VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY APRIL 2019 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.08 0.81 0.83 0.99 0.99 16.7 17.0 48 -0.09 -0.14 1.46 1.49 0.98 0.98 25.9 26.4 72 -0.12 -0.16 2.26 2.30 0.96 0.96 34.8 35.4 96 -0.16 3.28 0.91 44.7 120 -0.14 4.37 0.84 53.6 144 -0.16 5.54 0.74 61.8 168 -0.15 6.77 0.62 69.0 192 -0.14 7.72 0.52 73.8 216 -0.09 8.32 0.45 77.6 240 -0.18 8.85 0.39 80.0 264 -0.30 9.17 0.33 81.2 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.46 6.26 6.40 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.7 48 -0.48 -0.86 12.99 13.39 0.99 0.99 17.5 17.8 72 -0.69 -1.11 21.67 22.73 0.97 0.97 25.7 26.4 96 -1.15 33.36 0.94 34.7 120 -1.19 45.33 0.88 42.3 144 -1.56 59.49 0.79 50.1 168 -1.67 73.82 0.68 56.6 192 -2.00 86.28 0.56 61.8 216 -2.01 95.75 0.45 65.9 240 -2.98 103.24 0.37 68.7 264 -4.37 109.06 0.30 70.6 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.94 8.56 8.95 1.00 1.00 8.2 8.4 48 -1.96 -2.28 17.26 17.81 0.99 0.99 14.2 14.5 72 -3.41 -3.69 27.87 29.38 0.98 0.97 20.6 21.2 96 -4.65 43.07 0.95 28.4 120 -5.45 59.83 0.89 35.4 144 -6.52 78.16 0.82 42.5 168 -7.23 98.13 0.71 49.0 192 -7.54 116.48 0.59 54.2 216 -7.42 129.82 0.49 58.1 240 -7.72 140.96 0.41 61.1 264 -8.62 150.68 0.33 63.4 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.05 0.46 0.46 0.99 0.99 48 0.05 0.05 0.83 0.84 0.98 0.98 72 0.03 0.04 1.24 1.28 0.94 0.94 96 0.02 1.75 0.89 120 0.01 2.27 0.82 144 -0.02 2.80 0.72 168 -0.04 3.35 0.60 192 -0.06 3.84 0.48 216 -0.05 4.17 0.39 240 -0.04 4.41 0.33 264 -0.04 4.60 0.27 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.12 0.66 0.65 0.98 0.98 48 -0.24 -0.23 1.09 1.10 0.96 0.96 72 -0.33 -0.31 1.53 1.57 0.91 0.91 96 -0.38 2.03 0.84 120 -0.42 2.48 0.76 144 -0.45 2.94 0.66 168 -0.49 3.30 0.57 192 -0.49 3.60 0.49 216 -0.50 3.85 0.42 240 -0.46 4.00 0.38 264 -0.42 4.09 0.35 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 2.11 2.12 48 -0.14 -0.15 3.79 3.83 72 -0.23 -0.23 5.50 5.64 96 -0.29 7.49 120 -0.36 9.24 144 -0.42 11.07 168 -0.49 12.65 192 -0.52 14.02 216 -0.54 15.07 240 -0.48 15.82 264 -0.40 16.37 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.14 3.32 3.34 48 -0.31 -0.25 5.42 5.45 72 -0.45 -0.34 7.56 7.72 96 -0.44 10.26 120 -0.51 12.94 144 -0.61 15.45 168 -0.69 18.04 192 -0.71 20.18 216 -0.78 21.81 240 -0.77 23.23 264 -0.70 24.26 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.19 2.90 2.85 0.97 0.97 25.1 25.2 48 -0.02 0.16 3.81 4.07 0.95 0.94 31.8 31.7 72 -0.34 -0.11 4.62 4.98 0.93 0.92 36.2 36.1 96 -0.42 5.40 0.91 39.3 120 -0.72 6.02 0.88 42.3 144 -1.09 6.76 0.85 44.8 168 -1.50 7.73 0.82 47.6 192 -1.98 8.89 0.78 50.2 216 -2.42 9.83 0.72 52.7 240 -2.39 10.53 0.67 54.9 264 -1.77 10.94 0.64 56.5 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.31 -1.36 4.26 4.26 0.99 0.99 17.4 17.5 48 -4.31 -4.46 7.47 7.68 0.97 0.97 23.9 23.9 72 -7.06 -7.18 10.73 11.04 0.95 0.94 28.6 28.8 96 -9.52 14.10 0.91 33.2 120 -11.57 17.00 0.87 37.1 144 -13.47 19.53 0.83 40.7 168 -15.31 22.44 0.76 44.6 192 -16.99 25.13 0.70 48.2 216 -18.68 27.48 0.64 50.9 240 -20.12 29.29 0.61 53.2 264 -20.82 30.98 0.55 55.5 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.10 0.38 0.39 0.96 0.97 48 -0.13 -0.12 0.57 0.58 0.91 0.93 72 -0.15 -0.14 0.70 0.70 0.86 0.89 96 -0.15 0.80 0.86 120 -0.15 0.88 0.83 144 -0.15 0.97 0.79 168 -0.15 1.05 0.76 192 -0.16 1.14 0.72 216 -0.18 1.21 0.69 240 -0.19 1.28 0.65 264 -0.22 1.38 0.60 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.33 0.45 0.47 0.94 0.94 48 -0.52 -0.56 0.71 0.73 0.87 0.88 72 -0.66 -0.71 0.87 0.90 0.81 0.83 96 -0.81 1.02 0.76 120 -0.89 1.13 0.70 144 -0.95 1.22 0.65 168 -1.01 1.29 0.60 192 -1.05 1.36 0.55 216 -1.10 1.41 0.52 240 -1.15 1.47 0.49 264 -1.20 1.52 0.45 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.17 1.28 1.28 48 -0.28 -0.26 1.84 1.83 72 -0.33 -0.31 2.25 2.22 96 -0.33 2.53 120 -0.35 2.82 144 -0.39 3.09 168 -0.38 3.36 192 -0.36 3.66 216 -0.37 3.92 240 -0.36 4.16 264 -0.33 4.38 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.33 2.77 2.81 48 -0.47 -0.55 4.11 4.15 72 -0.61 -0.69 5.13 5.19 96 -0.80 6.11 120 -0.86 6.94 144 -0.92 7.79 168 -0.92 8.63 192 -0.93 9.38 216 -0.95 9.93 240 -0.94 10.47 264 -0.93 10.89 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.90 0.89 1.00 1.00 12.0 12.0 48 0.05 0.06 1.77 1.81 0.98 0.98 21.3 21.4 72 0.08 0.08 2.82 2.83 0.96 0.95 29.9 29.9 96 0.08 3.98 0.91 37.8 120 0.11 5.24 0.84 45.0 144 0.15 6.44 0.76 51.1 168 0.18 7.37 0.68 56.1 192 0.20 8.40 0.58 60.3 216 0.22 9.47 0.48 64.1 240 0.31 10.05 0.43 66.4 264 0.35 10.46 0.39 67.9 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.17 7.70 7.64 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.5 48 -0.04 0.02 16.20 16.52 0.99 0.99 17.5 17.6 72 -0.08 0.03 26.66 26.85 0.97 0.96 25.4 25.3 96 -0.10 38.44 0.93 32.7 120 -0.29 52.17 0.86 39.9 144 -0.26 65.60 0.79 46.4 168 -0.23 76.69 0.70 51.7 192 -0.31 88.56 0.60 56.4 216 -0.37 100.85 0.50 60.8 240 -0.06 109.38 0.42 63.4 264 -0.11 117.22 0.34 65.6 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.56 10.27 10.25 1.00 1.00 8.2 8.3 48 -1.81 -1.94 21.32 21.52 0.99 0.99 14.8 14.7 72 -3.23 -3.29 35.03 35.49 0.97 0.97 21.6 21.6 96 -4.72 50.94 0.93 28.2 120 -6.13 69.59 0.87 35.1 144 -7.37 87.65 0.80 41.2 168 -8.47 103.71 0.71 46.6 192 -9.62 120.92 0.61 51.6 216 -9.71 137.30 0.51 56.1 240 -9.26 152.32 0.41 59.3 264 -8.76 163.43 0.33 61.5 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.50 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 -0.01 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.96 72 -0.04 -0.04 1.44 1.44 0.92 0.92 96 -0.07 1.95 0.86 120 -0.10 2.48 0.77 144 -0.14 2.92 0.68 168 -0.17 3.31 0.58 192 -0.21 3.68 0.48 216 -0.24 4.04 0.39 240 -0.25 4.39 0.30 264 -0.25 4.61 0.24 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.11 0.62 0.61 0.98 0.98 48 -0.21 -0.22 1.10 1.12 0.94 0.94 72 -0.31 -0.33 1.62 1.60 0.88 0.88 96 -0.41 2.09 0.80 120 -0.49 2.56 0.70 144 -0.58 2.89 0.62 168 -0.68 3.23 0.52 192 -0.75 3.53 0.43 216 -0.71 3.75 0.34 240 -0.68 3.85 0.30 264 -0.66 3.99 0.25 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 2.26 2.27 48 -0.15 -0.15 4.22 4.27 72 -0.21 -0.22 6.14 6.12 96 -0.30 7.95 120 -0.32 9.84 144 -0.35 11.53 168 -0.40 13.04 192 -0.40 14.42 216 -0.34 15.71 240 -0.26 16.58 264 -0.21 17.44 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.08 3.32 3.31 48 -0.20 -0.18 5.91 5.88 72 -0.28 -0.31 8.52 8.49 96 -0.38 11.12 120 -0.43 13.92 144 -0.52 16.37 168 -0.64 18.91 192 -0.67 21.28 216 -0.43 23.51 240 -0.26 25.12 264 -0.20 26.58 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.01 -0.30 8.51 8.75 0.99 0.99 48 -2.31 -1.68 11.87 12.73 0.98 0.98 72 -1.56 -0.73 17.30 18.17 0.97 0.97 96 2.25 25.44 0.94 120 5.50 33.87 0.88 144 5.48 43.24 0.76 168 5.41 54.81 0.68 192 10.65 61.77 0.65 216 17.80 64.06 0.65 240 13.13 65.30 0.67 264 8.14 64.29 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.50 -3.99 10.76 11.08 0.99 0.99 48 -5.66 -5.48 15.88 17.11 0.99 0.99 72 -4.28 -4.44 22.76 23.80 0.98 0.98 96 -1.08 33.03 0.95 120 3.34 44.57 0.91 144 1.98 59.17 0.80 168 0.83 73.54 0.76 192 6.80 90.37 0.70 216 12.90 93.23 0.71 240 6.83 93.12 0.70 264 2.15 95.23 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.51 -5.35 14.72 14.58 0.99 0.99 48 -8.82 -8.14 23.15 22.94 0.99 0.99 72 -8.40 -8.60 33.44 33.13 0.98 0.98 96 -6.03 46.83 0.96 120 -1.63 63.44 0.91 144 -4.14 82.86 0.82 168 -9.08 105.64 0.78 192 -3.44 131.63 0.72 216 3.98 135.50 0.73 240 0.26 135.69 0.70 264 -1.88 139.36 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.48 1.37 1.61 0.94 0.94 48 -0.22 -0.42 1.59 1.84 0.95 0.95 72 -0.10 -0.37 1.90 2.15 0.95 0.94 96 -0.33 2.66 0.92 120 -0.24 3.22 0.86 144 -0.36 3.77 0.78 168 -0.45 4.42 0.77 192 -0.16 5.24 0.71 216 -0.25 5.49 0.70 240 -0.42 5.59 0.68 264 -0.44 5.89 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.01 0.88 0.92 0.95 0.95 48 -0.07 -0.03 1.11 1.12 0.96 0.96 72 -0.06 -0.05 1.43 1.51 0.94 0.94 96 -0.07 1.98 0.91 120 -0.05 2.48 0.85 144 -0.13 2.96 0.78 168 -0.28 3.61 0.74 192 -0.25 4.25 0.67 216 -0.24 4.35 0.67 240 -0.20 4.34 0.66 264 -0.04 4.45 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.10 1.07 1.09 0.93 0.93 48 -0.06 0.01 1.29 1.33 0.93 0.93 72 -0.14 -0.07 1.58 1.60 0.90 0.89 96 -0.14 1.98 0.85 120 -0.15 2.35 0.80 144 -0.19 2.81 0.69 168 -0.34 3.00 0.68 192 -0.53 3.29 0.64 216 -0.55 3.31 0.63 240 -0.44 3.47 0.65 264 -0.45 3.47 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -1.01 3.93 4.23 48 -0.80 -1.16 4.48 4.83 72 -0.96 -1.38 5.34 5.83 96 -1.50 7.08 120 -1.49 8.19 144 -1.62 9.63 168 -1.65 11.37 192 -1.86 12.44 216 -1.99 12.34 240 -1.98 12.10 264 -1.54 12.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.69 4.55 4.43 48 -0.97 -0.95 5.60 5.60 72 -1.19 -1.23 6.80 7.01 96 -1.43 8.62 120 -1.63 10.46 144 -1.87 12.67 168 -2.04 14.60 192 -2.55 16.36 216 -2.87 16.77 240 -2.64 16.95 264 -2.07 17.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.86 6.03 5.87 48 -1.08 -1.24 7.68 7.46 72 -1.36 -1.50 9.68 9.61 96 -1.59 12.20 120 -1.88 15.23 144 -2.20 18.16 168 -2.67 22.17 192 -2.98 24.43 216 -3.38 25.02 240 -3.20 25.80 264 -2.96 26.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.28 -4.66 9.09 8.52 0.97 0.97 48 -7.17 -6.98 12.57 12.39 0.98 0.97 72 -7.46 -7.95 16.51 17.12 0.97 0.96 96 -10.15 23.47 0.95 120 -13.87 32.14 0.92 144 -16.34 43.04 0.85 168 -16.16 52.84 0.80 192 -13.26 61.89 0.72 216 -12.74 70.42 0.66 240 -13.43 80.82 0.62 264 -7.92 81.46 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 55 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.08 -5.63 11.64 10.71 0.98 0.98 48 -8.93 -8.29 16.65 16.39 0.98 0.98 72 -9.82 -9.60 22.71 23.84 0.98 0.97 96 -12.82 34.95 0.95 120 -16.81 45.64 0.93 144 -20.57 65.29 0.86 168 -20.97 80.85 0.80 192 -19.85 94.81 0.72 216 -16.30 105.47 0.65 240 -11.33 115.27 0.59 264 -8.50 117.51 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 54 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.96 -6.15 12.32 13.36 0.99 0.98 48 -8.51 -8.68 18.34 19.46 0.99 0.98 72 -9.91 -10.00 25.80 29.06 0.98 0.97 96 -13.73 42.28 0.96 120 -17.81 56.33 0.94 144 -21.06 80.63 0.88 168 -21.13 101.20 0.82 192 -18.55 119.95 0.74 216 -14.62 137.46 0.67 240 -5.34 150.17 0.62 264 -4.10 155.03 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 55 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 0.08 1.21 1.17 0.89 0.89 48 -0.34 0.02 1.38 1.32 0.92 0.92 72 -0.42 -0.06 1.65 1.58 0.92 0.91 96 -0.22 2.05 0.89 120 -0.29 2.49 0.86 144 -0.36 2.79 0.84 168 -0.38 3.44 0.78 192 -0.46 4.01 0.73 216 -0.29 4.29 0.67 240 0.01 4.62 0.61 264 0.02 4.79 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.05 0.68 0.71 0.95 0.94 48 -0.04 -0.08 0.90 0.93 0.95 0.95 72 -0.07 -0.06 1.18 1.27 0.94 0.92 96 -0.09 1.77 0.91 120 -0.05 2.10 0.87 144 -0.09 2.70 0.81 168 -0.08 3.21 0.75 192 -0.10 3.79 0.68 216 0.10 4.11 0.64 240 0.43 4.22 0.63 264 0.21 4.41 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.27 1.07 1.13 0.93 0.92 48 0.30 0.36 1.33 1.47 0.93 0.91 72 0.31 0.33 1.70 1.88 0.90 0.87 96 0.27 2.41 0.81 120 0.32 2.77 0.73 144 0.46 3.45 0.64 168 0.34 3.80 0.56 192 0.20 4.06 0.52 216 0.05 4.27 0.46 240 -0.02 4.27 0.48 264 0.12 4.28 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.43 3.87 3.68 48 -0.75 -0.49 4.30 4.03 72 -0.81 -0.54 4.88 4.71 96 -0.52 5.45 120 -0.54 6.48 144 -0.42 7.74 168 -0.27 8.82 192 -0.54 9.76 216 -0.57 10.13 240 -0.19 10.90 264 -0.64 10.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.75 3.95 3.92 48 -0.71 -0.64 4.96 4.91 72 -0.68 -0.81 6.36 6.44 96 -0.88 8.51 120 -0.92 10.08 144 -0.58 12.82 168 -0.28 14.95 192 -0.10 16.53 216 -0.31 16.94 240 0.02 18.25 264 0.34 18.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.63 4.70 4.75 48 -0.68 -0.55 6.10 6.11 72 -0.55 -0.65 7.75 8.22 96 -1.01 10.81 120 -1.05 13.80 144 -0.43 17.44 168 0.07 20.74 192 0.42 23.37 216 -0.16 24.47 240 0.52 25.88 264 1.03 26.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.27 1.97 12.24 10.98 0.97 0.97 48 1.22 1.76 14.81 13.63 0.97 0.97 72 -0.02 1.02 18.64 16.67 0.95 0.95 96 -0.48 21.92 0.91 120 -1.94 28.19 0.86 144 -3.76 35.14 0.81 168 -3.54 40.48 0.72 192 -3.13 44.72 0.65 216 -3.58 50.53 0.58 240 -4.97 58.62 0.49 264 -6.12 56.73 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 115 12 UTC = 114 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.98 -0.08 11.87 12.30 0.97 0.97 48 -0.26 0.06 15.81 16.67 0.97 0.97 72 -1.20 0.19 22.63 22.96 0.95 0.95 96 -0.40 29.44 0.93 120 -0.53 38.08 0.88 144 -1.10 46.21 0.86 168 -0.07 57.25 0.78 192 1.32 67.01 0.70 216 2.39 74.62 0.64 240 0.29 86.33 0.58 264 -2.59 91.85 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 124 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.16 -3.16 19.67 20.23 0.97 0.97 48 -6.36 -3.72 25.54 26.78 0.97 0.97 72 -7.01 -2.53 32.78 34.31 0.96 0.95 96 -1.50 43.23 0.94 120 0.37 55.45 0.91 144 0.95 65.75 0.88 168 0.37 78.47 0.83 192 2.08 96.22 0.75 216 5.32 109.52 0.67 240 7.87 126.74 0.62 264 4.53 137.11 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 123 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.72 1.89 1.94 0.90 0.90 48 -0.59 -0.73 2.18 2.25 0.92 0.92 72 -0.60 -0.77 2.51 2.59 0.90 0.91 96 -0.77 2.95 0.88 120 -0.77 3.36 0.86 144 -0.66 3.78 0.82 168 -0.50 4.28 0.76 192 -0.28 4.84 0.69 216 -0.15 5.44 0.59 240 -0.22 5.75 0.54 264 -0.40 6.03 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 134 12 UTC = 133 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 0.01 1.02 1.01 0.94 0.94 48 -0.05 0.01 1.24 1.24 0.95 0.95 72 0.00 0.07 1.53 1.52 0.93 0.93 96 0.17 1.89 0.90 120 0.24 2.33 0.87 144 0.31 2.80 0.82 168 0.23 3.22 0.77 192 0.26 3.70 0.71 216 0.31 4.24 0.62 240 0.33 4.56 0.57 264 0.29 4.80 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.05 1.25 1.21 0.91 0.91 48 -0.27 -0.13 1.55 1.49 0.91 0.91 72 -0.31 -0.10 1.87 1.78 0.89 0.89 96 -0.04 2.12 0.86 120 0.08 2.50 0.82 144 0.08 2.77 0.78 168 0.12 3.06 0.71 192 0.16 3.28 0.67 216 0.26 3.62 0.60 240 0.59 3.89 0.58 264 0.65 4.04 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 149 12 UTC = 148 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.85 4.08 3.95 48 -0.87 -0.80 4.52 4.43 72 -0.83 -0.76 5.21 5.04 96 -0.73 5.97 120 -0.65 6.92 144 -0.64 7.65 168 -0.79 8.41 192 -0.64 8.76 216 -0.52 9.74 240 -0.27 10.47 264 -0.18 10.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.35 4.35 4.47 48 -0.55 -0.45 5.45 5.58 72 -0.54 -0.47 6.67 6.80 96 -0.44 7.98 120 -0.35 9.35 144 -0.36 10.42 168 -0.48 11.43 192 -0.35 12.37 216 -0.31 13.75 240 0.06 14.70 264 0.14 14.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 146 12 UTC = 145 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -0.55 6.34 6.54 48 -1.12 -0.81 8.13 8.24 72 -1.22 -0.87 9.74 9.77 96 -1.00 11.48 120 -0.92 13.25 144 -0.85 14.93 168 -0.92 16.12 192 -0.70 18.26 216 -0.64 20.32 240 -0.23 21.87 264 -0.20 22.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 143 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.80 -4.57 8.33 9.62 0.91 0.98 48 -1.26 -3.04 9.33 10.51 0.97 0.94 72 -0.89 -2.32 11.82 13.95 0.97 0.97 96 -2.28 16.47 0.96 120 -3.63 24.41 0.86 144 -1.68 28.89 0.84 168 -1.05 35.25 0.81 192 -3.78 39.95 0.77 216 -5.58 43.67 0.78 240 -4.70 46.38 0.71 264 -3.98 49.11 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.37 -10.50 11.24 14.63 0.99 0.98 48 -6.93 -9.91 14.25 17.37 0.98 0.98 72 -7.33 -9.54 17.84 23.18 0.98 0.97 96 -8.41 27.42 0.96 120 -11.24 37.12 0.82 144 -10.17 44.72 0.86 168 -11.86 53.46 0.83 192 -15.70 64.35 0.75 216 -15.44 72.38 0.69 240 -10.39 75.07 0.68 264 -6.55 78.75 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.15 -10.19 12.35 15.59 0.99 0.98 48 -7.40 -10.91 17.34 20.70 0.99 0.99 72 -9.28 -11.74 25.60 30.45 0.98 0.97 96 -11.65 39.20 0.93 120 -16.98 54.16 0.82 144 -15.95 61.66 0.84 168 -20.00 76.04 0.81 192 -22.00 94.30 0.71 216 -22.00 103.63 0.68 240 -11.98 113.04 0.60 264 -4.57 123.20 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.59 1.19 1.22 0.89 0.88 48 -0.55 -0.61 1.32 1.29 0.91 0.89 72 -0.55 -0.61 1.41 1.54 0.89 0.89 96 -0.58 1.74 0.90 120 -0.64 2.05 0.86 144 -0.77 2.15 0.83 168 -0.84 2.59 0.81 192 -0.84 3.00 0.66 216 -0.73 3.36 0.63 240 -0.44 3.51 0.61 264 -0.22 3.92 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 -0.02 0.78 0.77 0.87 0.91 48 0.02 -0.07 0.94 1.01 0.93 0.93 72 -0.02 -0.10 1.10 1.21 0.92 0.89 96 -0.01 1.39 0.89 120 -0.17 1.72 0.81 144 -0.21 1.99 0.78 168 -0.35 2.19 0.77 192 -0.31 2.56 0.61 216 -0.27 2.83 0.56 240 -0.09 3.13 0.53 264 0.07 3.23 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 48 -0.11 -0.11 1.12 1.14 0.91 0.89 72 -0.21 -0.29 1.32 1.41 0.88 0.86 96 -0.38 1.60 0.79 120 -0.31 1.87 0.73 144 -0.49 2.03 0.69 168 -0.57 2.16 0.74 192 -0.74 2.54 0.62 216 -0.74 2.69 0.53 240 -0.59 2.82 0.43 264 -0.60 2.81 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.65 3.51 3.60 48 -0.31 -0.64 3.98 4.08 72 -0.37 -0.66 4.57 4.65 96 -0.68 5.13 120 -0.66 5.87 144 -0.68 6.88 168 -0.69 8.08 192 -0.90 8.71 216 -1.18 9.52 240 -1.23 9.85 264 -1.01 10.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.51 3.77 3.94 48 -0.50 -0.51 4.54 4.80 72 -0.48 -0.45 5.45 5.84 96 -0.69 6.80 120 -0.75 8.00 144 -0.56 9.76 168 -0.86 10.88 192 -0.70 12.13 216 -1.38 13.33 240 -1.29 14.14 264 -1.31 14.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.84 4.98 5.31 48 -0.83 -0.92 6.07 6.52 72 -0.95 -1.03 7.83 8.43 96 -1.10 9.89 120 -1.00 11.62 144 -1.01 13.85 168 -1.33 15.91 192 -0.73 19.94 216 -1.93 21.20 240 -1.23 21.94 264 -1.61 22.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.03 -0.82 9.24 8.59 0.68 0.68 48 -2.29 -0.71 9.59 8.90 0.77 0.78 72 -2.88 -1.30 10.15 9.31 0.79 0.81 96 -1.91 9.50 0.82 120 -2.66 9.95 0.82 144 -3.12 10.38 0.78 168 -3.36 11.09 0.76 192 -3.29 11.62 0.73 216 -3.92 12.23 0.68 240 -3.68 12.54 0.61 264 -2.58 12.26 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.04 -3.78 11.48 10.41 0.58 0.59 48 -5.81 -4.31 12.05 10.89 0.72 0.71 72 -7.04 -5.43 13.03 11.74 0.77 0.78 96 -6.75 12.51 0.78 120 -8.06 13.50 0.78 144 -9.09 14.42 0.75 168 -9.88 15.49 0.74 192 -10.48 16.36 0.72 216 -11.62 17.56 0.67 240 -11.89 17.76 0.61 264 -11.49 17.64 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.58 -5.50 13.01 12.19 0.70 0.70 48 -8.52 -8.41 14.89 14.29 0.82 0.81 72 -11.22 -11.17 17.25 16.62 0.84 0.84 96 -13.70 18.80 0.82 120 -16.40 21.37 0.81 144 -18.77 23.76 0.79 168 -20.48 25.79 0.78 192 -22.07 27.65 0.74 216 -24.42 30.33 0.69 240 -25.78 31.13 0.70 264 -25.96 32.09 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.48 1.01 1.02 0.39 0.43 48 -0.49 -0.51 1.04 1.07 0.51 0.50 72 -0.48 -0.51 1.03 1.09 0.57 0.53 96 -0.53 1.11 0.56 120 -0.53 1.13 0.57 144 -0.54 1.18 0.54 168 -0.55 1.22 0.54 192 -0.59 1.27 0.49 216 -0.62 1.28 0.52 240 -0.62 1.30 0.50 264 -0.67 1.36 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.14 0.72 0.70 0.57 0.58 48 0.10 0.08 0.76 0.73 0.62 0.66 72 0.07 0.04 0.81 0.75 0.63 0.70 96 -0.01 0.80 0.68 120 -0.06 0.85 0.66 144 -0.11 0.90 0.64 168 -0.16 0.94 0.63 192 -0.21 0.99 0.61 216 -0.27 1.04 0.58 240 -0.31 1.06 0.58 264 -0.34 1.09 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.39 0.64 0.66 0.64 0.65 48 -0.53 -0.61 0.81 0.84 0.69 0.71 72 -0.61 -0.70 0.89 0.93 0.71 0.74 96 -0.76 1.01 0.74 120 -0.86 1.11 0.71 144 -0.94 1.21 0.70 168 -0.99 1.27 0.66 192 -1.04 1.32 0.65 216 -1.09 1.38 0.61 240 -1.16 1.45 0.57 264 -1.22 1.54 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.38 3.02 3.08 48 -0.27 -0.39 3.28 3.30 72 -0.24 -0.35 3.51 3.52 96 -0.35 3.66 120 -0.42 3.86 144 -0.52 4.00 168 -0.50 4.17 192 -0.48 4.37 216 -0.48 4.54 240 -0.46 4.67 264 -0.55 4.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.80 3.29 3.28 48 -0.98 -0.94 3.60 3.54 72 -1.01 -0.97 3.83 3.79 96 -0.99 4.04 120 -0.93 4.34 144 -0.99 4.63 168 -1.06 4.87 192 -1.04 5.26 216 -1.02 5.57 240 -0.96 5.78 264 -0.98 5.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.02 -1.07 4.21 4.29 48 -1.15 -1.21 4.97 5.01 72 -1.30 -1.28 5.59 5.63 96 -1.32 6.15 120 -1.34 6.66 144 -1.40 7.19 168 -1.50 7.73 192 -1.47 8.28 216 -1.48 8.86 240 -1.29 9.36 264 -1.43 9.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.73 -1.25 10.43 10.20 0.98 0.98 48 -2.45 -2.22 13.36 13.53 0.98 0.98 72 -2.87 -2.57 17.82 17.93 0.97 0.97 96 -2.78 24.17 0.95 120 -3.05 32.06 0.91 144 -4.29 41.72 0.86 168 -4.28 51.57 0.80 192 -2.96 58.77 0.75 216 -0.79 63.89 0.70 240 -1.86 69.35 0.67 264 -3.03 70.47 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 368 12 UTC = 363 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.80 -3.03 11.82 11.92 0.98 0.98 48 -4.23 -4.03 16.34 17.13 0.98 0.98 72 -4.65 -4.19 23.52 24.31 0.97 0.97 96 -4.18 33.41 0.95 120 -3.67 44.00 0.92 144 -5.08 58.58 0.87 168 -5.48 73.50 0.81 192 -4.10 85.80 0.75 216 -1.26 93.97 0.70 240 -1.94 102.61 0.66 264 -3.32 107.05 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 385 12 UTC = 377 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.32 -4.57 17.35 17.54 0.98 0.98 48 -7.52 -6.40 23.32 24.03 0.98 0.98 72 -8.57 -6.86 31.97 32.98 0.97 0.97 96 -6.63 45.05 0.96 120 -5.87 59.69 0.93 144 -7.25 77.88 0.88 168 -9.57 98.31 0.83 192 -8.20 116.79 0.76 216 -4.60 129.87 0.71 240 -2.51 141.47 0.67 264 -3.27 149.19 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 383 12 UTC = 376 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.42 1.56 1.62 0.92 0.92 48 -0.44 -0.45 1.80 1.87 0.93 0.93 72 -0.44 -0.47 2.12 2.20 0.93 0.92 96 -0.49 2.62 0.90 120 -0.48 3.10 0.87 144 -0.47 3.58 0.83 168 -0.42 4.18 0.78 192 -0.32 4.74 0.73 216 -0.25 5.15 0.68 240 -0.25 5.47 0.63 264 -0.27 5.77 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 399 12 UTC = 389 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.01 0.92 0.92 0.95 0.95 48 -0.03 -0.01 1.14 1.13 0.95 0.96 72 -0.03 0.00 1.44 1.47 0.94 0.94 96 0.03 1.91 0.91 120 0.07 2.36 0.88 144 0.06 2.90 0.83 168 -0.03 3.49 0.77 192 -0.04 3.97 0.71 216 0.00 4.35 0.66 240 0.07 4.56 0.63 264 0.09 4.77 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 430 12 UTC = 418 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.08 1.19 1.17 0.92 0.92 48 -0.04 0.02 1.47 1.45 0.92 0.92 72 -0.10 0.00 1.80 1.77 0.90 0.90 96 -0.02 2.19 0.86 120 0.00 2.57 0.82 144 0.01 3.02 0.75 168 -0.03 3.35 0.70 192 -0.08 3.64 0.65 216 -0.07 3.86 0.61 240 0.05 4.04 0.59 264 0.08 4.11 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 426 12 UTC = 414 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.76 3.89 3.87 48 -0.81 -0.80 4.36 4.35 72 -0.85 -0.83 5.06 5.10 96 -0.81 6.06 120 -0.77 7.07 144 -0.83 8.16 168 -0.88 9.31 192 -0.87 9.98 216 -0.86 10.47 240 -0.75 10.87 264 -0.64 10.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 379 12 UTC = 371 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.58 4.22 4.26 48 -0.70 -0.67 5.28 5.33 72 -0.77 -0.77 6.57 6.74 96 -0.80 8.26 120 -0.81 9.88 144 -0.84 11.75 168 -0.96 13.39 192 -1.01 14.62 216 -1.13 15.51 240 -0.86 16.36 264 -0.74 16.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 411 12 UTC = 402 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.64 5.56 5.64 48 -0.96 -0.85 7.19 7.14 72 -1.08 -1.00 8.92 9.02 96 -1.13 11.28 120 -1.20 13.72 144 -1.23 16.18 168 -1.31 18.79 192 -1.28 20.87 216 -1.48 22.30 240 -1.15 23.79 264 -1.06 24.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 407 12 UTC = 399 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.85 -1.66 8.66 8.32 0.98 0.97 48 -1.86 -1.43 10.82 11.26 0.97 0.97 72 -1.00 -0.80 14.01 15.40 0.96 0.96 96 -1.32 20.34 0.95 120 -2.50 27.38 0.90 144 -1.87 32.09 0.86 168 -1.97 37.10 0.81 192 -5.23 43.26 0.75 216 -7.15 47.27 0.68 240 -4.73 51.23 0.66 264 0.29 53.43 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.99 -8.01 11.89 13.34 0.98 0.98 48 -7.91 -8.74 16.24 17.85 0.98 0.98 72 -7.50 -8.62 20.71 23.82 0.97 0.97 96 -8.62 32.00 0.95 120 -11.02 41.02 0.91 144 -11.46 48.59 0.87 168 -13.74 57.50 0.84 192 -17.05 68.04 0.78 216 -19.75 78.27 0.65 240 -18.23 81.96 0.61 264 -11.54 87.40 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.04 -6.57 14.45 17.31 0.99 0.98 48 -7.69 -9.05 20.98 25.29 0.98 0.98 72 -8.40 -9.72 28.82 35.08 0.97 0.97 96 -10.13 47.69 0.94 120 -15.46 60.04 0.92 144 -16.80 69.31 0.89 168 -20.47 83.24 0.86 192 -23.19 101.21 0.78 216 -28.79 119.02 0.65 240 -28.28 125.08 0.62 264 -19.89 134.98 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.87 1.56 1.69 0.88 0.88 48 -0.68 -0.93 1.72 1.79 0.91 0.91 72 -0.69 -0.96 1.87 2.02 0.92 0.91 96 -0.99 2.29 0.89 120 -1.08 2.64 0.85 144 -1.20 2.98 0.81 168 -1.29 3.39 0.78 192 -1.30 3.79 0.70 216 -1.36 4.16 0.64 240 -1.34 4.32 0.62 264 -1.27 4.64 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.03 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 48 0.09 0.00 1.13 1.22 0.93 0.94 72 0.09 -0.01 1.37 1.56 0.92 0.91 96 0.03 1.90 0.88 120 -0.11 2.20 0.85 144 -0.12 2.50 0.82 168 -0.18 2.81 0.81 192 -0.14 3.13 0.74 216 -0.20 3.56 0.64 240 -0.38 3.83 0.59 264 -0.21 4.01 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 1.02 1.05 0.92 0.91 48 -0.11 -0.18 1.29 1.34 0.91 0.91 72 -0.19 -0.28 1.56 1.66 0.88 0.87 96 -0.35 2.00 0.84 120 -0.36 2.24 0.81 144 -0.49 2.45 0.78 168 -0.64 2.81 0.74 192 -0.71 2.98 0.72 216 -0.80 3.24 0.68 240 -0.66 3.40 0.61 264 -0.68 3.41 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.80 4.01 4.16 48 -0.56 -0.87 4.47 4.70 72 -0.53 -0.82 5.10 5.27 96 -0.75 5.99 120 -0.81 7.01 144 -0.71 7.57 168 -0.65 8.47 192 -0.55 9.32 216 -0.48 9.80 240 -0.28 10.45 264 -0.58 10.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.59 4.04 4.44 48 -0.49 -0.69 4.94 5.49 72 -0.43 -0.62 6.22 6.87 96 -0.65 8.40 120 -0.72 9.62 144 -0.77 10.80 168 -0.58 11.78 192 -0.12 13.36 216 0.17 14.50 240 0.03 15.36 264 -0.09 15.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2019 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.49 5.23 5.86 48 -0.62 -0.64 6.59 7.48 72 -0.74 -0.74 8.85 10.03 96 -0.88 12.12 120 -0.56 14.44 144 -0.75 16.06 168 -0.68 18.75 192 -0.31 21.39 216 0.39 23.09 240 0.35 24.32 264 0.10 24.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 40 ---------------------------------------------------------