93 36.9 37.4 96 -0.99 6.20 0.90 41.9 120 -1.27 7.46 0.86 46.0 144 -1.56 8.58 0.82 49.9 168 -1.82 9.93 0.77 53.5 192 -1.94 10.83 0.74 55.9 216 -1.73 11.37 0.72 57.4 240 -1.28 11.88 0.70 58.9 264 -1.14 12.39 0.67 60.4 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.25 -1.34 4.32 4.30 0.99 0.98 19.0 19.3 48 -4.04 -4.01 7.51 7.64 0.97 0.96 26.0 26.3 72 -6.33 -6.33 10.34 10.57 0.94 0.93 31.3 31.7 96 -8.25 13.07 0.90 36.3 120 -9.86 15.42 0.86 40.3 144 -11.21 17.61 0.81 43.8 168 -12.68 20.29 0.75 47.4 192 -13.87 22.61 0.68 50.9 216 -14.54 24.13 0.62 53.9 240 -14.99 25.47 0.56 56.4 264 -15.82 26.98 0.50 58.5 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.09 0.39 0.40 0.97 0.97 48 -0.12 -0.12 0.59 0.59 0.92 0.93 72 -0.12 -0.12 0.74 0.73 0.87 0.89 96 -0.11 0.83 0.86 120 -0.09 0.92 0.83 144 -0.09 1.05 0.78 168 -0.12 1.17 0.73 192 -0.16 1.27 0.68 216 -0.18 1.35 0.64 240 -0.21 1.40 0.62 264 -0.23 1.46 0.58 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.34 0.46 0.48 0.94 0.94 48 -0.54 -0.58 0.72 0.74 0.87 0.87 72 -0.66 -0.70 0.87 0.90 0.81 0.80 96 -0.78 1.01 0.75 120 -0.83 1.11 0.68 144 -0.88 1.19 0.62 168 -0.91 1.25 0.55 192 -0.94 1.30 0.50 216 -0.97 1.35 0.45 240 -1.00 1.39 0.42 264 -1.03 1.44 0.37 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.12 1.37 1.34 48 -0.21 -0.18 2.00 1.97 72 -0.25 -0.23 2.47 2.45 96 -0.28 2.85 120 -0.30 3.25 144 -0.29 3.66 168 -0.28 4.03 192 -0.27 4.29 216 -0.24 4.44 240 -0.25 4.62 264 -0.29 4.76 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.27 2.88 2.94 48 -0.44 -0.46 4.31 4.37 72 -0.61 -0.61 5.42 5.49 96 -0.75 6.39 120 -0.82 7.20 144 -0.92 7.96 168 -0.95 8.69 192 -1.00 9.39 216 -1.06 10.00 240 -1.13 10.53 264 -1.19 10.99 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.01 0.85 0.83 1.00 1.00 12.0 12.1 48 -0.02 0.00 1.68 1.66 0.98 0.98 21.0 21.0 72 0.00 0.01 2.60 2.56 0.96 0.95 29.0 29.0 96 0.01 3.62 0.91 36.6 120 0.01 4.86 0.84 44.0 144 0.01 5.95 0.75 50.0 168 0.01 6.99 0.66 55.7 192 0.03 7.64 0.59 59.0 216 0.11 8.32 0.51 61.4 240 0.04 9.09 0.43 64.8 264 0.05 9.55 0.39 66.7 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.88 0.90 7.53 7.30 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.6 48 1.31 1.35 15.62 15.38 0.99 0.99 17.7 17.5 72 1.74 1.74 25.16 25.06 0.97 0.97 25.5 25.3 96 1.96 36.30 0.93 33.0 120 2.08 49.44 0.86 40.3 144 1.97 62.13 0.78 46.8 168 1.54 73.82 0.69 52.3 192 1.35 82.86 0.61 56.2 216 1.41 91.59 0.52 59.4 240 0.83 102.45 0.41 63.0 264 1.00 108.19 0.35 65.5 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.14 9.87 9.52 1.00 1.00 8.7 8.5 48 -0.75 -0.91 20.30 20.05 0.99 0.99 15.3 15.1 72 -1.48 -1.57 33.23 33.15 0.97 0.97 22.2 22.1 96 -2.25 48.00 0.93 29.3 120 -2.98 65.54 0.88 36.3 144 -3.94 83.84 0.80 42.8 168 -5.46 101.38 0.70 48.5 192 -6.32 114.84 0.62 52.5 216 -6.61 125.94 0.54 55.8 240 -7.01 142.08 0.43 59.7 264 -7.17 150.50 0.37 62.1 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.04 0.50 0.49 0.99 0.99 48 0.06 0.05 0.93 0.93 0.97 0.97 72 0.06 0.05 1.39 1.38 0.93 0.93 96 0.06 1.85 0.87 120 0.05 2.35 0.79 144 0.02 2.85 0.69 168 -0.01 3.29 0.58 192 -0.03 3.63 0.49 216 -0.06 3.89 0.42 240 -0.05 4.22 0.32 264 -0.04 4.44 0.26 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.17 0.63 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 -0.29 -0.30 1.12 1.12 0.95 0.95 72 -0.40 -0.41 1.62 1.60 0.89 0.89 96 -0.50 2.10 0.81 120 -0.58 2.57 0.72 144 -0.64 2.99 0.61 168 -0.71 3.37 0.51 192 -0.73 3.70 0.41 216 -0.73 3.92 0.34 240 -0.76 4.15 0.27 264 -0.81 4.31 0.22 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.15 2.17 2.14 48 -0.22 -0.22 3.96 3.92 72 -0.27 -0.29 5.70 5.68 96 -0.32 7.52 120 -0.34 9.33 144 -0.36 10.96 168 -0.37 12.41 192 -0.38 13.48 216 -0.35 14.40 240 -0.29 15.54 264 -0.24 16.32 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.15 3.25 3.20 48 -0.25 -0.23 5.69 5.57 72 -0.33 -0.30 8.22 8.14 96 -0.33 10.92 120 -0.35 13.65 144 -0.33 16.21 168 -0.34 18.69 192 -0.30 20.42 216 -0.22 21.95 240 -0.10 23.79 264 -0.04 25.13 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.63 -0.82 8.18 8.04 0.99 0.99 48 -2.42 -2.18 11.80 11.37 0.98 0.98 72 -2.42 -2.04 16.41 16.43 0.97 0.97 96 -1.64 22.17 0.95 120 -1.42 30.61 0.91 144 -1.29 40.49 0.85 168 -1.10 50.11 0.77 192 0.95 56.38 0.68 216 -3.96 60.97 0.68 240 -5.18 64.34 0.68 264 -4.20 67.16 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.11 -4.12 10.45 10.72 0.99 0.99 48 -6.92 -6.21 16.33 16.34 0.99 0.99 72 -6.66 -6.47 23.68 24.41 0.98 0.98 96 -6.13 35.67 0.96 120 -6.35 46.99 0.92 144 -7.01 65.70 0.86 168 -5.40 80.97 0.81 192 -0.20 90.64 0.74 216 -3.76 98.89 0.72 240 -6.22 106.74 0.72 264 -6.55 110.76 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.21 -5.17 14.34 14.09 0.99 0.99 48 -10.65 -9.00 23.03 22.46 0.99 0.99 72 -11.91 -11.29 33.67 33.59 0.98 0.98 96 -11.00 48.88 0.96 120 -10.17 64.95 0.92 144 -9.68 88.05 0.88 168 -7.94 107.70 0.83 192 -0.44 119.16 0.78 216 -5.47 134.47 0.75 240 -9.60 146.50 0.74 264 -10.27 152.59 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.42 1.46 1.69 0.94 0.94 48 -0.21 -0.45 1.68 1.89 0.96 0.96 72 -0.19 -0.48 2.01 2.22 0.95 0.95 96 -0.51 2.59 0.93 120 -0.52 3.08 0.90 144 -0.68 4.04 0.84 168 -0.53 4.81 0.81 192 -0.25 5.37 0.76 216 -0.16 5.95 0.72 240 -0.18 6.28 0.72 264 -0.31 6.61 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.09 0.88 0.89 0.96 0.96 48 -0.22 -0.17 1.13 1.11 0.97 0.97 72 -0.22 -0.21 1.46 1.51 0.96 0.96 96 -0.20 2.09 0.92 120 -0.20 2.56 0.89 144 -0.18 3.27 0.84 168 -0.14 3.80 0.80 192 0.09 4.01 0.77 216 0.12 4.44 0.73 240 -0.01 4.78 0.71 264 -0.08 4.89 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.16 1.06 1.10 0.94 0.95 48 0.12 0.14 1.36 1.37 0.94 0.95 72 0.01 0.04 1.77 1.71 0.93 0.94 96 0.02 2.20 0.90 120 0.15 2.57 0.87 144 0.23 3.05 0.81 168 0.17 3.36 0.77 192 0.07 3.62 0.73 216 0.10 3.87 0.70 240 0.10 4.20 0.66 264 -0.07 4.43 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.73 3.78 3.87 48 -0.75 -0.89 4.26 4.43 72 -0.82 -0.98 4.90 5.17 96 -0.95 5.98 120 -0.83 7.09 144 -0.83 8.63 168 -1.09 9.84 192 -0.89 10.65 216 -0.88 11.11 240 -1.11 11.21 264 -1.03 11.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.63 4.10 4.33 48 -0.79 -0.84 5.14 5.32 72 -1.05 -1.08 6.65 6.76 96 -1.07 8.68 120 -0.91 10.50 144 -0.87 12.90 168 -1.22 14.59 192 -1.64 15.62 216 -1.55 16.68 240 -1.12 17.49 264 -0.72 18.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.79 5.70 5.63 48 -1.16 -1.14 7.43 7.23 72 -1.57 -1.52 9.82 9.28 96 -1.59 12.18 120 -1.62 15.12 144 -1.53 18.47 168 -2.12 20.79 192 -2.67 22.23 216 -2.62 24.78 240 -1.96 26.29 264 -1.22 27.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.08 -5.00 9.78 9.76 0.98 0.98 48 -6.15 -6.00 13.90 14.03 0.98 0.98 72 -7.02 -8.07 21.53 22.17 0.95 0.95 96 -7.38 29.35 0.92 120 -7.95 39.38 0.87 144 -10.15 48.14 0.80 168 -15.97 56.23 0.76 192 -19.05 67.10 0.71 216 -21.64 78.90 0.62 240 -24.57 82.49 0.57 264 -19.62 79.48 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 56 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.11 -8.00 13.73 12.23 0.99 0.99 48 -11.56 -9.37 20.86 17.99 0.99 0.99 72 -13.03 -11.77 31.67 29.37 0.97 0.97 96 -13.18 40.59 0.95 120 -15.55 55.56 0.92 144 -19.40 70.04 0.86 168 -28.50 81.58 0.81 192 -32.87 100.76 0.76 216 -29.51 120.47 0.65 240 -29.32 138.96 0.55 264 -25.01 135.72 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 56 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.42 -8.07 17.15 13.75 0.99 0.99 48 -12.49 -9.66 25.87 22.32 0.99 0.99 72 -14.89 -12.79 40.60 39.14 0.97 0.97 96 -17.34 54.86 0.96 120 -23.86 76.05 0.92 144 -29.79 100.09 0.86 168 -41.79 115.63 0.82 192 -43.07 142.83 0.78 216 -31.64 172.02 0.66 240 -28.42 200.38 0.54 264 -26.80 199.80 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 56 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.27 1.40 1.22 0.92 0.91 48 -0.70 -0.36 1.62 1.39 0.94 0.94 72 -0.75 -0.39 1.92 1.77 0.92 0.91 96 -0.53 2.20 0.88 120 -0.54 2.52 0.87 144 -0.70 3.07 0.80 168 -0.93 3.39 0.74 192 -0.85 3.98 0.68 216 -0.41 4.72 0.59 240 -0.15 5.46 0.49 264 -0.23 5.37 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.14 0.87 0.82 0.97 0.96 48 -0.17 -0.11 1.24 1.13 0.96 0.96 72 -0.20 -0.10 1.74 1.71 0.92 0.92 96 -0.22 2.17 0.90 120 -0.44 2.79 0.85 144 -0.51 3.59 0.74 168 -0.74 3.87 0.70 192 -0.86 4.61 0.68 216 -0.54 5.20 0.58 240 -0.38 5.97 0.49 264 -0.41 6.01 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.34 1.07 1.03 0.92 0.93 48 0.24 0.24 1.36 1.25 0.89 0.91 72 0.21 0.12 1.75 1.70 0.85 0.87 96 0.04 2.08 0.81 120 -0.02 2.59 0.72 144 -0.05 2.86 0.64 168 0.01 3.05 0.59 192 0.28 3.54 0.51 216 0.59 3.62 0.51 240 0.74 3.87 0.46 264 0.58 3.88 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.46 4.23 4.06 48 -0.73 -0.47 4.96 4.59 72 -0.59 -0.46 6.17 5.70 96 -0.74 6.94 120 -1.03 8.12 144 -1.08 8.92 168 -0.93 9.80 192 -0.95 10.51 216 -0.79 11.28 240 -0.78 11.84 264 -1.16 11.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.40 4.45 4.14 48 -0.26 -0.39 5.84 5.26 72 -0.19 -0.26 7.60 7.38 96 -0.57 9.36 120 -0.76 11.42 144 -1.37 13.57 168 -1.25 15.14 192 -1.02 16.67 216 -0.63 19.02 240 -0.37 21.36 264 -0.40 21.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.56 5.24 4.64 48 -0.27 -0.62 7.06 6.39 72 -0.37 -0.54 9.71 9.47 96 -0.92 12.64 120 -1.41 15.92 144 -2.02 19.67 168 -1.62 21.73 192 -1.56 25.00 216 -0.85 28.13 240 -0.75 32.04 264 -0.05 33.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.24 1.14 12.58 9.94 0.97 0.97 48 3.72 2.30 15.38 12.76 0.97 0.97 72 2.97 1.81 17.58 15.86 0.95 0.95 96 -0.17 20.15 0.92 120 -3.19 25.70 0.89 144 -3.07 33.10 0.82 168 -1.66 38.71 0.72 192 -2.80 45.15 0.62 216 -3.62 49.66 0.54 240 -3.38 51.72 0.56 264 -1.99 55.87 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 117 12 UTC = 116 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.78 11.81 12.24 0.98 0.98 48 1.87 1.10 16.08 16.42 0.97 0.97 72 2.62 1.84 21.09 22.03 0.96 0.96 96 0.32 29.22 0.92 120 -3.00 37.45 0.89 144 -2.78 46.33 0.84 168 0.57 54.20 0.78 192 1.26 63.41 0.69 216 1.20 70.98 0.63 240 2.03 77.99 0.58 264 5.64 85.33 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 127 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.78 -1.49 18.86 19.00 0.97 0.97 48 -1.31 0.59 23.49 24.15 0.97 0.97 72 -0.28 1.96 30.56 31.18 0.96 0.96 96 0.66 39.98 0.94 120 -2.65 51.59 0.91 144 -2.26 62.96 0.86 168 0.96 73.26 0.82 192 2.56 89.60 0.74 216 2.70 100.69 0.66 240 4.66 110.90 0.60 264 10.83 122.64 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 127 12 UTC = 124 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.73 1.98 1.91 0.90 0.91 48 -0.68 -0.81 2.19 2.18 0.91 0.92 72 -0.61 -0.80 2.40 2.39 0.90 0.91 96 -0.80 2.67 0.89 120 -0.86 3.02 0.85 144 -0.85 3.41 0.79 168 -0.69 3.83 0.72 192 -0.57 4.25 0.64 216 -0.51 4.79 0.53 240 -0.49 5.09 0.52 264 -0.35 5.49 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 0.02 1.04 1.03 0.94 0.94 48 0.05 0.11 1.25 1.24 0.94 0.95 72 0.13 0.20 1.52 1.53 0.92 0.93 96 0.22 1.90 0.90 120 0.23 2.24 0.87 144 0.29 2.65 0.81 168 0.33 3.07 0.77 192 0.46 3.49 0.70 216 0.51 3.89 0.63 240 0.59 4.15 0.59 264 0.67 4.58 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 0.14 1.39 1.30 0.91 0.91 48 -0.22 0.00 1.65 1.58 0.90 0.91 72 -0.29 -0.02 1.95 1.89 0.88 0.88 96 -0.02 2.28 0.85 120 -0.01 2.60 0.80 144 -0.05 2.97 0.74 168 -0.09 3.18 0.71 192 -0.10 3.55 0.64 216 -0.17 3.71 0.61 240 -0.13 3.85 0.60 264 -0.07 4.11 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.83 3.98 3.69 48 -0.89 -0.94 4.43 4.19 72 -0.94 -0.92 4.97 4.82 96 -0.74 5.39 120 -0.73 6.04 144 -0.81 7.00 168 -0.87 7.67 192 -0.80 8.52 216 -0.71 8.90 240 -0.74 9.06 264 -0.66 9.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 132 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.32 4.50 4.45 48 -0.66 -0.39 5.45 5.43 72 -0.70 -0.42 6.45 6.54 96 -0.43 7.76 120 -0.28 9.04 144 -0.35 10.31 168 -0.57 11.23 192 -0.65 12.32 216 -0.60 12.95 240 -0.81 13.68 264 -0.77 14.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 146 12 UTC = 145 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.11 -0.69 5.73 5.68 48 -1.34 -0.93 6.99 7.11 72 -1.53 -1.07 8.32 8.50 96 -1.21 10.02 120 -1.21 11.88 144 -1.22 13.59 168 -1.48 14.98 192 -1.60 17.37 216 -1.36 18.80 240 -1.63 19.97 264 -1.79 20.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 145 12 UTC = 144 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.00 -5.59 9.47 11.42 0.96 0.97 48 -2.60 -4.62 10.89 13.34 0.96 0.97 72 -2.29 -5.33 13.29 15.89 0.95 0.97 96 -5.53 18.91 0.93 120 -4.75 22.80 0.87 144 -4.99 26.34 0.86 168 -5.33 32.53 0.87 192 -7.49 40.30 0.77 216 -7.31 46.38 0.70 240 -5.63 52.03 0.65 264 -4.29 55.58 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.83 -12.05 12.12 16.50 0.96 0.96 48 -7.94 -11.24 13.60 18.49 0.97 0.97 72 -8.10 -12.12 17.39 22.41 0.95 0.97 96 -11.22 27.59 0.94 120 -12.31 32.32 0.90 144 -13.39 37.76 0.89 168 -12.88 50.49 0.84 192 -16.07 60.22 0.83 216 -18.58 69.39 0.75 240 -16.32 78.00 0.69 264 -16.32 78.42 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.70 -10.19 11.67 16.18 0.97 0.97 48 -6.40 -10.16 15.98 20.80 0.97 0.97 72 -8.05 -12.16 23.14 27.74 0.96 0.96 96 -11.13 35.98 0.94 120 -15.24 44.57 0.91 144 -17.13 52.67 0.88 168 -16.63 71.27 0.80 192 -19.05 84.42 0.81 216 -25.43 96.52 0.74 240 -23.23 105.18 0.71 264 -25.71 110.35 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.78 1.40 1.41 0.86 0.87 48 -0.82 -0.85 1.54 1.59 0.88 0.89 72 -0.86 -0.85 1.73 1.73 0.89 0.91 96 -0.82 1.89 0.87 120 -0.87 2.02 0.84 144 -0.85 2.21 0.84 168 -0.84 2.93 0.76 192 -1.02 3.07 0.79 216 -1.35 3.49 0.74 240 -1.11 3.67 0.70 264 -1.27 4.25 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.21 0.87 0.93 0.86 0.86 48 0.24 0.23 0.94 1.06 0.88 0.86 72 0.23 0.19 1.11 1.22 0.88 0.84 96 0.31 1.44 0.85 120 0.12 1.67 0.79 144 0.06 1.87 0.74 168 0.08 2.25 0.70 192 0.08 2.44 0.70 216 0.01 2.73 0.62 240 -0.01 2.74 0.62 264 -0.13 2.94 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.02 0.85 0.82 0.88 0.85 48 -0.13 -0.16 1.01 1.01 0.86 0.84 72 -0.22 -0.25 1.21 1.19 0.86 0.84 96 -0.32 1.39 0.81 120 -0.45 1.59 0.75 144 -0.45 1.73 0.78 168 -0.43 1.92 0.69 192 -0.34 2.28 0.63 216 -0.43 2.52 0.50 240 -0.40 2.65 0.52 264 -0.62 2.86 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.67 3.89 4.01 48 -0.54 -0.62 4.26 4.52 72 -0.65 -0.59 4.76 4.88 96 -0.76 5.35 120 -0.68 6.17 144 -0.88 6.52 168 -0.62 7.83 192 -0.33 8.60 216 -0.32 8.99 240 -0.66 9.57 264 -0.63 9.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.61 3.97 4.32 48 -0.75 -0.80 4.58 5.20 72 -0.83 -0.84 5.29 6.10 96 -0.75 6.78 120 -0.60 7.65 144 -0.32 8.96 168 -0.37 10.72 192 -0.38 11.87 216 -0.51 12.76 240 -0.78 13.89 264 -0.36 14.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.80 5.32 5.76 48 -0.96 -0.96 6.40 7.18 72 -1.05 -1.14 7.97 9.05 96 -1.11 10.43 120 -1.04 12.69 144 -0.88 13.77 168 -1.09 15.99 192 -0.72 17.97 216 -1.14 19.66 240 -1.47 21.84 264 -0.50 23.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.10 -2.17 9.49 8.71 0.69 0.68 48 -3.68 -2.25 10.02 9.14 0.79 0.77 72 -4.48 -3.06 10.66 9.63 0.81 0.81 96 -3.99 10.18 0.80 120 -5.10 10.96 0.78 144 -5.57 11.48 0.76 168 -5.55 12.38 0.74 192 -5.68 13.06 0.73 216 -5.34 13.28 0.72 240 -4.72 13.44 0.68 264 -4.31 13.49 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.56 -5.38 11.74 10.92 0.57 0.60 48 -5.82 -5.35 12.16 11.45 0.71 0.73 72 -6.69 -6.20 12.97 12.19 0.74 0.76 96 -7.35 12.80 0.77 120 -8.67 13.72 0.75 144 -9.14 14.34 0.74 168 -9.30 15.09 0.72 192 -9.72 15.69 0.73 216 -9.83 16.27 0.71 240 -9.62 16.48 0.69 264 -9.43 16.73 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.37 -6.78 13.18 12.44 0.67 0.68 48 -8.28 -8.57 14.64 14.36 0.77 0.79 72 -10.17 -10.53 16.45 16.18 0.79 0.81 96 -12.13 17.71 0.81 120 -13.82 19.45 0.80 144 -14.65 20.38 0.81 168 -15.36 21.95 0.79 192 -16.34 23.36 0.80 216 -17.19 24.98 0.77 240 -17.74 26.33 0.74 264 -18.27 26.85 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.51 1.08 1.06 0.45 0.44 48 -0.45 -0.54 1.12 1.10 0.52 0.51 72 -0.43 -0.52 1.13 1.12 0.56 0.54 96 -0.49 1.13 0.57 120 -0.47 1.14 0.57 144 -0.46 1.16 0.57 168 -0.43 1.18 0.57 192 -0.44 1.23 0.56 216 -0.44 1.26 0.55 240 -0.47 1.25 0.56 264 -0.49 1.28 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.13 0.78 0.76 0.56 0.55 48 0.19 0.13 0.82 0.79 0.65 0.63 72 0.22 0.14 0.86 0.82 0.67 0.66 96 0.12 0.86 0.66 120 0.11 0.89 0.66 144 0.08 0.95 0.63 168 0.04 0.98 0.64 192 0.03 1.02 0.66 216 0.01 1.06 0.65 240 -0.01 1.09 0.61 264 -0.03 1.08 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.31 0.65 0.64 0.65 0.65 48 -0.45 -0.50 0.80 0.79 0.68 0.69 72 -0.53 -0.58 0.89 0.88 0.68 0.71 96 -0.61 0.92 0.71 120 -0.63 0.97 0.68 144 -0.65 1.01 0.70 168 -0.67 1.07 0.67 192 -0.69 1.11 0.65 216 -0.71 1.16 0.65 240 -0.73 1.21 0.63 264 -0.78 1.26 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.49 3.25 3.35 48 -0.45 -0.45 3.56 3.66 72 -0.44 -0.40 3.83 3.89 96 -0.42 4.13 120 -0.46 4.36 144 -0.44 4.60 168 -0.44 4.85 192 -0.40 5.12 216 -0.32 5.28 240 -0.28 5.44 264 -0.29 5.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.91 -0.90 3.73 3.65 48 -0.97 -1.00 4.12 4.01 72 -0.93 -0.97 4.42 4.34 96 -0.92 4.66 120 -0.94 4.88 144 -0.98 5.14 168 -1.06 5.51 192 -1.09 5.88 216 -1.04 6.13 240 -1.07 6.40 264 -1.07 6.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -1.00 4.52 4.58 48 -1.09 -1.16 5.24 5.29 72 -1.29 -1.33 6.02 5.85 96 -1.60 6.41 120 -1.72 6.92 144 -1.88 7.37 168 -1.84 7.88 192 -1.95 8.59 216 -1.93 9.04 240 -2.07 9.60 264 -2.20 9.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.52 -1.54 10.92 9.99 0.98 0.98 48 -1.40 -1.77 14.54 13.61 0.98 0.98 72 -1.78 -2.19 19.51 18.96 0.97 0.97 96 -2.51 25.82 0.94 120 -3.55 34.17 0.90 144 -4.21 43.41 0.85 168 -4.56 52.36 0.80 192 -4.46 59.91 0.74 216 -5.88 65.33 0.70 240 -5.83 69.81 0.66 264 -3.91 72.19 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 372 12 UTC = 367 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.13 -3.67 12.60 12.40 0.99 0.99 48 -4.25 -4.00 18.20 17.65 0.98 0.99 72 -4.36 -4.37 26.35 26.29 0.97 0.97 96 -5.06 37.46 0.95 120 -6.34 49.51 0.91 144 -7.90 63.00 0.87 168 -7.30 75.72 0.83 192 -6.18 87.18 0.78 216 -6.03 97.60 0.73 240 -4.72 108.06 0.67 264 -2.16 111.49 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 386 12 UTC = 381 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.10 -4.67 18.31 17.70 0.99 0.99 48 -6.94 -5.67 24.71 24.04 0.99 0.99 72 -7.84 -6.72 35.63 35.36 0.98 0.97 96 -8.24 50.17 0.95 120 -10.22 66.41 0.92 144 -12.01 84.95 0.88 168 -11.38 102.55 0.84 192 -9.14 119.01 0.80 216 -8.04 134.91 0.74 240 -6.35 150.66 0.68 264 -3.18 155.87 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 386 12 UTC = 379 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.44 1.64 1.63 0.93 0.93 48 -0.49 -0.50 1.85 1.86 0.95 0.95 72 -0.47 -0.52 2.13 2.16 0.94 0.94 96 -0.54 2.53 0.92 120 -0.54 3.00 0.89 144 -0.60 3.58 0.83 168 -0.56 4.13 0.78 192 -0.45 4.67 0.72 216 -0.34 5.17 0.66 240 -0.24 5.50 0.63 264 -0.19 5.77 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.05 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.96 48 -0.08 -0.05 1.22 1.19 0.96 0.96 72 -0.07 -0.04 1.60 1.63 0.94 0.94 96 -0.06 2.15 0.91 120 -0.09 2.63 0.87 144 -0.11 3.21 0.82 168 -0.09 3.70 0.77 192 -0.01 4.10 0.73 216 0.06 4.55 0.66 240 0.13 4.93 0.62 264 0.15 5.11 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 431 12 UTC = 420 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.17 1.22 1.20 0.93 0.93 48 0.01 0.08 1.51 1.47 0.93 0.93 72 -0.07 0.02 1.88 1.87 0.90 0.90 96 0.00 2.34 0.86 120 -0.01 2.75 0.82 144 0.02 3.13 0.77 168 -0.02 3.42 0.72 192 0.00 3.72 0.68 216 0.00 3.94 0.64 240 0.01 4.12 0.61 264 -0.02 4.30 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 428 12 UTC = 417 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.70 3.97 3.83 48 -0.80 -0.79 4.50 4.38 72 -0.83 -0.83 5.33 5.23 96 -0.82 6.14 120 -0.83 7.23 144 -0.87 8.24 168 -0.87 9.20 192 -0.75 9.98 216 -0.70 10.38 240 -0.73 10.68 264 -0.75 10.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 384 12 UTC = 376 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.53 4.36 4.34 48 -0.67 -0.61 5.48 5.44 72 -0.74 -0.68 6.99 7.06 96 -0.79 8.82 120 -0.75 10.59 144 -0.84 12.35 168 -0.93 13.79 192 -1.00 14.93 216 -0.91 16.04 240 -0.85 16.97 264 -0.76 17.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 413 12 UTC = 405 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.61 5.31 5.19 48 -0.91 -0.79 6.79 6.68 72 -1.07 -0.89 8.82 8.75 96 -1.09 11.38 120 -1.14 14.12 144 -1.20 16.78 168 -1.33 18.84 192 -1.53 20.92 216 -1.32 22.99 240 -1.30 24.66 264 -1.14 25.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 411 12 UTC = 403 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.28 -2.17 8.13 8.21 0.98 0.98 48 -2.41 -2.57 10.04 11.13 0.98 0.98 72 -2.27 -2.52 13.45 14.82 0.97 0.97 96 -2.82 18.65 0.95 120 -4.10 25.31 0.89 144 -4.18 31.48 0.87 168 -5.87 36.71 0.84 192 -6.41 43.45 0.78 216 -4.44 46.71 0.75 240 -2.92 50.44 0.68 264 -2.65 52.93 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.94 -8.48 12.15 13.21 0.98 0.98 48 -8.08 -9.17 14.75 16.71 0.98 0.98 72 -7.82 -8.60 19.38 22.09 0.96 0.97 96 -8.14 26.76 0.95 120 -10.95 36.25 0.90 144 -11.13 45.44 0.87 168 -12.51 54.66 0.84 192 -13.65 64.14 0.78 216 -12.93 69.98 0.76 240 -10.66 75.45 0.71 264 -11.23 78.34 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.35 -6.39 13.98 15.79 0.98 0.98 48 -7.15 -8.40 19.09 22.28 0.98 0.98 72 -7.74 -8.48 26.56 30.95 0.97 0.97 96 -7.51 38.06 0.95 120 -11.84 50.13 0.92 144 -13.75 64.88 0.88 168 -14.54 81.20 0.83 192 -17.72 90.51 0.79 216 -18.74 100.52 0.77 240 -15.92 106.42 0.72 264 -16.17 116.60 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.81 1.61 1.66 0.88 0.89 48 -0.82 -0.82 1.75 1.79 0.91 0.91 72 -0.83 -0.84 1.91 1.94 0.91 0.91 96 -0.82 2.12 0.89 120 -0.87 2.39 0.86 144 -0.92 2.74 0.84 168 -0.88 3.25 0.78 192 -1.03 3.50 0.76 216 -1.18 3.76 0.72 240 -0.98 3.98 0.67 264 -1.00 4.26 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.14 0.90 0.95 0.91 0.91 48 0.21 0.14 1.03 1.12 0.93 0.93 72 0.23 0.16 1.28 1.41 0.92 0.92 96 0.21 1.67 0.88 120 0.07 1.97 0.82 144 -0.01 2.27 0.80 168 0.08 2.68 0.75 192 0.02 2.90 0.72 216 -0.10 3.17 0.67 240 -0.10 3.22 0.65 264 -0.16 3.59 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 46 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.11 0.98 0.97 0.91 0.91 48 -0.17 -0.25 1.20 1.24 0.91 0.91 72 -0.26 -0.33 1.47 1.52 0.90 0.90 96 -0.33 1.82 0.86 120 -0.34 2.12 0.80 144 -0.42 2.36 0.79 168 -0.49 2.61 0.77 192 -0.53 2.99 0.71 216 -0.52 3.25 0.68 240 -0.53 3.20 0.69 264 -0.47 3.36 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.86 4.39 4.20 48 -0.65 -0.86 4.71 4.51 72 -0.71 -0.84 5.13 4.97 96 -0.78 5.52 120 -0.83 6.41 144 -0.97 6.96 168 -0.79 8.00 192 -0.73 8.58 216 -0.73 8.96 240 -1.00 9.16 264 -0.76 9.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.51 4.10 4.33 48 -0.66 -0.47 4.82 5.15 72 -0.65 -0.52 5.54 6.19 96 -0.63 7.26 120 -0.67 8.40 144 -0.53 9.65 168 -0.55 11.13 192 -0.31 12.18 216 -0.62 12.92 240 -1.07 13.30 264 -0.64 14.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.62 5.23 5.56 48 -0.63 -0.49 6.38 6.73 72 -0.58 -0.48 8.10 8.49 96 -0.56 10.23 120 -0.73 12.80 144 -0.47 15.06 168 -0.69 17.53 192 -0.21 18.90 216 -0.72 20.08 240 -0.97 21.30 264 -0.33 22.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 45 ---------------------------------------------------------